Bayesian modelling the retreat of the Irish Sea Ice Stream     

Richard C. Chiverrell  Ian M. Thrasher  Geoffrey S. P. Thomas  Andreas Lang  James D. Scourse  Katrien J. J. van Landeghem  Danny Mccarroll  Chris D. Clark  Colm Ó Cofaigh  David J. A. Evans  Colin K. Ballantyne 《第四纪科学杂志》2013,28(2):200-209

We present an 8000‐year history spanning 650 km of ice margin retreat for the largest marine‐terminating ice stream draining the former British–Irish Ice Sheet. Bayesian modelling of the geochronological data shows the ISIS expanded 34.0–25.3 ka, accelerating into the Celtic Sea to reach maximum limits 25.3–24.5 ka before a collapse with rapid marginal retreat to the northern Irish Sea Basin (ISB). This retreat was rapid and driven by climatic warming, sea‐level rise, mega‐tidal amplitudes and reactivation of meridional circulation in the North Atlantic. The retreat, though rapid, is uneven, with the stepped retreat pattern possibly a function of the passage of the ice stream between normal and adverse ice bed gradients and changing ice stream geometry. Initially, wide calving margins and adverse slopes encouraged rapid retreat (～550 m a^?1) that slowed (～100 m a^?1) at the topographic constriction and bathymetric high between southern Ireland and Wales before rates increased (～200 m a^?1) across adverse bed slopes and wider and deeper basin configuration in the northern ISB. These data point to the importance of the ice bed slope and lateral extent in predicting the longer‐term (>1000 a) patterns and rates of ice‐marginal retreat during phases of rapid collapse, which has implications for the modelling of projected rapid retreat of present‐day ice streams. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Whipple telescope observations of LS I +61 303: 2004–2006     

A. Smith  R. W. Atkins  S. Bradbury  O. Celik  Y. C. K. Chow  P. Cogan  C. Dowdall  S. J. Fegan  P. Fortin  D. Gall  G. H. Gillanders  J. Grube  K. J. Gutierrez  T. A. Hall  D. Hanna  J. Holder  D. Horan  S. B. Hughes  T. B. Humensky  I. Jung  P. Kaaret  G. Kenny  M. Kertzman  D. B. Kieda  A. Konopelko  H. Krawczynski  F. Krennrich  M. J. Lang  S. Le Bohec  G. Maier  J. Millis  P. Moriarty  R. A. Ong  J. S. Perkins  K. Ragan  G. H. Sembroski  J. A. Toner  L. Valcarcel  V. V. Vassiliev  R. G. Wagner  S. P. Wakely  T. C. Weekes  R. J. White  D. A. Williams 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2007,309(1-4):299-303

In this paper we present the results of the past two years observations on the galactic microquasar LS I +61 303 with the Whipple 10 m gamma-ray telescope. The recent MAGIC detection of the source between 200 GeV and 4 TeV suggests that the source is periodic with very high energy (VHE) gamma-ray emission linked to its orbital cycle. The entire 50-hour data set obtained with Whipple from 2004 to 2006 was analyzed with no reliable detection resulting. The upper limits obtained in the 2005–2006 season covered several of the same epochs as the MAGIC Telescope detections, albeit with lower sensitivity. Upper limits are placed on emission during the orbital phases of 0→0.1 and 0.8→1, phases which are not included in the MAGIC data set.   相似文献   

巨分子云聚合形成N体模拟中粒子数的效应     

张同杰  宋国玄  杨志良  陈黎  张保洲  李楠  崔建华 《天文学报》2002,43(2):131-139

通过N体数值模拟以不同粒子数对星系中巨分子云的形成的影响进行了研究。结果表明：在聚合形成机制下，当对不同数目的分子云取相同的平均密度时，基本分子云的有效半径与其相应质量的立方根成正比，巨分子云的碎裂率与模拟基本分子云的数目无关。  相似文献   

Biodegradation and transport of benzene,toluene, and xylenes in a simulated aquifer: comparison of modelled and experimental results     

Jiin‐Shuh Jean  Ching‐Lang Tsai  Shen‐Haw Ju  Chun‐Wen Tsao  Shih‐Ming Wang 《水文研究》2002,16(16):3151-3168

