Running out? Water in Western Australia     

Julia Horsley 《The Australian geographer》2018,49(2):337-338

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Comparison of a Manual and an Automated Tracking Method for Tibetan Plateau Vortices     

Julia CURIO  Yongren CHEN  Reinhard SCHIEMANN  ANDrew G.TURNER  Kai Chi WONG  Kevin HODGES  Yueqing LI 《大气科学进展》2018,35(8):965-980

Tibetan Plateau vortices(TPVs) are mesoscale cyclones originating over the Tibetan Plateau(TP) during the extended summer season(April–September).Most TPVs stay on the TP,but a small number can move off the TP to the east.TPVs are known to be one of the main precipitation-bearing systems on the TP and moving-off TPVs have been associated with heavy precipitation and flooding downstream of the TP(e.g.,in Sichuan province or over the Yangtze River Valley).Identifying and tracking TPVs is difficult because of their comparatively small horizontal extent(400–800 km) and the limited availability of soundings over the TP,which in turn constitutes a challenge for short-term predictions of TPV-related impacts and for the climatological study of TPVs.In this study,(i) manual tracking(MT) results using radiosonde data from a network over and downstream of the TP are compared with(ii) results obtained by an automated tracking(AT) algorithm applied to ERA-Interim data.Ten MT-TPV cases are selected based on method(i) and matched to and compared with the corresponding AT-TPVs identified with method(ii).Conversely,ten AT-TPVs are selected and compared with the corresponding MT-TPVs.In general,the comparison shows good results in cases where the underlying data are in good agreement,but considerable differences are also seen in some cases and explained in terms of differences in the tracking methods,data availability/coverage and disagreement between sounding and ERA-Interim data.Recommendations are given for future efforts in TPV detection and tracking,including in an operational weather forecasting context.  相似文献   

Modelling soil moisture in a high‐latitude landscape using LiDAR and soil data          下载免费PDF全文

Julia Kemppinen  Pekka Niittynen  Henri Riihimäki  Miska Luoto 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2018,43(5):1019-1031

Soil moisture has a pronounced effect on earth surface processes. Global soil moisture is strongly driven by climate, whereas at finer scales, the role of non‐climatic drivers becomes more important. We provide insights into the significance of soil and land surface properties in landscape‐scale soil moisture variation by utilizing high‐resolution light detection and ranging (LiDAR) data and extensive field investigations. The data consist of 1200 study plots located in a high‐latitude landscape of mountain tundra in north‐western Finland. We measured the plots three times during growing season 2016 with a hand‐held time‐domain reflectometry sensor. To model soil moisture and its temporal variation, we used four statistical modelling methods: generalized linear models, generalized additive models, boosted regression trees, and random forests. The model fit of the soil moisture models were R² = 0.60 and root mean square error (RMSE) 8.04 VWC% on average, while the temporal variation models showed a lower fit of R² = 0.25 and RMSE 13.11 CV%. The predictive performances for the former were R² = 0.47 and RMSE 9.34 VWC%, and for the latter R² = 0.01 and RMSE 15.29 CV%. Results were similar across the modelling methods, demonstrating a consistent pattern. Soil moisture and its temporal variation showed strong heterogeneity over short distances; therefore, soil moisture modelling benefits from high‐resolution predictors, such as LiDAR based variables. In the soil moisture models, the strongest predictor was SAGA (System for Automated Geoscientific Analyses) wetness index (SWI), based on a 1 m² digital terrain model derived from LiDAR data, which outperformed soil predictors. Thus, our study supports the use of LiDAR based SWI in explaining fine‐scale soil moisture variation. In the temporal variation models, the strongest predictor was the field‐quantified organic layer depth variable. Our results show that spatial soil moisture predictions can be based on soil and land surface properties, yet the temporal models require further investigation. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Forests and floods: Using field evidence to reconcile analysis methods     

James C. Bathurst  Barry Fahey  Andrés Iroumé  Julia Jones 《水文研究》2020,34(15):3295-3310

The extent to which forests, relative to shorter vegetation, mitigate flood peak discharges remains controversial and relatively poorly researched, with only a few significant field studies. Considering the effect purely of change of vegetation cover, peak flow magnitude comparisons for paired catchments have suggested that forests do not mitigate large floods, whereas flood frequency comparisons have shown that forests mitigate frequencies over all magnitudes of flood. This study investigates the apparent inconsistency using field-based evidence from four contrasting field programmes at scales of 0.34–3.1 km². Repeated patterns are identified that provide strong evidence of real effects with physical explanations. Magnitude and frequency comparisons are both relevant to the impact of forests on peak discharges but address different questions. Both can show a convergence of response between forested and grassland/logged states at the highest recorded flows but the associated return periods may be quite variable and are subject to estimation uncertainty. For low to moderate events, the forested catchments have a lower peak magnitude for a given frequency than the grassland/logged catchments. Depending on antecedent soil saturation, a given storm may nevertheless generate peak discharges of the same magnitude for both catchment states but these peaks will have different return periods. The effect purely of change in vegetation cover may be modified by additional forestry interventions, such as road networks and drainage ditches which, by effectively increasing the drainage density, may increase peak flows for all event magnitudes. For all the sites, forest cover substantially reduces annual runoff.  相似文献   

