GM(1,1)气候预测系统的降水预测检验   总被引：6，自引：6，他引：0  

梁玉琼  梁健 《广东气象》2007,29(3):24-25,44

选用华南区域15个代表站的降水历史资料,建立GM(1,1)气候预测系统,使用国家气象局统一的短期气候预测评分方法,对该系统的年、季、月雨量进行预测及检验。结果表明,近6年各月的月雨量预测总平均评分为69.4,且各年平均评分基本稳定,近4年月雨量预测评分均在70分以上,接近主观预测水平,同时对月雨量极值有较好的预测能力。近10年的年、季雨量预测评分分别为82.4和70.1,近3年的季雨量预测评分在70分以上,近4年的年雨量预测评分在90分以上,接近主观预测水平。因此GM(1,1)气候预测系统对华南区域降水的短期气候预测具有较好的参考意义。  相似文献   

The geological structure background and the crustal structure in the northeastern margin of the Qinghai-Tibetan plateau     

周民都  吕太乙  张元生  阮爱国 《地震学报(英文版)》2000,13(6):687-697

IntroductionThestudyingareaislocatedwithin32(~40(N,100(~108(E,consistingofseveralgeotectonicsubdivisions.Thisarea,locatedonthenortheasternmarginoftheuprisingregionoftheQinghai-Tibetanplateau,isaveryactiveregionofnewtectonicmovement.Moreover,afewoflargedeepfaultsdistributethere,mostofwhicharenotonlyboundaryfaultsofimportantgeotectonicdivisions,butalsoactivefaultscontrollingcontemporarystrongseismicactivities.AsshowninFigure1,manystrongearthquakeshaveoccurredinthisresearchareasuchassouthernTi…  相似文献   

应用于自主水下航行器的高可靠性CAN总线协议研究   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

路亚娟  梁捷  姜民  刘颉  杨逍  吕九红 《海洋技术学报》2009,28(4)

在研究适用于自主水下航行器的CAN总线协议中,提出一种合理可行的CAN总线协议和CAN应用层接口协议,能有效地提高自主水下航行器的数据通讯效率和长短帧数据收发的可靠性.  相似文献   

我国不同气候带黄土中粘土矿物组合特征分析   总被引：11，自引：1，他引：10  

师育新  戴雪荣  宋之光  张卫国  王立群 《沉积学报》2005,23(4):690-695

在兰州黄土和下蜀黄土中粘土矿物的X衍射分析基础上,对我国不同纬度和气候带的五个黄土剖面(点)中的粘土矿物组合和空间分布进行了对比分析,并探讨了与古气候的关系。结果表明,黄土中粘土矿物组合具有明显的地带性特征。从西北到东南,随着纬度的逐渐降低,黄土中的粘土矿物组合也发生有规律的变化。主要表现为绿泥石含量的逐渐减少和蛭石含量的逐渐增多。位于温带半干旱区的兰州黄土以伊利石和绿泥石为主要粘土矿物,而位于亚热带湿润区的大港下蜀黄土则以伊利石和蛭石为主要粘土矿物。黄土中含有较多量的绿泥石可作为黄土母质堆积后干冷气候和微弱风化的标志,而蛭石和蛭石/绿泥石混层矿物含量的增加指示了风化强度的增强。因此,黄土粘土矿物组合特征不仅反映物源区古环境信息,而且指示了黄土堆积期后的生物气候环境。  相似文献   

Mid‐MIS3 climate inferred from reconstructing the Dalijia Shan ice cap,north‐eastern Tibetan Plateau          下载免费PDF全文

JIE WANG  HANG CUI  JONATHAN M. HARBOR  LIMIN ZHENG  PAN YAO 《第四纪科学杂志》2015,30(6):558-568

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Lateglacial cryptotephra detected within clay varves in Östergötland,south‐east Sweden          下载免费PDF全文

