Loss caused by earthquakes: rapid estimates   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Frolova  N. I.  Larionov  V. I.  Bonnin  J.  Sushchev  S. P.  Ugarov  A. N.  Kozlov  M. A. 《Natural Hazards》2016,84(1):63-76

Rapid population growth and increased economic activity impose an urgent challenge on the sustainability of water resources in Beijing. Water resources system is a complex uncertain system under climate change which is of vulnerability. But water resources system vulnerability research is relatively weak. In this study, we present a multifunctional hierarchy indicator system for the performance evaluation of water resources vulnerability (WRV) under climate change. We established an evaluation model, i.e., analytic hierarchy process combining set pair analysis (AHPSPA) model, for assessing WRV, in which weight is determined by the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method and the evaluation degrees are determined by the set pair analysis (SPA) theory. According to the principle of scientificalness, representative, completeness and operability, the index systems and standard of water resources vulnerability evaluation are established based on the analysis of sensibility and adaptability which include five subsystems: climate change, water resources change, social and economic infrastructure, water use level and water security capability. The AHPSPA model is used to assess water resource vulnerability in Beijing with 26 indexes under eight kinds of future climate change scenarios. Certain and uncertain information quantity of the WRV is calculated by connection numbers in the AHPSPA model. Results show that the WRV of Beijing is in the middle vulnerability (3 or III) under above-mentioned different climate change scenarios. The uncertain information is between 37.77 and 39.99 % in the WRV evaluation system in Beijing. Compared with present situation, the WRV will become better under scenario I and III and will become worse under scenario II, scenario IV, scenario representative concentration pathways (RCP)2.6, scenario RCP4.5, scenario RCP6.0 and scenario RCP8.5. In addition, we find that water resources change and water use level factors play more important role in the evaluation system of water resource vulnerability in Beijing. Finally, we make some suggestions for water resources management of Beijing.  相似文献   

Seismic risk assessment and mapping at different levels     

Frolova  N. I.  Larionov  V. I.  Bonnin  J.  Sushchev  S. P.  Ugarov  A. N.  Kozlov  M. A. 《Natural Hazards》2016,80(1):43-67

In 2012, the damage costs of floods in Russia amounted to about €300m, and these floods have caused nearly 200 fatalities (Kotlyakov et al. in Reg Res Rus 3(1):32–39, 2013). Risk assessment is one of the most pressing scientific topics in Russia, but most of the works are devoted to natural hazards assessment. The purpose of this work is to estimate the influence of hazardous hydrological phenomena on society. The field research was conducted in the Slavyansk municipal district in the Krasnodar region (the south-western part of Russia), which is a highly populated coastal territory with a high frequency of hazardous hydrological events. Modified methods of the Ministry of the Russian Federation for Affairs for Civil Defence, Emergencies and Elimination of Consequences of Natural Disasters (EMERCOM) were used for potential economic damage calculation. The paper did not only focus on direct, tangible risks, but also included social risk (i.e. risk to life and health). Social vulnerability has been calculated directly as a percentage of vulnerable people, estimated in opinion polls, while in many recent papers the social vulnerability index was calculated as a combination of several statistical indicators. The resulting percentage of vulnerable people was converted to numbers of potential victims. Finally, the social risk was expressed by financial indicators in terms of the cost of the value of statistical life lost (Mrozek and Taylor in J Policy Anal Manag 21(2):253–270, 2002; Viscusi and Aldy in J Risk Uncertain 27(1):5–76, 2003). Social risk can be underestimated in comparison with economic risk because of a low “value of life” in Russia (no life insurance, neglecting of basic safety rules, etc.) (Guriev in Myths of economics, Alpina Business Books, Moscow, 2009).  相似文献   

Petrogenesis,U–Pb Age,and Lu–Hf Systematics of Rocks of the Garevka Complex (Northern Yenisei Ridge): Evidence of the Grenville Events at the Western Margin of the Siberian Craton     

Likhanov  I. I.  Reverdatto  V. V.  Kozlov  P. S.  Savko  K. A.  Krylov  A. A. 《Doklady Earth Sciences》2022,507(2):1071-1079

Doklady Earth Sciences - It is established for the first time that biotite plagiogneisses from the Garevka metamorphic complex of the North Yenisei Ridge have geochemical characteristics of C-type...  相似文献   

Earthquake effects along paths of VLF radio noise and impulsive signals as observed at Yakutsk     

V. A. Mullayarov  V. I. Kozlov  A. V. Amburskii 《Journal of Volcanology and Seismology》2007,1(4):274-282

An analysis of amplitude variations in the noise and storm-induced impulsive VLF electromagnetic signals recorded at Yakutsk along paths above earthquakes is reported. It is shown that amplitude characteristics of storm-induced VLF signals can usefully supplement signals of radio stations as used in the radio monitoring of regions above earthquakes. The effect on these signals due to earthquakes of magnitude greater than 5 is observed as an amplitude increase within the three days following an earthquake. The pre-seismic variations in the storm-induced signal amplitude which can be regarded as precursors are generally observed as increased amplitudes (within 10 days before the earthquake) with a subsequent minimum.  相似文献   

