On the importance of initializing the stochastic part of the atmosphere for forecasting the 1997/1998 El Ni?o     

Li Shi  Harry H. Hendon  Oscar Alves  Matthew C. Wheeler  David Anderson  Guomin Wang 《Climate Dynamics》2011,37(1-2):313-324

The importance of initializing atmospheric intra-seasonal (stochastic) variations for prediction of the onset of the 1997/1998 El Ni?o is examined using the Australian Bureau of Meteorology coupled seasonal forecast model. A suite of 9-month forecasts was initialized on the 1st December 1996. Observed ocean initial conditions were used together with five different atmospheric initial conditions that sample a range of possible initial states of intra-seasonal (stochastic) variability, especially the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), which is considered the primary stochastic variability of relevance to El Ni?o evolution. The atmospheric initial states were generated from a suite of atmosphere-only integrations forced by observed sea surface temperatures (SST). To the extent that low frequency variability of the tropical atmosphere is forced by slow variations in SST, these atmospheric states should all represent realistic low frequency atmospheric variability that was present in December 1996. However, to the extent that intra-seasonal variability is not constrained by SST, they should capture a range of intra-seasonal states, especially variations in the activity, phase and amplitude of the MJO. For each of these five states, a 20-member ensemble of coupled model forecasts was generated by the addition of small random perturbations to the SST field at the initial time. The ensemble mean from all five sets of forecasts resulted in El Ni?o but three of the sets produced substantially greater warming by months 4?C5 in the NINO3.4 region compared to the other two. The warmer group stemmed from stronger intra-seasonal westerly wind anomalies associated with the MJO that propagated eastward into the central Pacific during the first 1?C2?months of the forecast. These were largely absent in the colder group; the weakest of the colder group developed strong easterly wind anomalies, relative to the grand ensemble mean, that propagated into the central Pacific early in the forecast, thereby generating significantly weaker downwelling Kelvin waves in comparison to the warmer group. The strong reduction in downwelling Kelvin waves in the weakest case acted to limit the warming in the eastern Pacific, resulting in a ??Modoki?? type El Ni?o that is more focused in the central Pacific. Our results suggest that the intra-seasonal stochastic component of the atmospheric initial condition has an important and potentially predictable impact on the forecasts of the initial warming and flavour of the 1997/1998 El Ni?o. However, to the extent that atmospheric intra-seasonal variability is not predictable beyond a month or two, these results imply a limit to the accuracy with which the strength and perhaps the spatial distribution of an El Ni?o can ultimately be predicted. These results do not preclude a predictable role of the MJO and other intra-seasonal stochastic variability at longer lead times if some aspects of the stochastic variability are preconditioned by the evolving state of El Ni?o or other low frequency boundary forcing.  相似文献   

Using FTIR spectroscopy to characterise the soil mineralogy and geochemistry of cryoconite from Aldegondabreen glacier,Svalbard     

Harry Langford  Andy Hodson  Steve Banwart 《Applied Geochemistry》2011

Mineralogical and geochemical diversity in cryoconite granules from Aldegondabreen glacier was investigated using FTIR spectroscopy. Results suggest that the technique is an effective tool for investigating mineralogy and identifying spatial differences in geochemistry, based upon characteristic spectral signatures.  相似文献   

In situ laser ablation ICP‐MS analyses of dimict diogenites: Further evidence for harzburgitic and orthopyroxenitic lithologies     

Andrew W. Beck  Harry Y. McSween Jr.  Robert J. Bodnar 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2013,48(6):1050-1059

Trace element concentrations in pyroxene, plagioclase, and olivine were measured in five diogenite breccias previously identified as containing distinct harzburgitic (ol+opx) and orthopyroxenitic (opx) lithologies (dimict). Three samples show two distinct populations of pyroxene trace element abundances, supporting their classification as dimict. These three meteorites show increases in Y, Yb, and HREE concentrations from harzburgitic to orthopyroxenitic pyroxenes, supporting the hypothesis that the lithologies are related through fractional crystallization whereby harzburgite olivine and pyroxene crystallized from the magma first followed by orthopyroxenite pyroxene. Depletions in LREE and Eu concentrations in the orthopyroxenitic lithology are most likely due to equilibration with LREE and Eu‐rich phases, likely plagioclase, which is found primarily in that lithology. Two samples do not show evidence supporting a dimict classification. Large pyroxene trace element variation in one sample indicates that it is polymict, while uniform trace element distribution in the other suggests that it may be a monomict breccia.  相似文献   

