Space- and Time-Dependent Probabilities for Earthquake Fault Systems from Numerical Simulations: Feasibility Study and First Results     

Jordan Van Aalsburg  John B. Rundle  Lisa B. Grant  Paul B. Rundle  Gleb Yakovlev  Donald L. Turcotte  Andrea Donnellan  Kristy F. Tiampo  Jose Fernandez 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2010,167(8-9):967-977

In weather forecasting, current and past observational data are routinely assimilated into numerical simulations to produce ensemble forecasts of future events in a process termed “model steering”. Here we describe a similar approach that is motivated by analyses of previous forecasts of the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP). Our approach is adapted to the problem of earthquake forecasting using topologically realistic numerical simulations for the strike-slip fault system in California. By systematically comparing simulation data to observed paleoseismic data, a series of spatial probability density functions (PDFs) can be computed that describe the probable locations of future large earthquakes. We develop this approach and show examples of PDFs associated with magnitude M > 6.5 and M > 7.0 earthquakes in California.  相似文献   

Natural and Anthropogenic Geohazards in Greater London Observed from Geological and ERS-1/2 and ENVISAT Persistent Scatterers Ground Motion Data: Results from the EC FP7-SPACE PanGeo Project     

Francesca Cigna  Hannah Jordan  Luke Bateson  Harry McCormack  Claire Roberts 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2015,172(11):2965-2995

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The continental tectosphere and Earth's long-wavelength gravity field   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Steven S. Shapiro  Bradford H. Hager  Thomas H. Jordan 《Lithos》1999,48(1-4):135-152

To estimate the average density contrast associated with the continental tectosphere, we separately project the degree 2–36 non-hydrostatic geoid and free-air gravity anomalies onto several tectonic regionalizations. Because both the regionalizations and the geoid have distinctly red spectra, we do not use conventional statistical analysis, which is based on the assumption of white spectra. Rather, we utilize a Monte Carlo approach that incorporates the spectral properties of these fields. These simulations reveal that the undulations of Earth's geoid correlate with surface tectonics no better than they would were it randomly oriented with respect to the surface. However, our simulations indicate that free-air gravity anomalies correlate with surface tectonics better than almost 98% of our trials in which the free-air gravity anomalies were randomly oriented with respect to Earth's surface. The average geoid anomaly and free-air gravity anomaly over platforms and shields are significant at slightly better than the one-standard-deviation level: −11±8 m and −4±3 mgal, respectively. After removing from the geoid estimated contributions associated with (1) a simple model of the continental crust and oceanic lithosphere, (2) the lower mantle, (3) subducted slabs, and (4) remnant glacial isostatic disequilibrium, we estimate a platform and shield signal of −8±4 m. We conclude that there is little contribution of platforms and shields to the gravity field, consistent with their keels having small density contrasts. Using this estimate of the platform and shield signal, and previous estimates of upper-mantle shear-wave travel-time perturbations, we find that the average value of ∂lnρ/∂lnν_s within the 140–440 km depth range is 0.04±0.02. A continental tectosphere with an isopycnic (equal-density) structure (∂lnρ/∂lnν_s=0) enforced by compositional variations is consistent with this result at the 2.0σ level. Without compositional buoyancy, the continental tectosphere would have an average ∂lnρ/∂lnν_s≈0.25, exceeding our estimate by 10σ.  相似文献   

The anomalous intensities of helium lines in the quiet solar transition region     

K. P. Macpherson  C. Jordan 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》1999,308(2):510-526

Previous studies using observations made at low spatial and spectral resolution showed that the resonance lines of He  i and He  ii are anomalously strong in the quiet Sun when compared with other transition region lines formed at similar temperatures. Here, the higher spatial and spectral resolution provided by the Coronal Diagnostic Spectrometer ( cds ) instrument on board the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory ( SOHO ) is used to re-examine the behaviour of the He  i and He  ii lines and other transition region lines, in quiet regions near Sun centre. Supergranulation cell boundaries and cell interiors are examined separately. Near-simultaneous observations with the sumer instrument provide information on the lower transition region and the electron pressure. While the lines of He  i and He  ii have a common behaviour, as do the other transition region lines, the behaviour of the helium lines relative to the other transition region lines is significantly different. The emission measure distributions that account for all transition region lines, except those of helium, fail to produce sufficient emission in the He  i and He  ii resonance lines by around an order of magnitude, in both supergranulation cell boundary and cell interior regions. The electron pressure appears to be higher in the cell interiors than in the average cell boundaries, although the uncertainties are large. While the VAL-D model gives a closer match to the He  i 584.3-Å line, it does not successfully reproduce other transition region lines.  相似文献   

