Analysis of climatic trends in data from the agrometeorological station of Bologna-Cadriano, Italy (1952–2007)     

Philipp Matzneller  Francesca Ventura  Nicola Gaspari  Paola Rossi Pisa 《Climatic change》2010,100(3-4):717-731

Agriculture is highly exposed to climate change, as farming activities directly depend on climatic conditions. Knowledge of the extent of such change and of related phenomena will help to answer the questions posed by society about adaptation strategies. The global situation is well described by the Fourth IPCC assessment report (IPCC 2007), but local studies are important to understand the impact and the priorities to adopt in adaptation strategies. In this study a historical set of meteorological data, collected during the period 1952–2007 at the University of Bologna (Italy) agrometeorological station, was analysed. Several indexes, such as Frost Severity Index, number of hot days, number of rainy days, etc., were calculated, and their trends in time were analysed. The results show a scenario of increasing temperatures and evapotranspiration, a decrease in rainy days and a deepening of the watertable. The effect of these changes on agriculture will be a decrease in water availability, an increase in heat stress in plants and an increase in drought risk.  相似文献   

Spectral properties and composition of potentially hazardous Asteroid (99942) Apophis     

Richard P. Binzel  Andrew S. Rivkin  Cristina A. Thomas  Pierre Vernazza  Thomas H. Burbine  Francesca E. DeMeo  Schelte J. Bus  Alan T. Tokunaga  Mirel Birlan 《Icarus》2009,200(2):480-485

The known close approach of Asteroid (99942) Apophis in April 2029 provides the opportunity for the case study of a potentially hazardous asteroid in advance of its encounter. The visible to near-infrared (0.55 to 2.45 μm) reflectance spectrum of Apophis is compared and modeled with respect to the spectral and mineralogical characteristics of likely meteorite analogs. Apophis is found to be an Sq-class asteroid that most closely resembles LL ordinary chondrite meteorites in terms of spectral characteristics and interpreted olivine and pyroxene abundances, although we cannot rule out some degree of partial melting. A meteorite analog allows some estimates and conjectures of Apophis' possible range of physical properties such as the grain density and micro-porosity of its constituent material. Composition and size similarities of Apophis with (25143) Itokawa suggest a total porosity of 40% as a “current best guess” for Apophis. Applying these parameters to Apophis yields a mass estimate of 2×¹⁰¹⁰ kg with a corresponding energy estimate of 375 Mt for its potential hazard. Substantial unknowns, most notably the total porosity, allow uncertainties in these mass and energy estimates to be as large as factors of two or three.  相似文献   

The Huygens scientific data archive: Technical overview     

Olivier Witasse  Lyle Huber  Jean-Pierre Lebreton  David Heather  John Zarnecki  Roland Trautner  Piero Leon Stoppato  Chuck See  Cyril Pennanech  Lisa McFarlane  Bobby Kazeminejad  Brijen Hathi  John Haberman  Francesca Ferri  Lyn Doose  Giacomo Colombatti  Michael Bird  Alessio Aboudan 《Planetary and Space Science》2008,56(5):770-777

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Did the “Autochthonous” European foreland of Corsica Island (France) experience Alpine subduction?     

Maria Di Rosa  Chiara Frassi  Michele Marroni  Francesca Meneghini  Luca Pandolfi 《地学学报》2020,32(1):34-43

Despite the important role played by the Sardinia‐Corsica block in the reconstruction of the Western Mediterranean geodynamics, the extent of involvement of the “Autochthonous” European margin exposed in Corsica (France) (i.e., Hercynian Corsica) in the Alpine orogeny remains uncertain. Stratigraphic and sedimentological studies in the post‐Variscan deposits on the Hercynian Corsica are scarce and even scarcer are the structural and metamorphic constraints. To face these uncertainties, we present new stratigraphic, structural and metamorphic data from the area of Razzo Bianco, Central Corsica, where a complete sequence belonging to the European continental margin is exposed. Field and structural investigations demonstrate that the sequence represents the easternmost edge of the downgoing European plate. Metamorphic studies on the Eocene deposits indicate that the margin was buried at depth up to blueschist facies conditions and, subsequently, it was progressively exhumed mainly through the activation of oblique top‐to‐the NW shear zones.  相似文献   

