A Kalman Filter Technique for Improving Medium-Term Predictions of the Sunspot Number     

T. Podladchikova  R. Van?der Linden 《Solar physics》2012,277(2):397-416

In this work we describe a technique developed to improve medium-term prediction methods of monthly smoothed sunspot numbers. Each month, the predictions are updated using the last available observations (see the monthly output in real time at ). The improvement of the predictions is provided by applying an adaptive Kalman filter to the medium-term predictions obtained by any other method, using the six-monthly mean values of sunspot numbers covering the six months between the last available value of the 13-month running mean (the starting point for the predictions) and the “current time” (i.e. now). Our technique provides an effective estimate of the sunspot index at the current time. This estimate becomes the new starting point for the updated prediction that is shifted six months ahead in comparison with the last available 13-month running mean, and it provides an increase of prediction accuracy. Our technique has been tested on three medium-term prediction methods that are currently in real-time operation: The McNish–Lincoln method (NGDC), the standard method (SIDC), and the combined method (SIDC). With our technique, the prediction accuracy for the McNish–Lincoln method is increased by 17 – 30%, for the standard method by 5 – 21% and for the combined method by 6 – 57%.  相似文献   

Characterizing multi-planet systems with classical secular theory     

Christa Van Laerhoven  Richard Greenberg 《Celestial Mechanics and Dynamical Astronomy》2012,113(2):215-234

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Mauritius since the last glacial: environmental and climatic reconstruction of the last 38 000 years from Kanaka Crater     

Geert W. Van Der Plas  Erik J. De Boer  Henry Hooghiemstra  F. B. Vincent Florens  Claudia Baider  Johannes Van Der Plicht 《第四纪科学杂志》2012,27(2):159-168

A 10 m long peat core from the Kanaka Crater (20° 25′ S, 57° 31′ E), located at 560 m elevation in Mauritius, was analyzed for microfossils. Eight radiocarbon ages show the pollen record reflects environmental and climatic change of the last ca. 38 cal ka BP. The record shows that the island was continuously covered by forest with Erica heath (Philippia) in the uplands. Cyperaceous reedswamp with Pandanus trees was abundant in the coastal lowlands as well as locally in the waterlogged crater. The record shows changes in climatic humidity (wet from 38.0 to 22.7 cal ka BP, drier from 22.7 to 10.6 cal ka BP, and wetter again from 10.6 cal ka BP to recent) as the main response to climate change. A high turnover in montane forest species is evidenced at 22.7 cal ka BP and at the start of the Holocene. The limited altitudinal ranges in the mountains of Mauritius (maximum altitude 828 m), and changing humidity being more important than changing temperature, suggests that in response to climate change a reassortment in taxonomic composition of montane forests might be equally important as displacement of forest types to new altitudinal intervals. We found weak impact of the latitudinal migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone and data suggest that the Indian Ocean Dipole is a more important driver for climatic change in the southwest Indian Ocean. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Discrete fracture model for simulating waterflooding processes under fracturing conditions          下载免费PDF全文

Emil Gallyamov  Timur Garipov  Denis Voskov  Paul Van den Hoek 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2018,42(13):1445-1470

In our study, we develop a model for simulating fracturing processes in a poroelastic medium. The proposed approach combines the discrete fracture model enriched with contact plane mechanics. The model captures mechanical interactions of fractures and a deformable medium, fluid, and heat transfer in fractures and in a porous medium. Both effects of poroelasticity and thermoelasticity are accounted in our model. Mass and heat conservation equations are approximated by the finite volume method, and mechanical equilibrium equations are discretized by means of the Galerkin finite element approach. Two‐dimensional grid facets between 3‐dimensional finite elements are considered as possible fracture surfaces. Most of these facets are inactive from the beginning and are activated throughout the simulation. A fracture propagation criterion, based on Irwin's approach, is verified on each nonlinear iteration. When the criterion is satisfied, additional contact elements are added into finite element and discrete fracture model formulations respectively. The proposed approach allows modeling of existing natural and artificially created fractures within one framework. The model is tested on single‐ and multiple‐phase fluid flow examples for both isothermal and thermal conditions and verified against existing semianalytical solutions. The applicability of the approach is demonstrated on an example of practical interests where a sector model of an oil reservoir is simulated with different injection and production regimes.  相似文献   

