A Spatial Variant of the Basic Reproduction Number for the New Orleans Yellow Fever Epidemic of 1878     

Andrew Curtis  Jacqueline W. Mills  Jason K. Blackburn 《The Professional geographer》2007,59(4):492-502

A spatial variant of the basic reproduction number (R₀), here defined as the number of subsequent deaths attributed to an initial mortality, can be used to identify geographic variation within an epidemic. A spatial R₀ was calculated at the neighborhood level, here defined by a 50‐m buffer surrounding an index case, for mortality data from the 1878 yellow fever epidemic of New Orleans. The highest number of secondary mortalities linked to a neighborhood index case was twelve, with a further eighty‐seven extrapolated morbidity cases. Results also highlight the importance of multideath residences and cultural contacts in neighborhood‐level disease spread.  相似文献   

A spatial perspective for predicting enrollment in a regional pharmacy school     

Ke Chen  Jason Kennedy  John M. Kovacs  Chunhua Zhang 《GeoJournal》2007,70(2-3):133-143

Having the ability to predict enrollment is an important task for any school’s recruiting team. The purpose of this study was to identify significant factors that can be used to predict the spatial distribution of enrollments. As a case study, we used East Tennessee State University (ETSU) pharmacy school, a regional pharmacy school located in the Appalachian Mountains. Through the application of a negative binomial regression model, we found that the most important indicators of enrollment volume for the ETSU pharmacy school were Euclidean distance, probability (based on competing pharmacy schools’ prestige, driving distance between schools and home and tuition costs), and the natural barrier of the Appalachian Mountains. Using these factors, together with other control variables, we successfully predicted the spatial distribution of enrollments for ETSU pharmacy school. Interestingly, gender also surfaced as a variable for predicting the pharmacy school’s enrollment. We found female students are more sensitive to the geographic proximity of home to school.  相似文献   

Volcanoes of the Tibesti massif (Chad,northern Africa)     

Jason L. Permenter  Clive Oppenheimer 《Bulletin of Volcanology》2007,69(6):609-626

The Tibesti massif, one of the most prominent features of the Sahara desert, covers an area of some 100,000 km². Though largely absent from scientific inquiry for several decades, it is one of the world’s major volcanic provinces, and a key example of continental hot spot volcanism. The intense activity of the TVP began as early as the Oligocene, though the major products that mark its surface date from Lower Miocene to Quaternary (Furon (Geology of Africa. Oliver & Boyd, Edinburgh (trans 1963, orig French 1960), pp 1–377, 1963)); Gourgaud and Vincent (J Volcanol Geotherm Res 129:261–290, 2004). We present here a new and consistent analysis of each of the main components of the Tibesti Volcanic Province (TVP), based on examination of multispectral imagery and digital elevation data acquired from the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER). Our synthesis of these individual surveys shows that the TVP is made up of several shield volcanoes (up to 80 km diameter) with large-scale calderas, extensive lava plateaux and flow fields, widespread tephra deposits, and a highly varied structural relief. We compare morphometric characteristics of the major TVP structures with other hot spot volcanoes (the Hawaiian Islands, the Galápagos Islands, the Canary and Cape Verdes archipelagos, Jebel Marra (western Sudan), and Martian volcanoes), and consider the implications of differing tectonic setting (continental versus oceanic), the thickness and velocity of the lithosphere, the relative sizes of main volcanic features (e.g. summit calderas, steep slopes at summit regions), and the extent and diversity of volcanic features. These comparisons reveal morphologic similarities between volcanism in the Tibesti, the Galápagos, and Western Sudan but also some distinct features of the TVP. Additionally, we find that a relatively haphazard spatial development of the TVP has occurred, with volcanism initially appearing in the Central TVP and subsequently migrating to both the Eastern and Western TVP regions. Electronic supplementary material Supplementary material is available in the online version of this article at and is accessible for authorized users.  相似文献   

Listen to Jodrell     

Stuart Lowe 《Astronomy& Geophysics》2007,48(4):4.25-4.25

  相似文献   

The physical volcanology of the 1600 eruption of Huaynaputina, southern Peru   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Nancy K. Adams  Shanaka L. de Silva  Stephen Self  Guido Salas  Steven Schubring  Jason L. Permenter  Kendra Arbesman 《Bulletin of Volcanology》2001,62(8):493-518

