Implications of model uncertainty for the mapping of hillslope‐scale soil erosion predictions     

Richard E. Brazier  Keith J. Beven  Steven G. Anthony  John S. Rowan 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2001,26(12):1333-1352

An integrated modelling approach (MIRSED) which utilizes the process‐based soil erosion model WEPP (Water Erosion Prediction Project) is presented for the assessment of hillslope‐scale soil erosion at five sites throughout England and Wales. The methodology draws upon previous uncertainty analysis of the WEPP hillslope soil erosion model by the authors to qualify model results within an uncertainty framework. A method for incorporating model uncertainty from a range of sources is discussed as a first step towards using and learning from results produced through the GLUE (Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation) technique. Results are presented and compared to available observed data, which illustrate that levels of uncertainty are significant and must be taken into account if a meaningful understanding of output from models such as WEPP is to be achieved. Furthermore, the collection of quality, observed data is underlined for two reasons: as an essential tool in the development of soil erosion modelling and also to allow further constraint of model uncertainty. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Historic storms of the North Sea, British Isles and Nortwest Europe : H. Lamb, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 1991. xi + 204 pp., hardcover, £55 (US$95), ISBN 0-521-37522-3     

Keith Weston 《Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans》1992,16(6)

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Geochemistry of waters in the Valley of Ten Thousand Smokes region, Alaska     

T.E.C. Keith  J.M. Thompson  R.A. Hutchinson  L.D. White 《Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research》1992,49(3-4)

Meteoric waters from cold springs and streams outside of the 1912 eruptive deposits filling the Valley of Ten Thousand Smokes (VTTS) and in the upper parts of the two major rivers draining the 1912 deposits have similar chemical trends. Thermal springs issue in the mid-valley area along a 300-m lateral section of ash-flow tuff, and range in temperature from 21 to 29.8°C in early summer and from 15 to 17°C in mid-summer. Concentrations of major and minor chemical constituents in the thermal waters are nearly identical regardless of temperature. Waters in the downvalley parts of the rivers draining the 1912 deposits are mainly mixtures of cold meteoric waters and thermal waters of which the mid-valley thermal spring waters are representative. The weathering reactions of cold waters with the 1912 deposits appear to have stabilized and add only subordinate amounts of chemical constituents to the rivers relative to those contributed by the thermal waters. Isotopic data indicate that the mid-valley thermal spring waters are meteoric, but data is inconclusive regarding the heat source. The thermal waters could be either from a shallow part of a hydrothermal system beneath the 1912 vent region or from an incompletely cooled, welded tuff lens deep in the 1912 ash-flow sheet of the upper River Lethe area.Bicarbonate-sulfate waters resulting from interaction of near-surface waters and the cooling 1953–1968 southwest Trident plug issue from thermal springs south of Katmai Pass and near Mageik Creek, although the Mageik Creek spring waters are from a well-established, more deeply circulating hydrothermal system. Katmai caldera lake waters are a result of acid gases from vigorous drowned fumaroles dissolving in lake waters composed of snowmelt and precipitation.  相似文献   

Nant-y-moch grassland improvement study,A. M. Roberts,J. A. Hudson and G. Roberts,Institute of Hydrology,Report No. 104, 1990. No. of pages: 85. Price: £7.00. ISBN 0-948540-16-8     

Keith Richards 《地球表面变化过程与地形》1992,17(6):635-635

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Procedures in sedimentary petrology: E. Carver (Editor). Wiley,New York,N.Y., 1971, 653 pp., £ 11.75.     

Keith A.W. Crook 《Sedimentary Geology》1972

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Proceedings of the third conference on origins of life-planetary astronomy: edited by Lynn Margulis. Springer-Verlag,New York (1973) 268 pp. $14–80     

Keith A Kvenvolden 《Geochimica et cosmochimica acta》1973,37(12):2707-2708

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Reply to Discussion of “Perceptual models of uncertainty for socio-hydrological systems: a flood risk change example”*     

Ida K. Westerberg  Giuliano Di Baldassarre  Keith J. Beven  Gemma Coxon  Tobias Krueger 《水文科学杂志》2020,65(Z2):2001-2003

ABSTRACT

Ertsen discusses the representation of reality and uncertainty in our paper, raising three critical points. In response to the first, we agree that discussion of different interpretations of the concept of uncertainty is important when developing perceptual models – making different uncertainty interpretations explicit was a key motivation behind our method. Secondly, we do not, as Ertsen suggests, deny anyone who is not a “certified” scientist to have relevant knowledge. The elicitation of diverse views by discussing perceptual models is a basis for open discussion and decision making. Thirdly, Ertsen suggests that it is not useful to treat socio-hydrological systems as if they exist. We argue that we act as “pragmatic realists” in most practical applications by treating socio-hydrological systems as an external reality that can be known. But the uncertainty that arises from our knowledge limitations needs to be recognized, as it may impact on practical decision making and associated costs.  相似文献   

Marine policy and disarmament     

Keith D. Suter 《Marine Policy》1983,7(3):213-215

Disarmament has again become a major public concern in many nations. The main manifestations of this development have been demonstrations and marches and mass media attention to the possible consequences of a nuclear war. Less publicized has been governmental work, including that at the United Nations, in negotiating disarmament treaties.  相似文献   

The Solar program of the Kitt Peak National Observatory     

A. Keith Pierce 《Solar physics》1969,6(3):498-503

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Generation of complete theoretical seismograms for SH—     

Keith Nakanishi  Fred Schwab  Leon Knopoff 《Geophysical Journal International》1977,48(3):525-530

Summary. We report the initial results of our attempts to obtain theoretical seismograms for direct comparison with the experimental time series obtained with the long-period instruments of the WWSSN. The entire theoretical seismogram, including both body waves and surface waves, can be generated for a spherical, anelastic earth by simple inverse Fourier transformation of the sum of the propagating fundamental and higher-mode surface waves. The key to success in reproducing the WWSSN records involves the number of modes, and the minimum period used in these computations; here we use eight modes and a minimum period of 2 s. Efficient computational algorithms make it possible to handle up to 2000 frequency points for each mode; approximately 200 layers are used to model the radial heterogeneity of the earth; attenuation is treated exactly. Examples are given of the SH theoretical seismograms resulting from dislocation sources buried at various depths in the Earth.  相似文献