Non-grey hydrogen burning evolution of subsolar mass Population III stars     

G. J. Harris  A. E. Lynas-Gray  S. Miller  J. Tennyson 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2007,374(1):337-343

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Lie group variational integrators for the full body problem in orbital mechanics     

Taeyoung Lee  Melvin Leok  N. Harris McClamroch 《Celestial Mechanics and Dynamical Astronomy》2007,98(2):121-144

Equations of motion, referred to as full body models, are developed to describe the dynamics of rigid bodies acting under their mutual gravitational potential. Continuous equations of motion and discrete equations of motion are derived using Hamilton’s principle. These equations are expressed in an inertial frame and in relative coordinates. The discrete equations of motion, referred to as a Lie group variational integrator, provide a geometrically exact and numerically efficient computational method for simulating full body dynamics in orbital mechanics; they are symplectic and momentum preserving, and they exhibit good energy behavior for exponentially long time periods. They are also efficient in only requiring a single evaluation of the gravity forces and moments per time step. The Lie group variational integrator also preserves the group structure without the use of local charts, reprojection, or constraints. Computational results are given for the dynamics of two rigid dumbbell bodies acting under their mutual gravity; these computational results demonstrate the superiority of the Lie group variational integrator compared with integrators that are not symplectic or do not preserve the Lie group structure.  相似文献   

Effects of atmospheric dynamics and ocean resolution on bi-stability of the thermohaline circulation examined using the Grid ENabled Integrated Earth system modelling (GENIE) framework     

T. M. Lenton  R. Marsh  A. R. Price  D. J. Lunt  Y. Aksenov  J. D. Annan  T. Cooper-Chadwick  S. J. Cox  N. R. Edwards  S. Goswami  J. C. Hargreaves  P. P. Harris  Z. Jiao  V. N. Livina  A. J. Payne  I. C. Rutt  J. G. Shepherd  P. J. Valdes  G. Williams  M. S. Williamson  A. Yool 《Climate Dynamics》2007,29(6):591-613

We have used the Grid ENabled Integrated Earth system modelling (GENIE) framework to undertake a systematic search for bi-stability of the ocean thermohaline circulation (THC) for different surface grids and resolutions of 3-D ocean (GOLDSTEIN) under a 3-D dynamical atmosphere model (IGCM). A total of 407,000 years were simulated over a three month period using Grid computing. We find bi-stability of the THC despite significant, quasi-periodic variability in its strength driven by variability in the dynamical atmosphere. The position and width of the hysteresis loop depends on the choice of surface grid (longitude-latitude or equal area), but is less sensitive to changes in ocean resolution. For the same ocean resolution, the region of bi-stability is broader with the IGCM than with a simple energy-moisture balance atmosphere model (EMBM). Feedbacks involving both ocean and atmospheric dynamics are found to promote THC bi-stability. THC switch-off leads to increased import of freshwater at the southern boundary of the Atlantic associated with meridional overturning circulation. This is counteracted by decreased freshwater import associated with gyre and diffusive transports. However, these are localised such that the density gradient between North and South is reduced tending to maintain the THC off state. THC switch-off can also generate net atmospheric freshwater input to the Atlantic that tends to maintain the off state. The ocean feedbacks are present in all resolutions, across most of the bi-stable region, whereas the atmosphere feedback is strongest in the longitude–latitude grid and around the transition where the THC off state is disappearing. Here the net oceanic freshwater import due to the overturning mode weakens, promoting THC switch-on, but the atmosphere counteracts this by increasing net freshwater input. This increases the extent of THC bi-stability in this version of the model. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.  相似文献   

Quantifying strain birefringence halos around inclusions in diamond   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

D. Howell  I. G. Wood  D. P. Dobson  A. P. Jones  L. Nasdala  J. W. Harris 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》2010,160(5):705-717

