Towards the detection and attribution of an anthropogenic effect on climate   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Benjamin D. Santer  Karl E. Taylor  Tom M. L. Wigley  Joyce E. Penner  Philip D. Jones  Ulrich Cubasch 《Climate Dynamics》1995,12(2):77-100

It has been hypothesized recently that regional-scale cooling caused by anthropogenic sulfate aerosols may be partially obscuring a warming signal associated with changes in greenhouse gas concentrations. Here we use results from model experiments in which sulfate and carbon dioxide have been varied individually and in combination in order to test this hypothesis. We use centered [R (t)] and uncentered [C (t)] pattern similarity statistics to compare observed time-evolving surface temperature change patterns with the model-predicted equilibrium signal patterns. We show that in most cases, the C (t) statistic reduces to a measure of observed global-mean temperature changes, and is of limited use in attributing observed climate changes to a specific causal mechanism. We therefore focus on R (t), which is a more useful statistic for discriminating between forcing mechanisms with different pattern signatures but similar rates of global mean change. Our results indicate that over the last 50 years, the summer (JJA) and fall (SON) observed patterns of near-surface temperature change show increasing similarity to the model-simulated response to combined sulfate aerosol/CO₂ forcing. At least some of this increasing spatial congruence occurs in areas where the real world has cooled. To assess the significance of the most recent trends in R (t) and C (t), we use data from multi-century control integrations performed with two different coupled atmosphere-ocean models, which provide information on the statistical behavior of 'unforced' trends in the pattern correlation statistics. For the combined sulfate aerosol/CO₂ experiment, the 50-year R (t) trends for the JJA and SON signals are highly significant. Results are robust in that they do not depend on the choice of control run used to estimate natural variability noise properties. The R (t) trends for the CO₂-only signal are not significant in any season. C (t) trends for signals from both the CO₂-only and combined forcing experiments are highly significant in all seasons and for all trend lengths (except for trends over the last 10 years), indicating large global-mean changes relative to the two natural variability estimates used here. The caveats regarding the signals and natural variability noise which form the basis of this study are numerous. Nevertheless, we have provided first evidence that both the largest-scale (global-mean) and smaller-scale (spatial anomalies about the global mean) components of a combined CO₂/anthropogenic sulfate aerosol signal are identifiable in the observed near-surface air temperature data. If the coupled-model noise estimates used here are realistic, we can be highly confident that the anthropogenic signal that we have identified is distinctly different from internally generated natural variability noise. The fact that we have been able to detect the detailed spatial signature in response to combined CO₂ and sulfate aerosol forcing, but not in response to CO₂ forcing alone, suggests that some of the regional-scale background noise (against which we were trying to detect a CO₂-only signal) is in fact part of the signal of a sulfate aerosol effect on climate. The large effect of sulfate aerosols found in this study demonstrates the importance of their inclusion in experiments designed to simulate past and future climate change. Received: 10 November 1994 / Accepted: 19 July 1995  相似文献   

Embedding reach-scale fluvial dynamics within the CAESAR cellular automaton landscape evolution model   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：2  

Marco J. Van De Wiel  Tom J. Coulthard  Mark G. Macklin  John Lewin 《Geomorphology》2007,90(3-4):283

We introduce a new computational model designed to simulate and investigate reach-scale alluvial dynamics within a landscape evolution model. The model is based on the cellular automaton concept, whereby the continued iteration of a series of local process ‘rules’ governs the behaviour of the entire system. The model is a modified version of the CAESAR landscape evolution model, which applies a suite of physically based rules to simulate the entrainment, transport and deposition of sediments. The CAESAR model has been altered to improve the representation of hydraulic and geomorphic processes in an alluvial environment. In-channel and overbank flow, sediment entrainment and deposition, suspended load and bed load transport, lateral erosion and bank failure have all been represented as local cellular automaton rules. Although these rules are relatively simple and straightforward, their combined and repeatedly iterated effect is such that complex, non-linear geomorphological response can be simulated within the model. Examples of such larger-scale, emergent responses include channel incision and aggradation, terrace formation, channel migration and river meandering, formation of meander cutoffs, and transitions between braided and single-thread channel patterns. In the current study, the model is illustrated on a reach of the River Teifi, near Lampeter, Wales, UK.  相似文献   

Predicting channel patterns   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

John Lewin  Paul A. Brewer   《Geomorphology》2001,40(3-4)

