A geostatistical approach for mapping and uncertainty assessment of geogenic radon gas in soil in an area of southern Italy   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0  

Gabriele Buttafuoco  Adalisa Tallarico  Giovanni Falcone  Ilaria Guagliardi 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2010,61(3):491-505

Spatial distribution of concentrations of radon gas in the soil is important for defining high risk areas because geogenic radon is the major potential source of indoor radon concentrations regardless of the construction features of buildings. An area of southern Italy (Catanzaro-Lamezia plain) was surveyed to study the relationship between radon gas concentrations in the soil, geology and structural patterns. Moreover, the uncertainty associated with the mapping of geogenic radon in soil gas was assessed. Multi-Gaussian kriging was used to map the geogenic soil gas radon concentration, while conditional sequential Gaussian simulation was used to yield a series of stochastic images representing equally probable spatial distributions of soil radon across the study area. The stochastic images generated by the sequential Gaussian simulation were used to assess the uncertainty associated with the mapping of geogenic radon in the soil and they were combined to calculate the probability of exceeding a specified critical threshold that might cause concern for human health. The study showed that emanation of radon gas radon was also dependent on geological structure and lithology. The results have provided insight into the influence of basement geochemistry on the spatial distribution of radon levels at the soil/atmosphere interface and suggested that knowledge of the geology of the area may be helpful in understanding the distribution pattern of radon near the earth’s surface.  相似文献   

Geostatistical downscaling of fracture surface topography accounting for local roughness     

Hirotaka Saito  Giovanni Grasselli 《Acta Geotechnica》2010,5(2):127-138

This study proposes a new geostatistical methodology that accounts for roughness characteristics when downscaling fracture surface topography. In the proposed approach, the small-scale fracture surface roughness is described using a “local roughness pattern” that indicates the relative height of a location compared to its surrounding locations, while the large-scale roughness is considered using the surface semivariogram. By accounting for both components–the minimization of the local error variance and the reproduction of the local roughness characteristics–into the objective function of simulated annealing, the fracture surface topography downscaling process was improved compared to standard geostatistical methodologies such as ordinary kriging and sequential Gaussian simulation. Downscaled topography data were then assessed in terms of prediction errors and roughness distribution.  相似文献   

Potential use of microbial community investigations to analyse hydrothermal systems behaviour: the case of Ischia Island,Southern Italy     

Antonio Bucci  Gino Naclerio  Vincenzo Allocca  Pietro Celico  Fulvio Celico 《水文研究》2011,25(12):1866-1873

The Ischia hydrothermal system was analysed through hydrogeological and microbial community investigations. Mesophilic communities were detected in two cold springs, suggesting a negligible influence of thermal circuits in freshwater sub‐systems which are mainly or only fed by local precipitations. Thermophilic and extremely thermophilic bacteria were detected in two wells, according to higher water temperatures (61 and 85 °C), even if the two communities show significant differences. In one well, thermophilic and extremely thermophilic bacteria are associated with strains belonging to ε‐Proteobacteria isolated in different sulphur‐rich carbonate environments. This association suggests a greater influence on ascending hot fluids that interact with the carbonate basement of volcanic rocks. In the other well, thermophilic and extremely thermophilic bacteria are associated with strains isolated in cold hypersaline environments or in aquatic habitats where terrestrial and marine components are coupled. This association supports the fact that seawater intrusion can affect this part of Ischia, according to results of hydrogeological and geochemical surveys. Differences in groundwater temperature and bacterial communities are probably mainly due to differences in permeability between volcanic rocks and differences in hydrogeologic behaviour between faults in the upper carbonate basement, above the deep magma chamber, that influence relationships between ascending hot fluids and local recharge. This study contributes to discussion of the reliability of the actual behaviour models of the Ischia system, based on the results of geochemical and isotopic investigations, and, in a wider context, it shows that microbial community investigations may be a valuable supplementary tool for analysing hydrothermal system behaviour. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Earthquake‐induced turbidites triggered by sea level oscillations in the Upper Cretaceous and Paleocene of Italy     

David M. Bice  Alessandro Montanari  Giovanni Rusciadelli 《地学学报》2007,19(6):387-392

Earthquakes are widely recognized as triggers for turbidites, submarine debris flows and slumps. In tectonically active areas, surprisingly small changes in stress can trigger seismic events, implying that past sea level changes may be important in controlling the timing of seismicity and the occurrence of turbidites. We apply this idea in an analysis of turbidites from the upper Cretaceous–Paleocene Scaglia Rossa Formation of the Umbria‐Marches region of Italy. These turbidites are composed of resedimented foraminiferal tests derived from fluidizing deep‐water (∼1500 m), pelagic sediments; seismic triggering is the most likely triggering mechanism given this setting and composition. The timing of these turbidites (and associated synsedimentary slumps), constrained by biostratigraphy and magnetostratigraphy, reveals an unusual, non‐random temporal pattern that appears to correlate well with proposed eustatic fluctuations. This correlation between turbidites and eustatic fluctuations leads us to suggest that stress and pore fluid pressure changes associated with changing sea level may trigger periods of increased seismicity in the geological past.  相似文献   