Volcán Huaynaputina is a group of four vents located at 16°36'S, 70°51'W in southern Peru that produced one of the largest eruptions of historical times when ~11 km³ of magma was erupted during the period 19 February to 6 March 1600. The main eruptive vents are located at 4200 m within an erosion-modified amphitheater of a significantly older stratovolcano. The eruption proceeded in three stages. Stage I was an ~20-h sustained plinian eruption on 19-20 February that produced an extensive dacite pumice fall deposit (magma volume ~2.6 km³). Throughout medial-distal and distal parts of the dispersal area, a fine-grained plinian ashfall unit overlies the pumice fall deposit. This very widespread ash (magma volume ~6.2 km³) has been recognized in Antarctic ice cores. A short period of quiescence allowed local erosion of the uppermost stage-I deposits and was followed by renewed but intermittent explosive activity between 22 and 26 February (stage II). This activity resulted in intercalated pyroclastic flow and pumice fall deposits (~1 km³). The flow deposits are valley confined, whereas associated co-ignimbrite ash fall is found overlying the plinian ash deposit. Following another period of quiescence, vulcanian-type explosions of stage III commenced on 28 February and produced crudely bedded ash, lapilli, and bombs of dense dacite (~1 km³). Activity ceased on 6 March. Compositions erupted are predominantly high-K dacites with a phenocryst assemblage of plagioclase>hornblende>biotite>Fe-Ti oxides-apatite. Major elements are broadly similar in all three stages, but there are a few important differences. Stage-I pumice has less evolved glass compositions (~73% SiO₂), lower crystal contents (17-20%), lower density (1.0-1.3 g/cm³), and phase equilibria suggest higher temperature and volatile contents. Stage-II and stage-III juvenile clasts have more evolved glass (~76% SiO₂) compositions, higher crystal contents (25-35%), higher densities (up to 2.2 g/cm³), and lower temperature and volatile contents. All juvenile clasts show mineralogical evidence for thermal disequilibrium. Inflections on a plot of log thickness vs area^1/2 for the fall deposits suggest that the pumice fall and the plinian ash fall were dispersed under different conditions and may have been derived from different parts of the eruption column system. The ash appears to have been dispersed mainly from the uppermost parts of the umbrella cloud by upper-level winds, whereas the pumice fall may have been derived from the lower parts of the umbrella cloud and vertical part of the eruption column and transported by a lower-altitude wind field. Thickness half distances and clast half distances for the pumice fall deposit suggests a column neutral buoyancy height of 24-32 km and a total column height of 34-46 km. The estimated mass discharge rate for the ~20-h-long stage-I eruption is 2.4᎒⁸ kg/s and the volumetric discharge rate is ~3.6᎒⁵ m³/s. The pumice fall deposit has a dispersal index (Hildreth and Drake 1992) of 4.4, and its index of fragmentation is at least 89%, reflecting the dominant volume of fines produced. Of the 11 km³ total volume of dacite magma erupted in 1600, approximately 85% was evacuated during stage 1. The three main vents range in size from ~70 to ~400 m. Alignment of these vents and a late-stage dyke parallel to the NNW-SSE trend defined by older volcanics suggest that the eruption initiated along a fissure that developed along pre-existing weaknesses. During stage I this fissure evolved into a large flared vent, vent 2, with a diameter of approximately 400 m. This vent was active throughout stage II, at the end of which a dome was emplaced within it. During stage III this dome was eviscerated forming the youngest vent in the group, vent 3. A minor extra-amphitheater vent was produced during the final event of the eruptive sequence. Recharge may have induced magma to rise away from a deep zone of magma generation and storage. Subsequently, vesiculation in the rising magma batch, possibly enhanced by interaction with an ancient hydrothermal system, triggered and fueled the sustained Plinian eruption of stage I. A lower volatile content in the stage-II and stage-III magma led to transitional column behavior and pyroclastic flow generation in stage II. Continued magma uprise led to emplacement of a dome which was subsequently destroyed during stage III. No caldera collapse occurred because no shallow magma chamber developed beneath this volcano.  相似文献   

