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The purpose of this paper is to suggest how detailed single-pulse observations of slow radio pulsars may be utilized to construct an empirical model for their emission. It links the observational synthesis developed in a series of papers by Rankin in the 1980s and 90s to the more recent empirical feedback model of Wright (2003a) by regarding the entire pulsar magnetosphere as a non-steady, non-linear interactive system with a natural built-in delay. It is argued that the enhanced role of the outer gap in such a system indicates an evolutionary link to younger pulsars, in which this region is thought to be highly active, and that pulsar magnetospheres should no longer be seen as being driven by events on the neutron stars polar cap, but as having more in common with planetary magnetospheres and auroral phenomena.Received: 8 May 2003, Published online: 14 November 2003 Correspondence to: Joanna M. Rankin. On leave from: Physics Department, University of Vermont, Burlington, VT 05405, USA  相似文献   
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Modelling peak accelerations from earthquakes   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
This paper deals with the prediction of peak horizontal accelerations with emphasis on seismic risk and insurance concerns. Non‐linear mixed effects models are used to analyse well‐known earthquake data and the consequences of mis‐specifying assumptions on the error term are quantified. A robust fit of the usual model, using recently developed robust weighted maximum likelihood estimators, is presented. Outlying data are automatically identified and subsequently investigated. A more appropriate model accounting for the extreme value nature of the responses, is also developed and implemented. The implication on acceleration predictions is demonstrated. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   
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This paper presents a novel approach to allocation of spatially correlated data, such as emission inventories, to finer spatial scales, conditional on covariate information observable in a fine grid. Spatial dependence is modelled with the conditional autoregressive structure introduced into a linear model as a random effect. The maximum likelihood approach to inference is employed, and the optimal predictors are developed to assess missing values in a fine grid. An example of ammonia emission inventory is used to illustrate the potential usefulness of the proposed technique. The results indicate that inclusion of a spatial dependence structure can compensate for less adequate covariate information. For the considered ammonia inventory, the fourfold allocation benefited greatly from incorporation of the spatial component, while for the ninefold allocation this advantage was limited, but still evident. In addition, the proposed method allows correction of the prediction bias encountered for the upper range emissions in the linear regression models.  相似文献   
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A direct comparison among highly uncertain inventories of emissions is inadequate and may lead to paradoxes. This issue is of particular importance in the case of greenhouse gases. This paper reviews the methods for the comparison of uncertain inventories in the context of compliance checking. The problem is treated as a comparison of uncertain alternatives. It provides a categorization and ranking of the inventories which can induce compliance checking conditions. Two groups of techniques to compare uncertain estimates are considered in the paper: probabilistic and fuzzy approaches. They show certain similarities which are revealed and stressed throughout the paper. The group of methods most suitable for the compliance purpose is distinguished. They introduce new conditions for fulfilling compliance, depending on inventory uncertainty. These new conditions considerably change the present approach, where only the reported values of inventories are accounted for.  相似文献   
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Joanna Furno 《Icarus》2007,189(1):246-255
The equilibrium tide-generating forces in the lunar orbital plane of a planet of radius R are calculated for the case of N moons of mass Mi orbiting the planet at instantaneous polar coordinates (Di, αi). For the case of a single moon, there are only two high tides. For the case of two moons, it is found that there can exist a critical lunar orbital distance at which two high tides become unstable with respect to formation of three high tides. Bifurcation diagrams are presented which depict how the angular positions of the high and low tides on the planet vary with the lunar distances and lunar separation angle. Tidal stability diagrams, which illustrate the stability regions for various tidal patterns as a function of lunar distances and lunar separation angle, are presented for various values of D2/D1 and M2/M1. Generally speaking, the aforementioned tidal instability, and hence the propensity for formation of three high tides on a two-moon planet, exists over a significant range of lunar distances and separation angles provided that M2/M13(D2/D1). For the case of N>2 moons, the tidal stability diagram becomes more complex, revealing a diversity of potential tidal patterns.  相似文献   
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We demonstrate the effectiveness of the Exoplanet Characterisation Observatory mission concept for constraining the atmospheric properties of hot and warm gas giants and super Earths. Synthetic primary and secondary transit spectra for a range of planets are passed through EChOSim [13] to obtain the expected level of noise for different observational scenarios; these are then used as inputs for the NEMESIS atmospheric retrieval code and the retrieved atmospheric properties (temperature structure, composition and cloud properties) compared with the known input values, following the method of [1]. To correctly retrieve the temperature structure and composition of the atmosphere to within 2 σ, we find that we require: a single transit or eclipse of a hot Jupiter orbiting a sun-like (G2) star at 35 pc to constrain the terminator and dayside atmospheres; 20 transits or eclipses of a warm Jupiter orbiting a similar star; 10 transits/eclipses of a hot Neptune orbiting an M dwarf at 6 pc; and 30 transits or eclipses of a GJ1214b-like planet.  相似文献   
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