Twentieth century North Atlantic climate change. Part II: Understanding the effect of Indian Ocean warming     

M. P. Hoerling  J. W. Hurrell  T. Xu  G. T. Bates  A. S. Phillips 《Climate Dynamics》2004,23(3-4):391-405

Ensembles of atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) experiments are used in an effort to understand the boreal winter Northern Hemisphere (NH) extratropical climate response to the observed warming of tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the last half of the twentieth Century. Specifically, we inquire about the origins of unusual, if not unprecedented, changes in the wintertime North Atlantic and European climate that are well described by a linear trend in most indices of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The simulated NH atmospheric response to the linear trend component of tropic-wide SST change since 1950 projects strongly onto the positive polarity of the NAO and is a hemispheric pattern distinguished by decreased (increased) Arctic (middle latitude) sea level pressure. Progressive warming of the Indian Ocean is the principal contributor to this wintertime extratropical response, as shown through additional AGCM ensembles forced with only the SST trend in that sector. The Indian Ocean influence is further established through the reproducibility of results across three different models forced with identical, idealized patterns of the observed warming. Examination of the transient atmospheric adjustment to a sudden “switch-on” of an Indian Ocean SST anomaly reveals that the North Atlantic response is not consistent with linear theory and most likely involves synoptic eddy feedbacks associated with changes in the North Atlantic storm track. The tropical SST control exerted over twentieth century regional climate underlies the importance of determining the future course of tropical SST for regional climate change and its uncertainty. Better understanding of the extratropical responses to different, plausible trajectories of the tropical oceans is key to such efforts.  相似文献   

The ACPI Climate Change Simulations     

Aiguo Dai  W. M. Washington  G. A. Meehl  T. W. Bettge  W. G. Strand 《Climatic change》2004,62(1-3):29-43

The Parallel Climate Model (PCM) has been used in the Accelerated ClimatePrediction Initiative (ACPI) Program to simulate the global climateresponse to projected CO₂, sulfate, and other greenhouse gasforcingunder a business-as-usual emissions scenario during the 21st century. In these runs, the oceans were initialized to 1995 conditions by a group from the Scripps Institution of Oceanography and other institutions. An ensemble of three model runs was then carried out to the year 2099 using the projected forcing. Atmospheric data fromthese runs were saved at 6-hourly intervals (hourly for certain criticalfields) to support the ACPI objective of accurately modeling hydrologicalcycles over the western U.S. It is shown that the initialization to1995 conditions partly removes the un-forced oceanic temperature and salinity drifts that occurred in the standard 20th century integration. The ACPI runs show a global surface temperature increase of 3–8 °C over northern high-latitudes by the end of the 21st century, and 1–2 °C over the oceans. This is generally within ±0.1°Cof model runs without the 1995 ocean initialization. The exception is in theAntarctic circumpolar ocean where surface air temperature is cooler in theACPI run; however the ensemble scatter is large in this region. Althoughthe difference in climate at the end of the 21st century is minimalbetween the ACPI runs and traditionally spun up runs, it might be largerfor CGCMs with higher climate sensitivity or larger ocean drifts. Ourresults suggest that the effect of small errors in the oceans (such asthose associated with climate drifts) on CGCM-simulated climate changesfor the next 50–100 years may be negligible.  相似文献   

Mitigating the Effects of Climate Change on the Water Resources of the Columbia River Basin   总被引：5，自引：3，他引：5  

Jeffrey T. Payne  Andrew W. Wood  Alan F. Hamlet  Richard N. Palmer  Dennis P. Lettenmaier 《Climatic change》2004,62(1-3):233-256

