全球变暖对中国区域积雪变化影响的数值模拟   总被引：9，自引：7，他引：2  

石英  高学杰  吴佳  Filippo Giorgi  董文杰 《冰川冻土》2010,32(2)

对20km高水平分辨率区域气候模式(RegCM3)所模拟的全球变暖背景下,中国区域未来积雪变化进行了分析.检验了模式对当代(1961-1990年)积雪日数、积雪量、积雪开始和结束时间的模拟,结果表明:与观测相比,模式对这些变量均有较好的模拟能力,但模拟的积雪日数和积雪量偏多,积雪开始时间偏早,结束日期偏晚.21世纪末(2071-2100年)在IPCC SRES A2温室气体排放情景下,中国大部分地区积雪日数和积雪量将减少;积雪开始时间推后,结束时间提前,但在各个地区表现也有所不同,并在个别地区出现相反的变化.将中国区域分为东北、西北、青藏高原3个分区,结果显示:各分区平均积雪量均为减少,积雪开始时间推后,而积雪结束时间则都将提前,其中,青藏高原地区的变化最为显著.  相似文献   

Simulation of the Indian monsoon using the RegCM3–ROMS regional coupled model     

J. Venkata Ratnam  Filippo Giorgi  Akshara Kaginalkar  Stefano Cozzini 《Climate Dynamics》2009,33(1):119-139

A regional coupled atmosphere–ocean model was developed to study the role of air–sea interactions in the simulation of the Indian summer monsoon. The coupled model includes the regional climate model (RegCM3) as atmospheric component and the regional ocean modeling system (ROMS) as oceanic component. The two-way coupled model system exchanges sea surface temperature (SST) from the ocean to the atmospheric model and surface wind stress and energy fluxes from the atmosphere to the ocean model. The coupled model is run for four years 1997, 1998, 2002 and 2003 and the results are compared with observations and atmosphere-only model runs employing Reynolds SSTs as lower boundary condition. It is found that the coupled model captures the main features of the Indian monsoon and simulates a substantially more realistic spatial and temporal distribution of monsoon rainfall compared to the uncoupled atmosphere-only model. The intraseasonal oscillations are also better simulated in the coupled model compared to the atmosphere-only model. These improvements are due to a better representation of the feedbacks between the SST and convection and highlight the importance of air–sea coupling in the simulation of the Indian monsoon.  相似文献   

Changes in European temperature extremes can be predicted from changes in PDF central statistics   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Joan Ballester  Filippo Giorgi  Xavier Rodó 《Climatic change》2010,98(1-2):277-284

Although uncertainties are still large, many potentially dangerous effects have already been identified concerning the impacts of global warming on human societies. For example, the record-breaking 2003 summer heat wave in Europe has given a glimpse of possible future European climate conditions. Here we use an ensemble of regional climate simulations for the end of the twentieth and twenty-first centuries over Europe to show that frequency, length and intensity changes in warm and cold temperature extremes can be derived to a close approximation from the knowledge of changes in three central statistics, the mean, standard deviation and skewness of the Probability Distribution Function, for which current climate models are better suited. In particular, the effect of the skewness parameter appears to be crucial, especially in the case of cold extremes, since it mostly explains the relative warming of these events compared to the whole distribution. An application of this finding is that the future impacts of extreme heat waves and cold spells on non-climatological variables (e.g., mortality) can be estimated to a first-order approximation from observed time series of daily temperature transformed in order to account for simulated changes in these three statistics.  相似文献   

An atmosphere–ocean regional climate model for the Mediterranean area: assessment of a present climate simulation     

Vincenzo Artale  Sandro Calmanti  Adriana Carillo  Alessandro Dell’Aquila  Marine Herrmann  Giovanna Pisacane  Paolo M. Ruti  Gianmaria Sannino  Maria Vittoria Struglia  Filippo Giorgi  Xunqiang Bi  Jeremy S. Pal  Sara Rauscher 《Climate Dynamics》2010,35(5):721-740

We present an atmosphere–ocean regional climate model for the Mediterranean basin, called the PROTHEUS system, composed by the regional climate model RegCM3 as the atmospheric component and by a regional configuration of the MITgcm model as the oceanic component. The model is applied to an area encompassing the Mediterranean Sea and compared to a stand-alone version of its atmospheric component. An assessment of the model performances is done by using available observational datasets. Despite a persistent bias, the PROTHEUS system is able to capture the inter-annual variability of seasonal sea surface temperature (SST) and also the fine scale spatio-temporal evolution of observed SST anomalies, with spatial correlation as high as 0.7 during summer. The close inspection of a 10-day strong wind event during the summer of 2000 proves the capability of the PROTHEUS system to correctly describe the daily evolution of SST under strong air–sea interaction conditions. As a consequence of the model’s skill in reproducing observed SST and wind fields, we expect a reliable estimation of air–sea fluxes. The model skill in reproducing climatological land surface fields is in line with that of state of the art regional climate models.  相似文献   