Approaches for defining thresholds and return periods for rainfall‐triggered shallow landslides     

Paolo Frattini  Giovanni Crosta  Rosanna Sosio 《水文研究》2009,23(10):1444-1460

Probabilistic thresholds for triggering shallow landslides by rainfall are developed using two approaches: a logistic regression model and Iverson's physically based model. Both approaches are applied to a 180 km² area in northern Italy. For the physically based model a Monte Carlo approach is used to obtain probabilities of slope failure associated with differing combinations of rainfall intensity and duration as well as differing topographic settings. For the logistic regression model hourly and daily rainfall data and split‐sample testing are used to explore the effect of antecedent rainfall on triggering thresholds. It is demonstrated that both the statistical and physically based models provide stochastic thresholds that express the probability of landslide triggering. The resulting thresholds are comparable, even though the two approaches are conceptually different. The physically based model also provides an estimate of the percentage of potentially unstable areas in which failure can be triggered with a certain probability. The return period of rainfall responsible for landslide triggering is studied by using a Gumbel scaling model of rainfall intensity–duration–frequency curves. It is demonstrated that antecedent rainfall must be taken into account in landslide forecasting, and a method is proposed to correct the rainfall return period by filtering the rainfall maxima with a fixed threshold of antecedent rainfall. This correction produces an increase of the return periods, especially for rainstorms of short duration. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Crust 5.1‐based inference of the Earth's dynamic surface topography: geodynamic implications     

Giovanni Pari 《Geophysical Journal International》2001,144(3):501-516

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A statistical investigation of polar auroras     

Maurizio Giorgi  Giovanni P. Gregori  Carlo Valenti 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1968,71(1):42-50

Summary The magnetosphere depends on the astronomical orientation of the geomagnetic field with respect to the solar wind. The statistical distribution of polar auroras must therefore depend on the orientation of the geomagnetic field with respect to the ecliptic plane. We have investigated this peculiar feature of auroras that we call auroral astronomical geometry. We give here some preliminary results concerning a limited set of pre-IGY auroras. The criteria that we have chosen to prepare the auroral collection are also briefly summarized. The results conform to the hypothesis of the auroral origin from the magnetospheric neutral sheet. Auroral particles are found to impinge over the earth with low angles with respect to the ecliptic plane (40°). Only in a 4-hours interval around midnight they are found to impinge with angles up to 70°. Definite evidence of these facts requires further investigation with a larger amount of data. — We have also prepared a complex code for recording the morphological features of each aurora, namely: standard information, movement. intensity, color, sunlight illumination, period of pulsation, location in the sky among stars and planets, time evolution, duration and general features of the auroral display. It is well known in fact that the auroral morphology affects auroral heights and latitudes, etc.; presumably it should also affect its astronomical geometry, which we will investigate later.Presented at the Inter-Union Symposium on Solar-Terrestrial Physics — Belgrade 1966.  相似文献   

The evaluation of volcanic risk in the Vesuvian area     

Roberto Scandone  Giovanni Arganese  Flavio Galdi 《Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research》1993,58(1-4)

Volcanic Risk has been defined as the product: R = Value × Vulnerability × Hazard, where value is the total amount of lives or properties at risk for a volcani eruption, the vulnerability is the percentage of value at risk for a given volcanic event, and the hazard is the probability that a given area may be affected by a certain volcanic phenomenon.We used this definition to evaluate the Risk of loss of human lives for volcanic eruptions of Vesuvius. Value has been determined based on the total number of inhabitants living in areas that could be affected by an eruption. Vulnerability is based on the relative probability of deaths as a result of different volcanic phenomena (tephra fall, pyroclastic flows, etc.). Hazard is evaluated based on the absolute probability of a given phenomenon in a certain area. This last parameter is the most difficult to evaluate.We subdivided the activity of Vesuvius, that produces risk of loss of human lives, into three classes of eruptions, based on the Volcanic Explosivity Index. We assume that the events of each class are distributed according to a poissonian distribution (this is demonstrated for VEI = 3, and inferred for the other classes), so that we can evaluate the absolute probability of an eruption for each class within a given time span. We use a time window of 10 years and evaluate the probabilities of occurrence of at least one eruption for VEI = 3, 4, 5; the probability is respectively: P₃ = 0.09896, P₄ = 0.01748, P₅ = 0.00298We have made a hazard evaluation for the entire Vesuvian area as well as an evaluation of Volcanic Risk.The obtained map shows that the areas with higher risk are on the southern side of Vesuvius, in the coastal region where each town is characterized by an average Risk of 1000 inhabitants/10 years. The risk regularly decreases with increasing distance from the volcano. The risk is mostly due to the events with VEI = 3 and 4, as the most destructive effects of VEI = 5 are counterbalanced by the lower probability of such events.The map of volcanic risk is not intended to predict the loss of human lives of an eruption, but to give a methodology that permits to identify those areas where it is necessary to operate in order to reduce the risk of an eruption before it occurs.  相似文献   