The pressure and temperature conditions of formation of natural diamond can be estimated by measuring the residual stress that an inclusion remains under within a diamond. Raman spectroscopy has been the most commonly used technique for determining this stress by utilising pressure-sensitive peak shifts in the Raman spectrum of both the inclusion and the diamond host. Here, we present a new approach to measure the residual stress using quantitative analysis of the birefringence induced in the diamond. As the analysis of stress-induced birefringence is very different from that of normal birefringence, an analytical model is developed that relates the spherical inclusion size, R _i, host diamond thickness, L, and measured value of birefringence at the edge of the inclusion, \Updelta n(R_\texti )_\textav \Updelta n(R_{\text{i}} )_{\text{av}} , to the peak value of birefringence that has been encountered; to first order \Updelta n_\textpk = (3/4)(L/R_\texti )  \Updelta n(R_\texti )_\textav \Updelta n_{\text{pk}} = (3/4)(L/R_{\text{i}} ) \, \Updelta n(R_{\text{i}} )_{\text{av}} . From this birefringence, the remnant pressure (P _i) can be calculated using the photoelastic relationship \Updelta n_\textpk = - (3/4)n³ q_\textiso P_\texti \Updelta n_{\text{pk}} = - (3/4)n^{3} q_{\text{iso}} P_{\text{i}} , where q _iso is a piezo-optical coefficient, which can be assumed to be independent of crystallographic orientation, and n is the refractive index of the diamond. This model has been used in combination with quantitative birefringence analysis with a MetriPol system and compared to the results from both Raman point and 2D mapping analysis for a garnet inclusion in a diamond from the Udachnaya mine (Russia) and coesite inclusions in a diamond from the Finsch mine (South Africa). The birefringence model and analysis gave a remnant pressure of 0.53 ± 0.01 GPa for the garnet inclusion, from which a source pressure was calculated as 5.7 GPa at 1,175°C (temperature obtained from IR analysis of the diamond host). The Raman techniques could not be applied quantitatively to this sample to support the birefringence model; they were, however, applied to the largest coesite inclusion in the Finsch sample. The remnant pressure values obtained were 2.5 ± 0.1 GPa (birefringence), 2.5 ± 0.3 GPa (2D Raman map), and 2.5–2.6 GPa (Raman point analysis from all four inclusions). However, although the remnant pressures from the three methods were self-consistent, they led to anomalously low source pressure of 2.9 GPa at 1,150°C (temperature obtained from IR analysis) raising serious concerns about the use of the coesite-in-diamond geobarometer.  相似文献   

Thick sections of layered ultramafic cumulates in the Oman ophiolite revealed by an airborne hyperspectral survey: Petrogenesis and relationship to mantle diapirism     

Harold Clénet  Georges Ceuleneer  Patrick Pinet  Bénédicte Abily  Yves Daydou  Esther Harris  Isma Amri  Céline Dantas 《Lithos》2010,114(3-4):265-281

Using the HyMap instrument, we have acquired visible and near infrared hyperspectral data over the Maqsad area of the Oman ophiolite (~ 15 × 60 km). This survey allowed us to identify and map the distribution of clinopyroxene-rich cumulates (inter-layered clinopyroxenites and wehrlites) whose occurrence was previously undocumented in this area. The cumulates reach several hundred meters in thickness and crop out at distances exceeding 15 km on both sides of the Maqsad former spreading centre. They occur either in mantle harzburgites, as km-sized layered intrusions surrounded by fields of pegmatitic dykes consisting of orthopyroxene-rich pyroxenite and gabbronorites, or at the base of the crustal section where they are conformably overlain by cumulate gabbros. These ultramafic cumulates crystallized from silica- and Mg-rich melts derived from a refractory mantle source (e.g. high Cr#, low [Al₂O₃], low [TiO₂]). These melts are close to high-Ca boninites, although, strictly speaking, not perfect equivalents of present-day, supra-subduction zone, boninites. Chemical stratigraphy reveals cycles of replenishment, mixing and fractional crystallization from primitive (high Mg#) melts, typical of open magma chambers and migration of inter-cumulus melts. The TiO₂ content of clinopyroxene is always low (≤ 0.2 wt.%) but quite variable compared to the associated pegmatites that are all derived from a source ultra-depleted in high field strength elements (HFSE). This variability is not caused by fractional crystallization alone, and is best explained by hybridization between the ultra-depleted melts (parent melts of the pegmatites) and the less depleted mid-ocean ridge basalts (MORB) parent of the dunitic–troctolitic–gabbroic cumulates making up the crustal section above the Maqsad diapir.We propose that, following a period of magma-starved spreading, the Maqsad mantle diapir, impregnated with tholeiitic melts of MORB affinity, reached shallow depths beneath the ocean ridge. This diapir induced melting of the formerly accreted and hydrothermally altered lithosphere. At this stage, these boninitic-like lithospheric melts crystallized as pegmatitic dykes. As the diapir continued to rise, the amount of MORB reaching shallow depths increased, together with the surrounding temperature, leading to the formation of magma chambers where the crystallization of layered cumulates became possible. These cumulates remained rich in pyroxene and devoid of plagioclase as long as the contribution of MORB-derived melts was moderate relative to the lithospheric-derived melts. As the contribution of MORB to the refilling of the magma chamber increased, gabbroic cumulates started to crystallize.  相似文献   

