A Bayesian palaeoenvironmental transfer function model for acidified lakes     

Philip B. Holden  Anson W. Mackay  Gavin L. Simpson 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2008,39(4):551-566

A Bayesian approach to palaeoecological environmental reconstruction deriving from the unimodal responses generally exhibited by organisms to an environmental gradient is described. The approach uses Bayesian model selection to calculate a collection of probability-weighted, species-specific response curves (SRCs) for each taxon within a training set, with an explicit treatment for zero abundances. These SRCs are used to reconstruct the environmental variable from sub-fossilised assemblages. The approach enables a substantial increase in computational efficiency (several orders of magnitude) over existing Bayesian methodologies. The model is developed from the Surface Water Acidification Programme (SWAP) training set and is demonstrated to exhibit comparable predictive power to existing Weighted Averaging and Maximum Likelihood methodologies, though with improvements in bias; the additional explanatory power of the Bayesian approach lies in an explicit calculation of uncertainty for each individual reconstruction. The model is applied to reconstruct the Holocene acidification history of the Round Loch of Glenhead, including a reconstruction of recent recovery derived from sediment trap data. The Bayesian reconstructions display similar trends to conventional (Weighted Averaging Partial Least Squares) reconstructions but provide a better reconstruction of extreme pH and are more sensitive to small changes in diatom assemblages. The validity of the posteriors as an apparently meaningful representation of assemblage-specific uncertainty and the high computational efficiency of the approach open up the possibility of highly constrained multiproxy reconstructions.  相似文献   

Topographic controls upon soil macropore flow   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Joseph Holden 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2009,34(3):345-351

Macropores are important components of soil hydrology. The spatial distribution of macropore flow as a proportion of saturated hydraulic conductivity was tested on six humid–temperate slopes using transects of tension infiltrometer measurements. Automated water table and overland flow monitoring allowed the timing of, and differentiation between, saturation‐excess overland flow and infiltration‐excess overland flow occurrence on the slopes to be determined and related to tension‐infiltrometer measurements. Two slopes were covered with blanket peat, two with stagnohumic gleys and two with brown earth soils. None of the slopes had been disturbed by agricultural activity within the last 20 years. This controlled the potential for tillage impacts on macropores. The proportion of near‐surface macropore flow to saturated hydraulic conductivity was found to vary according to slope position. The spatial patterns were not the same for all hillslopes. On the four non‐peat slopes there was a relationship between locations of overland flow occurrence and reduced macroporosity. This relationship did not exist for the peat slopes investigated because they experienced overland flow across their whole slope surfaces. Nevertheless, they still had a distinctive spatial pattern of macropore flow according to slope position. For the other soils tested, parts of slopes that were susceptible to saturation‐excess overland flow (e.g. hilltoes or flat hilltops) tended to have least macropore flow. To a lesser extent, for the parts of slopes susceptible to infiltration‐excess overland flow, the proportion of macropore flow as a component of infiltration was also smaller compared with the rest of the slope. The roles of macropore creation and macropore infilling by sheet wash are discussed, and it is noted that the combination of these may result in distinctive topographically controlled spatial patterns of macropore flow. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

PESERA‐PEAT: a fluvial erosion model for blanket peatlands          下载免费PDF全文

Pengfei Li  Joseph Holden  Brian Irvine  Richard Grayson 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2016,41(14):2058-2077

In peatlands, fluvial erosion can lead to a dramatic decline in hydrological function, major changes in the net carbon balance and loss of biodiversity. Climate and land management change are thought to be important influences on rates of peat erosion. However, sediment production in peatlands is different to that of other soils and no models of erosion specifically for peatlands currently exist. Hence, forecasting the influence of future climate or spatially‐distributed management interventions on peat erosion is difficult. The PESERA‐GRID model was substantially modified in this study to include dominant blanket peat erosion processes. In the resulting fluvial erosion model, PESERA‐PEAT, freeze–thaw and desiccation processes were accounted for by a novel sediment supply index as key features of erosion. Land management practices were parameterized for their influence on vegetation cover, biomass and soil moisture condition. PESERA‐PEAT was numerically evaluated using available field data from four blanket peat‐covered catchments with different erosion conditions and management intensity. PESERA‐PEAT was found to be robust in modelling fluvial erosion in blanket peat. A sensitivity analysis of PESERA‐PEAT showed that modelled sediment yield was more sensitive to vegetation cover than other tested factors such as precipitation, temperature, drainage density and ditch/gully depth. Two versions of PESERA‐PEAT, equilibrium and time‐series, produced similar results under the same environmental conditions, facilitating the use of the model at different scales. The equilibrium model is suitable for assessing the high‐resolution spatial variability of average monthly peat erosion over the study period across large areas (national or global assessments), while the time‐series model is appropriate for investigating continuous monthly peat erosion throughout study periods across smaller areas or large regions using a coarser‐spatial resolution. PESERA‐PEAT will therefore support future investigations into the impact of climate change and management options on blanket peat erosion at various spatial and temporal scales. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Incorporating conceptual and interpretation uncertainty to mineral prospectivity modelling     

