ARIMA time series model building techniques are used to construct fifty-one state gasoline demand models based on monthly data for the period of January, 1975 to July, 1960. Statistically satisfactory models are obtained for all states. Price elasticity estimates are >0 for all states. All but four are statistically significant at the 0.05 level. The significant price elasticity estimates range from ?0.138 to ?0.377, with most clustering about ?0.2. Estimates of state gasoline supply shortages for May, June, and July, 1979 are also presented which range from 0 to 8 percent of normal consumption for the three-month-period. 相似文献
The Pacific margin of Canada has been subjected to tectonism, dramatic sea level change and vigorous storm and tidal energy since glacial times resulting in a complex seafloor. Extensive multibeam mapping of this shelf has provided an opportunity to understand how these processes have impacted sedimentology and morphology. Bathymetric restriction of the tidally dominated flow between the inland seas and the open Pacific has resulted in the development of very large subaqueous dune fields and terrace moats. For example, in the southern Strait of Georgia nearly symmetrical dunes with wavelengths between 100 and 300 m, dune heights up to 28 m, cover the seafloor in 170–210 m water depth. In northern Hecate Strait a 72 km2 area of large 2D dunes occurs at the transition with Dixon Entrance which opens to the Pacific Ocean and steep (>10°) wave-cut terraces and drowned spits, a result of sea level changes during the Holocene, are now being undercut to generate moats 7 m deep, in a narrowing shelf trough. Currents, with velocities ranging between 0.2 and 2.2 m s?1, are dominated by semi-diurnal tidal streams that are continually modified by wind and estuarine circulation. There appears to be a clear association of grain size, water depth and flow velocity controlling the size of the subaqueous dunes. 相似文献
The process of pressure solution is defined as the dissolution of materials under high stress at grain-to-grain contacts and precipitation at interfaces under low stress. The kinetics of this process are still poorly understood mainly because of the large timescales involved. In this research, the Surface Forces Apparatus (SFA) technique was coupled with an optical interference technique for in situ visualization of the nanoscale deformations and thickness changes. The SFA was used to measure the forces (or pressures) and distances between two solid surfaces pressed together with a thin film between them. Using the SFA, combined with geological observations, we are studying the short-range colloidal forces between surfaces of mica and silica at the nanoscale such as van der Waals, electrostatic, and hydration forces.
This study involves two cases, the symmetric case of mica in contact with mica and the asymmetric case of a quartz surface in contact with mica. Our results reveal highly subtle effects depending on the nature and concentration of the counterions present in the solution either of Na+, Ca2+, or mixtures of these ions, as well as on the pH. For the symmetric case, the equilibrium interactions of force F or pressure P versus fluid film thickness T have been measured between the mica surfaces across aqueous films in the thickness range from T = 25 Å down to contact separations around T = 0 Å, and depend on the solution conditions and applied lithostatic pressure. Measurements have also been made of the rates of diffusion of ions through such ultra-thin films and on the precipitation and growth of ionic crystallite layers on the surfaces. Our results show that the diffusion coefficient of hydrated sodium is two orders of magnitude lower than the diffusion of water into mica–mica cleavage and a factor of 40 lower than the coefficient of sodium ions in bulk water.
For the asymmetric case, the dissolution of the quartz surface was observed to be dependent on the interfacial fluid composition and pH, the externally applied ‘lithostatic’ pressure, and the type of crystalline structure exposed to the mica surface. Our experiments also show that there is an initial stage after fresh solution is added in which the spacing between the surfaces increases, however, the thickness started decreasing steadily after approximately 4 h of exposure independently of the crystallinity of the quartz surface. For a particular set of conditions, the process eventually slows down and reaches equilibrium after some time, but a further increase in pressure restarts the dissolution process. This is also true for the addition of fresh interfacial solution during the experiment after a period of thickness fluctuation. These results are consistent with the observation that pressure solution of quartz is greatly enhanced with the presence of mica. 相似文献
Spatial relations between land use and groundwater quality in the watershed adjacent to Assateague Island National Seashore,
Maryland and Virginia, USA were analyzed by the use of two spatial models. One model used a logit analysis and the other was
based on geostatistics. The models were developed and compared on the basis of existing concentrations of nitrate as nitrogen
in samples from 529 domestic wells. The models were applied to produce spatial probability maps that show areas in the watershed
where concentrations of nitrate in groundwater are likely to exceed a predetermined management threshold value. Maps of the
watershed generated by logistic regression and probability kriging analysis showing where the probability of nitrate concentrations
would exceed 3 mg/L (>0.50) compared favorably. Logistic regression was less dependent on the spatial distribution of sampled
wells, and identified an additional high probability area within the watershed that was missed by probability kriging. The
spatial probability maps could be used to determine the natural or anthropogenic factors that best explain the occurrence
and distribution of elevated concentrations of nitrate (or other constituents) in shallow groundwater. This information can
be used by local land-use planners, ecologists, and managers to protect water supplies and identify land-use planning solutions
and monitoring programs in vulnerable areas. 相似文献
This article discusses the various steps that the authors feel are necessary to the successful progression of an engineered
project sited in karst terrain. The procedures require a multidisciplined approach with liaison and cooperation among the
various parties to the project.
