Certainty, uncertainty, and the spatiality of disease: a West Nile Virus example     

Tom Koch  Kenneth Denike 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2007,21(5):523-531

The problem is not uncertainty—proposed here as an inevitable condition—but the chimera of certainty asserted by most contemporary researchers. Problems of data definition, collection, and their use are reviewed in terms of spatial epidemiology and health data with examples drawn from several areas of contemporary health research. The argument is that preconceptions limit data modeled in a manner assuming its completeness. The result, as the West Nile Virus example seeks to demonstrate, may obscure other patterns and limit avenues of research.  相似文献   

System-wide submerged aquatic vegetation model for Chesapeake Bay     

Carl F. Cerco  Kenneth Moore 《Estuaries and Coasts》2001,24(4):522-534

A predictive model of submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) biomass is coupled to a eutrophication model of Chesapeake Bay. Domain of the model includes the mainstem of the bay as well as tidal portions of major embayments and tributaries. Three SAV communities are modeled: ZOSTERA, RUPPIA, and FRESHWATER. The model successfully computes the spatial distribution and abundance of SAV for the period 1985–1994. Spatial distribution is primarily determined by computed light attenuation. Sensivitity analysis to reductions in nutrient and solids loads indicates nutrient controls will enhance abundance primarily in areas that presently support SAV. Restoration of SAV to areas in which it does not presently exist requires solids controls, alone or in combination with nutrient controls. For regions in which SAV populations exist at the refuge level or greater, improvements in SAV abundance are expected within 2 to 10 years of load reductions. For regions in which no refuge population exists, recovery time is unpredictable and will depend on propagule supply.  相似文献   

Response of estuarine marsh vegetation to interannual variations in precipitation     

Kenneth H. Dunton  Beau Hardegree  Terry E. Whitledge 《Estuaries and Coasts》2001,24(6):851-861

The response of deltaic emergent marsh vegetation to increases in precipitation was examined over a 14-mo period at three sites in the lower Nueces Estuary in south Texas. At all three sites, significant changes in plant biomass, percent cover, and allocation of aboveground and belowground tissues were associated with more than double the rainfall in late winter and early spring 1992 compared to the previous year and the 50-yr average for this region. Water column salinities, which ranged from 10‰ to 35‰ at all three sites in 1991, remained below 10‰ through August 1992. Significant changes in marsh vegetative structure included decreases in bare space, increases in the percent cover and aboveground biomass of a relatively less salt tolerant halophytes (Borrichia frutescens), and significant increases in root:shoot ratios inB. frutescens, Batis maritima andSuaeda linearis (inSalicornia virginica root:shoot ratios decreased significantly). Higher precipitation generally led to an overall increase in the biomass of most marsh perennials, but these increases were not statistically significant. For one species,Lycium carolinianum, additional rainfall extended its growing season through August 1992, 2 mo longer than in the previous year. The expansion (+58%) ofB. frutescens at one site was also coincident with the significant loss ofB. maritima, whose cover decreased nearly 20%. In an ecological context, these responses suggest that precipitation events in arid environments may be considered a major physical disturbance that can result in large changes in the composition and relative abundance of emergent vascular plants over a relatively short period. The long-term significance of these changes is unknown and demonstrates the value of ecological studies that are conducted over several years for a more complete understanding of the dynamic processes that regulate marsh productivity.  相似文献   

Transitional paleomagnetic field behavior: Preferred paths or patches?     