Both laboratory experiments and numerical modelling were conducted to study the biodegradation and transport of benzene–toluene–xylenes (BTX) in a simulated semi‐confined aquifer. The factors incorporated into the numerical model include advection, hydrodynamic dispersion, adsorption, and biodegradation. The various physico‐chemical parameters required by the numerical model were measured experimentally. In the experimental portion of the study, BTX compounds were introduced into the aquifer sand. After the contaminants had been transported through the system, BTX concentrations were measured at 12 equally spaced wells. Subsequently, microorganisms obtained from the activated sludge of a sewage treatment plant and cultured in BTX mixtures were introduced into the aquifer through the 12 sampling wells. The distribution data for BTX adsorption by the aquifer sand form a nonlinear isotherm. The degree of adsorption by the sand varies, depending on the composition of the solute. The degradation time, measured from the time since the bacteria were added to the aquifer until a specific contaminant was no longer detectable, was 35–42 h for BTX. The dissolved oxygen, after degradation by BTX compounds and bacteria, was consumed by about 40–60% in the entire simulated aquifer; thus the aerobic conditions were maintained. This study provides insights for the biodegradation and transport of BTX in aquifers by numerical modelling and laboratory experiments. Experimental and numerical comparisons indicate that the results by Monod degradation kinetics are more accurate than those by the first‐order degradation kinetics. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

A North-South Transect across the Central Mexican Volcanic Belt at ~100{degrees}W: Spatial Distribution, Petrological, Geochemical, and Isotopic Characteristics of Quaternary Volcanism     

Blatter  Dawnika L.; Lang Farmer  G.; Carmichael  Ian S. E. 《Journal of Petrology》2007,48(5):901-950

Within the Zitácuaro–Valle de Bravo (ZVB) regionof the central Mexican Volcanic Belt (MVB), three lava serieshave erupted during the Quaternary: (1) high-K₂O basaltic andesitesand andesites; (2) medium-K₂O basaltic andesites, andesitesand dacites; (3) high-TiO₂ basalts and basaltic andesites. Thedominant feature of the first two groups is the lack of plagioclaseaccompanying the various ferromagnesian phenocrysts (olivine,orthopyroxene, augite, and hornblende) in all but the dacites.This absence of plagioclase in the phenocryst assemblages ofthe high-K₂O and medium-K₂O intermediate lavas is significantbecause it indicates high water contents during the stage ofphenocryst equilibration. In contrast, the high-TiO₂ group ischaracterized by phenocrysts of plagioclase and olivine. Thespatial distribution of these three lava series is systematic.The southern section of the ZVB transect, 280–330 km fromthe Middle America Trench (MAT), is characterized by high-K₂Omelts that are relatively enriched in fluid-mobile elementsand have the highest ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios. Medium-K₂O basaltic andesiteand andesite lavas are present throughout the transect, butthose closest to the MAT are MgO-rich (3·5–9·4wt %) and have phenocryst assemblages indicative of high magmaticwater contents (3·5–6·5 wt % water) andrelatively low temperatures (950–1000°C). In markedcontrast, the northern section of the ZVB transect (380–480km from the MAT) has high-TiO₂, high field strength element(HFSE)-enriched magmas that have comparatively dry (< 1·5wt % magmatic water) and hot (1100–1200°C) phenocrystequilibration conditions. The central section of the ZVB transect(330–380 km from the MAT) is a transition zone and producesmoderately light rare earth element (LREE) and large ion lithophileelement (LILE)-enriched, medium-K₂O lavas with phenocryst assemblagesindicative of intermediate (1·5–3·5 wt %)water contents and temperatures. The high-K₂O series compositionsare the most enriched in LILE and LREE, with a narrow rangeof radiogenic ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr from 0·704245 to 0·704507,¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd values ranging from 0·512857 to 0·512927(_Nd = 4·27–5·63), and ²⁰⁸Pb/²⁰⁴Pb valuesfrom 38·248 to 38·442, ²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁴Pb values from15·563 to 15·585, and ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁴Pb values from18·598 to 18·688. The medium-K₂O series compositionsare only moderately enriched in the LILE and LREE, with a broaderrange of ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr, but similar ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd and ²⁰⁸Pb/²⁰⁴Pbvalues to those of the high-K₂O series. In contrast, the high-TiO₂series compositions have little enrichment in LILE or LREE andinstead are enriched in the HFSE and heavy rare earth elements(HREE). The high-TiO₂ lavas are isotopically distinct in theirlower and narrower range of ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd. The isotopic variationsare believed to reflect the upper mantle magma source regionsas the low content of phenocrysts in most lavas precludes significantupper crustal assimilation or magma mixing, other than thatrepresented by the presence of quartz xenocrysts (< 2 vol.%) with rhyolitic glass inclusions, which are found in manyof these lavas. The systematic spatial variation in compositionof the three lava series is a reflection of the underlying subduction-modifiedmantle and its evolution. KEY WORDS: central Mexico; geochemistry; isotopes; Quaternary volcanism; hydrous lavas  相似文献   

