Quantifying anthropogenic influence on recent near-surface temperature change   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

M. R. Allen  N. P. Gillett  J. A. Kettleborough  G. Hegerl  R. Schnur  P. A. Stott  G. Boer  C. Covey  T. L. Delworth  G. S. Jones  J. F. B. Mitchell  T. P. Barnett 《Surveys in Geophysics》2006,27(5):491-544

We assess the extent to which observed large-scale changes in near-surface temperatures over the latter half of the twentieth century can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change as simulated by a range of climate models. The hypothesis that observed changes are entirely due to internal climate variability is rejected at a high confidence level independent of the climate model used to simulate either the anthropogenic signal or the internal variability. Where the relevant simulations are available, we also consider the alternative hypothesis that observed changes are due entirely to natural external influences, including solar variability and explosive volcanic activity. We allow for the possibility that feedback processes, other than those simulated by the models considered, may be amplifying the observed response to these natural influences by an unknown amount. Even allowing for this possibility, the hypothesis of no anthropogenic influence can be rejected at the 5% level in almost all cases. The influence of anthropogenic greenhouse gases emerges as a substantial contributor to recent observed climate change, with the estimated trend attributable to greenhouse forcing similar in magnitude to the total observed warming over the 20th century. Much greater uncertainty remains in the response to other external influences on climate, particularly the response to anthropogenic sulphate aerosols and to solar and volcanic forcing. Our results remain dependent on model-simulated signal patterns and internal variability, and would benefit considerably from a wider range of simulations, particularly of the responses to natural external forcing.  相似文献   

Unusual Climate in Northwest Europe During the Period 1730 to 1745 Based on Instrumental and Documentary Data     

P. D. Jones  K. R. Briffa 《Climatic change》2006,79(3-4):361-379

This study focuses on one of the most interesting times of the early instrumental period in northwest Europe (from 1730–1745) attempting to place the extremely cold year of 1740 and the unusual warmth of the 1730s decade in a longer context. The similarity of the features in the few long (and independent) instrumental records together with extensive documentary evidence clearly indicates that remarkable climatic changes occurred rapidly in this period. We use unpublished subjective circulation charts developed by the late Hubert Lamb, to assist in understanding the course of events, particularly during the extreme year of 1740 and the four subsequent years. We also compare these subjective charts with others recently developed using more objective modern reconstruction techniques. Apart from evidence of a reduction in the number of explosive volcanic eruptions following the 1690s, it is difficult to explain the changes in terms of our knowledge of the possible factors that have influenced this region during the 19th and 20th centuries. The study, therefore, highlights how estimates of natural climatic variability in this region based on more recent data may not fully encompass the possible known range.  相似文献   

Water resources issues in South America     

J. A. A. Jones  O. E. Scarpati 《GeoJournal》2007,70(4):227-231

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A disturbed molecular disc in the Circinus galaxy     

M. Elmouttie  M. Krause  R. F. Haynes  & K. L. Jones 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》1998,300(4):1119-1126

We have used the Swedish ESO Submillimeter Telescope to observe the molecular gas in the Circinus galaxy using the CO(1 → 0) transition as a tracer. The central region and major axis have been mapped and several other points were also observed. The gas in the galaxy is concentrated towards the nucleus, the peak being coincident with the radio/optical core. The inclination of the molecular galactic disc is more comparable to that of the radio continuum than to that of the large-scale H  i emission. Evidence for an anomalous spur structure pointing radially away from the galactic centre is presented, and may indicate a causal link between it and similar features seen in optical lines and radio continuum. Our data suggest the presence of a central molecular ring or disc with radius 300 ± 50 pc and a rotation velocity of about 200 km s⁻¹ (assuming i  = 73°). The dynamical mass of the nucleus is estimated to be no greater than 3.9 × 10⁹ M_⊙. Assuming that the distribution of gas varies smoothly in the outer regions, we calculate the mass of molecular gas in the galaxy to be at least M _mol = 1.1 × 10⁹ M_⊙, and the star-forming efficiency to be 11 ± 2 L_⊙ M_⊙⁻¹. These results imply that Circinus is undergoing a massive central starburst which may be, at least partially, responsible for its extended minor axis emission seen in several wavebands.  相似文献   

A new population of brown dwarfs     

M. R. S. Hawkins  C. Ducourant  H. R. A. Jones  & M. Rapaport 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》1998,294(3):505-512