J.N.Burkin  M.D.Lindsay  S.A.Occhipinti  E.-J.Holden 《地学前缘(英文版)》2019,10(4):1383-1396

Prospectivity analyses are used to reduce the exploration search space for locating areas prospective for mineral deposits.The scale of a study and the type of mineral system associated with the deposit control the evidence layers used as proxies that represent critical ore genesis processes.In particular,knowledge-driven approaches(fuzzy logic)use a conceptual mineral systems model from which data proxies represent the critical components.These typically vary based on the scale of study and the type of mineral system being predicted.Prospectivity analyses utilising interpreted data to represent proxies for a mineral system model inherit the subjectivity of the interpretations and the uncertainties of the evidence layers used in the model.In the case study presented,the prospectivity for remobilised nickel sulphide(NiS)in the west Kimberley,Western Australia,is assessed with two novel techniques that objectively grade interpretations and accommodate alternative mineralisation scenarios.Exploration targets are then identified and supplied with a robustness assessment that reflects the variability of prospectivity value for each location when all models are considered.The first technique grades the strength of structural interpretations on an individual line-segment basis.Gradings are obtained from an objective measure of feature evidence,which is the quantification of specific patterns in geophysical data that are considered to reveal underlying structure.Individual structures are weighted in the prospectivity model with grading values correlated to their feature evidence.This technique allows interpreted features to contribute prospectivity proportional to their strength in feature evidence and indicates the level of associated stochastic uncertainty.The second technique aims to embrace the systemic uncertainty of modelling complex mineral systems.In this approach,multiple prospectivity maps are each generated with different combinations of confidence values applied to evidence layers to represent the diversity of processes potentially leading to ore deposition.With a suite of prospectivity maps,the most robust exploration targets are the locations with the highest prospectivity values showing the smallest range amongst the model suite.This new technique offers an approach that reveals to the modeller a range of alternative mineralisation scenarios while employing a sensible mineral systems model,robust modelling of prospectivity and significantly reducing the exploration search space for Ni.  相似文献   

The chronology and long term dynamics of a low energy river system: the Kelvin Valley,central Scotland     

R. Tipping  A. P. Jones  S. Carter  T. Holden  M. Cressey 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2008,33(6):910-922

The long term (Holocene) channel and floodplain dynamics of a low gradient, low energy, fine grained aggradational fluvial system within a formerly glaciated landscape in central Scotland, the Kelvin Valley, are described from a series of sediment stratigraphic transects and 12 ¹⁴C assays in a headwater reach between Kirkintilloch and Kilsyth. The ¹⁴C assays and dated archaeological sites on the floodplain together suggest that the River Kelvin ceased to aggrade more than 2000 years ago, probably much more, so the 4–6 m of channel and floodplain deposits are almost entirely of early to mid‐Holocene age. The Kelvin Valley is characterized, despite its low flow characteristics, by a highly variable floodplain architecture, in which some transects suggest long term channel stability and strong partitioning of floodplain sedimentation and others indicate high channel mobility. This variation makes the application of general models of fluvial evolution difficult. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Fire decreases near‐surface hydraulic conductivity and macropore flow in blanket peat          下载免费PDF全文

Joseph Holden  Catherine Wearing  Sheila Palmer  Benjamin Jackson  Kerrylyn Johnston  Lee E. Brown 《水文研究》2014,28(5):2868-2876

Many peatlands have been subjected to wildfire or prescribed burning, but it is not known how these fires influence near‐surface hydrological processes. Macropores are important flowpaths in the upper layers of blanket peat and were investigated through the use of tension disc infiltrometers, which also provide data on saturated hydraulic conductivity. Measurements were performed on unburnt peat (U), where prescribed burning had taken place 2 years (B2), 4 years (B4) and >15 (B15+) years prior to sampling, and where a wildfire (W) had taken place 4 months prior to sampling. Where there had been recent burning (B2, B4 and W), saturated hydraulic conductivity was approximately three times lower than where there was no burning (U) or where burning was last conducted >15 years ago (B15+). Similarly, the contribution of macropore flow to overall infiltration was significantly lower (between 12% and 25% less) in the recently burnt treatments compared to B15+ and U. There were no significant differences in saturated hydraulic conductivity or macropore flow between peat that had been subject to recent wildfire (W) and those that had undergone recent prescribed burning (B2 and B4). The results suggest that fire influences the near‐surface hydrological functioning of peatlands but that recovery in terms of saturated hydraulic conductivity and macropore flow may be possible within two decades if there are no further fires. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Evaluating methods for quantifying cation exchange in mildly calcareous sediments in Northern Alberta     

