Beta-�� distribution and its application to hydrologic events     

Md. Sharwar Murshed  Sangil Kim  Jeong-Soo Park 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2011,25(7):897-911

The beta-κ distribution is a distinct case of the generalized beta distribution of the second kind. In previous studies, beta-p and beta-κ distributions have played important roles in representing extreme events, and thus, the present paper uses the beta-κ distribution. Further, this paper uses the method of moments and the method of L-moments to estimate the parameters from the beta-κ distribution, and to demonstrate the performance of the proposed model, the paper presents a simulation study using three estimation methods (including the maximum likelihood estimation method) and beta-κ and non beta-κ samples. In addition, this paper evaluates the performance of the beta-κ distribution by employing two widely used extreme value distributions (i.e., the GEV and Gumbel distributions) and two sets of actual data on extreme events.  相似文献   

A review on vegetation models and applicability to climate simulations at regional scale   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Boksoon Myoung  Yong-Sang Choi  Seon Ki Park 《Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences》2011,47(5):463-475

The lack of accurate representations of biospheric components and their biophysical and biogeochemical processes is a great source of uncertainty in current climate models. The interactions between terrestrial ecosystems and the climate include exchanges not only of energy, water and momentum, but also of carbon and nitrogen. Reliable simulations of these interactions are crucial for predicting the potential impacts of future climate change and anthropogenic intervention on terrestrial ecosystems. In this paper, two biogeographical (Neilson’s rule-based model and BIOME), two biogeochemical (BIOME-BGC and PnET-BGC), and three dynamic global vegetation models (Hybrid, LPJ, and MC1) were reviewed and compared in terms of their biophysical and physiological processes. The advantages and limitations of the models were also addressed. Lastly, the applications of the dynamic global vegetation models to regional climate simulations have been discussed.  相似文献   

Modeling a major source of economic resilience to disasters: recapturing lost production     

JiYoung Park  Joongkoo Cho  Adam Rose 《Natural Hazards》2011,58(1):163-182

Terrorist attacks and natural disasters have potentially severe economic consequences in terms of property damage and business interruption. However, experience from the September 11 World Trade Center attack and other disasters indicates that the economy has a great deal of resilience. This refers to the ability to dampen the maximum potential economic output (business interruption) loss. One of the most prominent sources of resilience is the ability of businesses to reschedule, or recapture, lost production after the event. Although there have been applications of a fixed parameter recapture factor for each of several aggregated sectors of the economy, there has been little formal analysis of this resilience action. This study offers a theoretic framework for analyzing production rescheduling. It distinguishes the major conditions influencing two aspects that have previously been neglected: (1) the maximum time span over which the rescheduling can take place and (2) the likely decline of the maximum recapture as the business interruption increases. We divide the relevant time path into two periods after recovery. One is a function of a recaptured output path after recovery to the status of normal production. The other is a function for the maximum recaptured production, based on the recaptured output path. The recaptured output path function is assumed to follow a normal distribution function, and hence, total recaptured output follows the cumulative normal distribution function over time after productive capacity is restored. Also, we develop a new cumulative normal distribution function for interruption time duration, which is symmetric with respect to the output axis. This recapture function has unknown parameters. Empirical data on the recaptured amounts following an actual disaster can be used to estimate the parameters of this function using simulation methods.  相似文献   

Laboratory tests of vortex-induced vibrations of a long flexible riser pipe subjected to uniform flow     

Ji-ning Song  Lin Lu  Bin Teng  Han-il Park  Guo-qiang Tang  Hao Wu 《Ocean Engineering》2011,38(11-12):1308-1322

Laboratory tests have been conducted on vortex-induced vibration (VIV) of a long flexible riser towed horizontally in a wave basin. The riser model has an external diameter of 16 mm and a total length of 28.0 m giving an aspect ratio of about 1750. Reynolds numbers ranged from about 3000 to 10,000. Fiber optic grating strain gages are adopted to measure the dynamic response in both cross-flow and in-line directions. The cross-flow vibrations were observed to vibrate at modes up to 6 and the in-line reached up to 12. The fundamental response frequencies can be predicted by a Strouhal number of about 0.18. Multi-mode responses and the asymmetry of the bare pipe response in uniform flow were observed and analyzed. The experimental results confirmed that the riser pipe vibrated multi-modally despite it being subject to a uniform current profile and all of the excited modes vibrated at the Strouhal frequency. The asymmetrical distribution of displacement mainly resulted from the modal composition. Higher harmonics of the VIV response such as the third, fourth and fifth harmonics frequencies were found to be steady over the entire duration of the test even if they varied along the length of the riser pipe.  相似文献   

