Bayesian estimation of seismic hazard for two sites in Switzerland     

Erik Rüttener  Juan José Egozcue  Dieter Mayer-Rosa  Stephan Mueller 《Natural Hazards》1996,14(2-3):165-178

Seismic hazard analysis is based on data and models, which both are imprecise and uncertain. Especially the interpretation of historical information into earthquake parameters, e.g. earthquake size and location, yields ambiguous and imprecise data. Models based on probability distributions have been developed in order to quantify and represent these uncertainties. Nevertheless, the majority of the procedures applied in seismic hazard assessment do not take into account these uncertainties, nor do they show the variance of the results. Therefore, a procedure based on Bayesian statistics was developed to estimate return periods for different ground motion intensities (MSK scale).Bayesian techniques provide a mathematical model to estimate the distribution of random variables in presence of uncertainties. The developed method estimates the probability distribution of the number of occurrences in a Poisson process described by the parameter . The input data are the historical occurrences of intensities for a particular site, represented by a discrete probability distribution for each earthquake. The calculation of these historical occurrences requires a careful preparation of all input parameters, i.e. a modelling of their uncertainties. The obtained results show that the variance of the recurrence rate is smaller in regions with higher seismic activity than in less active regions. It can also be demonstrated that long return periods cannot be estimated with confidence, because the time period of observation is too short. This indicates that the long return periods obtained by seismic source methods only reflects the delineated seismic sources and the chosen earthquake size distribution law.  相似文献   

On the tidal variation of the geopotential     

José M. Ferrándiz  Juan Getino 《Celestial Mechanics and Dynamical Astronomy》1993,57(1-2):279-292

In this paper analytical expressions are derived for the temporal variations ofJ ₂ andJ ₂₂ due to the tides of the solid Earth, taking into account only the deformation of the mantle, and employing a procedure already used by the authors in their Hamiltonian theory of the Earth's rotation, which obtain the necessary parameters in a direct way by integration of those provided by a selected model of Earth interior.Numerical tables giving the periodic variation of coefficients are given, as well as a new prediction for UT1. For J ₂ and J ₂₂ the amplitudes reach such a magnitude that both two variations should not be ignored in studies involving the analysis of highly precise satellite tracking data. Moreover, the possibility of improving our knowledge of the value of those harmonic coefficients in only a more exact digit appears as to be strongly dependent on the limitations in the theoretical modeling of the variations of the inertia tensor due to solid tides.  相似文献   

1980²000北京市农业土地生产性的变动分析   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

王鹏飞  鲁奇  傅桦  李娟 《地理研究》2006,25(4):719-729

根据1980、1990、2000年的统计资料和实地走访观察,本文分析了北京市乡镇一级的粮食作物、蔬菜作物和果品作物的分布格局及农业土地生产性近20年的变化。研究认为:1980年北京农业生产分布格局与土地生产性为比较典型的杜能模式;随着农业经营的多样化,1990年和2000年北京农业土地生产性呈现出多样的分布格局;北京粮食作物、蔬菜作物、果品作物的分布格局及农业土地生产性近20年的变化与此阶段的农业生产政策、农业以外的社会经济活动变化有较强的关联性;对北京以上问题的研究为验证杜能、辛克利亚、布莱昂特城市周边农业地域研究经典理论的演变提供了实证案例。  相似文献   

Modeling the seismic response of basin-edge structure by a sequential waveform method     

Lian-Feng Zhao  Wei-Min Wang  Juan Li  Zhen-Xing Yao 《Tectonophysics》2006,420(3-4):493-507

A sequential waveform method is developed to simulate the seismic response of basin-edge structure excited by a plane incident P-wave. The full procedure involves: (a) a previous parameterization of the investigated model using the seismic wave velocities and depths of the sedimentary stratifications; (b) an input motion determined from the records at stations installed on hard rock; (c) forward computation of the P-SV elastic wave field by means of a two-dimensional finite difference (FD) method; (d) the optimization of the model vector using simulated annealing technique and comparing the simulated seismic response of the tested structure with the observed wave field; (e) the correction of the initial model by trial-and-error by testing the differences between synthetics and observed data, and (f) the final solution obtained by iteration using the conjugate gradient algorithm. The search of an optimal basin-edge model has been parallel processed by varying the shapes and velocities of strata on the basis of the fitting of relative timing, amplitude and phase between the output and the observed data. The input motion and sensitivity have been checked and the validity of the method has been demonstrated by numeric analysis. Using the teleseismic records generated by 7 earthquakes recorded at 26 broadband seismic stations, we have studied the seismic velocity structure of the southern edge of the Jiyang depression located in the Bohai Bay basin, northern China. Two cross sections show an agreement between the velocity results and the geological sections available in the region. In addition, we obtain evidence of three hidden faults under the sections and features that suggest major extensions at the Paleogene.  相似文献   

Geothermal evidence for fluid flow through the gas hydrate stability field off Central Chile—transient flow related to large subduction zone earthquakes?     

