基于CMIP5模式的中国气候变化敏感性预估与分析   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

梁玉莲  韩明臣  延晓冬  赖雨薇 《气象科学》2016,36(2):158-164

以CMIP5提供的26个全球气候系统模式的温度和降水数据为基础,采用区域气候变化指数(Regional Climate Change Index,RCCI)分析中国的不同区域对21世纪气候变化响应的敏感性。结果表明,三种排放情景(RCP 2.6、RCP 4.5、RCP 8.5)下,21世纪全期,气候变化最敏感的区域分布在西藏地区,其次为我国西北地区以及东北地区,气候变化敏感性最低的区域分布在我国内蒙古中东部、华北地区以及长江中下游一带,且高排放情景对应更高的气候变化敏感性。对RCCI指数贡献因子分析结果表明,对中国气候变化敏感性贡献的大小依次为Δσ_TΔσ_pΔRRWAF。冬夏两季温度变化的大值区与RCCI指数的大致区分布一致,RCCI大小的分布很大程度上由温度变化的敏感性决定。而夏季降水变化的大值区主要出现在西藏地区、华南地区和东北地区,冬季降水变化的大值区则主要出现在黄河以南长江以北的中原地区以及东北地区。  相似文献   

Geoscience Frontiers 2017 Annual Convention     

Fei Gao  Lily Wang  Yong-Qiang Yang 《地学前缘(英文版)》2018,9(2):595-597

正The 2017 Geoscience Frontiers Annual Convention was held in Beijing,China during October 19-21,2017 hosted by China University of Geosciences,Beijing(Fig.1).This convention assembled earth scientists from seven countries,including Australia(Dr.Christopher Spencer and Dr.Stijn Glorie),Korea(Dr.S.Kwon),India(Dr.Shaji Erath),Japan(Dr.Toshiaki Tsunogae and Dr.Masaki Yoshida),Russia(Dr.Inna Safonova),UK(Dr.Nick Roberts),China,and also  相似文献   

Extreme deformation characteristics and countermeasures for a tunnel in difficult grounds in southern Shaanxi,China     

Jinxing Lai  Xiuling Wang  Junling Qiu  Jianxun Chen  Zhinan Hu  Hao Wang 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2018,77(19):706

The Qingling–Bashan (QB) mountain region in southern Shaanxi mainly consists of strongly compressive zones from east to west, with tight folds and compressive fractures. There is a wide distribution of soft rocks of various types, such as phyllite and slate, accompanied by complex geological structures. Ironically, tunnel construction in these difficult grounds with complicated geological conditions embraces a high risk of extreme deformation due to various unpredictable reasons, which can frequently cause collapse and result in budget overruns during the construction period. Therefore, it is crucial to conduct effective countermeasures to eliminate or avoid such adverse impacts. This paper provides a case study on the “Yingfeng tunnel” (a tunnel constructed in soft rock consisting of a slate ground) based on a geological survey, indoor experiments and in situ monitoring. A successive rock mass deformation resulted in the tunnel lining seriously intruding into construction clearance and some other sections, even collapsing during the construction. The maximum displacement amount was 62.5 cm, while the maximum deformation speed reached as high as 34.18 mm/day. Additionally, to evaluate the construction impacts of tunnelling-induced geo-hazards, an investigation on extreme deformation was conducted. Considering the time-dependent features of the rock mass deformation, the constraint-convergence method was used to put forward applicable countermeasures in this paper. Finally, from the feedbacks of monitoring results, extreme deformation of the Yingfeng tunnel was effectively controlled.  相似文献   

School vulnerability to disaster: examination of school closure,demographic, and exposure factors in Hurricane Ike’s wind swath     

A.-M. Esnard  B. S. Lai  C. Wyczalkowski  N. Malmin  H. J. Shah 《Natural Hazards》2018,90(2):513-535