Modeling and control of a 75 kW class variable liquid-column oscillator for highly efficient wave energy converter     

Byung-Hak Cho  Dong-Soon Yang  Shin-Yeol Park  Kyung-Shik Choi  Do-Hwan Lee  Seung-Hyun Byun  Hoon Jung 《Ocean Engineering》2011,38(2-3):436-443

The modeling and control of a variable liquid-column oscillator having a liquid filled U-tube with air chambers at its vertical columns are presented. As an ocean wave energy extracting device, the structure of the variable liquid-column oscillator (VLCO) is analogous to that of the tuned liquid-column damper used to suppress oscillatory motion in large structures like tall buildings and cargo ships. However, owing to an air spring effect caused by the dynamic pressure of air chambers, the amplitude of response of the VLCO becomes significantly amplified for a desired wave period. The governing equations for the motion of VLCO structure under wave excitation and the motion of liquid with an air spring effect caused by an air–liquid interaction are described by a series of nonlinear differential equations. A set of control parameters for extracting maximum power from various wave conditions is determined for the efficient operation of the VLCO. It is found that the effect of the air spring has an important role to play in making the oscillation of the VLCO match with the ocean wave. In this way, the VLCO provides the most effective mode for extracting energy from the ocean wave.  相似文献   

Dynamic factor analysis considering elastic boom effects in heavy lifting operations     

Kwang-Phil Park  Ju-Hwan Cha  Kyu-Yeul Lee 《Ocean Engineering》2011,38(10):1100-1113

The dynamic factor is the ratio of the maximum dynamic load to the static load acting on the wire ropes between the boom of a floating crane and a cargo. In this paper, the dynamic factor is analyzed based on dynamic simulations of a floating crane and a cargo, considering an elastic boom. For the simulation, we designed a multibody system that consists of a floating crane barge, an elastic boom, and a cargo connected to the boom through wire ropes. The dynamic equations of motion of the system are based on flexible multibody system dynamics. Six-degree-of-freedom motions are considered for the floating crane and for the cargo, and three-dimensional deformations for the elastic boom. The hydrostatic force, the hydrodynamic force, the gravitational force, and the wire rope forces are considered as external forces. The dynamic factor is obtained by numerically solving the equation. The effects of the elastic boom on heavy cargo lifting are discussed by comparing the simulation results of an elastic boom and a rigid boom.  相似文献   

Environmentally associated spatial changes of a macrozoobenthic community in the Saemangeum tidal flat,Korea     

Jongseong Ryu  Jong Seong Khim  Jin-Woo Choi  Hyun Chool Shin  Soonmo An  Jinsoon Park  Daeseok Kang  Chang-Hee Lee  Chul-Hwan Koh 《Journal of Sea Research》2011,65(4):390-400

Estuarine tidal flats are both ecologically and economically important, hence developing methods to reliably measure ecosystem health is essential. Because benthic fauna play a central role in the food web of tidal flats, in this study we set out to quantitatively describe the intertidal zonation of macro-invertebrates and their associations with specific environmental parameters along three transects in the Saemangeum tidal flat, Korea. The abundance and biomass of intertidal fauna with respect to five environmental parameters (i.e., shore level, mud content, coarse sand content, water content, and organic content) were measured, to identify environmental factors that influence macrofaunal distribution in intertidal soft bottom habitats. A total of 75 species were identified, with dominant species showing distinct zones of distribution along all transects. The number of species recorded in each transect was found to be dependent on sediment characteristics and salinity. Cluster analysis classified the entire study area into three faunal assemblages (i.e., location groups), which were delineated by characteristic species, including (A) ‘Periserrula–Macrophthalmus’, (B) ‘Umbonium–Meretrix’, and (C) ‘Prionospio–Potamocorbula’. Four environmental variables (i.e., shore level, water content, mud content, and organic content) appeared to determine factors that distinguished the three faunal assemblages, based on the discriminant analysis. The faunal assemblage types of the sampled locations were accurately predicted from environmental variables in two discriminant functions, with a prediction accuracy of 98%. It should be noted that the zonation of benthos in the lower section (C) of Sandong had been affected by the construction of a nearby dike, while this parameter had remained essentially unchanged at the other two location groups (A–B). Overall, the zonation of benthos from the Saemangeum tidal flat was explained adequately by the measured environmental variables, implying that faunal assemblages are closely associated with certain combinations of abiotic factors. The identification of such reliable associations may facilitate the development of statistical models to predict faunal distributions based on environmental variables at both local and regional scales. The entire study area was embanked in 2006 (one year after this study), and an integrated plan was set into force to develop claimed land into industrial, residential and agricultural districts, which also included a partial restoration program of the tidal flats located near to the study area.  相似文献   