Initially, the prospective owner must have sufficient understanding of the potential engineering problems to incorporate the
engineering geologist into the early stages of any planned acquisition. The first step in an investigation should include
a review of the available geologic information, aerial photo interpretation, consultation with the State Geological Survey,
and a geologic reconnaissance of the prospective site and surrounding area.
A go-no-go decision as to purchase can often been made at an early time. Although, in some instances, more study is needed
for a particularly intriguing property.
The second stage should consider the various planning alternatives that are feasible based upon the limited available information.
At this stage planning/purchase decisions can be made as to purchasing options, value of the property, design constraints,
and the possible economic penalties that could be associated with the potential site construction. Various planning and construction
alternatives should be considered in this phase of the work.
The third stage should include a site investigation program of moderate size, consisting of test pits and/or exploratory borings.
The borings should be drilled using water as the drilling fluid, with an experienced crew and qualified technical inspection.
The authors find the use of geophysical techniques can be extremely misleading unless used in conjunction with exploratory
drilling. Successful evaluations using geophysical procedures occur only under ideal conditions.
The geotechnical viability of the plan and preliminary design should be investigated in the fourth phase. Additionally, the
physical parameters required for the design of structures founded atop cavities can be obtained at this time. Several support
schemes which incorporate cavity roof thickness, rock strength, and cavity space are discussed.
Possible construction procedures include excavation and dental concrete, grouting, piers or piles to sound rock, or moving
to another area. The relative economies of these procedures are discussed in relation to the size and depth of the soil or
rock cavity, possible future cavity formation, magnitude of loading and acceptable safety factors. 相似文献
Recent seismic and tectonic activity in Rabaul Caldera, Papua New Guinea, suggests that magma is accumulating at a shallow depth beneath this partially submerged structure and that a new volcano may be developing. Changes in onshore elevation since 1971 (as much as 2 m on south Matupit Island) indicate that rapid and large-scale uplifts have occurred on the seafloor near the center of the caldera. The frequency of seismic events within the caldera has also increased during this period. Earthquake locations define an elliptical ring surrounding the center of this uplift within the caldera.A marine geophysical survey in 1982 by the U.S. Geological Survey's R/V “S.P. Lee” in Rabaul Caldera shows the development of a bulge in the seafloor near the center of the caldera. High-resolution seismic reflection profiles show that this bulge consists of two domal uplifts bounded and separated by two major north-south-trending fault zones. Deformed sediments overlie these zones; a prominent slump flanks the area of the bulge.Five major acoustic units were identified in the seismic reflection profiles: an acoustic basement and four sedimentary units consisting of irregularly layered, cross-layered, contorted, and well-layered sequences. The acoustic basement is probably composed of crystalline volcanic rocks, and the layered acoustic units are probably sediments, primarily ash deposited in different environments. The cross-layered, irregularly layered, and contorted units appear to have been deposited in a dynamic environment subjected to strong currents, seismicity, and/or mass wasting, while the well-layered units were deposited in a low-energy environment. Locally, well-layered sequences interfinger with the other sedimentary units, indicating a transitional environment that alternated between high-energy and low-energy depositional processes.A submarine channel cuts most of the acoustic units and appears to be the conduit for sediment transport out of the caldera; it occupies an older buried channel north of the caldera that is presently being exhumed. In the south, active erosion of well-layered sediments is taking place. What are believed to be several young volcanic cones also disrupt the depositional layers.We conclude that the bulge in the seafloor and the associated fault zones are a result of emplacement of magma at a shallow depth. Contorted sediment and slumps adjacent to the bulge are probably the result of uplift and seismic activity. The pattern of seismicity appears to reflect increased magma pressure at depth beneath the caldera floor. This activity may eventually lead to an eruption. 相似文献
We present the results of a series of density experiments in the system O–S–Fe–Ni–Cu. These experiments were designed to extend
our understanding of the physical properties of sulfide liquids, and to extend one-bar thermochemical models for sulfide liquids
to apply to low to moderate pressures. Density measurements indicate both positive and negative deviations from linear mixing
of partial molar volumes across this five-dimensional composition space. In terms of the homogeneous speciation model of Kress
(in Contrib Mineral Petrol 154:191–204, 2007), the best fit to experimental data can be achieved by starting with a model
where the volume of formation reaction for associated species initially is set to zero. Further refinement of this first-order
fit yields a volume mixing model which reproduces experimental data to within nearly the estimated experimental uncertainty.
Experimental ultrasonic and X-ray absorption data from the literature, along with the bulk modulus–volume relation of Anderson
and Nafe (J Geophys Res 16:3951–3963, 1965), allow the estimation of the pressure dependence of partial molar volumes for
sulfide liquid species. The resulting combined thermochemical model should be valid to about 2,000 K and 3 GPa. Application
of this thermochemical model in a simple adiabatic magma ascent scenario confirms earlier work suggesting that the pressure
dependence of sulfur solubility in sulfide-saturated magma will decrease with increasing pressure along geologically reasonable
paths in P–T–– space. 相似文献