Estimation and prediction of the spatial occurrence of fish species using Bayesian latent Gaussian models   总被引：3，自引：3，他引：0  

Facundo Muñoz  M. Grazia Pennino  David Conesa  Antonio López-Quílez  José M. Bellido 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2013,27(5):1171-1180

A methodological approach for modelling the occurrence patterns of species for the purpose of fisheries management is proposed here. The presence/absence of the species is modelled with a hierarchical Bayesian spatial model using the geographical and environmental characteristics of each fishing location. Maps of predicted probabilities of presence are generated using Bayesian kriging. Bayesian inference on the parameters and prediction of presence/absence in new locations (Bayesian kriging) are made by considering the model as a latent Gaussian model, which allows the use of the integrated nested Laplace approximation ( INLA ) software (which has been seen to be quite a bit faster than the well-known MCMC methods). In particular, the spatial effect has been implemented with the stochastic partial differential equation (SPDE) approach. The methodology is evaluated on Mediterranean horse mackerel (Trachurus mediterraneus) in the Western Mediterranean. The analysis shows that environmental and geographical factors can play an important role in directing local distribution and variability in the occurrence of species. Although this approach is used to recognize the habitat of mackerel, it could also be for other different species and life stages in order to improve knowledge of fish populations and communities.  相似文献   

Similarity measures of conditional intensity functions to test separability in multidimensional point processes     

Carlos Díaz-Avalos  P. Juan  J. Mateu 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2013,27(5):1193-1205

Separability in the context of multidimensional point processes assumes a multiplicative form for the conditional intensity function. This hypothesis is especially convenient since each component of a separable process may be modeled and estimated individually, and this greatly facilitates model building, fitting, and assessment. This is also related to the problem of reduction in the number of dimensions. Following previous approximations to this problem, we focus on the conditional intensity function, by considering nonparametric kernel-based estimators. Our approach calculates thinning probabilities under the conditions of separability and nonseparability and compares them through divergence measures. Based on Monte Carlo experiments, we approximate the statistical properties of our tests under a variety of practical scenarios. An application on modeling the spatio-temporal first-order intensity of forest fires is also developed.  相似文献   

Editorial     

Mariano García-Fernández 《Journal of Seismology》2013,17(2):203-203

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Effect of the inter-annual variability of rainfall statistics on stochastically generated rainfall time series: part 2. Impact on watershed response variables     

Dongkyun Kim  Francisco Olivera  Huidae Cho  Seung Oh Lee 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2013,27(7):1611-1619

This study analyzes how the stochastically generated rainfall time series accounting for the inter-annual variability of rainfall statistics can improve the prediction of watershed response variables such as peak flow and runoff depth. The modified Bartlett–Lewis rectangular pulse (MBLRP) rainfall generation model was improved such that it can account for the inter-annual variability of the observed rainfall statistics. Then, the synthetic rainfall time series was generated using the MBLRP model, which was used as input rainfall data for SCS hydrologic models to produce runoff depth and peak flow in a virtual watershed. These values were compared to the ones derived from the synthetic rainfall time series that is generated from the traditional MBLRP rainfall modeling. The result of the comparison indicates that the rainfall time series reflecting the inter-annual variability of rainfall statistics reduces the biasness residing in the predicted peak flow values derived from the synthetic rainfall time series generated using the traditional MBLRP approach by 26–47 %. In addition, it was observed that the overall variability of the peak flow and run off depth distribution was better represented when the inter-annual variability of rainfall statistics are considered.  相似文献   

Coastal dynamics off Northwest Iberia during a stormy winter period     

Pablo Otero  Manuel Ruiz-Villarreal  Luz García-García  Gonzalo González-Nuevo  Jose Manuel Cabanas 《Ocean Dynamics》2013,63(1):115-129

The consequences of a stormy winter period (2009/2010) on the shelf and coastal dynamics off Northwest Iberia are analysed by using model results in combination with the set of available observations in the frame of the Iberian Margin Ocean Observatory (RAIA), a cross-border infrastructure among North Portugal and Galicia (Spain). During the study winter, the frequent arrival of weather fronts forced river plumes to flow along the inner shelf in a fast (>1 m?s^?1) jet-like structure. The buoyant current strongly influenced the outer rías, the name of the estuaries in the region, where a strong decay of surface salinity (<10.5) has been observed. Once the weather front has passed, the wind reversal forced the offshore expansion of river plumes and also the development of a winter upwelling event. Thermohaline patterns in both model and observations revealed an intrusion of warm (>15 °C) and salty (>35.9) waters into the rías associated with the Iberian Poleward Current. Finally, some Lagrangian modelling experiments were performed to analyse the transport ability of the plume and the effect that could have had in the biological material trapped on it. The experiments reveal that an overall northward displacement of surface particles will be expected after several alternate wind events.  相似文献   

Non-parametric copulas for circular–linear and circular–circular data: an application to wind directions     

