Naval power in the Indian Ocean: Threats,bluffs and fantasies: Philip Towle The Strategic and Defence Studies Centre,Australian National University. Canberra, 1979, 121 pp     

Ken Booth 《Marine Policy》1981,5(1):86-87

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Transboundary impacts on regional ground water modeling in Texas   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Rainwater K  Stovall J  Frailey S  Urban L 《Ground water》2005,43(5):706-716

Recent legislation required regional grassroots water resources planning across the entire state of Texas. The Texas Water Development Board (TWDB), the state's primary water resource planning agency, divided the state into 16 planning regions. Each planning group developed plans to manage both ground water and surface water sources and to meet future demands of various combinations of domestic, agricultural, municipal, and industrial water consumers. This presentation describes the challenges in developing a ground water model for the Llano Estacado Regional Water Planning Group (LERWPG), whose region includes 21 counties in the Southern High Plains of Texas. While surface water is supplied to several cities in this region, the vast majority of the regional water use comes from the High Plains aquifer system, often locally referred to as the Ogallala Aquifer. Over 95% of the ground water demand is for irrigated agriculture. The LERWPG had to predict the impact of future TWDB-projected water demands, as provided by the TWDB, on the aquifer for the period 2000 to 2050. If detrimental impacts were noted, alternative management strategies must be proposed. While much effort was spent on evaluating the current status of the ground water reserves, an appropriate numerical model of the aquifer system was necessary to demonstrate future impacts of the predicted withdrawals as well as the effects of the alternative strategies. The modeling effort was completed in the summer of 2000. This presentation concentrates on the political, scientific, and nontechnical issues in this planning process that complicated the modeling effort. Uncertainties in data, most significantly in distribution and intensity of recharge and withdrawals, significantly impacted the calibration and predictive modeling efforts. Four predictive scenarios, including baseline projections, recurrence of the drought of record, precipitation enhancement, and reduced irrigation demand, were simulated to identify counties at risk of low final ground water storage volume or low levels of satisfied demand by 2050.  相似文献   

Persistent organic pollutants in marine birds, arctic hare and ringed seals near Qikiqtarjuaq, Nunavut, Canada     

Mallory ML  Braune BM  Wayland M  Drouillard KG 《Marine pollution bulletin》2005,50(1):95-101

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Microbial responses using denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis to oil and chemical dispersant in enclosed ecosystems     

Yoshida A  Nomura H  Toyoda K  Nishino T  Seo Y  Yamada M  Nishimura M  Wada M  Okamoto K  Shibata A  Takada H  Kogure K  Ohwada K 《Marine pollution bulletin》2006,52(1):89-95

Microbial responses to the addition of oil with or without a chemical dispersant were examined in mesocosm and microcosm experiments by using denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis of bacterial ribosomal DNA and direct cell counting. When a water-soluble fraction of oil was added to seawater, increases in cell density were observed in the first 24h, followed by a decrease in abundance and a change in bacterial species composition. After addition of an oil-dispersant mixture, increases in cell density and changes in community structure coincided, and the amount of bacteria remained high. These phenomena also occurred in response to addition of only dispersant. Our results suggest that the chemical dispersant may be used as a nutrient source by some bacterial groups and may directly or indirectly prevent the growth of other bacterial groups.  相似文献   

Assessing the potential impact of climate change on the UK’s electricity network   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Lynsey McColl  Erika J. Palin  Hazel E. Thornton  David M. H. Sexton  Richard Betts  Ken Mylne 《Climatic change》2012,115(3-4):821-835

We investigate how weather affects the UK’s electricity network, by examining past data of weather-related faults on the transmission and distribution networks. By formalising the current relationship between weather-related faults and weather, we use climate projections from a regional climate model (RCM) to quantitatively assess how the frequency of these faults may change in the future. This study found that the incidences of both lightning and solar heat faults are projected to increase in the future. There is evidence that the conditions that cause flooding faults may increase in the future, but a reduction cannot be ruled out. Due to the uncertainty associated with future wind projections, there is no clear signal associated with the future frequency of wind and gale faults, however snow, sleet and blizzard faults are projected to decrease due to a reduction in the number of snow days.  相似文献   