The Use of Geographically Weighted Regression for Spatial Prediction: An Evaluation of Models Using Simulated Data Sets   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

P. Harris  A. S. Fotheringham  R. Crespo  M. Charlton 《Mathematical Geosciences》2010,42(6):657-680

Increasingly, the geographically weighted regression (GWR) model is being used for spatial prediction rather than for inference. Our study compares GWR as a predictor to (a) its global counterpart of multiple linear regression (MLR); (b) traditional geostatistical models such as ordinary kriging (OK) and universal kriging (UK), with MLR as a mean component; and (c) hybrids, where kriging models are specified with GWR as a mean component. For this purpose, we test the performance of each model on data simulated with differing levels of spatial heterogeneity (with respect to data relationships in the mean process) and spatial autocorrelation (in the residual process). Our results demonstrate that kriging (in a UK form) should be the preferred predictor, reflecting its optimal statistical properties. However the GWR-kriging hybrids perform with merit and, as such, a predictor of this form may provide a worthy alternative to UK for particular (non-stationary relationship) situations when UK models cannot be reliably calibrated. GWR predictors tend to perform more poorly than their more complex GWR-kriging counterparts, but both GWR-based models are useful in that they provide extra information on the spatial processes generating the data that are being predicted.  相似文献   

Transient climate changes in a perturbed parameter ensemble of emissions-driven earth system model simulations     

James M. Murphy  Ben B. B. Booth  Chris A. Boulton  Robin T. Clark  Glen R. Harris  Jason A. Lowe  David M. H. Sexton 《Climate Dynamics》2014,43(9-10):2855-2885

We describe results from a 57-member ensemble of transient climate change simulations, featuring simultaneous perturbations to 54 parameters in the atmosphere, ocean, sulphur cycle and terrestrial ecosystem components of an earth system model (ESM). These emissions-driven simulations are compared against the CMIP3 multi-model ensemble of physical climate system models, used extensively to inform previous assessments of regional climate change, and also against emissions-driven simulations from ESMs contributed to the CMIP5 archive. Members of our earth system perturbed parameter ensemble (ESPPE) are competitive with CMIP3 and CMIP5 models in their simulations of historical climate. In particular, they perform reasonably well in comparison with HadGEM2-ES, a more sophisticated and expensive earth system model contributed to CMIP5. The ESPPE therefore provides a computationally cost-effective tool to explore interactions between earth system processes. In response to a non-intervention emissions scenario, the ESPPE simulates distributions of future regional temperature change characterised by wide ranges, and warm shifts, compared to those of CMIP3 models. These differences partly reflect the uncertain influence of global carbon cycle feedbacks in the ESPPE. In addition, the regional effects of interactions between different earth system feedbacks, particularly involving physical and ecosystem processes, shift and widen the ESPPE spread in normalised patterns of surface temperature and precipitation change in many regions. Significant differences from CMIP3 also arise from the use of parametric perturbations (rather than a multimodel ensemble) to represent model uncertainties, and this is also the case when ESPPE results are compared against parallel emissions-driven simulations from CMIP5 ESMs. When driven by an aggressive mitigation scenario, the ESPPE and HadGEM2-ES reveal significant but uncertain impacts in limiting temperature increases during the second half of the twenty-first century. Emissions-driven simulations create scope for development of errors in properties that were previously prescribed in coupled ocean–atmosphere models, such as historical CO₂ concentrations and vegetation distributions. In this context, historical intra-ensemble variations in the airborne fraction of CO₂ emissions, and in summer soil moisture in northern hemisphere continental regions, are shown to be potentially useful constraints, subject to uncertainties in the relevant observations. Our results suggest that future climate-related risks can be assessed more comprehensively by updating projection methodologies to support formal combination of emissions-driven perturbed parameter and multi-model earth system model simulations with suitable observational constraints. This would provide scenarios underpinned by a more complete representation of the chain of uncertainties from anthropogenic emissions to future climate outcomes.  相似文献   

Changes to the drivers of fire weather with a warming climate – a case study of southeast Tasmania     

Michael R. Grose  Paul Fox-Hughes  Rebecca M. B. Harris  Nathaniel L. Bindoff 《Climatic change》2014,124(1-2):255-269