In this paper we report the first results from a survey for low-mass stars and brown dwarfs, based on a photographic stack of around 100 Schmidt plates. This survey extends photographic searches by about 2 mag, and covers an area of 25 deg². Some 30 faint objects with large R − I colours were selected for further study, and were found to have very strong molecular absorption in their spectra, but only moderately red infrared colours. Five of these stars were selected for a parallax programme; three of these were found to be at a distance of around 45 pc, implying a very low luminosity. On the basis of their luminosity alone it is clear that these stars are field brown dwarfs, and we discuss their likely evolutionary status in the context of current models of low-mass stellar evolution.  相似文献   

The kinematics of the ionized gas in the Circinus galaxy     

Marc Elmouttie  Bärbel Koribalski  Scott Gordon  Keith Taylor  Sally Houghton  Tracy Lavezzi  Raymond Haynes  & Keith Jones 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》1998,297(1):49-68

The TAURUS-2 Fabry–Perot interferometer, mounted on the 3.9-m Anglo-Australian Telescope, has been used to observe the Circinus galaxy. We have mapped the intensity and velocity distribution of the ionized hydrogen in the galaxy using the Balmer series Hα spectral line.
The semiresolved core (observed with a seeing disc of 30 pc) appears amorphous in shape, which is commonly observed in Seyfert 2 galaxies. Its peak coincides with the core position measured in the radio continuum, suggesting that ionized gas surrounds a non-thermal source.
A circumnuclear ring or spiral of radius 220 pc and a rotational velocity of 350 km s⁻¹ (assuming circular motions) surrounds the core. The inclination angle of this feature, i =40°±10°, is less than that of the previously observed radio continuum disc. The velocity channel maps obtained for the Hα ring show that the kinematics resemble those of a rotating ring and the intensity displays a complex structure indicative of several, unresolved, H II regions. We believe the ring to represent a circumnuclear starburst.
Our Hα data also show the presence of the previously detected [O III ] ionization cone to the north-west of the core, measuring more than 400 pc in length. We suggest that the ionization cone lies in a different plane from that of the starburst ring and is directed away from us. Several kinematic components of the core are derived and we calculate an outflow velocity in excess of 150–200 km s⁻¹ for gas above the core of Circinus. We also present evidence for inflowing ionized gas at the centre of Circinus.
The correlation of the Hα and radio continuum features is discussed, as well as the possible presence of a starburst-driven superwind in the Circinus galaxy.  相似文献   

Foreground separation methods for satellite observations of the cosmic microwave background     

M. P. Hobson  A. W. Jones  A. N. Lasenby  & F. R. Bouchet 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》1998,300(1):1-29

A maximum entropy method (MEM) is presented for separating the emission resulting from different foreground components from simulated satellite observations of the cosmic microwave background radiation (CMBR). In particular, the method is applied to simulated observations by the proposed Planck Surveyor satellite. The simulations, performed by Bouchet &38; Gispert, include emission from the CMBR and the kinetic and thermal Sunyaev–Zel'dovich (SZ) effects from galaxy clusters, as well as Galactic dust, free–free and synchrotron emission. We find that the MEM technique performs well and produces faithful reconstructions of the main input components. The method is also compared with traditional Wiener filtering and is shown to produce consistently better results, particularly in the recovery of the thermal SZ effect.  相似文献   

State-of-the-art report — engineering practice in artificial ground freezing     

John S. Jones  Jr 《Engineering Geology》1981,18(1-4):313-326

In the present paper an attempt has been made to summarize the current state-of-theart of engineering practice in artifical ground freezing. The paper shows the tremendous increase in knowledge and diversified applications in ground freezing over the past ten years and, together with other papers ih the Symposium, provides a useful background against which practicing engineers may. gain an understanding of ground freezing. As discussed in this paper, there are gain an understanding of ground freezing. As discussed in this paper, there are However, it is the author's assessment that the current state of knowledge is sufficient for safe designs and that future refinements in the area of structural analysis will only lead to more accurate deformation predictions and to possibly thinnerdesign frozen sections. Since the sizes of frozen sections are often more a function of construction practicality rather than design requirements, it is questionable whether potentially thinner sections will have a significant impact on actual construction.

An area that promises to have tremendous impact on the competitive nature of freezing for soft-ground tunneling is in improved horizontal drilling techniques. Several contractors are currently developing drilling equipment for horizontal drilling over large distances, whereas today the maximum economical distance is in the range of 30–40 m.  相似文献   

Nomenclature and the structure of natural disordered (opaline) silica   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

J. B. Jones  E. R. Segnit 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》1975,51(3):231-234

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Preface     

D.I. Gough  F.W. Jones 《Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors》1975,10(3):III

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