Trends in flood seasonality of the River Ouse (Northern England) from archive and instrumental sources since AD 1600   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Neil Macdonald 《Climatic change》2012,112(3-4):901-923

The last decade has witnessed an increase in the application of historical records (historical and documentary) in developing a more complete understanding of high-magnitude flood frequency; but little consideration has been given to the additional information that documentary accounts contain, particularly relating to flood seasonality. This paper examines the methods and approaches available in long-term flood seasonality analysis and applies them to the River Ouse (Yorkshire) in Northern England since AD 1600. A detailed historical flood record is available for the City of York consisting of annual maxima flood levels since AD 1877, with documentary accounts prior to this. A detailed analysis of long-term flood seasonality requires confidence in the accuracy and completeness of flood records; as a result the augmented flood series are analysed using three strategies: firstly, considering all recorded floods since AD 1600; secondly, through detailed analysis of the more complete record since AD 1800; and finally, applying a threshold to focus on high-magnitude flood events since AD 1800. The results identify later winter flooding, particularly in the second half of the twentieth century, with a notable reduction in summer flood events at York during the twentieth century compared to previous centuries. Flood generating mechanisms vary little between the periods considered, with a general pattern of stability in the ratio of floods incorporating a snowmelt component.  相似文献   

Measurement of methane flux over an evergreen coniferous forest canopy using a relaxed eddy accumulation system with tuneable diode laser spectroscopy detection     

Ayaka Sakabe  Ken Hamotani  Yoshiko Kosugi  Masahito Ueyama  Kenshi Takahashi  Akito Kanazawa  Masayuki Itoh 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2012,109(1-2):39-49

Very few studies have conducted long-term observations of methane (CH₄) flux over forest canopies. In this study, we continuously measured CH₄ fluxes over an evergreen coniferous (Japanese cypress) forest canopy throughout 1?year, using a micrometeorological relaxed eddy accumulation (REA) system with tuneable diode laser spectroscopy (TDLS) detection. The Japanese cypress forest, which is a common forest type in warm-temperate Asian monsoon regions with a wet summer, switched seasonally between a sink and source of CH₄ probably because of competition by methanogens and methanotrophs, which are both influenced by soil conditions (e.g., soil temperature and soil moisture). At hourly to daily timescales, the CH₄ fluxes were sensitive to rainfall, probably because CH₄ emission increased and/or absorption decreased during and after rainfall. The observed canopy-scale fluxes showed complex behaviours beyond those expected from previous plot-scale measurements and the CH₄ fluxes changed from sink to source and vice versa.  相似文献   

European floods during the winter 1783/1784: scenarios of an extreme event during the ‘Little Ice Age’   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Rudolf Brázdil  Gaston R. Demarée  Mathias Deutsch  Emmanuel Garnier  Andrea Kiss  Jürg Luterbacher  Neil Macdonald  Christian Rohr  Petr Dobrovolný  Petr Kolář  Kateřina Chromá 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2010,100(1-2):163-189

The Lakagígar eruption in Iceland during 1783 was followed by the severe winter of 1783/1784, which was characterised by low temperatures, frozen soils, ice-bound watercourses and high rates of snow accumulation across much of Europe. Sudden warming coupled with rainfall led to rapid snowmelt, resulting in a series of flooding phases across much of Europe. The first phase of flooding occurred in late December 1783–early January 1784 in England, France, the Low Countries and historical Hungary. The second phase at the turn of February–March 1784 was of greater extent, generated by the melting of an unusually large accumulation of snow and river ice, affecting catchments across France and Central Europe (where it is still considered as one of the most disastrous known floods), throughout the Danube catchment and in southeast Central Europe. The third and final phase of flooding occurred mainly in historical Hungary during late March and early April 1784. The different impacts and consequences of the above floods on both local and regional scales were reflected in the economic and societal responses, material damage and human losses. The winter of 1783/1784 can be considered as typical, if severe, for the Little Ice Age period across much of Europe.  相似文献   

