A two-stage time series model for monthly hydrological projections under climate change in the Lim River basin (southeast Europe)     

Milan Stojković  Jasna Plavšić  Stevan Prohaska  Dragutin Pavlović  Jovan Despotović 《水文科学杂志》2020,65(3):387-400

ABSTRACT

Climate change projections of precipitation and temperature suggest that Serbia could be one of the most affected regions in southeastern Europe. To prepare adaptation measures, the impact of climate changes on water resources needs to be assessed. Pilot research is carried out for the Lim River basin, in southeastern Europe, to predict monthly flows under different climate scenarios. For estimation of future water availability, an alternative approach of developing a deterministic-stochastic time series model is chosen. The proposed two-stage time series model consists of several components: trend, long-term periodicity, seasonality and the stochastic component. The latter is based on a transfer function model with two input variables, precipitation and temperature, as climatic drivers. The Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency for the observed period 1950–2012 is 0.829. The model is applied for the long-term hydrological prediction under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) emissions scenarios for the future time frame 2013–2070.  相似文献   

Formation Of Coronal Mhd Shock Waves – I. The Basic Mechanism     

B. Vršnak  S. Lulić 《Solar physics》2000,196(1):157-180

The formation and evolution of a large amplitude MHD perturbation propagating perpendicular to the magnetic field in a perfectly conducting low plasma is studied. The perturbation is generated by an abrupt expansion of the source region. Explicit expressions for the time and the distance needed for the transformation of the perturbation's leading edge into a shock wave are derived. The results are applied to coronal conditions and the dynamic spectra of the radio emission excited by the shock are synthesized, reproducing metric and kilometric type II bursts. The features corresponding to the metric type II burst precursor and the moving type IV burst in the case of kilometric type II bursts are identified. A specific radio signature that is sometimes observed at the onset of a metric type II burst is found to appear immediately before the shock wave formation due to the associated growth of the magnetic field gradient. Time delays and starting frequencies of bursts' onsets are calculated and presented as a function of the impulsiveness of the source-region expansion, using different values of the ambient Alfvén velocity and various time profiles of the expansion velocity. The results are confronted with the observations of metric and kilometric type II solar radio bursts.  相似文献   

Site Response in Las Vegas Valley, Nevada from NTS Explosions and Earthquake Data     

Arthur Rodgers  Hrvoje Tkalcic  David McCallen  Shawn Larsen  Catherine Snelson 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2006,163(1):55-80

We report site response in Las Vegas Valley (LVV) from historical recordings of Nevada Test Site (NTS) nuclear explosions and earthquake recordings from permanent and temporary seismic stations. Our data set significantly improves the spatial coverage of LVV over previous studies, especially in the northern, deeper parts of the basin. Site response at stations in LVV was measured for frequencies in the range 0.2–5.0 Hz using Standard Spectral Ratios (SSR) and Horizontal-Vertical Spectral Ratios (HVR). For the SSR measurements we used a reference site (approximately NEHRP B ``rock' classification) located on Frenchman Mountain outside the basin. Site response at sedimentary sites is variable in LVV with average amplifications approaching a factor of 10 at some frequencies. We observed peaks in the site response curves at frequencies clustered near 0.6, 1.2 and 2.0 Hz, with some sites showing additional lower amplitude peaks at higher frequencies. The spatial pattern of site response is strongly correlated with the reported depth to basement for frequencies between 0.2 and 3.0 Hz, although the frequency of peak amplification does not show a similar correlation. For a few sites where we have geotechnical shear velocities, the amplification shows a correlation with the average upper 30-meter shear velocities, V₃₀. We performed two-dimensional finite difference simulations and reproduced the observed peak site amplifications at 0.6 and 1.2 Hz with a low velocity near-surface layer with shear velocities 600–750 m/s and a thickness of 100–200 m. These modeling results indicate that the amplitude and frequencies of site response peaks in LVV are strongly controlled by shallow velocity structure.  相似文献   

Seeding agent dispersion within convective cloud as simulated by a 3-D numerical model     

M. Ćurić  D. Janc  V. Vučković 《Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics》2006,92(3-4):205-216

Summary The three-dimensional mesoscale cloud-resolving model ARPS (Advanced Regional Prediction System) was used to investigate the dispersal of an inert seeding agent within a cumulonimbus (Cb) cloud developing from two different initial states. In this paper, we stress the influence vortices in the cloud have on seeding agent dispersion. If a strong directional ambient wind shear is present in the lowest layer, a vortex pair formed at the flanks of the simulated cloud. Following the velocity field, a considerable amount of the injected seeding agent would be thrown out to the rear of the cloud, where both updrafts associated with vortices and downdrafts occurred. After a short time the agent was present only in the cloud periphery. If the Cb cloud developed under conditions where directional ambient wind shear did not exist, seeding agent dispersion would be quite different. In this case, almost all the seeding agent was transported into the main updraft, while the residence time of the agent within the cloud was longer due to the weaker cloud dynamics. Therefore, we must pay attention to whether or not the cloud contains vortices when we make the decision where to seed. This is necessary in order to minimize the loss of seeding material.  相似文献   

Comparison of three mathematical models for the estimation of 10-day drain discharge     

K. Pandžić  I. Šimunić  F. Tomić  S. Husnjak  T. Likso  D. Petošić 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2006,85(1-2):107-115