Ingo Grevemeyer  Norbert Kaul  Juan L. Diaz-Naveas 《Geophysical Journal International》2006,166(1):461-468

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吸水剖面综合解释方法及应用     

ZHANG Jian-min ZHAO Yong-zhong XU Jing HUANG Juan The Logging Company  Jilin Petroleum Group Co.  Ltd  Songyuan  Jilin  China 《吉林大学学报(地球科学版)》2006,(Z2)

吉林油田同位素吸水剖面测井采用~(113)In同位素追踪技术,根据同位素追踪过程解释基本可以判断配水层段吸水情况。但是在注水井存在沾污、大孔道以及串槽等影响时,吸水面积确定比较困难。在同位素测井中增加井温、流量参数,通过多参数综合解释,不仅可以对沾污影响进行合理校正,确定准确的小层吸水量,而且能够正确判断各级封隔器、配水器的工作情况,在地层存在大孔道的情况下,确定地层的吸水面积。吸水剖面综合解释方法在吉林油田已普遍应用,见到明显的效果。  相似文献   

Geodatabase版本控制原理剖析   总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6  

任娟  杨平 《国土资源信息化》2005,(3):41-44

随着地理信息系统的发展及其应用的不断扩大,多用户并发操作、长事务处理以及历史数据回溯管理成为大型空间数据库的基本要求,ESRI在面向对象地理模型(Geodatabase数据模型)中通过版本控制为空间数据库的上述要求提供了有效的解决方案。本文详细分析了Geodatabase版本控制基本原理,为建立、管理大型空间数据库以及研究开发全新面向对象空间数据库管理系统提供参考。  相似文献   

高光谱遥感数据三次光滑样条滤噪   总被引：6，自引：1，他引：6  

路威  余旭初刘娟 《测绘学院学报》2005,22(1):11-13,16

分析了高光谱遥感数据噪声滤波的作用和现状，实现了一种基于三次光滑样条函数的高光谱遥感数据噪声滤波算法，解决了目前高光谱遥感数据噪声滤波算法自适应效果不理想的问题。通过对AVIRIS数据试验，证明此方法简单易行，计算精度高，具有良好的局部自适应拟合能力，并能有效地滤除数据中的噪声，改善数据质量。  相似文献   

塔里木盆地阿克库勒地区石炭系卡拉沙依组成岩作用     

刘辰生  郭建华  苏娟 《新疆地质》2005,23(3):288-291

阿克库勒地区卡拉沙依组碎屑岩储层的成分成熟度和结构成熟度均较低．储层的次生溶蚀孔隙所占比例远高了：原生孔隙，次生孔隙是储层的主要储集空间．样品数据统计显示，卡拉沙依组储层属于低孔、低渗储层类型．根据岩石薄片、铸体薄片观察及储层样品的扫描电镜和阴极发光分析结果，本区石炭系储层主要经历的成岩作用有压实（压溶）作用、胶结作用、溶蚀作用和交代作用，其中碳酸盐矿物的沉淀和溶蚀作用是本区卡拉沙依组储层所经历的最重要的成岩作用．成岩作用已达到晚成岩B期，早期方解石交代石英颗粒并发生大量溶蚀，生成大量次生孔隙，晚期方解石没有发生溶蚀．  相似文献   

Performance of the improved Abel transform to estimate electron density profiles from GPS occultation data   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：2  

M. Garcia-Fernandez  M. Hernandez-Pajares  J. M. Juan  J. Sanz 《GPS Solutions》2005,9(2):105-110

The Abel inversion is a straightforward tool to retrieve high-resolution vertical profiles of electron density from GPS radio occultations gathered by low earth orbiters (LEO). Nevertheless, the classical approach of this technique is limited by the assumption that the electron density in the vicinity of the occultation depends only on height (i.e., spherical symmetry), which is not realistic particularly in low-latitude regions or during ionospheric storms. Moreover, with the advent of recent satellite missions with orbits placed around 400 km (such as CHAMP satellite), an additional issue has to be dealt with: the treatment of the electron content above the satellite orbits. This paper extends the performance study of a method, proposed by the authors in previous works, which tackles both problems using an assumption of electron-density separability between the vertical total electron content and a shape function. This allows introducing horizontal information into the classic Abel inversion. Moreover, using both positive and negative elevation data makes it feasible to take into account the electron content above the LEO as well. Different data sets involving different periods of the solar cycle, periods of the day and satellites are studied in this work, confirming the benefits of this improved Abel transform approach.  相似文献