Dawn; the Vesta–HED connection; and the geologic context for eucrites,diogenites, and howardites     

Harry Y. McSween Jr.  Richard P. Binzel  M. Cristina De Sanctis  Eleonora Ammannito  Thomas H. Prettyman  Andrew W. Beck  Vishnu Reddy  Lucille Le Corre  Michael J. Gaffey  Thomas B. McCord  Carol A. Raymond  Christopher T. Russell  the Dawn Science Team 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2013,48(11):2090-2104

The Dawn mission has provided new evidence strengthening the identification of asteroid Vesta as the parent body of the howardite, eucrite, and diogenite (HED) meteorites. The evidence includes Vesta's petrologic complexity, detailed spectroscopic characteristics, unique space weathering, diagnostic geochemical abundances and neutron absorption characteristics, chronology of surface units and impact history, occurrence of exogenous carbonaceous chondritic materials in the regolith, and dimensions of the core, all of which are consistent with HED observations and constraints. Global mapping of the distributions of HED lithologies by Dawn cameras and spectrometers provides the missing geologic context for these meteorites, thereby allowing tests of petrogenetic models and increasing their scientific value.  相似文献   

六价铬的生物还原过程中的Cr 同位素特征     

秦礼萍  HAN Ruyang  John N. CHRISTENSEN  Harry R  BELLER 《地质学报》2013,87(Z1):378-378

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Re-assessment of foundation settlements for the Burj Khalifa, Dubai     

Gianpiero Russo  Vincenzo Abagnara  Harry G. Poulos  John C. Small 《Acta Geotechnica》2013,8(1):3-15

This paper deals with the re-assessment of foundation settlements for the Burj Khalifa Tower in Dubai. The foundation system for the tower is a piled raft, founded on deep deposits of calcareous rocks. Two computer programs, Geotechnical Analysis of Raft with Piles (GARP) and Non-linear Analysis of Piled Rafts (NAPRA) have been used for the settlement analyses, and the paper outlines the procedure adopted to re-assess the foundation settlements based on a careful interpretation of load tests on trial piles in which the interaction effects of the pile test set-up are allowed for. The paper then examines the influence of a series of factors on the computed settlements. In order to obtain reasonable estimates of differential settlements within the system, it is found desirable to incorporate the effects of the superstructure stiffness which act to increase the stiffness of the overall foundation system. Values of average and differential settlements for the piled raft calculated with GARP and NAPRA were found to be in reasonable agreement with measured data on settlements taken near the end of construction of the tower.  相似文献   

Frictional sliding in serpentine at very high pressure     

Haemyeong Jung  Yingwei Fei  Paul G. Silver  Harry W. Green 《Earth and Planetary Science Letters》2009,277(1-2):273-279

Using a new four-channel system for detecting acoustic emissions in a multianvil apparatus, we have assessed the pressure–temperature range for such emissions, as well as the role of dehydration, by deforming samples of extensively serpentinized peridotite. We show that in the absence of dehydration and for samples initially faulted at low pressure, acoustic emissions occurred well outside the expected pressure–temperature field of unassisted brittle failure. Emissions were also detected during and after dehydration of serpentine. Microstructures of post-run specimens revealed fault slip with offsets up to ~ 500 μm, regardless of whether or not dehydration took place. Dehydration appears to effectively stop slip on pre-existing faults and create new ones. Analysis of P-wave travel times from the four sensors confirmed that the acoustic emissions originated within the specimen during fault slip. These observations suggest that earthquakes can be triggered by slip along an existing fault containing serpentine under significantly higher pressure and temperature conditions than previously thought possible without dehydration.  相似文献   

多代理人系统在商业街消费者行为模拟中的应用——以上海南京东路为例   总被引：4，自引：1，他引：3  

朱玮  王德 《地理学报》2009,64(4)