A. MACLEOD  L. BRUNNBERG  S. WASTEGÅRD  T. HANG  I. P. MATTHEWS 《第四纪科学杂志》2014,29(7):605-609

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基于时间序列的高层建筑物沉降预测     

孟尚臻  赵泽昆  酒亚宾  杭晓亚 《北京测绘》2018,32(6):725-729

本文从时间序列的原理出发,详细论述了时间序列的建模步骤,针对时间序列预测精度随预测步数的增加而减小的不足,对时间序列模型进行了改进,建立了动态时间序列模型,并采用MATLAB软件进行编程,最后结合某电厂冷却塔沉降观测数据进行预报,预报结果表明动态时间序列模型能保持较高的预报精度,能较好的描述建筑物的变形规律。  相似文献   

First discovery of cryptotephra in Holocene peat deposits of Estonia, eastern Baltic     

TIIT HANG  STEFAN WASTEGÅRD  SIIM VESKI  ATKO HEINSALU 《Boreas: An International Journal of Quaternary Research》2006,35(4):644-649

This article reports the first discovery of middle Holocene cryptotephra from a peat sequence in Estonia, eastern Baltic. Two sequences, Mustjärve and Parika (located 110 km apart), were chosen for a pilot study aimed at finding traces of tephra fallout during the middle Holocene. Peat accumulation at both sites started in the early Holocene (c. 9500–9000 ¹⁴C yr BP; c . 11 000–10000 cal. yr BP) and continued throughout the whole Holocene. The radiocarbon-dated intervals between c. 2000 and 5000 ¹⁴C yr BP (c. 2000–5500 cal. yr BP) were chosen from both sites for the study. Colourless tephra shards were identified at 312–316 cm below the peat surface in the Mustjärve peat sequence, while no tephra was found in peat of the same age at Parika. Electron microprobe analyses suggest a correlation with the initial phase of the Hekla-4 eruption (c. 4260 cal. yr BP), although the age-depth model indicated an age around 4900 cal. yr BP. Small concentrations of colourless to light brown tephra shards at 266–270 cm in the Mustjärve sequence indicate that the Kebister tephra (c. 3750 cal. yr BP) might also be present, but geochemical analyses were not possible. The low concentration and small size of the tephra particles indicate that Estonian bogs are probably on the verge of where tephrochronology is possible in northwestern Europe. Further studies of full Holocene sequences are required in order to discover traces of other ash plumes reaching as far east as the eastern Baltic area.  相似文献   

Correlation of stadial and interstadial events in the south Swedish glacial varves with the GRIP oxygen isotope record     

BERTIL RINGBERG  JONAS BJÖRCK  TIIT HANG 《Boreas: An International Journal of Quaternary Research》2003,32(2):427-435

A number of correlated varve sequences from the local varve chronology in southeastern Sweden have been selected to make a 1040 varve years long mean varve thickness curve. Pollen analyses were carried out over an interval of 373 varve years in the northern part of the study area. The pollen stratigraphical data have been divided into local pollen assemblage zones which have been correlated with the radiocarbon-dated regional pollen assemblage zones. Based on variations in herb and tree pollen content of the analysed varve sequences, it has been possible to identify well-documented lateglacial pollen zones for southern Sweden, i.e. the Bölling interstadial (GI-1e), the Older Dryas cold event (GI-1d) and the early part of the Alleröd interstadial (GI-1c). The event stratigraphy in this study, based on varying varve thicknesses and the composition of the pollen flora in the varves, has been correlated with the oxygen isotope stratigraphy of the GRIP ice-core on Greenland between 13600 and 14400 GRIP ice-core years BP. It is concluded that five decadal warm events and one centennial warm event (15–60 and 100 varve years long, respectively) occur in the clay varve record along with one centennial cold event (150 varve years long), the Older Dryas (GI-1d).  相似文献   

印尼塔里阿布岛铁矿项目岩心钻探施工技术          下载免费PDF全文

杭程 《探矿工程》2012,39(1):25-28

在印尼塔里阿布铁矿项目岩心钻探施工中,其地层既具有泥岩、页岩、粘土岩的遇水膨胀、坍塌,又有凝灰岩、火山灰岩的遇水溶解及硅化石英岩的“打滑”,以及粉状铁矿取心难的特点。易出现卡钻、粘钻等孔内事故。通过大胆的探索,形成了针对该地区岩心钻探施工的一套施工工艺,取得了良好的钻探技术效果。详细介绍了印尼塔里阿布岛铁矿项目岩心钻探施工技术。  相似文献