Kenneth A. Hoffman 《Surveys in Geophysics》1996,17(2):207-211

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Photosynthetic production and biomass of the subtropical seagrass halodule wrightii along an estuarine gradient     

Kenneth H. Dunton 《Estuaries and Coasts》1996,19(2):436-447

Seasonal patterns of aboveground and belowground biomass, leaf chlorophyll (chl) content, and in situ differences in photosynthetic parameters were examined in the shoal grass Halodule wrightii along an estuarine gradient in the western Gulf of Mexico. Continuous measurements of biomass were collected over a 5-yr period (1989–1994) with respect to several abiotic factors in three estuarine systems that were characterized by significant differences in salinity and ambient dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN; NO₂ ^?+NO₃ ^?) regimes that ranged from 5–25‰ (0–80 μM DIN) in the Guadalupe estuary to 35–55‰ (0–9 μM DIN) in the upper Laguna Madre, Photosynthesis versus irradiance (P vs. I) parameters, measured from December 1989 to April 1991, showed no significant differences among the three sites, and there were no significant differences in leaf chlorophyll content and chl a:b ratios among sites over the entire 5-yr period. Saturation irradiance in Halodule wrightii is estimated at 319 μmoles photons m^?2 s^?1 based on measurements collected at the three sites over a 2-yr period. No strong seasonal variations were observed in total plant biomass, but root:shoot ratios (RSR) showed a clear pattern of maximum RSR values in winter and minimum values in summer. There were no significant differences in RSR among sites, and no consistent correlations could be established between plant parameters and sediment porewater NH₄ ⁺, salinity, or temperature. Sediment porewater NH₄ ⁺ values generally ranged from 50 μM to 400 μM (average 130–150 μM) but could not be correlated with significant differences in sediment composition between the sites. The high productivity of Halodule wrightii under a variety of light, nutrient, and salinity conditions explains its ubiquitous distribution and opportunistic strategy as a colonizing species. However, the persistence of a dense algal bloom in Laguna Madre coincident with low DIN levels (<5 μM) contradicts previously accepted relationships on nutrient stimulation of algal growth, and provides strong evidence that water quality parameters for estuarine seagrasses are decidedly estuarine-specific. Consequently, a knowledge of the long-term history of estuarine systems is critical to habitat managers, who are required to establish minimum water quality criteria for the protection of submerged aquatic vegetation in estuarine systems. *** DIRECT SUPPORT *** A01BY074 00028  相似文献   

Sr-Isotope record of Quaternary marine terraces on the California coast and off Hawaii     

Kenneth R. Ludwig  Daniel R. Muhs  Kathleen R. Simmons  James G. Moore 《Quaternary Research》1992,37(3)

Strontium-isotopic ratios of dated corals have been obtained from submerged reefs formed during Quaternary glacial periods off the Hawaiian islands. These data, combined with data from deep-sea sediments, tightly constrain the secular variation of marine ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr for the past 800,000 yr. Although long-term trends are apparent, no significant (>0.02‰), rapid (<100,000 yr) excursions in ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr were resolved nor did we observe any samples with ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr greater than that of modern seawater. Strontium in mollusks from elevated marine terraces formed during interglacial periods on the southern California coast show resolvable and consistent variations in ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr which, when compared to the trend of Quaternary marine ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr, can be used to infer uplift rates and define approximate ages for the higher terraces. The Sr-isotope age estimates indicate that uplift rates vary among crustal blocks and were not necessarily constant with time. No contrast in Sr-isotopic ratios between similar-age Hawaiian and California fossils was observed, confirming that any change in marine ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr from glacial to interglacial periods must be small. A realistic appraisal of the potential of Sr-isotope stratigraphy for chronometric applications in the Quaternary suggests that the technique will be limited to relatively coarse distinctions in age.  相似文献   

The Air Force Global Weather Central operational boundary-layer model     

Kenneth D. Hadeen  Arnold L. Friend 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》1972,3(1):98-112