Southern Hemisphere westerly wind influence on southern New Zealand hydrology during the Lateglacial and Holocene          下载免费PDF全文

Harris J. Anderson  Christopher M. Moy  Marcus J. Vandergoes  Jonathan E. Nichols  Christina R. Riesselman  Robert Van Hale 《第四纪科学杂志》2018,33(6):689-701

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Two‐stage Variscan metamorphism in the Canigou massif: Evidence for crustal thickening in the Pyrenees     

Luc de Hoÿm de Marien  Benjamin Le Bayon  Pavel Pitra  Jean Van Den Driessche  Marc Poujol  Florence Cagnard 《Journal of Metamorphic Geology》2019,37(6):863-888

The Variscan metamorphism in the Pyrenees is dominantly of the low‐pressure–high‐temperature (LP‐HT) type. The relics of an earlier, Barrovian‐type metamorphism that could be related to orogenic crustal thickening are unclear and insufficiently constrained. A microstructural and petrological study of micaschists underlying an Ordovician augen orthogneiss in the core of the Canigou massif (Eastern Pyrenees, France) reveals the presence of two syntectonic metamorphic stages characterized by the crystallization of staurolite (M1) and andalusite (M2), respectively. Garnet is stable during the two metamorphic stages with a period of resorption between M1 and M2. The metamorphic assemblages M1 and M2 record similar peak temperatures of 580°C at different pressure conditions of 5.5 and 3 kbar, respectively. Using chemical zoning of garnet and calculated P–T pseudosections, a prograde P–T path is constrained with a peak pressure at ~6.5 kbar and 550°C. This P–T path, syntectonic with respect to the first foliation S1, corresponds to a cold gradient (of ~9°C/km), suggestive of crustal thickening. Resorption of garnet between M1 and M2 can be interpreted either in terms of a simple clockwise P–T path or a polymetamorphic two‐stage evolution. We argue in favour of the latter, where the medium‐pressure (Barrovian) metamorphism is followed by a period of significant erosion and crustal thinning leading to decompression and cooling. Subsequent advection of heat, probably from the mantle, leads to a new increase in temperature, coeval with the development of the main regional fabric S2. LA‐ICP‐MS U–Th–Pb dating of monazite yields a well‐defined date at c. 300 Ma. Petrological evidence indicates that monazite crystallization took place close to the M1 peak pressure conditions. However, the similarity between this age and that of the extensive magmatic event well documented in the eastern Pyrenees suggests that it probably corresponds to the age of monazite recrystallization during the M2 LP‐HT event.  相似文献   

Formational history of the Wicklow Trough: a marine-transgressed tunnel valley revealing ice flow velocity and retreat rates for the largest ice stream draining the late-Devensian British–Irish Ice Sheet     

Mark Coughlan  Zsuzsanna TÓth  Katrien J. J. Van Landeghem  Stephen Mccarron  Andrew J. Wheeler 《第四纪科学杂志》2020,35(7):907-919

The Wicklow Trough is one of several Irish Sea bathymetric deeps, yet unusually isolated from the main depression, the Western Trough. Its formation has been described as proglacial or subglacial, linked to the Irish Sea Ice Stream (ISIS) during the Last Glacial Maximum. The evolution of the Wicklow Trough and neighbouring deeps, therefore, help us to understand ISIS dynamics, when it was the main ice stream draining the former British–Irish Ice Sheet. The morphology and sub-seabed stratigraphy of the 18 km long and 2 km wide Wicklow Trough is described here from new multibeam echosounder data, 60 km of sparker seismic profiles and five sediment cores. At a maximum water depth of 82 m, the deep consists of four overdeepened sections. The heterogeneous glacial sediments in the Trough overlay bedrock, with indications of flank mass-wasting and subglacial bedforms on its floor. The evidence strongly suggests that the Wicklow Trough is a tunnel valley formed by time-transgressive erosional processes, with pressurised meltwater as the dominant agent during gradual or slow ice sheet retreat. Its location may be fault-controlled, and the northern end of the Wicklow Trough could mark a transition from rapid to slow grounded ice margin retreat, which could be tested with modelling.  相似文献   