温室效应引起的中国区域气候变化的数值模拟II:中国区域气候的可能变化   总被引：32，自引：3，他引：29  

高学杰  赵宗慈  丁一汇  黄荣辉  Filippo Giorgi 《气象学报》2003,61(1):29-38

使用RegCM2区域气候模式单向嵌套澳大利亚CSIRO R21L9全球海-气耦合模式,进行了温室气体CO2加倍对中国气候变化影响的数值试验研究.该文为第2部分,对敏感性试验结果进行的分析.分析表明由于温室效应,中国区域的地面气温特别是在冬季和北方将有明显升高,区域年平均的升高值为2.5℃;同时区域内日最高和最低气温将明显上升,日较差将减小.结果还表明,在CO2倍增条件下,中国区域降水将呈增加趋势,区域年平均的增加值为12%;以夏季的增加率最大,其次为冬季.中国汛期降水将呈现出"三类雨型"出现频率增多的趋势.南方的大雨日数将有所增加.此外,生成和影响中国的台风数目也将有所增加.温室气体的增加同时对环流场产生影响,如导致500 hPa高度场的升高.  相似文献   

Peralkaline syenite autoliths from Kilombe volcano, Kenya Rift Valley: Evidence for subvolcanic interaction with carbonatitic fluids     

Filippo Ridolfi  Alberto Renzulli  Ray Macdonald  Brian G.J. Upton 《Lithos》2006,91(1-4):373-392

Mineral chemistry, textures and geochemistry of syenite autoliths from Kilombe volcano indicate that they crystallized in the upper parts of a magma chamber from peralkaline trachytic magmas that compositionally straddle the alkali feldspar join in the “residuum system” (ne = 0–1.03; qz = 0–0.77). Mineral reaction and/or overgrowth processes were responsible for the replacement of (i) Mg–hedenbergite by aegirine–augite, Ca–aegirine and/or aegirine, (ii) fayalite by amphiboles, and (iii) magnetite by aenigmatite. Ti–magnetite in silica-saturated syenites generally shows ilmenite exsolution, partly promoted by circulating fluids.

By contrast, the Fe–Ti oxides in the silica-undersaturated (sodalite-bearing) syenites show no signs of deuteric alteration. These syenites were ejected shortly after completion of crystallization. Ilmenite–magnetite equilibria indicate fO₂ between − 19.5 and − 23.1 log units (T 679–578 °C), slightly below the FMQ buffer. The subsequent crystallization of aenigmatite and Na-rich pyroxenes suggests an increase in the oxidation state of the late-magmatic liquids and implies the influence of post-magmatic fluids.

Irrespective of silica saturation, the syenites can be divided into (1) “normal” syenites, characterized by Ce/Ce ratios between 0.83 and 0.99 and (2) Ce-anomalous syenites, showing distinct negative Ce-anomalies (Ce/Ce 0.77–0.24). “Normal” silica-saturated syenites evolved towards pantelleritic trachyte. The Ce-anomalous syenites are relatively depleted in Zr, Hf, Th, Nb and Ta but, with the exception of Ce, are significantly enriched in REE.

The silica-saturated syenites contain REE–fluorcarbonates (synchysite-bastnaesite series) with negative Ce-anomalies (Ce/Ce 0.4–0.8, mean 0.6), corroded monazite group minerals with LREE-rich patches, and hydrated, Fe- and P-rich phyllosilicates. Each of these is inferred to be of non-magmatic origin. Fractures in feldspars and pyroxenes contain Pb-, REE- and Mn-rich cryptocrystalline or amorphous material. The monazite minerals are characterized by the most prominent negative Ce-anomalies (Ce/Ce_mean = 0.5), and in the most altered and Ca-rich areas (depleted in REE), Ce/Ce is less than 0.2.

It is inferred that carbonatitic fluids rich in F, Na and lanthanides but depleted in Ce by fractional crystallization of cerian pyrochlore, percolated into the subvolcanic system and interacted with the syenites at the thermal boundary layers of the magma chamber, during and shortly after their crystallization.