Geothermal and bathymetric surveys of Brouton Bay (Uratman Volcano,Simushir I., Kuril Islands)     

O. V. Veselov  D. N. Kozlov 《Journal of Volcanology and Seismology》2014,8(4):250-259

This paper presents results from a comprehensive analysis of geothermal and bathymetric surveys in the Brouton Bay on Simushir I. (Kuril Islands). High heat flow values through the bay bottom are typical of the present-day volcanoes at the Kuril island system. The results of the bathymetric survey were used to develop a digital map and a 3D model for the Bay basin and to detect an underwater volcanic dome. Comparison of geothermal and bathymetric data permitted delineation of the outer and inner ring faults that surround the atrio of Uratman Volcano. This evidence shows that the volcano is active at the present time.  相似文献   

Influence of meteorological and wave processes on the lower ionosphere during solar minimum conditions according to the data on midlatitude VLF-LF propagation     

A. A. Egoshin  V. M. Ermak  Yu. I. Zetzer  S. I. Kozlov  V. P. Kudryavtsev  A. N. Lyakhov  Yu. V. Poklad  E. N. Yakimenko 《Izvestiya Physics of the Solid Earth》2012,48(3):275-286

The statistical characteristics of the intensity of VLF-LF radio signals transmitted from the midlatitude radio stations and recorded by the receiver at the Mikhnevo geophysical observatory (54.94°N, 37.73°E; Institute of Geosphere Dynamics, Russian Academy of Sciences) in 2007–2010 are analyzed. The experiments revealed strong variations in the intensity of radio signals during the deep solar minimum conditions, when the medium does not experience impacts from above associated with solar and geomagnetic activity. We relate the observed variations to the disturbances from below, which are caused by the meteorological and wave processes occurring in the lower atmosphere.  相似文献   

Fragmentation of the “bag-breakup” type as a mechanism of the generation of sea spray at strong and hurricane winds     

Yu. I. Troitskaya  O. S. Ermakova  A. A. Kandaurov  D. S. Kozlov  D. A. Sergeev  S. S. Zilitinkevich 《Doklady Earth Sciences》2017,477(1):1330-1335

Experiments on generation mechanisms of sea water spray under hurricane wind were performed using shadow illumination high-speed video recording from several camera positions. Classification of fragmentation mechanism leading to generation of spray was conducted. Statistics of the events causing generation of spray was studied. A phenomenological model was developed based on the methods of statistical physics to describe the “bag-breakup” generation mechanism. The function of spray generation was conducted on this basis, which describes well the experimental data obtained under hurricane winds in the natural and laboratory conditions.  相似文献   

Satellite Atmospheric Sounder IRFS-2 1. Analysis of Outgoing Radiation Spectra Measurements     

Polyakov  A. V.  Timofeyev  Yu. M.  Virolainen  Ya. A.  Uspensky  A. B.  Zavelevich  F. S.  Golovin  Yu. M.  Kozlov  D. A.  Rublev  A. N.  Kukharsky  A. V. 《Izvestiya Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics》2017,53(9):1185-1191

Izvestiya, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics - The outgoing radiation spectra measured by the IRFS-2 spectrometer onboard Meteor-M no. 2 satellite have been analyzed. Some statistical parameters of...  相似文献   

Internal tide in the Kara Gates Strait     

E. G. Morozov  I. E. Kozlov  S. A. Shchuka  D. I. Frey 《Oceanology》2017,57(1):8-18

We observed strong internal tidal waves in the Kara Gates Strait. Internal tides are superimposed over a system of mean currents from the Barents to the Kara Sea. Field studies of internal tides in the Kara Gates were performed in 1997, 2007, and 2015. In 2015, we analyzed data from towed CTD measurements, numerical model calculations, and satellite images in the region. An internal tidal wave with a period of 12.4 h is generated due to the interaction between the currents of the barotropic tide and the bottom relief on the slopes of a ridge that crosses the strait from Novaya Zemlya to the continent. The depths of the ridge crest are 30–40 m. A constant current of relatively warm water flows from the Barents to the Kara Sea. An internal wave propagates in both directions from the ridge. In the Barents Sea, internal waves are intensified by the current from the Barents to the Kara Sea. Internal bores followed by a packet of short-period internal waves are found in both directions from the strait. Satellite images show that short-period internal waves are generated after the internal bore. A hydraulic jump was found on the eastern side of the strait. Numerical modeling agrees with the experimental results.  相似文献   

Stationary arrays of vortical patches near linear boundaries     

V. F. Kozlov  A. I. Shavlyugin 《Physical Oceanography》1992,3(4):241-250

This paper addresses the problem of plane stationary currents generated in an ideal incompressible fluid by an infinite array of identical areas of constant vorticity located near a linear boundary. Eddy shapes are constructed analytically and numerically for diverse vortical areas and ranges off the boundary. The limits of applicability of the asymptotic solution derived are given. The results are matched within situ observations.Translated by V. Puchkin.  相似文献