A.A. Holden  K.U. Mayer  A.C. Ulrich 《Applied Geochemistry》2012

Cation exchange capacity (CEC) and exchangeable cation composition are important properties in defining water–sediment interactions in contaminant transport scenarios, such as the seepage of process-affected water from oil sands tailings impoundments. At present, detailed characterization of these properties has been overlooked in the surficial Pleistocene sediments of the Athabasca Oil Sands region in Canada. Although a great variety of methods for determining CEC exist and continue to be developed, there is a deficiency in detailed comparisons amongst these methods in the literature, and consequently uncertainty still remains as to which extractants/methods are most suitable for use with sediments containing partially soluble carbonate salts. The present study (1) conducts an up-to-date evaluation of several distinct methods for their suitability in characterizing cation exchange properties in mildly calcareous sediments; using them to (2) evaluate the sorptive capacity and easily displaceable cations of mildly calcareous, surficial sediments near Fort McMurray, Alberta. Four conceptually different CEC methods were chosen: (a) a summation method (Lithium Chloride extractant); (b) a method that displaces an index cation after intermediary washes (Sodium Acetate–Ammonium Acetate); (c) a method using a high affinity cation complex (Silver Thiourea); and (d) a titration method using an organic cationic dye (Methylene Blue). Exchangeable cations were characterized using the Lithium Chloride and Silver Thiourea methods. Analysis suggests that the Methylene Blue test is least impacted by the presence of carbonate mineral phases. Results from field sediments suggest that the exchangeable cations, in decreasing abundance, consist of Ca > Mg > K > NH₄ > Na; while the CEC was found to be 4.7 ± 2.7 meq 100 g⁻¹ in the clay-rich glacial till, 0.7 ± 0.0 meq 100 g⁻¹ in the underlying sand and 4.1 ± 2.3 meq 100 g⁻¹ in the till-sand transition zone.  相似文献   

A Lagrangian approach to nonlinear modeling of anti-roll tanks     

Christian Holden  Tristan Perez  Thor I. Fossen 《Ocean Engineering》2011,38(2-3):341-359

This paper presents two novel nonlinear models of u-shaped anti-roll tanks for ships, and their linearizations. In addition, a third simplified nonlinear model is presented. The models are derived using Lagrangian mechanics. This formulation not only simplifies the modeling process, but also allows one to obtain models that satisfy energy-related physical properties. The proposed nonlinear models and their linearizations are validated using model-scale experimental data. Unlike other models in the literature, the nonlinear models in this paper are valid for large roll amplitudes. Even at moderate roll angles, the nonlinear models have three orders of magnitude lower mean square error relative to experimental data than the linear models.  相似文献   

Characterisation and sediment–source linkages of intertidal sediment of the UK’s north Sefton Coast using magnetic and textural properties: findings and limitations     

Vanessa J. C. Holden  Annie T. Worsley  Colin A. Booth  Graham Lymbery 《Ocean Dynamics》2011,61(12):2157-2179

Sediment pathways and links to offshore processes are considered in the textural and magnetic characteristics of sediments of the intertidal flats and salt marshes of the north Sefton Coast, UK. In addition, sediment from a range of intertidal, marine and fluvial locations within the northwest region has similarly been characterised. Subsequently, the characteristics of these regional sediments, using a multivariate statistical approach of R- and Q-mode factor analyses, have been used to investigate the sediment transport pathways of the north Sefton Coast sediment. The benefits of fractionating sediment samples have been observed, and by using combinations of textural and isothermal remanent magnetic measurements, specific environments within the research have been successfully differentiated and characterised. Linkages between potential sediment source areas have also been established on a particle size-related basis.  相似文献   

Hydrogeology,Chemical and Microbial Activity Measurement Through Deep Permafrost     

Randy L. Stotler  Shaun K. Frape  Barry M. Freifeld  Brian Holden  Tullis C. Onstott  Timo Ruskeeniemi  Eric Chan 《Ground water》2011,49(3):348-364

Little is known about hydrogeochemical conditions beneath thick permafrost, particularly in fractured crystalline rock, due to difficulty in accessing this environment. The purpose of this investigation was to develop methods to obtain physical, chemical, and microbial information about the subpermafrost environment from a surface‐drilled borehole. Using a U‐tube, gas and water samples were collected, along with temperature, pressure, and hydraulic conductivity measurements, 420 m below ground surface, within a 535 m long, angled borehole at High Lake, Nunavut, Canada, in an area with 460‐m‐thick permafrost. Piezometric head was well above the base of the permafrost, near land surface. Initial water samples were contaminated with drill fluid, with later samples <40% drill fluid. The salinity of the non‐drill fluid component was <20,000 mg/L, had a Ca/Na ratio above 1, with δ¹⁸O values ～5‰ lower than the local surface water. The fluid isotopic composition was affected by the permafrost‐formation process. Nonbacteriogenic CH₄ was present and the sample location was within methane hydrate stability field. Sampling lines froze before uncontaminated samples from the subpermafrost environment could be obtained, yet the available time to obtain water samples was extended compared to previous studies. Temperature measurements collected from a distributed temperature sensor indicated that this issue can be overcome easily in the future. The lack of methanogenic CH₄ is consistent with the high sulfate concentrations observed in cores. The combined surface‐drilled borehole/U‐tube approach can provide a large amount of physical, chemical, and microbial data from the subpermafrost environment with few, controllable, sources of contamination.  相似文献