Implicit structural inversion of gravity data using linear programming,a validation study*     

Arnout Tim Van Zon  Kabir Roy Chowdhury 《Geophysical Prospecting》2010,58(4):697-710

In this study, a regional scale gravity data set has been inverted to infer the structure (topography) of the top of the basement underlying sub‐horizontal strata. We apply our method to this real data set for further proof of concept, validation and benchmarking against results from an earlier forward modelling done elsewhere. Our aim is to carry out implicit structural inversion, i.e., to obtain a geologically reasonable model, without specifically solving for structure. The 2.5D volume of interest is parametrized with homogeneous horizontal prisms and a two‐lithology medium is assumed. A possible regional linear trend and a general floating reference are also inverted for. Using a gridded parametrization, linear programming is used to minimize the L₁ ‐norm of the data misfit, relative to a floating reference. Given a known density contrast between the lithologies, an inversion using linear programming has the intrinsic advantage that a relatively sharp image of the sub‐surface is retrieved instead of a smooth one. The model recovered is almost bi‐modal and its general features seem to be robust with respect to several parametrization scenarios investigated. The floating reference and a linear trend in the data were also retrieved simultaneously. The inversion results, indicating two depressions in the basement, are robust and agree with those obtained earlier based upon detailed 2D forward modelling using many narrow, near‐vertical prisms.  相似文献   

Long-term divergent tidal flat benthic community recovery following hypoxia-induced mortality     

C. Van Colen  F. Montserrat  M. Vincx  T. Ysebaert  S. Degraer 《Marine pollution bulletin》2010,60(2):178-84

Macrobenthos recovery after hypoxia-induced mass mortality was assessed in an estuarine tidal mudflat during 3 years. During the first 2 years, a Pearson-Rosenberg type of community recovery took place along with the improving bottom water oxygen conditions. After 3 months, spionid polychaetes became superabundant (i.e. opportunistic peak), followed rapidly by a steep decline (i.e. ecotone point). Subsequently, a moderate increase in species richness and a steep increase in biomass, related to the growth of long-lived species occurred (i.e. transition region). Afterwards, however, the recovering community diverged again from the ambient, undisturbed, sediments due to enhanced recruitment success of long-lived species presumably resulting from the lowered interference from bioturbation during early recovery stages in the disturbed plots. Hence, despite early community recovery may be more or less deterministic, lagged divergent community reassembling may occur at the longer-term, thereby contributing to benthos patchiness in areas which are frequently subjected to disturbances.  相似文献   

Impact of the Charleston Ocean Dredged Material Disposal Site on nearby hard bottom reef habitats     

Stacie E. Crowe  Paul T. Gayes  Derk C. Bergquist  Robert F. Van Dolah 《Marine pollution bulletin》2010,60(5):679-691

The deepening of shipping and entrance channels in Charleston Harbor (South Carolina, USA) was completed in April 2002 and placed an estimated 22 million cubic yards (mcy) of material in the offshore Charleston Ocean Dredged Material Disposal Site (ODMDS). To determine if sediments dispersed from the ODMDS were negatively affecting invertebrate and/or finfish communities at hard bottom reef areas around the disposal area, six study sites were established: three close to and downdrift of the ODMDS and three upcurrent and farther from the ODMDS. These sites were monitored biannually from 2000 to 2005 using diver surveys and annually using simultaneous underwater video tows and detailed sidescan-sonar. In general, the sediment characteristics of downdrift sites and reference sites changed similarly over time. Overall, the hard bottom reef areas and their associated communities showed little evidence of degradation resulting from the movement of sediments from the Charleston ODMDS during the study period.  相似文献