用模型方法研究消费者行为经历了从集合模型到个体模型的过程.随着计算机技术的进步,近十余年来多代理人技术得到了长足的发展.当前,将消费者个体行为模型和多代理人系统相结合来模拟商业街消费者活动,已经成为相关研究和实践领域的前沿方法.其主要优点在于能够使相关人员以单个消费者为基础,整合复杂的相关因素,预测整体或局部商业空间的动态运行效果,作为规划开发的依据.本文介绍由笔者基于NetLogo开发的一个模拟商业街消费者行为的多代理人模拟平台,包括系统的建构和模拟的流程.该模拟系统的核心由四个基于有限理性原理的消费者决策模型构成:回家决策、方向选择决策、休息决策、商店光顾决策.然后应用这个平台于研究上海南京东路消费者行为的实例.该数据收集于2007年,现场记录了消费者在南京东路的活动过程,并被用于拟合行为模型.将模拟的代理人个体行为集合后,于三方面同观察到的消费者实际行为作比较,包括从事不同活动的消费者数量随时间的变化、在各街道段中活动的消费者数量随时间的变化,以及单个商店中的消费者人次和延时;同时分析了模拟中的问题.结果显示该模拟平台总体上能够较好地预测消费者集合行为.  相似文献   

A critical evaluation of oxidation versus reduction during metamorphism of L and LL group chondrites,and implications for asteroid spectroscopy     

Heather K. Gastineau‐Lyons  Harry Y. McSween  Michael J. Gaffey 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2002,37(1):75-89

Abstract— Modal mineralogies of individual, equilibrated (petrologic type 4–6 L and LL chondrites have been measured using an electron microprobe mapping technique, and the chemical compositions of coexisting silicate minerals have been analyzed. Progressive changes in the relative abundances and in the molar Fe/Mn and Fe/Mg ratios of olivine, low‐Ca pyroxene, and diopside occur with increasing metamorphic grade. Variations in olivine/low‐Ca pyroxene ratios (Ol/Px) and in metal abundances and compositions with petrologic type support the hypothesis that oxidation of metallic iron accompanied thermal metamorphism in ordinary chondrites. Modal Ol/Px ratios are systematically lower than normative Ol/Px ratios for the same meteorites, suggesting that the commonly used C.I.P.W. norm calculation procedure may not adequately estimate silicate mineral abundances in reduced chondrites. Ol/Px ratios calculated from visible and near‐infrared (VISNIR) reflectance spectra of the same meteorites are not in agreement with other Ol/Px determinations, possibly because of spectral complexities arising from other minerals in chondrites. Characteristic features in VISNIR spectra are sensitive to the proportions and compositions of olivine and pyroxenes, the minerals most affected by oxidative metamorphism. This work may allow spectral calibration for the determination of mineralogy and petrologic type, and thus may be useful for spectroscopic studies of asteroids.  相似文献   

Melt inclusions in augite of the Nakhla martian meteorite: Evidence for basaltic parental melt     

Karen Rene Stockstill  Harry Y. McSween  Robert J. Bodnar 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2005,40(3):377-396

Abstract— Nakhla contains crystallized melt inclusions that were trapped in augite and olivine when these phases originally formed on Mars. Our study involved rehomogenization (slow‐heating and fast‐heating) experiments on multiphase melt inclusions in Nakhla augite. We studied melt inclusions trapped in augite because this phase re‐equilibrated with the external melt to a lesser extent than olivine and results could be directly compared with previous Nakhla melt inclusion studies. Following heating and homogenization of encapsulated melt inclusions, single mineral grains were mounted and polished to expose inclusions. Major element chemistry was determined by electron microprobe. The most primitive melt inclusion analyzed in Nakhla NA03 is basaltic and closely matches previously reported nakhlite parent melt compositions. MELTS equilibrium and fractional crystallization models calculated for NA03 and previous Nakhla parent melt estimates at QFM and QFM‐1 produced phase assemblages and compositions that can be compared to Nakhla. Of these models, equilibrium crystallization of NA03 at QFM‐1 produced the best match to mineral phases and compositions in Nakhla. In all models, olivine and augite co‐crystallize, consistent with the hypothesis that olivine is not xenocrystic but has undergone subsolidus re‐equilibration. In addition, measured melt inclusion compositions plot along the MELTS‐calculated liquid line of descent and may represent pockets of melt trapped at various stages during crystallization. We attempt to resolve discrepancies between previous estimates of the Nakhla parental melt composition and to reinterpret the results of a previous study of rehomogenized melt inclusions in Nakhla. Melt inclusions demonstrate that Nakhla is an igneous rock whose parent melt composition and crystallization history reflect planetary igneous processes.  相似文献