Summary This paper presents an the evaluation of three mathematical models for the estimation of 10-day drain discharge using weather, pedological and phenological parameters. One model uses modified Palmer’s procedure for the calculation of water balance components and the second two use empirical multiple linear regression. The models have been applied to data of an amelioration experimental field in central Croatia (south-western part of the Pannonian Lowland), where a set of average 10-day air temperature and relative humidity data, average wind speed, cumulative precipitation and drain discharge amounts, insolation and soil moisture data and vegetation indices have been collected. The experiment has been performed during the period 1990–1992. The models have been tested by comparing estimated and observed 10-day drain discharge amounts. All models mainly give acceptable cumulative results although their accuracy depends on the season.  相似文献   

Spectral analysis of the “Koshava” wind     

M. Unkašević  I. Tošić  M. Obradović 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2007,89(3-4):239-244

Summary “Koshava” is a gusty wind of changeable intensity, blowing from a south-easterly direction, over Serbia, Romania and Bulgaria. It is caused by the interaction between the synoptic circulation and the orography of the Carpathian and the Balkan mountains. This paper analyzes wind data measured at the Belgrade-Observatory during the longest period of consecutive days of “Koshava” which occurred from 14 January to 13 February 1972. Mean hourly wind speed data has been examined using spectral analysis. The power spectra are calculated using autocorrelation spectral analysis, the multi-taper method and wavelet transform. The maximum of which is about 122 h (5 days) corresponds to the time span of synoptic processes.  相似文献   

A Photometric Investigation of the Eclipsing System OO Aql     

G. Djurašević  S. Erkapić 《Astrophysics and Space Science》1998,262(3):305-313

The paper is concerning with the light curve analysis of an active binary system of OO Aql. Basic orbital and physical parameters of this system were estimated by analysing photometric observations by Lafta and Grainger (1985) and Essam et al. (1992). Both groups of observations gave quite different light curves with a conspicuous asymmetry arising from unequal height of successive maxima. A slightly changed programme by Djuraevi (1992a) was applied. The programme was based on the Roche model and it included an option of overcontact configuration and active (bright or dark) spotted regions on the system's components. An inverse-problem method by Djuraevi (1992b) was used to estimate the parameters of the system and active regions. The light-curve analysis suggested a significant change in the system. For Lafta and Grainger's light curves our analysis showed the presence of a dark spotted area near the polar region of the primary component. This dark area covered about 22% of the primary's hemisphere. Essam et al.'s light curves had very complex shape. In this case the mechanism of the mass transfer and the exchange of the thermal energy between the components could produce a bright-spot (bs) area on the secondary, near the Lagrange equilibrium point L₁ around the neck region between the stars. To explain a sharp increase of the system's brightness in the B filter immediately after the secondary minimum, we had to introduce also a hot-spot (hs) area of a high temperature contrast on the secondary. With the increase of the brightness in the V-filter being of much lower intensity, this hot spot region could be taken as a local eruption. The behaviour of the B–V colour index with the orbital phase is in favour of this hypothesis also. The obtained results show that the light-curve changes are due to development and moving of active spot regions on the components.  相似文献   

Age of amphibolites associated with alpine peridotites in the Dinaride ophiolite zone,Yugoslavia   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Marvin A. Lanphere  Robert G. Coleman  Steven Karamata  Jakob Pamić 《Earth and Planetary Science Letters》1975,26(3):271-276

Amphibolites associated with alpine peridotites in the Central Ophiolite zone in Yugoslavia have K-Ar ages of 160–170 m.y. These amphibolites and associated peridotites underwent deep-seated metamorphism prior to tectonic emplacement into the sedimentary-volcanic assemblage of the Dinarides. The alpine peridotites and associated local rocks of the ophiolite suite are interpreted as Jurassic oceanic crust and upper mantle.  相似文献   

An example of a waveform of the frontal profile     

M. Ćurić 《Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics》1979,28(2-3):187-193

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On forecasting of cyclogenesis in the West Mediterranean and other areas bounded by mountain ranges by baroclinic model     

Dr. Djuro Radinović 《Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics》1965,14(3):279-299

Summary Changes occurring in the thermal structure of air masses in the Alps area and the West Mediterranean region, during cyclonic developments in the Gulf of Genoa, have been considered. The effect of the height and the form of the mountain ranges as well as that of the nonadiabatic processes, on the deformation of the thickness pattern, have been discussed. These factors have been further taken into consideration for a modification of the equations used inEstoque's method for the baroclinic model, and a new method has been developed for forecasting cyclogenesis in regions bounded by mountain ranges.

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Zusasmmenfassung Es werden die Änderungen der thermischen Struktur der Luftmassen im Alpengebiet und im westlichen Mittelmeerraum bei der Entwicklung von Zyklonen im Golf von Genua aufgezeigt und die Einflüsse von Höhe und Form der Gebirgszüge sowie von nichtadiabatischen Vorgängen auf die Deformation der relativen Topographie besprochen. Diese Faktoren werden auch zur Modifikation der in der Methode vonEstoque für ein baroklines Modell verwendeten Gleichungen in Betracht gezogen und damit wird eine neue Methode zur Vorhersage der Zyklogenese unter dem Einfluß von Gebirgszügen entwickelt.

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Résumé On expose dans ce mémoire à quelles modifications la structure thermique des masses d'air est soumise dans la région des Alpes et dans le bassin occidental de la Méditerranée lors du développement de dépressions sur le Golfe de Gênes. On y discute en outre l'influence de la hauteur et de la forme des chaînes de montagnes ainsi que celle des processus non-adiabatiques sur des déformations de la topographie relative. Tous ces éléments sont pris en considération pour leur adapter les équations utilisées dans le modèle baroclined'Estoque. Par là, on accède à une nouvelle méthode de prévision de la cyclogénèse, méthode qui tient compte de l'influence des chaînes de montagnes.

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With 5 Figures  相似文献