Damage and destruction to schools from climate-related disasters can have significant and lasting impacts on curriculum and educational programs, educational attainment, and future income-earning potential of affected students. As such, assessing the potential impact of hazards is crucial to the ability of individuals, households, and communities to respond to natural disasters, extreme events, and economic crises. Yet, few studies have focused on assessing the vulnerability of schools in coastal regions of the USA. Using Hurricane Ike’s tropical storm wind swath in the State of Texas as our study area, we: (1) assessed the spatial distribution patterns of school closures and (2) tested the relationship between school closure and vulnerability factors (namely physical exposure and school demographics) using zero-inflated negative binomial regression models. The regression results show that higher probabilities of hurricane strikes, more urbanized school districts, and school districts located in coastal counties on the right side of Ike’s path have significant positive associations with an increase in the number of school closure days. Socioeconomic characteristics were not significantly associated with the number of days closed, with the exception of proportion of Hispanic youth in schools, a result which is not supported by the social vulnerability literature. At a practical level, understanding how hurricanes may adversely impact schools is important for developing appropriate preparedness, mitigation, recovery, and adaptation strategies. For example, school districts on the right side of the hurricane track can plan in advance for potential damage and destruction. The ability of a community to respond to future natural disasters, extreme events, and economic crises depends in part on mitigating these adverse effects.  相似文献   

Socioeconomic vulnerability and electric power restoration timelines in Florida: the case of Hurricane Irma     

Diana Mitsova  Ann-Margaret Esnard  Alka Sapat  Betty S. Lai 《Natural Hazards》2018,94(2):689-709

Large-scale damage to the power infrastructure from hurricanes and high-wind events can have devastating ripple effects on infrastructure, the broader economy, households, communities, and regions. Using Hurricane Irma’s impact on Florida as a case study, we examined: (1) differences in electric power outages and restoration rates between urban and rural counties; (2) the duration of electric power outages in counties exposed to tropical storm force winds versus hurricane Category 1 force winds; and (3) the relationship between the duration of power outage and socioeconomic vulnerability. We used power outage data for the period September 9, 2017–September 29, 2017. At the peak of the power outages following Hurricane Irma, over 36% of all accounts in Florida were without electricity. We found that the rural counties, predominantly served by rural electric cooperatives and municipally owned utilities, experienced longer power outages and much slower and uneven restoration times. Results of three spatial lag models show that large percentages of customers served by rural electric cooperatives and municipally owned utilities were a strong predictor of the duration of extended power outages. There was also a strong positive association across all three models between power outage duration and urban/rural county designation. Finally, there is positive spatial dependence between power outages and several social vulnerability indicators. Three socioeconomic variables found to be statistically significant highlight three different aspects of vulnerability to power outages: minority groups, population with sensory, physical and mental disability, and economic vulnerability expressed as unemployment rate. The findings from our study have broader planning and policy relevance beyond our case study area, and highlight the need for additional research to deepen our understanding of how power restoration after hurricanes contributes to and is impacted by the socioeconomic vulnerabilities of communities.  相似文献   

2021年6-9月广西异常高温成因分析     

赖晟  陈思蓉  陆甲  陆虹 《气象研究与应用》2021,42(4):111-117

2021年6-9月广西经历了1951年以来最高的月平均气温,大范围高温天气频发.利用1961-2021年广西国家地面气象观测站日平均气温和日最高气温观测资料、1991-2021年ERA5再分析资料和西太平洋副热带高压指数资料,对此次广西异常高温的特征和成因进行了研究分析.结果 表明,气候变暖是导致此次高温事件的重要气候背景,西太平洋副热带高压异常偏强位置偏西偏北、中纬度西风带扰动影响偏北以及热带气旋影响偏弱是造成广西气温异常偏高的主要原因.  相似文献   

基于航空放射性的铀成矿预测——以黑龙江省中部为例     

汪来  祁程  张伟  刘波  冯春园  蔡文军 《地质论评》2021,67(Z1):67z1263-67z1264

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Study on failure mechanism of a plain irrigation reservoir soil bank slope under wind wave erosion     

Qin  Zipeng  Lai  Yuanming  Tian  Yan 《Natural Hazards》2021,109(1):567-592

Natural Hazards - The wind wave erosion is one of the main factors of the soil bank slope retreat in plain irrigation reservoirs, which plays an important role in the bank profile evolution and...  相似文献   

由计算机产生的等距离区域分界线     

赖宝珍  费立凡 《武汉大学学报(信息科学版)》1988,(3)

本文介绍一种最近由作者在美国研制的,由计算机产生等距离区域分界线的程序及其数据结构,同时给出初步的试验结果。  相似文献   

麻粒岩p—T—t轨迹的研究现状     

赖兴运 《地质科技情报》1993,12(4):22-26

综述了近年来麻粒岩中p-T-t轨迹的研究现状。内容涉及到麻粒岩相变质作用的温压条件及时间跨度,同时指出:结合岩石中的矿物组合、后成合晶及反应结构,利用矿物温压计是目前确定p-T-t轨迹的主要手段。  相似文献