Interannual variability in glacier contribution to runoff from a high‐elevation Andean catchment: understanding the role of debris cover in glacier hydrology     

Flavia Burger  Alvaro Ayala  David Farias  Thomas E. Shaw  Shelley MacDonell  Ben Brock  James McPhee  Francesca Pellicciotti 《水文研究》2019,33(2):214-229

We present a field‐data rich modelling analysis to reconstruct the climatic forcing, glacier response, and runoff generation from a high‐elevation catchment in central Chile over the period 2000–2015 to provide insights into the differing contributions of debris‐covered and debris‐free glaciers under current and future changing climatic conditions. Model simulations with the physically based glacio‐hydrological model TOPKAPI‐ETH reveal a period of neutral or slightly positive mass balance between 2000 and 2010, followed by a transition to increasingly large annual mass losses, associated with a recent mega drought. Mass losses commence earlier, and are more severe, for a heavily debris‐covered glacier, most likely due to its strong dependence on snow avalanche accumulation, which has declined in recent years. Catchment runoff shows a marked decreasing trend over the study period, but with high interannual variability directly linked to winter snow accumulation, and high contribution from ice melt in dry periods and drought conditions. The study demonstrates the importance of incorporating local‐scale processes such as snow avalanche accumulation and spatially variable debris thickness, in understanding the responses of different glacier types to climate change. We highlight the increased dependency of runoff from high Andean catchments on the diminishing resource of glacier ice during dry years.  相似文献   

Changes in the rainfall–streamflow regimes related to climate change in a small catchment in Northern Italy     

Pieri  Linda  Rondini  Davide  Ventura  Francesca 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2017,129(3-4):1075-1087

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - Climate change has become an important issue for scientific community, for its numerous impacts, especially on agriculture and environment. To shed light on...  相似文献   

Distributions-oriented wind forecast verification by a hidden Markov model for multivariate circular–linear data     

Gianluca?MastrantonioEmail authorView author&#;s OrcID profile  Alessio?Pollice  Francesca?Fedele 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2018,32(1):169-181

Winds from the North–West quadrant and lack of precipitation are known to lead to an increase of PM10 concentrations over a residential neighborhood in the city of Taranto (Italy). In 2012 the local government prescribed a reduction of industrial emissions by 10% every time such meteorological conditions are forecasted 72 h in advance. Wind forecasting is addressed using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) atmospheric simulation system by the Regional Environmental Protection Agency. In the context of distributions-oriented forecast verification, we propose a comprehensive model-based inferential approach to investigate the ability of the WRF system to forecast the local wind speed and direction allowing different performances for unknown weather regimes. Ground-observed and WRF-forecasted wind speed and direction at a relevant location are jointly modeled as a 4-dimensional time series with an unknown finite number of states characterized by homogeneous distributional behavior. The proposed model relies on a mixture of joint projected and skew normal distributions with time-dependent states, where the temporal evolution of the state membership follows a first order Markov process. Parameter estimates, including the number of states, are obtained by a Bayesian MCMC-based method. Results provide useful insights on the performance of WRF forecasts in relation to different combinations of wind speed and direction.  相似文献   

Formation events of shoreline sand waves on a gravel beach     

Jaime Arriaga  Albert Falqués  Francesca Ribas  Eddie Crews 《Ocean Dynamics》2018,68(6):735-748