The proposed distinction between meandering and braided river channel patterns, on the basis of bankfull specific stream power and bed material size, is analysed and rejected. Only by using regime-based estimates of channel widths (rather than actual widths) has discrimination been achieved, and it is argued that this procedure is unacceptable.An alternative is to explore the patterning processes underlying the marked pattern scatter on bankfull stream power/bed material size plots. Of the five sets of patterning processes, large-scale bedform development and stability is seen as especially important for meandering and braiding. For gravel-bed rivers, bedforms developed at around or above bankfull stage appear important for pattern generation, with braiding relating to higher excess shear stress and Froude number. There seems to be an upper threshold to both meandering and braiding which is achieved at extreme discharges and steep gradients, as on steep alluvial fans, rather than for the rivers with available flow data here considered. For sand-bed rivers with greater excess shear stress, the equivalent upper plane bed threshold may occur below bankfull, with bed material mobility and bedform modification occurring over a wider range of sub-bankfull discharges. Sand-bed channel margin outlines appear to be less perturbed by bedform effects than gravel bed planforms, and they may have naturally straight or sinuous planforms. Bedform relief may nevertheless lead to some being designated as braided when viewed at low flows.It is concluded that the use of a single-stage stream power measure and bed material size alone is unlikely to achieve meandering/braiding discrimination.  相似文献   

Storm catastrophes in the United States     

Stanley A. Changnon  Joyce M. Changnon 《Natural Hazards》1992,6(2):93-107

A unique historical data set describing the 142 storms each producing losses in excess of $100 million in the United States during the 1950–89 period were analyzed to describe their temporal characteristics. The storms caused $66.2 billion in losses (in 1991 values), 76% of the nation's insured storm losses in this period. These extreme storm catastrophes (SCs) were most prevalent in the south, southeast, northeast, and central U.S., with few in and west of the Rocky Mountains. Storm incidences were high in the 1950s, low in the 1960s-early 1970s, and increased in the 1980s. Losses due to SCs peaked in the 1950s, again in the late 1960s, with a lesser peak after 1985. The areal extent of storm losses peaked after 1975 and was least in the 1960s. The temporal variations of the three storm measures (incidence, losses, and extent) did not agree except when they all peaked in the 1950s. Regionally-derived time distributions of SCs showed a marked north-south differences in the United States with a U-shaped 40-year distribution in the northern half of the nation, and a relatively flat trend until a peak in the 1980s in the southern regions. The temporal distributions of hurricane-caused catastrophes differed regionally with occurrences in the prime areas, the southern, southeastern, and northeastern U.S., each quite different. Temporal distributions of thunderstorm and winter storm catastrophes were regionally more uniform.  相似文献   

Numerical simulation of the plasma double layer     

Christoph K. Goertz  Glenn Joyce 《Astrophysics and Space Science》1975,32(1):165-173

A one-dimensional particle-in-cell computer simulation is used to model the formation of an electrostatic double layer. The conditions for the onset of the layer formation are explored and a relation between the length of the layer and the electrostatic potential difference across is found.  相似文献   

Long-term changes in the type,but not amount,of ingested plastic particles in short-tailed shearwaters in the southeastern Bering Sea     

Vlietstra LS  Parga JA 《Marine pollution bulletin》2002,44(9):945-955

We report the current (1997-1999, 2001) incidence and amount of ingested plastic in short-tailed shearwaters (Puffinus tenuirostris) in the southeastern Bering Sea and compare our results with plastic reported in shearwaters during 1970-1978. We also examine correlations between plastic loads and shearwater body mass. We found that 84% (N = 330) of shearwaters sampled in 1997-1999 and 2001 contained plastic. The incidence and amount of ingested plastic have not significantly changed since the 1970s. In contrast, the predominant type of plastic has changed over time, from industrial plastic to user plastic. S,asonal patterns in the incidence and amount of ingested plastic also changed from peak levels during early and late summer in the 1970s to mid summer in the late 1990s and 2001. We suggest that the availability of neuston plastic to seabirds in the Bering Sea has undergone a shift in composition since the 1970s. Shearwater body mass appears little if at all impaired by plastic, at least at present levels of consumption.  相似文献   

Rare and vulnerable species in the mollusc communities in the mining subsidence reservoirs of an industrial area (The Katowicka Upland, Upper Silesia, Southern Poland)   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Iga Lewin  Adam Smoli&#x;ski 《Limnologica》2006,36(3):181-191

