Reply to Discussion of “Perceptual models of uncertainty for socio-hydrological systems: a flood risk change example”*     

Ida K. Westerberg  Giuliano Di Baldassarre  Keith J. Beven  Gemma Coxon  Tobias Krueger 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(13-14):2001-2003

ABSTRACT

Ertsen discusses the representation of reality and uncertainty in our paper, raising three critical points. In response to the first, we agree that discussion of different interpretations of the concept of uncertainty is important when developing perceptual models – making different uncertainty interpretations explicit was a key motivation behind our method. Secondly, we do not, as Ertsen suggests, deny anyone who is not a “certified” scientist to have relevant knowledge. The elicitation of diverse views by discussing perceptual models is a basis for open discussion and decision making. Thirdly, Ertsen suggests that it is not useful to treat socio-hydrological systems as if they exist. We argue that we act as “pragmatic realists” in most practical applications by treating socio-hydrological systems as an external reality that can be known. But the uncertainty that arises from our knowledge limitations needs to be recognized, as it may impact on practical decision making and associated costs.  相似文献   

Secular stability behaviour of nuclear burning before relaxation     

L. Herrera  N. Falcon 《Astrophysics and Space Science》1995,229(1):105-115

The criterion for the secular stability of nuclear burning is revised for times shorter than the effective time of relaxation into diffusion.Using the Cattaneo equation for the heat flux, we show that before the establishment of steady state resistive flow, conditions for the stability of nuclear burning change of sign quasiperiodically, for any given value of the gravothermal specific heat. Implications of this result in calculations of nuclear fusion in accreting neutron star envelopes are suggested.  相似文献   

An umbral brightening associated with a two-ribbon flare     

M. Vazquez  F. Herrera 《Solar physics》1979,64(2):329-331

We report an unusual case of a two-ribbon flare associated with an umbral brightening in a magnetically unipolar region.  相似文献   

A generalization of the concept of adiabatic index for non-adiabatic systems     

W. Barreto  L. Herrera  N. Santos 《Astrophysics and Space Science》1992,187(2):271-290

The concept of adiabatic index, measuring the stiffness of the equation of state for adiabatic systems, and which plays a fundamental role in the study of gravitational collapse, is extended to systems emitting and/or absorbing energy. In the light of the new definition, the collapse of two models of radiating, general relativistic spheres is analyzed in detail, at different regimes of radiation transport. The conspicuous role played by the new variable is clearly exhibited.  相似文献   

Mesquite (Prosopis juliflora (Sw.) DC.), huisache (Acacia farnesiana (L.) Willd.) and catclaw (Mimosa biuncifera Benth.) and their effect on dynamics of carbon and nitrogen in soils of the semi-arid highlands of Durango Mexico     

G. Herrera-Arreola  Y. Herrera  B.G. Reyes-Reyes  L. Dendooven   《Journal of Arid Environments》2007,69(4):583-598

In the northern semiarid and arid part of Mexico, mesquite (Prosopis juliflora (SW.) DC.), huisache (Acacia farnesiana (L.) Willd.) and catclaw (Mimosa biuncifera Benth.), N₂-fixing trees or shrubs, dominate the landscape. It is unknown, however, how much the leaves of those shrubs contribute to dynamics of carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) in soil. We investigated this by adding leaves of each species to soil sampled under the canopy of mesquite, huisache, and catclaw and outside their canopy while monitoring production of carbon dioxide (CO₂), and dynamics of inorganic N (ammonium (NH₄⁺) and nitrate (NO₃⁻)) in an aerobic incubation. The (hemi)cellulose and N content of the catclaw leaves was lower and the lignin and polyphenol content was larger than in the mesquite and huisache leaves. If we considered no priming effect, then 41% of the C added with catclaw leaves, 47% with huisache leaves and 49% with mesquite leaves mineralized within 42 days. The addition of the leaves had little or no effect on N mineralized, and only 6% of organic N of the mesquite leaves was mineralized. It was found that catclaw, huisache and mesquite have a positive effect on the arid and semi-arid ecosystems as they increased soil organic matter and soil N content.  相似文献   

Fault zone development and strain partitioning in an extensional strike-slip duplex: A case study from the Mesozoic Atacama fault system, Northern Chile   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

J. Cembrano  G. Gonzlez  G. Arancibia  I. Ahumada  V. Olivares  V. Herrera 《Tectonophysics》2005,400(1-4):105-125

Upper crustal strike-slip duplexes provide an excellent opportunity to address the fundamental question of fault zone development and strain partitioning in an evolving system. Detailed field mapping of the Mesozoic Atacama fault system in the Coastal Cordillera of Northern Chile documents the progressive development of second- and third-order faults forming a duplex at a dilational jog between two overstepping master faults: the sinistral strike-slip, NNW-striking, Jorgillo and Bolfin faults. These are constituted by a meter-wide core of foliated S-C ultracataclasite and cataclasite, flanked by a damage zone of protocataclasite, splay faults and veins. Lateral separation of markers along master faults is on the order of a few kilometers. Second-order, NW-striking, oblique-slip subsidiary fault zones do not show foliated ultracataclasite; lateral sinistral separations are in the range of  10 to 200 m with a relatively minor normal dip-slip component. In turn, third-order, east–west striking normal faults exhibit centimetric displacement. Oblique-slip (sinistral–normal) fault zones located at the southern termination of the Bolfin fault form a well-developed imbricate fan structure. They exhibit a relatively simple architecture of extensional and extensional-shear fractures bound by low displacement shear fractures. Kinematic analysis of fault slip data from mesoscopic faults within the duplex area, document that the NW-striking and the EW-striking faults accommodate transtension and extension, respectively. Examination of master and subsidiary faults of the duplex indicates a strong correlation between total displacement and internal fault structure. Faults started from arrays of en echelon extensional/extensional-shear fractures that then coalesced into throughgoing strike-slip faults. Further displacement leads to the formation of discrete bands of cataclasite and ultracataclasite that take up a significant part of the total displacement. We interpret that the duplex formed by progressive linkage of horsetail-like structures at the southern tip of the Bolfin fault that joined splay faults coming from the Jorgillo and Coloso faults. The geometry and kinematics of faults is compared with that observed in analog models to gain an insight into the kinematic processes leading to complex strike-slip fault zones in the upper crust.  相似文献   