Jose A. Carnicero  M. Concepción Ausín  Michael P. Wiper 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2013,27(8):1991-2002

This paper proposes a nonparametric approach to estimating the dependence relationships between circular variables and other circular or linear variables using copulas. The proposed method is based on the use of Bernstein copulas which are a very flexible class of non-parametric copulas which allows for the approximation of any kind of dependence structure, including non symmetric relationships. In particular, we present a simple procedure to adapt Bernstein copulas to the circular framework and guarantee that the constructed bivariate distributions are strictly continuous. We provide two illustrative case studies, the first on the relation between wind direction and quantity of rainfall in the North of Spain and the second on the dependence between the wind directions in two nearby buoys at the Atlantic ocean.  相似文献   

The Use of Resonant Orbits in Satellite Geodesy: A Review   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

J. Klokočník  R. H. Gooding  C. A. Wagner  J. Kostelecký  A. Bezděk 《Surveys in Geophysics》2013,34(1):43-72

Dynamic resonance, arising from commensurate (orbital or rotational) periods of satellites or planets with each other, has been a strong force in the development of the solar system. The repetition of conditions over the commensurate periods can result in amplified long-term changes in the positions of the bodies involved. Such resonant phenomena driven by the commensurability between the mean motion of certain artificial Earth satellites and the Earth’s rotation originally contributed to the evaluation and assessment of the Stokes parameters (harmonic geopotential coefficients) that specify the Earth’s gravitational field. The technique constrains linear combinations of the harmonic coefficients that are of relevant resonant order (lumped coefficients). The attraction of the method eventually dwindled, but the very accurate orbits of CHAMP and GRACE have recently led to more general insights for commensurate orbits applied to satellite geodesy involving the best resolution for all coefficients, not just resonant ones. From the GRACE mission, we learnt how to explain and predict temporary decreases in the resolution and accuracy of derived geopotential parameters, due to passages through low-order commensurabilities, which lead to low-density ground-track patterns. For GOCE we suggest how to change a repeat orbit height slightly, to achieve the best feasible recovery of the field parameters derived from on-board gradiometric measurements by direct inversion from the measurements to the harmonic geopotential coefficients, not by the way of lumped coefficients. For orbiters of Mars, we have suggestions which orbits should be avoided. The slow rotation of Venus results in dense ground-tracks and excellent gravitational recovery for almost all orbiters.  相似文献   

Residual drift demands in moment‐resisting steel frames subjected to narrow‐band earthquake ground motions     

Edén Bojórquez  Jorge Ruiz‐García 《地震工程与结构动力学》2013,42(11):1583-1598

This paper presents the main results of the evaluation of residual inter‐story drift demands in typical moment‐resisting steel buildings designed accordingly to the Mexican design practice when subjected to narrow‐band earthquake ground motions. Analytical 2D‐framed models representative of the study‐case buildings were subjected to a set of 30 narrow‐band earthquake ground motions recorded on stations placed in soft‐soil sites of Mexico City, where most significant structural damage was found in buildings as a consequence of the 1985 Michoacan earthquake, and scaled to reach several levels of intensity to perform incremental dynamic analyses. Thus, results were statistically processed to obtain hazard curves of peak (maximum) and residual drift demands for each frame model. It is shown that the study‐case frames might exhibit maximum residual inter‐story drift demands in excess of 0.5%, which is perceptible for building's occupants and could cause human discomfort, for a mean annual rate of exceedance associated to peak inter‐story drift demands of about 3%, which is the limiting drift to avoid collapse prescribed in the 2004 Mexico City Seismic Design Provisions. The influence of a member's post‐yield stiffness ratio and material overstrength in the evaluation of maximum residual inter‐story drift demands is also discussed. Finally, this study introduces response transformation factors, T_p, that allow establishing residual drift limits compatible with the same mean annual rate of exceedance of peak inter‐story drift limits for future seismic design/evaluation criteria that take into account both drift demands for assessing a building's seismic performance. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Hydrological study of the potential effects of the melting of Nevado del Ruiz glacier on urban growth zones in Manizales,Colombia     

Alejandro Marulanda Aguirre  Omar Alfonso Fonseca Tobasura  Omar Darío Cardona Arboleda 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(12):2179-2192

ABSTRACT

This paper presents the results of a hydrological study aimed at characterizing flood-prone areas in the urban growth zone in the city of Manizales based on the potential effects of melting of the Nevado del Ruiz glacier, in Caldas, Colombia. These results constitute a basis for decision making regarding possible urban growth zones in Andean areas that face risks from volcanic eruptions producing lahars and floods caused by glacier melt. Conservative estimates of extreme flows in the Chinchiná River in the urban growth area of El Rosario can be obtained by considering the effects of rain triggered by airborne particulate material following a volcanic explosion combined with the effects of glacier melt. The effects of global warming on tropical glaciers contribute to their retreat, leading to their disappearance. Therefore, the worst scenario would take place if these events occurred in the short term as glacier volume decreases with time.