Chevkinite–(Ce), pyrochlore, monazite and synchysite-bastnaesite, occurring as accessory minerals, have been found for the first time at Kilombe together with eudialyte, nacareniobsite–(Ce) and thorite. These latter represent new mineral occurrences in Kenya.  相似文献   

Review of Microgravity Observations at Mt. Etna: A Powerful Tool to Monitor and Study Active Volcanoes     

Daniele Carbone  Filippo Greco 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2007,164(4):769-790

Microgravity observations at Mt. Etna have been routinely performed as both discrete (since 1986) and continuous (since 1998) measurements. In addition to describing the methodology for acquiring and reducing gravity data from Mt. Etna, this paper provides a collection of case studies aimed at demonstrating the potential of microgravity to investigate the plumbing system of an active volcano and detect forerunners to paroxysmal volcanic events. For discrete gravity measurements, results from 1994–1996 and 2001 are reported. During the first period, the observed gravity changes are interpreted within the framework of the Strombolian activity which occurred from the summit craters. Gravity changes observed during the first nine months of 2001 are directly related to subsurface mass redistributions which preceded, accompanied and followed the July-August 2001 flank eruption of Mt. Etna. Two continuous gravity records are discussed: a 16-month (October 1998 to February 2000) sequence and a 48-hour (26–28 October, 2002) sequence, both from a station within a few kilometers of the volcano's summit. The 16-month record may be the longest continuous gravity sequence ever acquired at a station very close to the summit zone of an active volcano. By cross analyzing it with contemporaneous discrete observations along a summit profile of stations, both the geometry of a buried source and its time evolution can be investigated. The shorter continuous sequence encompasses the onset of an eruption from a location only 1.5 km from the gravity station. This gravity record is useful for establishing constraints on the characteristics of the intrusive mechanism leading to the eruption. In particular, the observed gravity anomaly indicates that the magma intrusion occurred “passively” within a fracture system opened by external forces.  相似文献   

An inter-comparison of regional climate models for Europe: model performance in present-day climate   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

Daniela Jacob  Lars Bärring  Ole Bøssing Christensen  Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen  Manuel de Castro  Michel Déqué  Filippo Giorgi  Stefan Hagemann  Martin Hirschi  Richard Jones  Erik Kjellström  Geert Lenderink  Burkhardt Rockel  Enrique Sánchez  Christoph Schär  Sonia I. Seneviratne  Samuel Somot  Aad van Ulden  Bart van den Hurk 《Climatic change》2007,81(1):31-52

The analysis of possible regional climate changes over Europe as simulated by 10 regional climate models within the context of PRUDENCE requires a careful investigation of possible systematic biases in the models. The purpose of this paper is to identify how the main model systematic biases vary across the different models. Two fundamental aspects of model validation are addressed here: the ability to simulate (1) the long-term (30 or 40 years) mean climate and (2) the inter-annual variability. The analysis concentrates on near-surface air temperature and precipitation over land and focuses mainly on winter and summer. In general, there is a warm bias with respect to the CRU data set in these extreme seasons and a tendency to cold biases in the transition seasons. In winter the typical spread (standard deviation) between the models is 1 K. During summer there is generally a better agreement between observed and simulated values of inter-annual variability although there is a relatively clear signal that the modeled temperature variability is larger than suggested by observations, while precipitation variability is closer to observations. The areas with warm (cold) bias in winter generally exhibit wet (dry) biases, whereas the relationship is the reverse during summer (though much less clear, coupling warm (cold) biases with dry (wet) ones). When comparing the RCMs with their driving GCM, they generally reproduce the large-scale circulation of the GCM though in some cases there are substantial differences between regional biases in surface temperature and precipitation.  相似文献   

Climate Change Prediction   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

Filippo?GiorgiEmail author 《Climatic change》2005,73(3):239-265

The concept of climate change prediction in response to anthropogenic forcings at multi-decadal time scales is reviewed. This is identified as a predictability problem with characteristics of both first kind and second kind (due to the slow components of the climate system). It is argued that, because of the non-linear and stochastic aspects of the climate system and of the anthropogenic and natural forcings, climate change contains an intrinsic level of uncertainty. As a result, climate change prediction needs to be approached in a probabilistic way. This requires a characterization and quantification of the uncertainties associated with the sequence of steps involved in a climate change prediction. A review is presented of different approaches recently proposed to produce probabilistic climate change predictions. The additional difficulties found when extending the prediction from the global to the regional scale and the implications that these have on the choice of prediction strategy are finally discussed.  相似文献   

东亚区域极端气候事件变化的数值模拟试验   总被引：62，自引：0，他引：62  

Gao Xuejie  Zhao Zongci  Filippo Giorgi 《大气科学进展》2002,19(5):927-942

使用ResCM2区域气候模式,嵌套澳大利亚CSIRO R21L9全球海气耦合模式,进行了温室效应（二氧化碳加倍）对东亚（主要是中国区域）极端气候事件影响的数值试验。控制试验的结果表明,区域模式能够较好地模拟中国区域的极端气候事件。对温室效应引起的它们的变化进行了信度检验,分析结果表明,温室效应将引起日最高和最低气温增加,日较差减小;使得高温天气增多,低温日数减少。降水日数和大雨日数在一些地区将增加。同时还会引起影响中国的台风活动的变化。  相似文献