Multi‐method virtual electromagnetic experiments for developing suitable monitoring designs: A fictitious CO2 sequestration scenario in Northern Germany          下载免费PDF全文

Jana H. Börner  Feiyan Wang  Julia Weißflog  Matthias Bär  Ines Görz  Klaus Spitzer 《Geophysical Prospecting》2015,63(6):1430-1449

We present a numerical study for 3D time‐lapse electromagnetic monitoring of a fictitious CO₂ sequestration using the geometry of a real geological site and a suite of suitable electromagnetic methods with different source/receiver configurations and different sensitivity patterns. All available geological information is processed and directly implemented into the computational domain, which is discretized by unstructured tetrahedral grids. We thus demonstrate the performance capability of our numerical simulation techniques. The scenario considers a CO₂ injection in approximately 1100 m depth. The expected changes in conductivity were inferred from preceding laboratory measurements. A resistive anomaly is caused within the conductive brines of the undisturbed reservoir horizon. The resistive nature of the anomaly is enhanced by the CO₂ dissolution regime, which prevails in the high‐salinity environment. Due to the physicochemical properties of CO₂, the affected portion of the subsurface is laterally widespread but very thin. We combine controlled‐source electromagnetics, borehole transient electromagnetics, and the direct‐current resistivity method to perform a virtual experiment with the aim of scrutinizing a set of source/receiver configurations with respect to coverage, resolution, and detectability of the anomalous CO₂ plume prior to the field survey. Our simulation studies are carried out using the 3D codes developed in our working group. They are all based on linear and higher order Lagrange and Nédélec finite‐element formulations on unstructured grids, providing the necessary flexibility with respect to the complex real‐world geometry. We provide different strategies for addressing the accuracy of numerical simulations in the case of arbitrary structures. The presented computations demonstrate the expected great advantage of positioning transmitters or receivers close to the target. For direct‐current geoelectrics, 50% change in electric potential may be detected even at the Earth's surface. Monitoring with inductive methods is also promising. For a well‐positioned surface transmitter, more than 10% difference in the vertical electric field is predicted for a receiver located 200 m above the target. Our borehole transient electromagnetics results demonstrate that traditional transient electromagnetics with a vertical magnetic dipole source is not well suited for monitoring a thin horizontal resistive target. This is due to the mainly horizontal current system, which is induced by a vertical magnetic dipole.  相似文献   

GIS应用中认知阶层性对地理信息有效传输的影响     

陈川  张晓帆  薛重生  张利华 《地理与地理信息科学》2005,21(3):10-13

GIS应用的最终目的是使其所包含的地理信息有效传递。该文从信息科学、认知科学及地理信息科学角度出发,指出认知空间和地理空间的阶层对应性是实现地理信息有效传递的基础;提出两类空间重叠区的概念,并阐明其在信息有效传递过程中的重要作用;确立认知科学在GIS应用中的两个基本原则是建立这种对应性的理论依据;强调信息制造者(制图者)是构建这种对应性的实施者,而信息接收者(用户)对认知空间分类阶层的正确识别则是构建这种对应性的出发点。  相似文献   

Recent explosive eruptions and volcano hazards at Soputan volcano—a basalt stratovolcano in north Sulawesi, Indonesia     

Kushendratno  John S. Pallister  Kristianto  Farid Ruskanda Bina  Wendy McCausland  Simon Carn  Nia Haerani  Julia Griswold  Ron Keeler 《Bulletin of Volcanology》2012,74(7):1581-1609

Soputan is a high-alumina basalt stratovolcano located in the active North Sulawesi-Sangihe Islands magmatic arc. Although immediately adjacent to the still geothermally active Quaternary Tondono Caldera, Soputan’s magmas are geochemically distinct from those of the caldera and from other magmas in the arc. Unusual for a basalt volcano, Soputan produces summit lava domes and explosive eruptions with high-altitude ash plumes and pyroclastic flows—eight explosive eruptions during the period 2003–2011. Our field observations, remote sensing, gas emission, seismic, and petrologic analyses indicate that Soputan is an open-vent-type volcano that taps basalt magma derived from the arc-mantle wedge, accumulated and fractionated in a deep-crustal reservoir and transported slowly or staged at shallow levels prior to eruption. A combination of high phenocryst content, extensive microlite crystallization and separation of a gas phase at shallow levels results in a highly viscous basalt magma and explosive eruptive style. The open-vent structure and frequent eruptions indicate that Soputan will likely erupt again in the next decade, perhaps repeatedly. Explosive eruptions in the Volcano Explosivity Index (VEI) 2–3 range and lava dome growth are most probable, with a small chance of larger VEI 4 eruptions. A rapid ramp up in seismicity preceding the recent eruptions suggests that future eruptions may have no more than a few days of seismic warning. Risk to population in the region is currently greatest for villages located on the southern and western flanks of the volcano where flow deposits are directed by topography. In addition, Soputan’s explosive eruptions produce high-altitude ash clouds that pose a risk to air traffic in the region.  相似文献   