Wind-forced continental shelf waves from a geographical origin     

Jason H. Middleton  Andrew Cunningham 《Continental Shelf Research》1984,3(3):215-232

The response of a barotropic coastal ocean on a step-shaped continental shelf to a traveling sinusoidal wind stress forcing is predicted theoretically using a frictional force proportional to the alongshore current velocity. This theory is compared to a small set of observations from the northeast coast of Australia where a sudden widening of the continental shelf provides a geographical origin. The comparison is accomplished by means of frequency response functions relating alongshore wind stress with alongshore velocity. Amplitudes of the response functions are predicted to increase with alongshore distance equatorward and also to decrease with frequency at any location. These predictions are verified by the measurements. Predicted phase lags are generally less than about 30°, with observations agreeing with theory to within about 20°C. In general, the measurements provide reasonable evidence to support the theory of wind-forced continental shelf waves from a geographical origin.  相似文献   

Surveillance for previously unmonitored organic contaminants in the San Francisco Estuary     

Oros DR  Jarman WM  Lowe T  David N  Lowe S  Davis JA 《Marine pollution bulletin》2003,46(9):1102-1110

The San Francisco Estuary Regional Monitoring Program initiated surveillance monitoring to identify previously unmonitored synthetic organic contaminants in the San Francisco Estuary. Organic extracts of water samples were analyzed using gas chromatography-mass spectrometry in full scan mode. The major contaminant classes identified in the samples were fire retardants, pesticides, personal care product ingredients, and plasticizers. Evidence from the literature suggests that some of these contaminants can persist in the environment, induce toxicity, and accumulate in marine biota and in higher food chain consumers. The major sources of these contaminants into the marine environment are the discharge of municipal and industrial wastewater effluents, urban stormwater, and agricultural runoff. As a proactive effort, it is suggested that surveillance studies be used routinely in monitoring programs to identify and prevent potential problem contaminants from harming the marine environment.  相似文献   

Influence of vegetation change on watershed hydrology: implications for paleoclimatic interpretation of lacustrine δ18O records     

Michael F. Rosenmeier  David A. Hodell  Mark Brenner  Jason H. Curtis  Jonathan B. Martin  Flavio S. Anselmetti  Daniel Ariztegui  Thomas P. Guilderson 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2002,27(1):117-131

Stratigraphic shifts in the oxygen isotopic (¹⁸O) and trace element (Mg and Sr) composition of biogenic carbonate from tropical lake sediment cores are often interpreted as a proxy record of the changing relation between evaporation and precipitation (E/P). Holocene ¹⁸O and Mg and Sr records from Lakes Salpetén and Petén Itzá, Guatemala were apparently affected by drainage basin vegetation changes that influenced watershed hydrology, thereby confounding paleoclimatic interpretations. Oxygen isotope values and trace element concentrations in the two lowland lakes were greatest between ~ 9000 and 6800 ¹⁴C-yr BP, suggesting relatively high E/P, but pollen data indicate moist conditions and extensive forest cover in the early Holocene. The discrepancy between pollen- and geochemically-inferred climate conditions may be reconciled if the high early Holocene ¹⁸O and trace element values were controlled principally by low surface runoff and groundwater flow to the lake, rather than high E/P. Dense forest cover in the early Holocene would have increased evapotranspiration and soil moisture storage, thereby reducing delivery of meteoric water to the lakes. Carbonate ¹⁸O and Mg and Sr decreased between 7200 and 3500 ¹⁴C-yr BP in Lake Salpetén and between 6800 and 5000 ¹⁴C-yr BP in Lake Petén Itzá. This decline coincided with palynologically documented forest loss that may have led to increased surface and groundwater flow to the lakes. In Lake Salpetén, minimum ¹⁸O values (i.e., high lake levels) occurred between 3500 and 1800 ¹⁴C-yr BP. Relatively high lake levels were confirmed by ¹⁴C-dated aquatic gastropods from subaerial soil profiles ~ 1.0–7.5 m above present lake stage. High lake levels were a consequence of lower E/P and/or greater surface runoff and groundwater inflow caused by human-induced deforestation.  相似文献   

