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Theoretical and Applied Climatology - Multi-decadal regional projections of future climate change are introduced into a linear statistical model in order to produce an ensemble of austral...  相似文献   
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Basin‐wide correlation of Messinian units and Plio‐Quaternary chronostratigraphic markers (5.3 Ma, 2.6 Ma, 0.9 Ma and 0.45 Ma), the mapping of total sediment thickness and the determination of overall sedimentary volumes enabled us to provide a high‐resolution quantitative history of sediment volumes for the last 6 Ma along the Gulf of Lions margin. The results point to (i) a dramatic increase in terrigenous sediment input during the Messinian Salinity Crisis. This increased sedimentation reflects enhanced regional fluvial erosion related to the dramatic fall of Mediterranean base‐level. Stronger weathering due to a regional wetter climate probably also increased erosional fluxes. (ii) A sediment input three times higher during the Plio‐Quaternary compared to the Miocene seems in agreement with published measurements from World's ocean. However, the timing of this increase being uncertain, it implies that the trigger(s) also remain(s) uncertain. (iii) A decrease in detrital volume around 2.6 Ma is attributed to a regional change in the drainage pattern of rivers in the northwestern Alps. (iv) This study also highlights the Mid‐Pleistocene Revolution around 0.9 Ma, which resulted in an almost doubling of sediment input in the Provencal Basin.  相似文献   
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The High Energy Transient Experiment (HETE), scheduled for launch this year, is a small satellite dedicated to multiwavelength observations of -ray and X-ray bursts. The HETE spacecraft will be equipped with gamma-ray detectors, X-ray detectors with a coded mask, and ultraviolet-sensitive CCD cameras. The UV cameras on HETE are wide-field imagers which will a) provide UV images of the regions in which -ray or X-ray bursts are detected, before, duringand after the burst, b) detect UV transients, whether associated with a high-energy transient or not, c) monitor the brightnesses of field stars for variability over a wide range of timescales, and d) serve as star trackers for HETE. In this poster, we describe the HETE UV instrumentation, control software, and data products.  相似文献   
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This article provides an ex post analysis of the compliance of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol during the first commitment period (2008–2012) based on the final data for national GHG emissions and exchanges in carbon units that became available at the end of 2015. On the domestic level, among the 36 countries that fully participated in the Kyoto Protocol, only nine countries emitted higher levels of GHGs than committed and therefore had to resort to flexibility mechanisms. On the international level – i.e. after the use of flexibility mechanisms – all Annex B Parties are in compliance. Countries implemented different compliance strategies: purchasing carbon units abroad, stimulating the domestic use of carbon credits by the private sector and incentivizing domestic emission reductions through climate policies.

Overall, the countries party to the Protocol surpassed their aggregate commitment by an average 2.4 GtCO2e yr–1. Of the possible explanations for this overachievement, ‘hot-air’ was estimated at 2.2 GtCO2e yr–1, while accounting rules for land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) further removed 0.4 GtCO2e yr–1 from the net result excluding LULUCF. The hypothetical participation of the US and Canada would have reduced this overachievement by a net 1 GtCO2e yr–1. None of these factors – some of which may be deemed illegitimate – would therefore on its own have led to global non-compliance, even without use of the 0.3 GtCO2e of annual emissions reductions generated by the Clean Development Mechanism. The impact of domestic policies and ‘carbon leakage’ – neither of which is quantitatively assessed here – should not be neglected either.

Policy relevance

Given the ongoing evolution of the international climate regime and the adoption of the Paris Agreement in December 2015, we believe that there is a need to evaluate the results of the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol. To our knowledge there has been no overarching quantitative ex post assessment of the Kyoto Protocol based on the final emissions data for 2008–2012, which became available in late 2015. This article attempts to fill this gap, focusing on the domestic and international compliance of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol in the first commitment period.  相似文献   

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European Union directives as well as national legislation are placing great emphasis on the inclusion of stakeholder perspectives in the governance of risks from natural hazards. This should help decision makers formulate better policies. However, to date, there is little information on stakeholders’ perspectives with respect to landslide risk governance. This paper addresses the gap by reporting on research in Nocera Inferiore, Italy. The research is based on a documentary analysis, 43 semi-structured interviews and a survey submitted to 373 residents. The political instability, the unfairness of national funding allocation across municipalities and the residents’ lack of knowledge about risk assessment and emergency planning are some of the main barriers to effective risk governance. Moreover, there are divergent, sometimes even opposite, stakeholders’ views on several issues, such as the relevance of illegal development in risky areas. The results highlight the importance of addressing these divergent views and including the plurality of voices as a prerequisite for inclusive risk governance. The research provided essential background information for a participatory process, which was designed to support decisions on landslide risk mitigation measures in Nocera Inferiore (Linnerooth-Bayer et al. this issue). The methodology will be of more general interest to researchers and policymakers intent upon including stakeholder perspectives in natural risk governance.  相似文献   
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Abstract

An analytical spectral model of the barotropic divergent equations on a sphere is developed using the potential-stream function formulation and the normal modes as basic functions. Explicit expressions of the coefficients of nonlinear interaction are obtained in the asymptotic case of a slowly rotating sphere, i.e. when the normal modes can be expressed as single spherical harmonics.  相似文献   
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