Sigmoidal particle density distribution in a subplinian scoria fall deposit   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Julia Eychenne  Jean-Luc Le Pennec 《Bulletin of Volcanology》2012,74(10):2243-2249

A general expression to describe particle density distribution in tephra fall deposits is essential to improve fallout tephra mass determination and numerical modelling of tephra dispersion. To obtain particle density distributions in tephra fall deposits, we performed high-resolution componentry and particle density analyses on samples from the 2006 subplinian eruption of Tungurahua volcano in Ecuador. Six componentry classes, including pumice and scoria, have been identified in our sample collection. We determined the class of 300 clasts in each 0.5? fractions from ?4.5? to 3.5? and carried out water pycnometry density measurements on selected size fractions. Results indicate that the mean particle density increases with ? up to a plateau of ~2.6?g/cm³ for clasts finer than 1.5?. The density of scoria and pumice increases between ?3 and 1?, while dense particle density is sub-constant with grainsize. We show that the mean particle density ?? of the vesicular fractions is a function of grainsize i (? scale) given by a sigmoidal law: $ \mu (i)={{{K+\beta }} \left/ {{\left( {1+\alpha {e^{-ri }}} \right)}} \right.} $ , where K, ??, ?? and r are constants. These sigmoidal distributions can be used to determine accurately the load of each componentry class and should be applicable to many tephra deposits and for modelling purposes.  相似文献   

Observations of asymmetry in contrasting wave‐ and tidally‐dominated environments within a mesotidal basin: implications for estuarine morphological evolution          下载免费PDF全文

Stephen Hunt  Karin R. Bryan  Julia C. Mullarney  Mark Pritchard 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2016,41(15):2207-2222

Tides are often considered to be the dominant hydrodynamic process within mesotidal estuaries although waves can also have a large influence on intertidal erosion rates. Here, we use a combination of hydrodynamic measurements and sediment deposition records to determine the conditions under which observed waves are ‘morphologically significant’, in which case they influence tidal and suspended sediment flux asymmetry and subsequently infilling over geomorphological timescales. Morphological significant conditions were evaluated using data from contrasting arms in a dendritic mesotidal estuary, in which the orientation of the arms relative to the prevailing wind results in a marked difference in wave conditions, deposition rates and morphology. By defining the morphological significance of waves as a product of the magnitude of bed shear stress and frequency of occurrence, even small (but frequently occurring) winds are shown to be capable of generating waves that are morphologically significant given sufficient fetch. In the arm in which fetch length is restricted, only stronger but rare storm events can influence sediment flux and therefore tides are more morphologically significant over longer timescales. Water depth within this mesotidal estuary is shown to be a critical parameter in controlling morphological significance; the rapid attenuation of short period waves with depth results in contrasting patterns of erosion occurring during neaps and accretion during springs. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Geodynamic evolution of a forearc rift in the southernmost Mariana Arc     

Julia M. Ribeiro  Robert J. Stern  Fernando Martinez  Osamu Ishizuka  Susan G. Merle  Katherine Kelley  Elizabeth Y. Anthony  Minghua Ren  Yasuhiko Ohara  Mark Reagan  Guillaume Girard  Sherman Bloomer 《Island Arc》2013,22(4):453-476

The southernmost Mariana forearc stretched to accommodate opening of the Mariana Trough backarc basin in late Neogene time, erupting basalts at 3.7–2.7 Ma that are now exposed in the Southeast Mariana Forearc Rift (SEMFR). Today, SEMFR is a broad zone of extension that formed on hydrated, forearc lithosphere and overlies the shallow subducting slab (slab depth ≤ 30–50 km). It comprises NW–SE trending subparallel deeps, 3–16 km wide, that can be traced ≥ ∼30 km from the trench almost to the backarc spreading center, the Malaguana‐Gadao Ridge (MGR). While forearcs are usually underlain by serpentinized harzburgites too cold to melt, SEMFR crust is mostly composed of Pliocene, low‐K basaltic to basaltic andesite lavas that are compositionally similar to arc lavas and backarc basin (BAB) lavas, and thus defines a forearc region that recently witnessed abundant igneous activity in the form of seafloor spreading. SEMFR igneous rocks have low Na₈, Ti₈, and Fe₈, consistent with extensive melting, at ∼23 ± 6.6 km depth and 1239 ± 40°C, by adiabatic decompression of depleted asthenospheric mantle metasomatized by slab‐derived fluids. Stretching of pre‐existing forearc lithosphere allowed BAB‐like mantle to flow along the SEMFR and melt, forming new oceanic crust. Melts interacted with pre‐existing forearc lithosphere during ascent. The SEMFR is no longer magmatically active and post‐magmatic tectonic activity dominates the rift.  相似文献