基于观测误差后验分布的粗差探测的Bayes方法   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

归庆明  许阿裴  李新娜  杜院录  张磊 《测绘科学技术学报》2007,24(2):87-89,92

从观测误差出发,运用3σ-原理提出了一种粗差探测的Bayes方法--基于观测误差的后验概率法.针对非等权独立观测情形,在一定先验分布下推导了观测误差的后验分布;建立了与观测误差有关的后验概率的计算公式;给出了粗差估算的Bayes方法;提出了基于观测误差的后验概率进行粗差探测的实施过程.最后结合算例说明了其效果,并且与其他粗差探测方法进行了比较.大量试验表明,给出的探测粗差的Bayes方法是切实可行的.它不仅有效地发现了粗差,而且结果比较理想.  相似文献   

Where Is the PFAS? Innovations in PFAS Detection and Characterization     

John Horst  Craig Divine  Joe Quinnan  Johnsie Lang  Erika Carter  Theresa Guillette  Vivek Pulikkal 《Ground Water Monitoring & Remediation》2022,42(1):13-23

  相似文献   

1980—2017年祁连山水源涵养量时空变化特征   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

薛健  李宗省  冯起  缪驰远  邓晓红  狄振华  叶爱中  龚伟  张百娟  桂娟  高文德 《冰川冻土》2022,44(1):1-13

祁连山是中国西北地区十分重要的生态安全屏障,也是当地极为关键的水源涵养区。基于InVEST模型中的产水量模块,对祁连山水源涵养量和时空变化进行了分析并探讨其影响因素。结果表明：祁连山多年平均产水总量和水源涵养总量约为93.03×10⁸ m³和57.83×10⁸ m³。从时间变化来看,水源涵养量呈上升趋势,上升速率约为0.196 mm·a^-1;在空间上呈“东多西少”的分布格局,与年降水量的空间分布大致相同。不同土地利用类型下的水源涵养总量依次为：草地（31.87×10⁸ m³）>林地（16.71×10⁸ m³）>耕地（4.92×10⁸ m³）>其他用地（2.29×10⁸ m³）>建设用地（0.63×10⁸ m³）。降水量与水源涵养量在所有研究时段内均存在显著正相关性。不同时期土地利用类型的变化也会对水源涵养量产生重要影响,研究区草地面积变化对水源涵养量影响较大。根据建立的经验公式并参考已有研究成果,估算得出研究区多年冻土地下冰储量在550 km³以上,在全球气候变暖的背景下,消融趋势明显。研究可为祁连山水资源合理配置和生态系统保护提供参考。  相似文献   

南京栖霞山铅锌矿区深部找矿重大突破及启示   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

桂长杰  景山  孙国昌 《江苏地质》2015,39(1):91-98

经过2期接替资源勘查工作,南京栖霞山铅锌矿区深部找矿取得重大突破,新增铅锌金属储量达到大型规模;铅锌矿体中铜、金、银含量明显升高,可圈出铜、金、银工业矿体;矿床地质特征随深度增加发生明显变化,显示成矿温度向深部逐渐升高,岩浆作用的痕迹愈加明显。对矿床成因进行了探讨,认为该矿床属于岩浆热液为主的多源中低温热液矿床。矿区深部仍有较大找矿空间,栖霞山铅锌矿有望达到超大型规模。  相似文献   

DWG三维模型自动转换为X三维模型的方法研究     

桂林  闻平  吴小东 《测绘与空间地理信息》2015,(7):47-49

DWG三维模型作为一种成熟的三维模型格式已广泛应用于各领域,但在实际工作中,往往需要将其放置到多种三维设计平台中,而许多平台并不直接支持该格式,这限制了DWG格式三维模型的重复利用。本文首先分析了DWG三维模型格式,而后利用DWG.SDK二次开发包,实现了将DWG三维模型转换为X三维模型的方法并通过实例对该方法进行了验证,该方法拓宽了DWG三维模型的应用范围。  相似文献