Volcanic hazard assessment at the restless Campi Flegrei caldera   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Giovanni?OrsiEmail author  Mauro?Antonio?Di?Vito  Roberto?Isaia 《Bulletin of Volcanology》2004,66(6):514-530

Eruption forecasting and hazard assessments at the restless Campi Flegrei caldera, within the Neapolitan volcanic area, have been performed using stratigraphical, volcanological, structural and petrological data.On the basis of the reconstructed variation of eruption magnitude through time, we hypothesize that the most probable maximum expected event is a medium-magnitude explosive eruption, fed by trachytic magma. Such an eruption could likely occur in the north-eastern sector of the caldera floor that is under a tensile stress regime, when the ongoing deformation will generate mechanical failure of the rocks. A vent could open also in the western sector, at the intersection of two fault systems contemporaneously activated, as happened in the last eruption at Monte Nuovo. The eruption could likely be preceded by precursors apparent to the population, such as ground deformation, seismicity and increase in gas emissions. It will probably alternate between magmatic and phreatomagmatic phases with the generation of tephra fallout, and dilute and turbulent pyroclastic currents. During and/or after the eruption, the re-mobilization of ash by likely heavy rains, could probably generate mud flows.In order to perform a zoning of the territory in relation to the expected volcanic hazards, we have constructed a comprehensive hazard map. On this map are delimited (I) areas of variable probability of opening of a new vent, (II) areas which could be affected by variable load of fallout deposits, and (III) areas over which pyroclastic currents could flow. The areas in which a vent could likely open have been defined on the basis of the dynamics of the ongoing deformation of the caldera floor. To construct the fallout hazard map we have used the frequency of deposition of fallout beds thicker than 10 cm, the frequency of load on the ground by tephra fallout and the direction of dispersal axes of the deposits of the last 5 ka, and the limit load of collapse for the variable types of roof construction. The pyroclastic-current hazard map is based on the areal distribution and frequency of pyroclastic-current deposits of the last 5 ka.Editorial Responsibility: T. Druitt  相似文献   

Rare-earth elements in Oligo-Miocenic pelitic sediments from Lagonegro Basin,southern Apennines,Italy: implications for provenance and source area weathering     

Giovanni?MongelliEmail author 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》2004,93(4):612-620

The Lagonegro Units are a part of the southern Apennines orogenic wedge. The age of the Lagonegro successions ranges from lower–middle Triassic to Oligo-Miocene. During late Cretaceous and Oligocene the deposition of calcareous-clastic sediments occurred interbedded with shales (Flysch Rosso Fm). During Oligocene and early Miocene, in the Mediterranean area, an important variation of the tectonic regime occurred, and siliciclastic sediments of the Numidian Basin unconformably lay on the Meso-Cenozoic units of the Lagonegro Basin. In the Lucanian Apennine, the Aquitanian–Langhian Numidian Flysch Fm overlies the Flysch rosso Fm. The shales of the Flysch rosso Fm have a peculiar geochemical fingerprint relative to typical shales of post-Archean age. The abundance of Ni and Cr is significantly higher and the HREE chondrite-normalized patterns are steep with a (Gd/Yb)_ch>2. A supply of material from the African Archean terranes could be the cause. The palaeo-weathering indices record changes at the source, reflecting variations in the tectonic regime. The oldest samples are derived from an environment in which steady-state weathering conditions prevailed, whereas the youngest samples are related to non-steady-state weathering conditions. This difference could record deformational events that affected the Mediterranean area during the Oligocene and early Miocene. The sample at the top of the studied log has very high silica content and an abundant coarse grain-sized fraction. This suggests that this sample belongs to the Numidian Flysch Fm. The geochemical proxies of this sample are different from those associated with samples from the Flysch rosso Fm, indicating that the source-area of the Numidian Flysch Fm did not include the Archean terranes.  相似文献