Reconstruction of long-term precipitation records for Edinburgh: an examination of the mechanisms responsible for temporal variability in precipitation     

N. Macdonald  I. D. Phillips  J. Thorpe 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2008,92(3-4):141-154

Summary Recent dry years (combined dry winter and summer months) within the UK (2005 and 2006) have enhanced concerns relating to long term water resources and future water provision in large conurbations. This paper examines the mechanisms responsible for precipitation variability for five different areas in Edinburgh (precipitation regions) using composite historic precipitation records for the period 1861–2005. Trend analysis and principal component analysis (PCA) were undertaken to examine precipitation variability over time and space. Annual correlation co-efficients were derived for relationships between precipitation areas, atmospheric–oceanographic variations and geographic parameters. Stepwise regression models were constructed to specify annual precipitation, through atmospheric variations, for each of the precipitation areas. Significant downward trends in precipitation (p < 0.05) were noted in two out of the five precipitation areas, with one principal component representing precipitation variability over Edinburgh and the Pentland Hills. Precipitation variability is best explained by fluctuations in pressure, altitude and proximity to coast. Precipitation trends cannot be explained by changes in atmospheric circulation patterns. Authors’ addresses: N. Macdonald, Department of Geography, University of Liverpool, Liverpool L69 7ZT, United Kingdom; I. D. Phillips, J. Thorpe, School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Edgbaston B15 2TT, United Kingdom.  相似文献   

Photometric,spectral phase and temperature effects on 4 Vesta and HED meteorites: Implications for the Dawn mission     

Vishnu Reddy  Juan A. Sanchez  Andreas Nathues  Nicholas A. Moskovitz  Jian-Yang Li  Edward A. Cloutis  Ken Archer  Roy A. Tucker  Michael J. Gaffey  J. Paul Mann  Holger Sierks  Ulrich Schade 《Icarus》2012,217(1):153-168

Phase angle and temperature are two important parameters that affect the photometric and spectral behavior of planetary surfaces in telescopic and spacecraft data. We have derived photometric and spectral phase functions for the Asteroid 4 Vesta, the first target of the Dawn mission, using ground-based telescopes operating at visible and near-infrared wavelengths (0.4–2.5 μm). Photometric lightcurve observations of Vesta were conducted on 15 nights at a phase angle range of 3.8–25.7° using duplicates of the seven narrowband Dawn Framing Camera filters (0.4–1.0 μm). Rotationally resolved visible (0.4–0.7 μm) and near-IR spectral observations (0.7–2.5 μm) were obtained on four nights over a similar phase angle range. Our Vesta photometric observations suggest the phase slope is between 0.019 and 0.029 mag/deg. The G parameter ranges from 0.22 to 0.37 consistent with previous results (e.g., Lagerkvist, C.-I., Magnusson, P., Williams, I.P., Buontempo, M.E., Argyle, R.W., Morrison, L.V. [1992]. Astron. Astrophys. Suppl. Ser. 94, 43–71; Piironen, J., Magnusson, P., Lagerkvist, C.-I., Williams, I.P., Buontempo, M.E., Morrison, L.V. [1997]. Astron. Astrophys. Suppl. Ser. 121, 489–497; Hasegawa, S. et al. [2009]. Lunar Planet. Sci. 40. ID 1503) within the uncertainty. We found that in the phase angle range of 0° < α ? 25° for every 10° increase in phase angle Vesta’s visible slope (0.5–0.7 μm) increases 20%, Band I and Band II depths increase 2.35% and 1.5% respectively, and the BAR value increase 0.30. Phase angle spectral measurements of the eucrite Moama in the lab show a decrease in Band I and Band II depths and BAR from the lowest phase angle 13° to 30°, followed by possible small increases up to 90°, and then a dramatic drop between 90° and 120° phase angle. Temperature-induced spectral effects shift the Band I and II centers of the pyroxene bands to longer wavelengths with increasing temperature. We have derived new correction equations using a temperature series (80–400 K) of HED meteorite spectra that will enable interpretation of telescopic and spacecraft spectral data using laboratory calibrations at room temperature (300 K).  相似文献