Multi-decadal coastal change in New Zealand: Evidence, mechanisms and implications     

Karin R. Bryan  Paul S. Kench  Deirdre E. Hart 《New Zealand geographer》2008,64(2):117-128

Abstract:   Coastal research and monitoring on New Zealand beaches have typically examined seasonal and event-driven (storms) changes in the coast. However, historical records are now of sufficient length to indicate that change occurs at longer timescales. This paper presents examples of multi-decadal change at three case-study locations around New Zealand. Results show that morphological adjustment of the coast occurs at multi-decadal scales and is much larger than short-term dynamics. Physical mechanisms driving changes are ill defined but may be associated with El Niños and La Niña episodes which modulate waves and sea level, as well as changes in sediment supply.  相似文献   

The role of biomorphodynamics in estuarine evolution in New Zealand     

Barend Van Maanen  Giovanni Coco  rew Swales  Karin R. Bryan 《New Zealand geographer》2008,64(2):162-164

Abstract:   Biomorphodynamic interactions, the feedback loops that operate between physical processes, biology and morphology, affect the long-term evolution of estuaries. This paper outlines how consideration of such interactions and implementation through innovative modelling techniques can become the next crucial step needed to advance understanding of estuarine evolution.  相似文献   

New Zealand coastal system boundaries, connections and management   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Deirdre E. Hart  Karin R. Bryan 《New Zealand geographer》2008,64(2):129-143

Abstract:    Understanding coastal boundaries, connections and drivers of landscape change is integral to effective coastal planning and management. This concept is explored here through case studies representing two very different New Zealand systems: embayed sand beaches in eastern and western open-coast settings; and mixed sand and gravel coast river-mouth lagoons. When framed within a resource and environmental management context these studies indicate that national recognition of the dynamic and interactive nature of coastal environments is a relatively new and amorphous phenomenon in New Zealand and, as such, has been ineffective in driving integrated regional management practices and sustainable coastal outcomes.  相似文献   

Late Holocene intermediate water variability in the northeastern Atlantic as recorded by deep-sea corals     

K. Copard  C. Colin  G.M. Henderson  J. Scholten  E. Douville  M.-A. Sicre  N. Frank 《Earth and Planetary Science Letters》2012

The Nd isotopic composition of the aragonite skeleton of fossil deep-sea corals (Lophelia pertusa, Madrepora oculata and Desmophyllum dianthus) located in the northeastern Atlantic at water depths between 635 and 1300 m was investigated to reconstruct changes in the Atlantic mid-depth gyre circulation during the past millennium. The coral εNd values varied systematically from ? 11.8 to ? 14.4 during the past 1500 years, reflecting variations in seawater εNd and thus water mass provenance. Low εNd values (εNd = ? 14) occurred during the warm Medieval Climatic Anomaly (MCA) (between 1000 AD and 1250 AD) and during the most recent period (1950 AD to 2000 AD), interrupted by a period of significantly higher εNd values (~?12.5) during the Little Ice Age (LIA) (between 1350 AD and 1850 AD). One long-lived branching coral even recorded an abrupt systematic rise from low to high εNd values around 1250 AD over the course of its 10-year growth period.These variations are interpreted to result from variable contributions of the subpolar and subtropical Atlantic intermediate water masses, which today are characterized by εNd values of ? 15 and ~?11, respectively. The low εNd values observed during the warm MCA and during recent times imply a strong eastward extension of the mid-depth subpolar gyre (SPG) induced by a dominant positive phase of the North Atlantic oscillation (NAO). During the LIA, water from the subtropical gyre (STG) and potentially from the Mediterranean Sea Water (MSW) propagated further northward, as indicated by the higher coral εNd values. This pattern suggests a negative mean state of the NAO during the LIA, with weaker and more southerly located Westerlies and a westward contraction of the SPG. Variations in the contributions of the two gyres imply changes in the heat and salt budgets at intermediate depths during the past millennia that may have contributed to changes in the properties of North Atlantic inflow into the Nordic Seas and thus deep-water formation.  相似文献   

Probing the intrinsic shape and alignment of dark matter haloes using SDSS galaxy groups     

Yougang Wang  Xiaohu Yang  H. J. Mo  Cheng Li  Frank C. van den Bosch  Zuhui Fan  Xuelei Chen 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2008,385(3):1511-1522

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Uncertainty-based multi-criteria calibration of rainfall-runoff models: a comparative study     

Mahyar Shafii  Bryan Tolson  Loren Shawn Matott 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2014,28(6):1493-1510

This study compares formal Bayesian inference to the informal generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) approach for uncertainty-based calibration of rainfall-runoff models in a multi-criteria context. Bayesian inference is accomplished through Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling based on an auto-regressive multi-criteria likelihood formulation. Non-converged MCMC sampling is also considered as an alternative method. These methods are compared along multiple comparative measures calculated over the calibration and validation periods of two case studies. Results demonstrate that there can be considerable differences in hydrograph prediction intervals generated by formal and informal strategies for uncertainty-based multi-criteria calibration. Also, the formal approach generates definitely preferable validation period results compared to GLUE (i.e., tighter prediction intervals that show higher reliability) considering identical computational budgets. Moreover, non-converged MCMC (based on the standard Gelman–Rubin metric) performance is reasonably consistent with those given by a formal and fully-converged Bayesian approach even though fully-converged results requires significantly larger number of samples (model evaluations) for the two case studies. Therefore, research to define alternative and more practical convergence criteria for MCMC applications to computationally intensive hydrologic models may be warranted.  相似文献   