The potential effects of climate change on the hydrology and water resources of the Columbia River Basin (CRB) were evaluated using simulations from the U.S. Department of Energy and National Center for Atmospheric Research Parallel Climate Model (DOE/NCAR PCM). This study focuses on three climate projections for the 21st century based on a `business as usual' (BAU) global emissions scenario, evaluated with respect to a control climate scenario based on static 1995 emissions. Time-varying monthly PCM temperature and precipitation changes were statistically downscaled and temporally disaggregated to produce daily forcings that drove a macro-scale hydrologic simulation model of the Columbia River basin at 1/4-degree spatial resolution. For comparison with the direct statistical downscaling approach, a dynamical downscaling approach using a regional climate model (RCM) was also used to derive hydrologic model forcings for 20-year subsets from the PCM control climate (1995–2015) scenario and from the three BAU climate(2040–2060) projections. The statistically downscaled PCM scenario results were assessed for three analysis periods (denoted Periods 1–3: 2010–2039,2040–2069, 2070–2098) in which changes in annual average temperature were +0.5,+1.3 and +2.1 °C, respectively, while critical winter season precipitation changes were –3, +5 and +1 percent. For RCM, the predicted temperature change for the 2040–2060 period was +1.2 °C and the average winter precipitation change was –3 percent, relative to the RCM controlclimate. Due to the modest changes in winter precipitation, temperature changes dominated the simulated hydrologic effects by reducing winter snow accumulation, thus shifting summer streamflow to the winter. The hydrologic changes caused increased competition for reservoir storage between firm hydropower and instream flow targets developed pursuant to the Endangered Species Act listing of Columbia River salmonids. We examined several alternative reservoir operating policies designed to mitigate reservoir system performance losses. In general, the combination of earlier reservoir refill with greater storage allocations for instream flow targets mitigated some of the negative impacts to flow, but only with significant losses in firm hydropower production (ranging from –9 percent in Period1 to –35 percent for RCM). Simulated hydropower revenue changes were lessthan 5 percent for all scenarios, however, primarily due to small changes inannual runoff.  相似文献   

Steady, annual, and monthly recharge implied by deep unconfined aquifer flow     

David W. Ostendorf  Paula L. S. Rees  Shawn P. Kelley  Alan J. Lutenegger 《Journal of Hydrology》2004,290(3-4):259-274

We consider the response of a deep unconfined horizontal aquifer to steady, annual, and monthly recharge. A groundwater divide and a zero head reservoir constrain the aquifer, so that sinusoidal monthly and aperiodic annual recharge fluctuations create transient specific discharge near the reservoir and an unsteady water table elevation inland. One existing and two new long-term data sets from the Plymouth-Carver Aquifer in southeastern Massachusetts calibrate and confirm hydraulic properties in a set of analytical models. [Geohydrology and simulated groundwater flow, 1992] data and a new power law for tritiugenic helium to tritium ratios calibrate the steady recharge that drives the classical parabolic model of steady hydraulics [Applied Hydrogeology, 2001]. Observed water table and gradient fluctuations calibrate the transient recharge models. In the latter regard, monitoring wells within 1 km of Buttermilk Bay exhibit appreciable specific discharge and reduced water table fluctuations. We apply [Trans Am Geophys Union 32(1951)238] periodic model to the monthly hydraulics and a recharge convolution integral [J Hydrol 126(1991)315] to annual flow. An infiltration fraction of 0.79 and a consumptive use coefficient of 1.08×10⁻⁸ m/s °C relate recharge to precipitation and daylight weighted temperature across all three time scales. Errors associated with this recharge relation decrease with increasing time scale.  相似文献   

Advection Within Shallow Pore Waters of a Coastal Lagoon, Florida   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Jaye E. Cable  Jonathan B. Martin  Peter W. Swarzenski  Mary K. Lindenberg  Joel Steward 《Ground water》2004,42(7):1011-1020

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Fate and Transport of Pharmaceuticals and Endocrine Disrupting Compounds During Ground Water Recharge     

Robert W. Masters  Ingrid M. Verstraeten  Thomas Heberer 《Ground Water Monitoring & Remediation》2004,24(2):54-57

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Thermal infrared remote sensing of volcanic emissions using the moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

I. M. Watson  V. J. Realmuto  W. I. Rose  A. J. Prata  G. J. S. Bluth  Y. Gu  C. E. Bader  T. Yu 《Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research》2004,135(1-2):75

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Design Earthquakes in the U.K.     