Projected changes to the global climate system have great implications for the incidence of large infrequent fires in many regions. Here we examine the synoptic-scale and local-scale influences on the incidence of extreme fire weather days and consider projections of the large-scale mean climate to explore future fire weather projections. We focus on a case study region with periodic extreme fire dangers; southeast Tasmania, Australia. We compare the performance of a dynamically downscaled regional climate model with Global Climate Model outputs as a tool for examining the local-scale influences while accounting for high regional variability. Many of the worst fires in Tasmania and the southeast Australian region are associated with deep cold fronts and strong prefrontal winds. The downscaled simulations reproduce this synoptic type with greater fidelity than a typical global climate model. The incidence of systems in this category is projected to increase through the century under a high emission scenario, driven mainly by an increase in the temperature of air masses, with little change in the strength of the systems. The regional climate model projected increase in frequency is smaller than for the global climate models used as input, with a large model range and natural variability. We also demonstrate how a blocking Foehn effect and topographic channelling contributed to the extreme conditions during an extreme fire weather day in Tasmania in January 2013. Effects such as these are likely to contribute to high fire danger throughout the century. Regional climate models are useful tools that enable various meteorological drivers of fire danger to be considered in projections of future fire danger.  相似文献   

Trends in Abundance Indices of Fishes in Maryland’s Coastal Bays During 1972–2009     

Jennifer Pincin  Michael J. Wilberg  Lora Harris  Angel Willey 《Estuaries and Coasts》2014,37(4):791-800

Maryland’s coastal bays provide habitat for juveniles of many commercially and recreationally important species of shellfish and finfish. Since 1972, the Maryland Department of Natural Resources has conducted the Maryland Coastal Bays Trawl and Seine Survey to monitor the populations of key species. The survey has undergone substantial spatial and methodological changes affecting the interpretation of simple indices of abundance. We developed generalized linear models to standardize the indices of abundance of five commonly caught fish species: Atlantic menhaden Brevoortia tyrannus, weakfish Cynoscion regalis, spot Leiostomus xanthurus, bay anchovy Anchoa mitchilli, and summer flounder Paralichthys dentatus. Density declined significantly since 1972 for menhaden, bay anchovy, and spot in at least one region within the coastal bays. The northern bays had significantly higher densities than the southern bays for all species. Changes in abundance indices of the five species examined were not related to sea grass coverage, temperature, salinity, nitrogen-to-phosphorus ratios, and other habitat variables but were likely a result of stock-wide recruitment processes.  相似文献   

Discovery of possible mega-thrust earthquake along the Seram Trough from records of 1629 tsunami in eastern Indonesian region   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Zac Yung-Chun Liu  Ron A. Harris 《Natural Hazards》2014,72(3):1311-1328

Arthur Wichmann’s “Earthquakes of the Indian Archipelago” documents several large earthquakes and tsunami throughout the Banda Arc region that can be interpreted as mega-thrust events. However, the source regions of these events are not known. One of the largest and well-documented events in the catalog is the great earthquake and tsunami affecting the Banda Islands on August 1, 1629. It caused severe damage from a 15-m tsunami that arrived at the Banda Islands about a half hour after violent shaking stopped. The earthquake was also recorded 230 km away in Ambon, but no tsunami is mentioned. This event was followed by at least 9 years of uncommonly frequent seismic activity in the region that tapered off with time, which can be interpreted as aftershocks. The combination of these observations indicates that the earthquake was most likely a mega-thrust event. We use an inverse modeling approach to numerically reconstruct the tsunami, which constrains the likely location and magnitude of the 1629 earthquake. Only, linear numerical models are applied due to the low resolution of bathymetry in the Banda Islands and Ambon. Therefore, we apply various wave amplification factors (1.5–4) derived from simulations of recent, well-constrained tsunami to bracket the upper and lower limits of earthquake moment magnitudes for the event. The closest major earthquake sources to the Banda Islands are the Tanimbar and Seram Troughs of the Banda subduction/collision zone. Other source regions are too far away for such a short arrival time of the tsunami after shaking. Moment magnitudes predicted by the models in order to produce a 15-m tsunami are M_w of 9.8–9.2 on the Tanimbar Trough and M_w 8.8–8.2 on the Seram Trough. The arrival times of these waves are 58 min for Tanimbar Trough and 30 min for Seram Trough. The model also predicts 5-m run-up for Ambon from a Tanimbar Trough source, which is inconsistent with the historical records. Ambon is mostly shielded from a wave generated by a Seram Trough source. We conclude that the most likely source of the 1629 mega-thrust earthquake is the Seram Trough. Only one earthquake >M_w 8.0 is recorded instrumentally from the eastern Indonesia region although high rates of strain (50–80 mm/a) are measured across the Seram section of the Banda subduction zone. Enough strain has already accumulated since the last major historical event to produce an earthquake of similar size to the 1629 event. Due to the rapid population growth in coastal areas in this region, it is imperative that the most vulnerable coastal areas prepare accordingly.  相似文献