Pollution of the water environment by mining waters is a problem not only in Poland, but worldwide. This study investigated the mollusc communities in seven mining subsidence reservoirs affected by coal mine output (the Katowicka Upland, Upper Silesia, Southern Poland). The objective of the survey was to determine the relationship between the molluscs and their environments and to evaluate the ecological-conservation value of freshwater habitats which support rare and vulnerable molluscs. From 1993 to 2005, 23 mollusc species were recorded. Our result confirmed an invasion by Potamopyrgus antipodarum (Gray, 1843), whose density varied from 2 to 2422 individuals/m² in the waters of the Katowicka Upland. A few rare and vulnerable species were found, e.g. Acroloxus lacustris (Linnaeus, 1758), Hippeutis complanatus (Linnaeus, 1758), Ferrissia wautieri (Mirolli, 1960), Anodonta anatina (Linnaeus, 1758), Musculium lacustre (O.F. Müller, 1774) or Pisidium casertanum (Poli, 1791). Principal component analysis showed a positive correlation between mollusc density and pH, the concentration of chlorides, the total hardness, alkalinity and total dissolved solids, and a negative correlation between the number of species and phosphates. Because of the distinctive environmental features of the mining subsidence reservoirs in Czułów, the research area has provided a refuge for wildlife.  相似文献   

The assessment of sediment sources: A field experiment     

J. Lewin  P. J. Wolfenden 《地球表面变化过程与地形》1978,3(2):171-178

The possibility of using metals from mining activity as tracers for identifying stream sediment sources is explored. Sampling of monthly bed sediment yield and of the spatial and temporal variation in Pb concentration was undertaken in a 1·02 km² catchment, and estimates of the sediment contribution from different stream reaches are calculated. The method has considerable limitations, for metal concentrations are notably dependent on sediment size, season, source availability, and the chemical mobility of the metal used. In most natural streams these must preclude the use of pollutants for simple sediment source identification.  相似文献   

On the behaviour of dumped dredger spoil     

John Joyce 《Marine pollution bulletin》1979,10(6):158-160

Observations carried out on the dredger dumping grounds at Lowestoft have shown that fine particulate dredger spoil consists of two phases, one semi-fluid and the other a solid. Once introduced into the marine environment these two phases behave differently. The solid phase falls directly to the bed where it forms a persistent deposit with a localized effect while the semifluid phase is carried by the prevailing currents in the form of a turbid cloud. The possible significance of this twin-phase behaviour is discussed.  相似文献   

Trace element distribution in mineral separates of the Allende inclusions and their genetic implications     

Hiroshi Nagasawa  Douglas P Blanchard  Jeffrey W Jacobs  Joyce C Brannon  John A Philpotts  Naoki Onuma 《Geochimica et cosmochimica acta》1977,41(11):1587-1600

Concentrations of the REE, Sc, Co, Fe, Zn, Ir, Na and Cr were determined by instrumental neutron activation and mass spectrometric isotope dilution analysis for mineral separates of the coarseand fine-grained types (group I and II of Martin and Mason's classification) of the Allende inclusions.These data, combined with data on mineral/liquid partition coefficients, oxygen isotope distributions and diffusion calculations, suggest the following: (1) Minerals in the coarse-grained inclusions (group I) crystallized in a closed system with respect to refractory elements. On the other hand, differences in oxygen isotope distributions among minerals preclude a totally molten stage in the history of the inclusion. Group I inclusions were formed by rapid condensation (either to liquid or solid) in a supercooled solar nebula; extrasolar pyroxene and spinel dust were included but not melted in the condensing inclusions, thus preserving their extrasolar oxygen isotope composition. REE were distributed by diffusion during the subsequent heating at subsolidus temperatures; because oxygen diffuses much more slowly at these temperatures, the oxygen isotope anomalies were preserved. (2) The fine-grained (group II) inclusions were also formed by condensation from a super-cooled nebular gas; however, REE-rich clinopyroxene and spinel were formed early and REE-poor sodalite and nepheline were formed later and mechanically mixed with clinopyroxene and spinel to form the inclusions. The REE patterns of the bulk inclusions and the mineral separates are fractionated, indicating that REE abundances in the gaseous phase were already fractionated at the time of condensation of the minerals. (3) Pre-existing Mg isotope anomalies in the coarse-grained inclusions must have been erased during the heating stage thus resetting the ²⁶Al-²⁶Mg chronometer.  相似文献