Kilometric-scale shoreline sand waves (KSSW) have been observed in the north-east flank of the Dungeness Cuspate Foreland (southeastern coast of the UK). They consist of two bumps separated by embayments with a 350–450-m spacing. We have analysed 36 shoreline surveys of 2-km length using the Discrete Fourier Transformation (DFT), from 2005 to 2016, and seven topographic surveys encompassing the intertidal zone, from 2010 to 2016. The data set shows two clear formation events. In order to test the role of high-angle waves on the KSSW formation, the 10-year wave series is propagated from the wave buoy located at 43 m depth up to a location in front of the undulations at 4 m depth using the SWAN wave model. The dominating SW waves arrive with a very high incidence angle (～ 80°) while the NE waves arrive almost shore normal. The ratio R, which measures the degree of dominance of high-angle waves with respect to low-angle waves, correlates well with the shoreline DFT magnitude values of the observed wavelength undulations. In particular, the highest R values coincide with the formation events. Finally, a linear stability model based on the one-line approximation is applied to the Dungeness profile and the 10-year propagated wave series. It predicts accurately the formation moments, with positive growth rates in the correct order of magnitude for wavelengths similar to the observed ones. All these results confirm that the shoreline undulations in Dungeness are self-organized and that the underlying formation mechanism is the high-angle wave instability. The two detected formation events provide a unique opportunity to validate the existing morphodynamic models that include such instability.  相似文献   

Multi-scale morphological descriptors from the fractal analysis of particle contour     

Guida  Giulia  Viggiani  Giulia M. B.  Casini  Francesca 《Acta Geotechnica》2020,15(5):1067-1080

Acta Geotechnica - The increasing understanding of the connection between particle morphology and mechanical behaviour of granular materials has generated significant research on the quantitative...  相似文献   

Digital mapping of coastal boulders – high-resolution data acquisition to infer past and recent transport dynamics     

Fabian Boesl  Max Engel  Rodrigo C. Eco  JaN B. Galang  Lia A. Gonzalo  Francesca Llanes  Eva Quix  Helmut Brückner 《Sedimentology》2020,67(3):1393-1410

Coastal boulder fields provide clues to long-term frequency-magnitude patterns of coastal flooding events and have the potential to play an important role in coastal hazard assessment. Mapping boulders in the field is time and labour-intensive, and work on intertidal reef platforms, as in the present study, is physically challenging. By addressing coastal scientists who are not specialists in remote sensing, this contribution reports on the possibilities and limitations of digital applications in boulder mapping in Eastern Samar, Philippines, where recent supertyphoons Haiyan and Hagupit induced high waves, coastal flooding and boulder transport. It is demonstrated how satellite imagery of sub-metre resolution (from Pléiades and WorldView-3 imagery) enables efficient analysis of transport vectors and distances of larger boulders, reflecting variation in latitudes of both typhoon tracks and approaching angles of typhoon-generated waves. During the investigated events, boulders with a-axes of up to 8 m were clearly identified to have been shifted for up to 32 m, mostly along the seaward margin of the boulder field. It is, however, hard to keep track of smaller boulders, and the length of a-axes and b-axes including their orientation is often impossible to map with sufficient accuracy. Orthophotographs and digital surface models created through the application of an unmanned aerial vehicle and the ‘Structure from Motion’ technique provide ultra-high-resolution data, and have the potential to not only improve the results of satellite image analysis, but also those from field mapping and may significantly reduce overall time in the field. Orthophotographs permit unequivocal mapping of a-axes and b-axes including their orientation, while precise values for c-axes can be derived from the respective digital surface models. Volume of boulders is best inferred from boulder-specific Structure from Motion-based three-dimensional models. Battery power, flight speed and altitude determine the limits of the area covered, while patches shielded by the boulders are difficult to resolve. For some tasks, field mapping remains mandatory and cannot be replaced by currently available remote sensing tools: for example, sampling for rock type, density and age dating, recording of lithological separation of boulders from the underlying geological unit and of geomorphic features on a millimetre to decimetre-scale, or documentation of fine-grained sediment transport in between the boulders in supratidal settings. In terms of future events, the digital products presented here will provide a valuable reference to track boulder transport on a centimetre to decimetre-scale and to better understand the hydrodynamics of extreme-wave events on a fringing reef coastline.  相似文献