Esterification of vertebrate-like steroids in the eastern oyster (Crassostrea virginica)     

Gemma Janer  Sonia Mesia-Vela  Margy L. Wintermyer  Keith R. Cooper  Fred C. Kauffman  Cinta Porte 《Marine environmental research》2004,58(2-5):481

The esterification of two model vertebrate steroid hormones – estradiol (E2) and dehidroepiandrosterone (DHEA) – was studied in the oyster Crassostrea virginica. The activity of acyl-CoA:steroid acyltransferase was characterized in microsomal fractions isolated from oyster digestive glands. The apparent K_m and V_max values changed with the fatty acid acyl-CoA used (C20:4, C18:2, C18:1, C16:1, C18:0 or C16:0), and were in the range of 9–17 μM, and 35–74 pmol/min/mg protein for E2, and in the range of 45–120 μM, and 30–182 pmol/min/mg protein for DHEA. Kinetic parameters were also assessed in gonadal tissue. The enzyme saturated at similar concentrations, although conjugation rates were lower than in digestive gland. Preliminary data shows that tributyltin (TBT) in the low μM range (1–50) strongly inhibits E2 and DHEA esterification, the esterification of E2 being more sensitive to inhibition than that of DHEA. Overall, results indicate that apolar conjugation occurs in oysters, in both digestive gland and gonads, at a very similar rate to mammals, suggesting that this is a well conserved conjugation pathway during evolution. Esterification, together with other mechanisms, can modulate endogenous steroid levels in C. virginica, and might be a target for endocrine disrupters, such as TBT.  相似文献   

Calibration and validation of rockfall modelling at regional scale: application along a roadway in Mallorca (Spain) and organization of its management   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Rosa María Mateos  Inmaculada García-Moreno  Paola Reichenbach  Gerardo Herrera  Roberto Sarro  Joan Rius  Raúl Aguiló  Federica Fiorucci 《Landslides》2016,13(4):751-763

The Tramuntana range, in the northwestern sector of the island of Mallorca (Balearic Islands, Spain), is frequently affected by rockfalls which have caused significant damage, mainly along the road network. In this work, we present the procedure we have applied to calibrate and validate rockfall modelling in this region, using 103 cases of the available detailed rockfall inventory (630 rockfall events collected since the eighteenth century). We have exploited STONE (Guzzetti et al. 2002), a GIS-based rockfall simulation software which computes 2D and 3D rockfall trajectories starting from a DTM and maps of the dynamic rolling friction coefficient and of the normal and tangential energy restitution coefficients. The appropriate identification of these parameters determines the accuracy of the simulation. To calibrate them, we have selected 40 rockfalls along the range which include a wide variety of outcropping lithologies. Coefficients values have been changed in numerous attempts in order to select those where the extent and shape of the simulation matched the field mapping. Best results were summarized with the average statistical values for each parameter and for each geotechnical unit, determining that mode values represent more precisely the data. Initially, for the validation stage, 10 well-known rockfalls exploited in the calibration phase have been selected. Confidence tests have been applied to their modelling results taking into account not only the success but also the mistakes. The best accuracy is obtained when the rockfall has a preferential trajectory and worse results when the rockfall follows two or more trajectories. Additionally, the greater the rockfall runout length, the less precise the simulation is. We have further validated the calibrated parameters along the Ma-road (111 km), the main transportation corridor in the range, using 63 rockfall events that occurred during the past 18 years along the road. Of the rockfalls where source areas were properly identified, 81.5 % are well represented by STONE modelling, as the travel paths and the depositional areas are successfully ascertained. Results of the analysis have been used by the Road Maintenance Service of Mallorca to assess hazard and risk posed by rockfall at regional scale to design the road management plan.  相似文献   

A critical discussion of numerical models for multiaquifer systems     

Ismael Herrera  Jean Pierre Hennart  Robert Yates 《Advances in water resources》1980,3(4):159-163

Leaky aquifers constitute complicated hydrological structures, whose inclusion in numerical models of hydrological systems is difficult, because of their three-dimensional nature. Methods for treating such systems can be classified as fully three-dimensional and quasi-three-dimensional. The latter have clear numerical advantages when applicable. In this paper a critical discussion of existing quasi-three-dimensional models is presented.  相似文献   

A Geostatistical Methodology to Evaluate the Performance of Groundwater Quality Monitoring Networks Using a Vulnerability Index     

Hugo Júnez-Ferreira  Julián González  Emmanuel Reyes  Graciela S. Herrera 《Mathematical Geosciences》2016,48(1):25-44

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