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Florent Renaud Michel Warnau François Oberhänsli Jean-Louis Teyssié Ali Temara Claude Rouleau Marc Metian 《Marine pollution bulletin》2014
Uptake and depuration kinetics of dissolved [14C]C12-6-linear alkylbenzene sulfonate (LAS) were determined in the shrimp Palaemonetes varians using environmentally relevant exposure concentration. The shrimp concentrated LAS from seawater with a mean BCF value of 120 L kg−1 after a 7-day exposure. Uptake biokinetics were best described by a saturation model, with an estimated BCFss, of 159 ± 34 L kg−1, reached after 11.5 days. Shrimp weight influenced significantly BCF value with smaller individuals presenting higher affinity to LAS. To the light of a whole body autoradiography, major accumulation of LAS occurred in the cephalothorax circulatory system (gills, heart, hepatopancreas) and ocular peduncle, but not in the flesh, limiting potential transfer to human consumers. LAS depuration rate constant value of the shrimp was 1.18 ± 0.08 d−1 leading to less than 1% of remaining LAS in its tissues after 8 days of depuration. 相似文献
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Projecting future drought in Mediterranean forests: bias correction of climate models matters! 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Julien Ruffault Nicolas K Martin-StPaul Carole Duffet Fabien Goge Florent Mouillot 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2014,117(1-2):113-122
Global and regional climate models (GCM and RCM) are generally biased and cannot be used as forcing variables in ecological impact models without some form of prior bias correction. In this study, we investigated the influence of the bias correction method on drought projections in Mediterranean forests in southern France for the end of the twenty-first century (2071–2100). We used a water balance model with two different atmospheric climate forcings built from the same RCM simulations but using two different correction methods (quantile mapping or anomaly method). Drought, defined here as periods when vegetation functioning is affected by water deficit, was described in terms of intensity, duration and timing. Our results showed that the choice of the bias correction method had little effects on temperature and global radiation projections. However, although both methods led to similar predictions of precipitation amount, they induced strong differences in their temporal distribution, especially during summer. These differences were amplified when the climatic data were used to force the water balance model. On average, the choice of bias correction leads to 45 % uncertainty in the predicted anomalies in drought intensity along with discrepancies in the spatial pattern of the predicted changes and changes in the year-to-year variability in drought characteristics. We conclude that the choice of a bias correction method might have a significant impact on the projections of forest response to climate change. 相似文献
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Florent BRIENT 《大气科学进展》2020,37(1):1-15
Models disagree on a significant number of responses to climate change,such as climate feedback,regional changes,or the strength of equilibrium climate sensitivity.Emergent constraints aim to reduce these uncertainties by finding links between the inter-model spread in an observable predictor and climate projections.In this paper,the concepts underlying this framework are recalled with an emphasis on the statistical inference used for narrowing uncertainties,and a review of emergent constraints found in the last two decades.Potential links between highlighted predictors are explored,especially those targeting uncertainty reductions in climate sensitivity,cloud feedback,and changes of the hydrological cycle.Yet the disagreement across emergent constraints suggests that the spread in climate sensitivity can not be significantly narrowed.This calls for weighting the realism of emergent constraints by quantifying the level of physical understanding explaining the relationship.This would also permit more efficient model evaluation and better targeted model development.In the context of the upcoming CMIP6 model intercomparison a growing number of new predictors and uncertainty reductions is expected,which call for robust statistical inferences that allow cross-validation of more likely estimates. 相似文献
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The several reactivations of the landslide of Ain El Hammam (AEH) after each important weather event compel us to look closely at its triggering factors and predict its mechanisms and its evolution at the longer term. In this sense, the prediction of the slope behavior becomes necessary. This paper presents a numerical model of the AEH landslide using Plaxis® software. This model considers hydraulic effects such as precipitation and pore pressure even in the unsaturated parts. Soil and rock behaviors are described with proper elasto-plastic models named Hardening Soils and Jointed Rocks. The first model takes into account hardening on isotropic and deviatoric mechanism as well as a non-associated flow rule. The second model considers a non-isotropic elasticity with perfect plasticity along with given sliding directions. The hydraulic and mechanical models are coupled with an effective stress concept. To detect unstable areas in the landslide, we developed a Matlab® program to take into account the Hill’s bifurcation criterion, which is based on sign of the second-order work. It has been proved that this criterion allows detecting all failure modes that can appear in rate-independent materials and especially the ones that develop before the plasticity limit criterion. From such computations, we can predict the shape and position of slip surface responsible of the actual ground movement of the slope. To validate the numerical results, analysis of field measurement is included. We use high resolution of electrical tomography to delineate the geometry and position of failure surface and approve our results. 相似文献
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Florent Gimbert Brian M. Fuller Michael P. Lamb Victor C. Tsai Joel P. L. Johnson 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2019,44(1):219-241
Recent advances in fluvial seismology have provided solid observational and theoretical evidence that near-river seismic ground motion may be used to monitor and quantify coarse sediment transport. However, inversions of sediment transport rates from seismic observations have not been fully tested against independent measurements, and thus have unknown but potentially large uncertainties. In the present study, we provide the first robust test of existing theory by conducting dedicated sediment transport experiments in a flume laboratory under fully turbulent and rough flow conditions. We monitor grain-scale physics with the use of ‘smart rocks’ that consist of accelerometers embedded into manufactured rocks, and we quantitatively link bedload mechanics and seismic observations under various prescribed flow and sediment transport conditions. From our grain-scale observations, we find that bedload grain hop times are widely distributed, with impacts being on average much more frequent than predicted by existing saltation models. Impact velocities are observed to be a linear function of average downstream cobble velocities, and both velocities show a bed-slope dependency that is not represented in existing saltation models. Incorporating these effects in an improved bedload-induced seismic noise model allows sediment flux to be inverted from seismic noise within a factor of two uncertainty. This result holds over nearly two orders of magnitude of prescribed sediment fluxes with different sediment sizes and channel-bed slopes, and particle–particle collisions observed at the highest investigated rates are found to have negligible effect on the generated seismic power. These results support the applicability of the seismic-inversion framework to mountain rivers, although further experiments remain to be conducted at sediment transport near transport capacity. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献