Orogen‐scale drainage network evolution and response to erodibility changes: insights from numerical experiments          下载免费PDF全文

Emanuele Giachetta  Alberto Refice  Domenico Capolongo  Nicole M. Gasparini  Frank J. Pazzaglia 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2014,39(9):1259-1268

The continuous feedbacks among tectonics, surface processes, and climate are reflected in the distribution of catchments on active mountain ranges. Previous studies have shown a regularity of valley spacing across mountain ranges worldwide, but the origin of this geomorphological feature is currently not well known. In this work, we use a landscape evolution model to investigate the process of fluvial network organization and the evolution of regular ridge‐and‐valley patterns on simulated mountain ranges. In particular, we investigate the behavior of such patterns when subjected to a perturbation in landscape processes from a previous steady state, resulting from a sudden variation in the pattern of bedrock erodibility, from homogeneous to a gradient. We analyze the time evolution of the mean ratio λ' between the linear spacing of adjacent valleys and the half width of the mountain range. We show how a valley spacing ratio of ~0.5 is first achieved at steady state under uniform bedrock erodibility. After applying the gradient of bedrock erodibility across the landscape, we observe that λ' first increases and then decreases to a new steady‐state value that is smaller than the original value. A detailed analysis of the simulations, through observations of surface ‘snapshots’ at repeated time intervals, allows to gain some insight into the mechanisms governing this fluvial network reorganization process, driven by the migration of the main divide toward the side characterized by lower bedrock erodibility. On both sides of the range the new steady‐state valley spacing is obtained through mechanisms of catchment reorganization and competition between adjacent fluvial networks. In particular, catchment reorganization is characterized by the growth of smaller catchments between shrinking larger catchments on the side with lower erodibility, and the growth of larger catchments on the side with higher erodibility. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

The kinematics and spatial distribution of stellar populations in E+A galaxies   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Michael B. Pracy  Harald Kuntschner  Warrick J. Couch  Chris Blake  Kenji Bekki  Frank Briggs 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2009,396(3):1349-1369

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Satellite kinematics – I. A new method to constrain the halo mass–luminosity relation of central galaxies     

Surhud More †  Frank C. van den Bosch  Marcello Cacciato 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2009,392(2):917-924

Satellite kinematics can be used to probe the masses of dark matter haloes of central galaxies. In order to measure the kinematics with sufficient signal-to-noise ratio, one uses the satellite galaxies of a large number of central galaxies stacked according to similar properties (e.g. luminosity). However, in general, the relation between the luminosity of a central galaxy and the mass of its host halo will have non-zero scatter. Consequently, this stacking results in combining the kinematics of satellite galaxies in haloes of different masses, which complicates the interpretation of the data. In this paper, we present an analytical framework to model satellite kinematics, properly accounting for this scatter and for various selection effects. We show that in the presence of scatter in the halo mass–luminosity relation, the commonly used velocity dispersion of satellite galaxies can not be used to infer a unique halo mass–luminosity relation. In particular, we demonstrate that there is a degeneracy between the mean and the scatter of the halo mass–luminosity relation. We present a new technique that can break this degeneracy, and which involves measuring the velocity dispersions using two different weighting schemes: host weighting (each central galaxy gets the same weight) and satellite weighting (each central galaxy gets a weight proportional to its number of satellites). The ratio between the velocity dispersions obtained using these two weighting schemes is sensitive to the scatter in the halo mass–luminosity relation, and can thus be used to infer a unique relation between light and mass from the kinematics of satellite galaxies.  相似文献   

Modelling galaxy–galaxy weak lensing with Sloan Digital Sky Survey groups     

Ran Li  H. J. Mo  Zuhui Fan  Marcello Cacciato  Frank C. van den Bosch  Xiaohu Yang  Surhud More 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2009,394(2):1016-1030

We use galaxy groups selected from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) together with mass models for individual groups to study the galaxy–galaxy lensing signals expected from galaxies of different luminosities and morphological types. We compare our model predictions with the observational results obtained from the SDSS by Mandelbaum et al. for the same samples of galaxies. The observational results are well reproduced in a Λ cold dark matter (ΛCDM) model based on the Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe ( WMAP ) 3-yr data, but a ΛCDM model with higher σ₈, such as the one based on the WMAP 1-yr data, significantly overpredicts the galaxy–galaxy lensing signal. We model, separately, the contributions to the galaxy–galaxy lensing signals from different galaxies: central versus satellite, early type versus late type and galaxies in haloes of different masses. We also examine how the predicted galaxy–galaxy lensing signal depends on the shape, density profile and the location of the central galaxy with respect to its host halo.  相似文献