Two-dimensional equilibrium morphological modelling of a tidal inlet: an entropy based approach     

Joanna Marie Nield  David John Walker  Martin Francis Lambert 《Ocean Dynamics》2005,55(5-6):549-558

The management of tidal inlets requires the accurate prediction of equilibrium morphologies. In areas where the flow from rivers is highly regulated, it is important to give decision makers the ability to determine optimal flow management schemes, in order to allow tidal inlets to function as naturally as possible, and minimise the risk of inlet closure. The River Murray Mouth in South Australia is one such problem area. Drought and the retention of water for irrigation and urban water consumption have limited the amount of water entering the estuary. As a result, sediment from the coastal environment is being deposited in the mouth of the estuary, reducing the effect of further coastal interactions. Currently, situations such as this are modelled using traditional process-based methods, where wave, current, sediment transport and sediment balance modules are linked together in a time-stepping process. The modules are reapplied and assessed until a stable morphology is formed. In this paper, new options for modelling equilibrium morphologies of tidal inlets are detailed, which alleviate some of the shortfalls of traditional process-based models, such as the amplification of small errors and reliance on initial conditions. The modelling problem is approached in this paper from a different angle and involves the use of entropy based objective functions, which are optimised in order to find equilibrium morphologies. In this way, characteristics of a system at equilibrium can be recognised and a stable system predicted without having to step through time. This paper also details the use of self-organisation based modelling methods, another non-traditional model application, where local laws and feedback result in the formation of a global stable equilibrium morphology. These methods represent a different approach to traditional models, without some of the characteristics that may add to their limitations. Responsible Editor: Alejandro Souza  相似文献   

Crosshole seismic waveform tomography – II. Resolution analysis     

Ying Rao  Yanghua Wang  Joanna V. Morgan 《Geophysical Journal International》2006,166(3):1237-1248

In an accompanying paper, we used waveform tomography to obtain a velocity model between two boreholes from a real crosshole seismic experiment. As for all inversions of geophysical data, it is important to make an assessment of the final model, to determine which parts of the model are well-resolved and can confidently be used for geological interpretation. In this paper we use checkerboard tests to provide a quantitative estimate of the performance of the inversion and the reliability of the final velocity model. We use the output from the checkerboard tests to determine resolvability across the velocity model. Such tests can act as good guides for designing appropriate inversion strategies. Here we discovered that, by including both reference-model and smoothing constraints in initial inversions, and then relaxing the smoothing constraint for later inversions, an optimum velocity image was obtained. Additionally, we noticed that the performance of the inversion was dependent on a relationship between velocity perturbation and checkerboard grid-size: larger velocity perturbations were better-resolved when the grid-size was also increased. Our results suggest that model assessment is an essential step prior to interpreting features in waveform tomographic images.  相似文献   

Succession and productivity on perturbed and naturalSpartina salt-marsh areas in New Jersey     

Joanna Burger  Joseph Shisler 《Estuaries and Coasts》1983,6(1):50-56

Vegetation growth on spoil placed on aSpartina patens andS. alterniflora marsh in Barnegat Bay, New Jersey, was examined for two years following spoil deposition. In areas where spoil was leveled to match the elevation of the marsh, the percent cover by the end of the first growing season ranged from 60 to 90%. By the second year, cover was 100% in all study plots. Even during the first year, there was no difference in species diversity or vegetation species in the experimental and control areas. The percentage of shrubs did not increase on the perturbed (spoil) areas compared to the control plots. During the first year, but not the second, live and dead biomass was greater in the perturbed areas compared to the control plots. In an area where the spoil was thicker succession was exceedingly slow and there was only about 5% grass cover by the end of the first growing season. BecauseSpartina colonizes primarily by rhizome growth, the comparatively slow recovery was attributed to the inability of the grass to penetrate the thick spoil layer.  相似文献   

The economic impact of the port of Liverpool on the economy of Merseyside — Using a multiplier approach     