Coastal paleogeography and human occupation of the Western Alaska Peninsula     

James W. Jordan  Herbert D.G. Maschner 《Geoarchaeology》2000,15(5):385-414

Geological and archaeological investigations on the western Alaska Peninsula establish relationships between postglacial sea level changes and regional settlement patterns, which are linked to the spatial and temporal distribution of marine and estuarine resources. Isostatic emergence dominated relative sea‐level changes since deglaciation, but erosional landforms and gaps in the archaeological record suggest that site preservation has varied because of the interplay of eustatic sea level rise, isostatic uplift, and tectonic deformation. Coastal subsidence associated with a major earthquake about 2200 yr B.P. is linked with a 300‐year hiatus in the regional archaeological record. A shift from estuarine to littoral and offshore resources following this period demonstrates the impact of such dynamic sea level fluctuations on the shape and biological productivity of the coastal zone. However, changes in village organization, house form, and subsistence base that define several archaeological phases arise from both environmental and sociopolitical instability. Models of culture change should accommodate local and regional geological boundary conditions in the North Pacific and similarly dynamic settings. © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.  相似文献   

HUGO: the Hawaii Undersea Geo-Observatory     

Duennebier  F.K. Harris  D.W. Jolly  J. Caplan-Auerbach  J. Jordan  R. Copson  D. Stiffel  K. Babinec  J. Bosel  J. 《Oceanic Engineering, IEEE Journal of》2002,27(2):218-227

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Biogenic Emissions and Nocturnal Ozone Depletion Events at the Amphitrite Point Observatory on Vancouver Island     

T. W. Tokarek  D. K. Brownsey  N. Jordan  N. M. Garner  C. Z. Ye  F. V. Assad 《大气与海洋》2017,55(2):121-132

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COMMUNICATIONS FROM READERS     

Terry G. Jordan 《The Professional geographer》1966,18(4):234-234

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Carbon sources and signals through time in an Alpine groundwater Basin, Sagehen California     

Erik D. Blumhagen  Jordan F. Clark   《Applied Geochemistry》2008,23(8):2284-2291

In 2003, chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) apparent ages, major ion chemistry and C isotopes were determined in nine springs from Sagehen Basin, a high elevation watershed in the eastern Sierra Nevada. Springs with similar apparent ages, which ranged between 15 and 45 a, had very similar chemistry despite being found in different areas of the watershed. In agreement with earlier studies, concentrations of rock-derived cations (Ca²⁺ and Na⁺), conductivity, temperature and pH increase with apparent age, documenting the chemical evolution of this groundwater system. In contrast with the cation data, δ¹³C and ΣCO₂ show no correlation with apparent age. δ¹³C displays a strong linear relationship with 1/ΣCO₂ (R² = 0.91). This is consistent with results from a previously developed soil respiration/diffusion model. Spring radiocarbon content ranged between 85 and 110 pmc and varied with apparent age, whereby the youngest groundwater has the highest radiocarbon values. The spring radiocarbon is set by the soil pCO₂ and its trend can be best described assuming the soil CO₂ is composed of a mixture of 50–66% fast- (15–25 a) and 33–50% slow- (4 ka) cycling components. These results are consistent with previous soil C studies. The C isotope data indicate that in Sagehen Basin the groundwater ΣCO₂ is inherited from the soil zone with little, if any, contribution from the dissolution of disseminated calcite.  相似文献   

From on high: Geochemistry of alpine springs,Niwot Ridge,Colorado Front Range,USA     

Jordan F. Fields  David P. Dethier 《水文研究》2019,33(12):1756-1774

Snowmelt‐fed springs and small (0.5 km²) upland catchments in alpine areas of the western United States contribute significantly to the quantity and inorganic chemistry of water delivered to downstream basins but have not been studied extensively. Mineral weathering, transit time, and hydrologic mixing control the solute chemistry of waters that drain the upland zone of Niwot Ridge, Colorado Front Range, and adjacent areas in the granitic core of the Southern Rocky Mountains. Water in 37 springs sampled in this study flows in generally short steep paths (~0.3 km) through shallow regolith with mean transit times (MTT) of weeks to months, producing solutions dominated by Si, Ca²⁺, Na⁺, and HCO₃^?, locally SO₄^2?. Rock type is a significant control on spring, surface, and shallow groundwater chemistry, and plagioclase (oligoclase) is the major source of dissolved Na⁺ and Si. Concentrations of Ca²⁺ exceed stoichiometric predictions of oligoclase weathering by ~3.5×; excess Ca²⁺ likely represents weathering of aeolian material, vein calcite, or trace minerals. Concentrations of base cations and Si increase slowly with estimated MTT of 0.2 years for Niwot Ridge spring waters, and several years for shallow groundwater sampled by wells. Chemical weathering of silicate minerals is slow with estimated rates of ~2.0 and 0.2 pmol·m^?2·s^?1 for oligoclase and microcline, respectively; the most mineralized spring waters are saturated only with respect to kaolinite and montmorillonite. More than 50% of the dissolved base cations + Si measured in Boulder Creek at Orodell (~25 km downstream) accumulate before water emerges from alpine springs on Niwot Ridge. Warming global temperatures are shifting more high‐elevation precipitation to rain, potentially changing run‐off patterns, transit time, and solute loads. Acquisition of solutes by alpine waters thus has implications far beyond small upland catchments.  相似文献