R.M.W. Musson 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2004,2(1):101-112

Three sites in the UK are taken, representative of low, medium and high hazard levels (by UK standards). For each site, the hazard value at 10⁻⁴ annual probability is computed using a generic seismic source model, and a variety of ground motion parameters: peak ground acceleration (PGA), spectral acceleration at 10 Hz and 1 Hz, and intensity. Disaggregation is used to determine the nature of the earthquakes most likely to generate these hazard values. It is found (as might be expected) that the populations are quite different according to which ground motion parameter is used. When PGA is used, the result is a rather flat magnitude distribution with a tendency to low magnitude events (\le 4.5 ML) which are probably not really hazardous. Hazard-consistent scenario earthquakes computed using intensity are found to be in the range 5.8–5.9 ML, which is more in accord with the type of earthquake that one expects to be a worst-case event in the UK. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.  相似文献   

Ambiguous Moment Tensors and Radiation Patterns in Anisotropic Media with Applications to the Modeling of Earthquake Mechanisms in W-Bohemia   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

Rössler  D.  Rümpker  G.  Krüger  F. 《Studia Geophysica et Geodaetica》2004,48(1):233-250

Anisotropic material properties are usually neglected during inversions for source parameters of earthquakes. In general anisotropic media, however, moment tensors for pure-shear sources can exhibit significant non-double-couple components. Such effects may be erroneously interpreted as an indication for volumetric changes at the source. Here we investigate effects of anisotropy on seismic moment tensors and radiation patterns for pure-shear and tensile-type sources. Anisotropy can significantly influence the interpretation of the source mechanisms. For example, the orientation of the slip within the fault plane may affect the total seismic moment. Also, moment tensors due to pure-shear and tensile faulting can have similar characteristics depending on the orientation of the elastic tensor. Furthermore, the tensile nature of an earthquake can be obscured by near-source anisotropic properties. As an application, we consider effects of inhomogeneous anisotropic properties on the seismic moment tensor and the radiation patterns of a selected type of micro-earthquakes observed in W-Bohemia. The combined effects of near-source and along-path anisotropy cause characteristic amplitude distortions of the P, S1 and S2 waves. However, the modeling suggests that neither homogeneous nor inhomogeneous anisotropic properties alone can explain the observed large non-double-couple components.The results also indicate that a correct analysis of the source mechanism, in principle, is achievable by application of anisotropic moment tensor inversion.  相似文献   

Are open fractures necessarily aligned with maximum horizontal stress?     

Stephen E Laubach  Jon E Olson  Julia F.W Gale 《Earth and Planetary Science Letters》2004,222(1):191-195

Fluid flow in fractured rock is an increasingly central issue in recovering water and hydrocarbon supplies and geothermal energy, in predicting flow of pollutants underground, in engineering structures, and in understanding large-scale crustal behaviour. Conventional wisdom assumes that fluids prefer to flow along fractures oriented parallel or nearly parallel to modern-day maximum horizontal compressive stress, or S_Hmax. The reasoning is that these fractures have the lowest normal stresses across them and therefore provide the least resistance to flow. For example, this view governs how geophysicists design and interpret seismic experiments to probe fracture fluid pathways in the deep subsurface. Contrary to these widely held views, here we use core, stress measurement, and fluid flow data to show that S_Hmax does not necessarily coincide with the direction of open natural fractures in the subsurface (>3 km depth). Consequently, in situ stress direction cannot be considered to predict or control the direction of maximum permeability in rock. Where effective stress is compressive and fractures are expected to be closed, chemical alteration dictates location of open conduits, either preserving or destroying fracture flow pathways no matter their orientation.  相似文献