Joanna Kinsey 《Geoforum》1981,12(4):331-347

Liverpool developed round the Port which brought prosperity to the region dating from the 18th century. Over the last twenty years, however, changes in trading patterns and cargo-handling methods have had a distinct and drastic impact upon the Port. Today it is struggling to compete with South and East coast rivals. Its economic impact on the local economy is also declining. Through examining activity linked with the Port it was found that (a) jobs totally dependent upon the Port number less than 15,000, (b) firms supplying the Port are generally only dependent upon it for an extremely small proportion of their total turnover and (c) the Port's customers, which tend to be located in the North West, West Midlands and Yorkshire-Humberside, are decreasing in number and are frequently constrained by shipping companies for their choice of port.  相似文献   

Climate change and the water–energy–food nexus: insights from policy and practice in Tanzania     

Joanna Pardoe  Declan Conway  Emilinah Namaganda  Katharine Vincent  Andrew J. Dougill  Japhet J. Kashaigili 《Climate Policy》2018,18(7):863-877

The threat of climate change is emerging at a time of rapid growth for many economies in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Dominant narratives comprising ambitious development plans are common and often based around sectors with strong inter-dependencies that are highly exposed to climate variability. Using document analysis and key informant interviews, this article examines how climate change is addressed in policy, how it is being mainstreamed into water, energy and agriculture sector policies and the extent to which cross-sectoral linkages enable coordinated action. These questions are addressed through a case study of Tanzania, highlighting broader lessons for other developing countries, particularly those in SSA facing similar challenges. The article finds that, while the agriculture and water sectors are increasingly integrating climate change into policies and plans in Tanzania, practical coordination on adaptation remains relatively superficial. Publication of the Tanzania National Adaptation Plan of Action (NAPA) in 2007 marked a step change in the integration of climate change in sectoral policies and plans; however, it may have reinforced a sectoral approach to climate change. Examining the policies for coherence highlights overlaps and complementarities which lend themselves to a coordinated approach. Institutional constraints (particularly structures and resources) restrict opportunities for inter-sectoral action and thus collaboration is confined to ad hoc projects with mixed success to date. The results highlight the need for institutional frameworks that recognize and address these constraints to enable development goals to be pursued in a more sustainable and climate-resilient manner.

KEY POLICY INSIGHTS

• The NAPA has been successful at encouraging climate change mainstreaming into sectoral policies in Tanzania; however, the cross-sectoral collaboration crucial to implementing adaptation strategies remains limited due to institutional challenges such as power imbalances, budget constraints and an ingrained sectoral approach.

• Collaboration between nexus sectors in Tanzania is largely through ad hoc projects with limited progress on establishing deeper connections to enable collaboration as a process. Regular cross-sectoral planning meetings and consistent annual budgets could provide a platform to enhance cross-sectoral coordination.

• Plans to develop hydropower and agriculture are prevalent across sub-Saharan Africa. Insights from Tanzania highlight the importance of institutional and policy frameworks that enable cross-sectoral coordination.

  相似文献   

Pricing of uncertain certified emission reductions in a Chinese coal mine methane project with an extended Rubinstein-Ståhl model     

Xiangyang Xu  Joanna Horabik  Zbigniew Nahorski 《Climatic change》2014,124(3):617-632

The development of coal mine methane (CMM) projects is subject to various kinds of risk, one of these being their highly variable methane content. In this study, a new methodology is proposed to reflect the impact of this uncertainty on a negotiated Certified Emission Reduction (CER) price, which is based on the available information. To simulate a process of price negotiation the Rubinstein-Ståhl bargaining game is utilized, where a buyer’s discount factor is unknown. It is assumed that a buyer’s willingness to accomplish price negotiations depends on the CER uncertainty. The bargaining model has been extended by introducing dependence of its three parameters on the probability of a failure to fulfil the contracted CER amount. To quantify this probability, we develop a conditional distribution given information on the point estimate of methane amount for the project under consideration, and on the distribution of available estimates from coal mines having similar characteristics. The proposed approach is applied to a particular CMM capture and utilization project in Anhui province, China. The results indicate that the uncertainty influence is significant, particularly when the credibility of a seller increases, i.e. the probability of a failure to fulfil the project decreases. The analysis can be of use to both negotiating parties at an early stage of a comprehensive CMM project planning.  相似文献   

A comprehensive look at technology transfer     

Joanna I. Lewis 《Climate Policy》2015,15(1):177-179

  相似文献   

COP/MOP-1 and COP-11: a breakthrough for the climate change regime?     

Joanna Depledge  Michael Grubb 《Climate Policy》2013,13(5):553-560

  相似文献