History matching and uncertainty quantification of facies models with multiple geological interpretations   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Hyucksoo Park  Céline Scheidt  Darryl Fenwick  Alexandre Boucher  Jef Caers 《Computational Geosciences》2013,17(4):609-621

Uncertainty quantification is currently one of the leading challenges in the geosciences, in particular in reservoir modeling. A wealth of subsurface data as well as expert knowledge are available to quantify uncertainty and state predictions on reservoir performance or reserves. The geosciences component within this larger modeling framework is partially an interpretive science. Geologists and geophysicists interpret data to postulate on the nature of the depositional environment, for example on the type of fracture system, the nature of faulting, and the type of rock physics model. Often, several alternative scenarios or interpretations are offered, including some associated belief quantified with probabilities. In the context of facies modeling, this could result in various interpretations of facies architecture, associations, geometries, and the way they are distributed in space. A quantitative approach to specify this uncertainty is to provide a set of alternative 3D training images from which several geostatistical models can be generated. In this paper, we consider quantifying uncertainty on facies models in the early development stage of a reservoir when there is still considerable uncertainty on the nature of the spatial distribution of the facies. At this stage, production data are available to further constrain uncertainty. We develop a workflow that consists of two steps: (1) determining which training images are no longer consistent with production data and should be rejected and (2) to history match with a given fixed training image. We illustrate our ideas and methodology on a test case derived from a real field case of predicting flow in a newly planned well in a turbidite reservoir off the African West coast.  相似文献   

Landslide susceptibility mapping using frequency ratio, analytic hierarchy process, logistic regression, and artificial neural network methods at the Inje area, Korea   总被引：13，自引：9，他引：4  

Soyoung Park  Chuluong Choi  Byungwoo Kim  Jinsoo Kim 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2013,68(5):1443-1464

Every year, the Republic of Korea experiences numerous landslides, resulting in property damage and casualties. This study compared the abilities of frequency ratio (FR), analytic hierarchy process (AHP), logistic regression (LR), and artificial neural network (ANN) models to produce landslide susceptibility index (LSI) maps for use in predicting possible landslide occurrence and limiting damage. The areas under the relative operating characteristic (ROC) curves for the FR, AHP, LR, and ANN LSI maps were 0.794, 0.789, 0.794, and 0.806, respectively. Thus, the LSI maps developed by all the models had similar accuracy. A cross-tabulation analysis of landslide occurrence against non-occurrence areas showed generally similar overall accuracies of 65.27, 64.35, 65.51, and 68.47 % for the FR, AHP, LR, and ANN models, respectively. A correlation analysis between the models demonstrated that the LR and ANN models had the highest correlation (0.829), whereas the FR and AHP models had the lowest correlation (0.619).  相似文献   

Immobilization of As and Pb in contaminated sediments using waste resources     

Deok Hyun Moon  Da-Yeon Oh  Mahmoud Wazne  Jeong-Hun Park 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2013,69(8):2721-2729

As and Pb-contaminated sediment obtained from the Nakdong Lake and Yeongsan River in the Republic of Korea was stabilized using a combination of calcined oyster shell (COS), waste cow bone (WCB) and coal mine drainage sludge (CMDS). The effectiveness of the stabilization treatment was evaluated using the Korean Standard Test (KST). The KST tests were performed using 1 N HCl extraction fluid for As and 0.1 N HCl extraction fluid for Pb. Scanning electron microscopy–energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (SEM–EDX) analyses were performed to investigate the mechanism responsible for As and Pb immobilization upon treatment. The treatment results showed that effective stabilization of As and Pb-contaminated sediment was obtained. Specifically, 10 wt% COS–5 wt% CMDS was the best treatment for As immobilization and 5 wt% COS–5 wt% WCB was the best treatment for Pb immobilization. The COS–WCB treatment outperformed the COS–CMDS treatment in immobilizing Pb in the contaminated sediment. SEM–EDX results indicated that Pb immobilization was strongly associated with Ca, Si, Al and P while As immobilization was strongly associated with Fe and O. Therefore, utilization of COS, WCB and CMDS is beneficial for the stabilization of contaminated sediment.  相似文献