A limited-area seven-layer physical-numerical model for the lower tropospheric region (surface - 1600m) is described. The grid interval, approximately 190km, is half that of the standard numerical weather-prediction grid used in the hemispheric free atmospheric operational model at the Air Force Global Weather Central (AFGWC). This model is an integral part of the complete AFGWC meso-scale (sub-synoptic) numerical analysis and prediction system and is used to provide greater horizontal and vertical resolution in both numerical analyses and forecasts.Important features of this boundary-layer model include: a completely automated objective analysis of input data; the transport of heat and moisture by three-dimensional wind flow; latent heat exchange in water substance phase changes; and eddy fluxes of heat and water vapor.Input data are conventional synoptic surface and upper air reports. Other operational AFGWC prediction models provide input in the form of horizontal wind components at the upper boundary and an estimate of cloudiness above the boundary layer. Forecasts for the lower boundary and surface layer are empirically derived. Despite some approximations which broadly simplify the real planetary boundary-layer processes, operational use for highly weather-sensitive Air Weather Service support indicates that the model is capable of producing accurate detailed forecasts for periods of up to 24h.A modified version of this paper was presented at the IUGG-IAMAP-AMS conference on Planetary Boundary Layers at Boulder, Colo., 18–21 March, 1970, and at the 5th annual Congress of the Canadian Meteorological Society, at Macdonald College, 12–14 May, 1971.  相似文献   

Electromagnetic propagation in an idealized earth crust waveguide,part I     

James R. Wait  Kenneth P. Spies 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1972,101(1):174-187

Summary The electromagnetic mode characteristics for the earthcrust waveguide are considered. The formulation allows for any depth-conductivity profile, but the specific results are only for a homogeneous sub-surface waveguide region with a finitely conducting lower layer and a perfectly conducting upper layer. Attenuation rates of the order of 1 dB/km are possible for operating frequencies of 20 kHz or lower if the crystalline rock in the waveguide has conductivities less than 10^–6 mhos per meter.  相似文献   

Steady state hodographs in a baroclinic boundary layer     

MacKay  Kenneth P. 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》1971,2(2):161-168

If the steady-state geostrophic wind vector varies exponentially with height in the planetary boundary layer, calculated hodographs of the 24-hour mean wind resemble the classic Ekman spiral distorted by thermal effects. For such an assumed distribution, Lettau's (1967) conclusion that the effects of thermal influence on the steady-state boundary-layer winds can be linearly superimposed on the effects of internal friction is justified.The minimum value of the cross-isobar angle of the surface wind for a given magnitude of the thermal wind vector occurs when that vector points about 345° to the right of the surface geostrophic wind vector and the maximum value occurs when it points at an azimuth of about 120° relative to the surface geostrophic wind vector. The range of values of the cross-isobar angle is almost directly proportional to the magnitude of the thermal wind vector.Hodographs resulting from the assumed variation of the geostrophic wind have approximately the same shape as 24-hour mean hodographs at two locations over the Great Plains.This work is part of a thesis submitted to the University of Wisconsin in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Ph.D. Degree, written under the supervision of Professor H. Lettau, Department of Meteorology.  相似文献   

Th-228/Th-232 and Pb-210 geochronologies in marine and lake sediments     

Minoru Koide  Kenneth W. Bruland  Edward D. Goldberg 《Geochimica et cosmochimica acta》1973,37(5):1171-1187

Two dating techniques, applicable to coastal marine and lacustrine sediments over periods ranging from years to a century, evolve from the natural radioactive series: Th-228/ Th-232 from the Th-232 series and Pb-210 from the U-238 series.There is an excess of Th-228 over and above that supported by the parents Th-232 or Ra-228 in such deposits. The amounts of Th-232-supported and Ra-228-supported Th-228 are similar, indicating that both radium and thorium isotopes are removed from solution in these coastal zones quite rapidly after introduction or formation. The radium isotopes are probably transferred from the overlying waters to the sediments via phytoplankton, where they are reportedly enriched. In the surface levels of the deposits analyzed, there is nearly an order of magnitude more unsupported than supported Th-228. This excess Th-228 can be used both for dating purposes over time periods of the order of a decade and as permissive evidence that the uppermost levels of the deposit were obtained during the coring operation. Preliminary results from several lakes indicate the possibility that Th-228/Th-232 geochronologies are held by their sediments.Average rates of accumulation of lake sediments have been obtained from decreases in Pb-210 activity as a function of depth, although surface layers of the deposits may not have been recovered in the coring operation. Finally, Pb-210 geochronologies have been extended from varved to unvarved marine sediments.  相似文献