The response of fishes to submerged aquatic vegetation complexity in two ecoregions of the mid-Atlantic bight: Buzzards Bay and Chesapeake Bay     

Jason C. Wyda  Linda A. Deegan  Jeffrey E. Hughes  Melissa J. Weaver 《Estuaries and Coasts》2002,25(1):86-100

Estuarine seagrass ecosystems provide important habitat for fish and invertebrates and changes in these systems may alter their ability to support fish. The response of fish assemblages to alteration of eelgrass (Zostera marina) ecosystems in two ecoregions of the Mid-Atlantic Bight (Buzzards Bay and Chesapeake Bay) was evaluated by sampling historical eelgrass sites that currently span a broad range of stress and habitat quality. In two widely separated ecoregions with very different fish faunas, degradation and loss of submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) habitat has lead to declines in fish standing stock and species richness. The abundance, biomass, and species richness of the fish assemblage were significantly higher at sites that have high levels of eelgrass habitat complexity (biomass >100 wet g m^?2; density <100 shotts m^?2) compared to sites that have reduced eelgrass (biomass <100 wet g m^?2; density <100 shoots m^?2) or that have completely lost eelgrass. Abundance, biomass, and species richness at reduced eelgrass complexity sites also were more variable than at high eelgrass complexity habitats. Low SAV complexity sites had higher proportions of pelagic species that are not dependent on benthic habitat structure for feeding or refuge. Most species had greater abundance and were found more frequently at sites that have eelgrass. The replacement of SAV habitats by benthic macroalgae, which occurred in Buzzards Bay but not Chesapeake Bay, did not provide an equivalent habitat to seagrass. Nutrient enrichment-related degradation of eelgrass habitat has diminished the overall capacity of estuaries to support fish populations.  相似文献   

Link between SSZ ophiolite formation, emplacement and arc inception, Northland, New Zealand: U–Pb SHRIMP constraints; Cenozoic SW Pacific tectonic implications     

Scott A. Whattam  John Malpas  Ian E.M. Smith  Jason R. Ali 《Earth and Planetary Science Letters》2006,250(3-4):606-632

New U–Pb age-data from zircons separated from a Northland ophiolite gabbro yield a mean ²⁰⁶Pb/²³⁸U age of 31.6 ± 0.2 Ma, providing support for a recently determined 28.3 ± 0.2 Ma SHRIMP age of an associated plagiogranite and  29–26 Ma ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar ages (n = 9) of basalts of the ophiolite. Elsewhere, Miocene arc-related calc-alkaline andesite dikes which intrude the ophiolitic rocks contain zircons which yield mean ²⁰⁶Pb/²³⁸U ages of 20.1 ± 0.2 and 19.8 ± 0.2 Ma. The ophiolite gabbro and the andesites both contain rare inherited zircons ranging from 122–104 Ma. The Early Cretaceous zircons in the arc andesites are interpreted as xenocrysts from the Mt. Camel basement terrane through which magmas of the Northland Miocene arc lavas erupted. The inherited zircons in the ophiolite gabbros suggest that a small fraction of this basement was introduced into the suboceanic mantle by subduction and mixed with mantle melts during ophiolite formation.

We postulate that the tholeiitic suite of the ophiolite represents the crustal segment of SSZ lithosphere (SSZL) generated in the southern South Fiji Basin (SFB) at a northeast-dipping subduction zone that was initiated at about 35 Ma. The subduction zone nucleated along a pre-existing transform boundary separating circa 45–20 Ma oceanic lithosphere to the north and west of the Northland Peninsula from nascent back arc basin lithosphere of the SFB. Construction of the SSZL propagated southward along the transform boundary as the SFB continued to unzip to the southeast. After subduction of a large portion of oceanic lithosphere by about 26 Ma and collision of the SSZL with New Zealand, compression between the Australian Plate and the Pacific Plate was taken up along a new southwest-dipping subduction zone behind the SSZL. Renewed volcanism began in the oceanic forearc at 25 Ma producing boninitic-like, SSZ and within-plate alkalic and calc-alkaline rocks. Rocks of these types temporally overlap ophiolite emplacement and subsequent Miocene continental arc construction.  相似文献