Comparing predictive capability of statistical and deterministic methods for landslide susceptibility mapping: a case study in the northern Apennines (Reggio Emilia Province, Italy)   总被引：5，自引：3，他引：2  

Federico Cervi  Matteo Berti  Lisa Borgatti  Francesco Ronchetti  Federica Manenti  Alessandro Corsini 《Landslides》2010,7(4):433-444

Statistical and deterministic methods are widely used in geographic information system based landslide susceptibility mapping. This paper compares the predictive capability of three different models, namely the Weight of Evidence, the Fuzzy Logic and SHALSTAB, for producing shallow earth slide susceptibility maps, to be included as informative layers in land use planning at a local level. The test site is an area of about 450 km² in the northern Apennines of Italy where, in April 2004, rainfall combined with snowmelt triggered hundreds of shallow earth slides that damaged roads and other infrastructure. An inventory of the landslides triggered by the event was obtained from interpretation of aerial photos dating back to May 2004. The pre-existence of mapped landslides was then checked using earlier aerial photo coverage. All the predictive models were run on the same set of geo-environmental causal factors: soil type, soil thickness, land cover, possibility of deep drainage through the bedrock, slope angle, and upslope contributing area. Model performance was assessed using a threshold-independent approach (the ROC plot). Results show that global accuracy is as high as 0.77 for both statistical models, while it is only 0.56 for SHALSTAB. Besides the limited quality of input data over large areas, the relatively poorer performance of the deterministic model maybe also due to the simplified assumptions behind the hydrological component (steady-state slope parallel flow), which can be considered unsuitable for describing the hydrologic behavior of clay slopes, that are widespread in the study area.  相似文献   

An assessment of climate change impacts and adaptation for the Torres Strait Islands, Australia     

Donna Green  Lisa Alexander  Kathy Mclnnes  John Church  Neville Nicholls  Neil White 《Climatic change》2010,102(3-4):405-433

Adaptive practices are taking place in a range of sectors and regions in Australia in response to existing climate impacts, and in anticipation of future unavoidable impacts. For a rich economy such as Australia’s, the majority of human systems have considerable adaptive capacity. However, the impacts on human systems at the intra-nation level are not homogenous due to their differing levels of exposure, sensitivity and capacity to adapt to climate change. Despite past resilience to changing climates, many Indigenous communities located in remote areas are currently identified as highly vulnerable to climate impacts due to their high level of exposure and sensitivity, but low capacity to adapt. In particular, communities located on low-lying islands have particular vulnerability to sea level rise and increasingly intense storm surges caused by more extreme weather. Several Torres Strait Island community leaders have been increasingly concerned about these issues, and the ongoing risks to these communities’ health and well-being posed by direct and indirect climate impacts. A government agency is beginning to develop short-term and long-term adaptation plans for the region. This work, however, is being developed without adequate scientific assessment of likely ‘climate changed futures.’ This is because the role that anthropogenic climate change has played, or will play, on extreme weather events for this region is not currently clear. This paper draws together regional climate data to enable a more accurate assessment of the islands’ exposure to climate impacts. Understanding the level of exposure and uncertainty around specific impacts is vital to gauge the nature of these islands’ vulnerability, in so doing, to inform decisions about how best to develop anticipatory adaptation strategies over various time horizons, and to address islanders’ concerns about the likely resilience and viability of their communities in the longer term.  相似文献   

A century of climate and ecosystem change in Western Montana: what do temperature trends portend?     

Gregory T. Pederson  Lisa J. Graumlich  Daniel B. Fagre  Todd Kipfer  Clint C. Muhlfeld 《Climatic change》2010,98(1-2):133-154

The physical science linking human-induced increases in greenhouse gasses to the warming of the global climate system is well established, but the implications of this warming for ecosystem processes and services at regional scales is still poorly understood. Thus, the objectives of this work were to: (1) describe rates of change in temperature averages and extremes for western Montana, a region containing sensitive resources and ecosystems, (2) investigate associations between Montana temperature change to hemispheric and global temperature change, (3) provide climate analysis tools for land and resource managers responsible for researching and maintaining renewable resources, habitat, and threatened/endangered species and (4) integrate our findings into a more general assessment of climate impacts on ecosystem processes and services over the past century. Over 100 years of daily and monthly temperature data collected in western Montana, USA are analyzed for long-term changes in seasonal averages and daily extremes. In particular, variability and trends in temperature above or below ecologically and socially meaningful thresholds within this region (e.g., ?17.8°C (0°F), 0°C (32°F), and 32.2°C (90°F)) are assessed. The daily temperature time series reveal extremely cold days (≤??17.8°C) terminate on average 20 days earlier and decline in number, whereas extremely hot days (≥32°C) show a three-fold increase in number and a 24-day increase in seasonal window during which they occur. Results show that regionally important thresholds have been exceeded, the most recent of which include the timing and number of the 0°C freeze/thaw temperatures during spring and fall. Finally, we close with a discussion on the implications for Montana’s ecosystems. Special attention is given to critical processes that respond non-linearly as temperatures exceed critical thresholds, and have positive feedbacks that amplify the changes.  相似文献   

Ocean oxygen minima expansions and their biological impacts     

Lothar Stramma  Sunke Schmidtko  Lisa A. Levin  Gregory C. Johnson 《Deep Sea Research Part I: Oceanographic Research Papers》2010,57(4):587-595

Climate models with biogeochemical components predict declines in oceanic dissolved oxygen with global warming. In coastal regimes oxygen deficits represent acute ecosystem perturbations. Here, we estimate dissolved oxygen differences across the global tropical and subtropical oceans within the oxygen minimum zone (200–700-dbar depth) between 1960–1974 (an early period with reliable data) and 1990–2008 (a recent period capturing ocean response to planetary warming). In most regions of the tropical Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian Oceans the oxygen content in the 200–700-dbar layer has declined. Furthermore, at 200 dbar, the area with O₂ <70 μmol kg^?1, where some large mobile macro-organisms are unable to abide, has increased by 4.5 million km². The tropical low oxygen zones have expanded horizontally and vertically. Subsurface oxygen has decreased adjacent to most continental shelves. However, oxygen has increased in some regions in the subtropical gyres at the depths analyzed. According to literature discussed below, fishing pressure is strong in the open ocean, which may make it difficult to isolate the impact of declining oxygen on fisheries. At shallower depths we predict habitat compression will occur for hypoxia-intolerant taxa, with eventual loss of biodiversity. Should past trends in observed oxygen differences continue into the future, shifts in animal distributions and changes in ecosystem structure could accelerate.  相似文献   

Effects of hypoxic disturbances on an estuarine nekton assemblage across multiple scales     

Lisa?A.?EbyEmail author  Larry?B.?Crowder 《Estuaries and Coasts》2004,27(2):342-351

Disturbances influence ecological communities over a wide range of scales. We investigated the effects of localized hypoxic disturbances on an estuarine fish assemblage at several spatial (m² and 10s km²) and temporal (days, seasons, years) scales in a multivariate framework (temperature, salinity, depth, dissolved oxygen). We examined whether seasons, years) scales in a multivariate framework (temperature, salinity, depth, dissolved oxygen). We examined whether there were consistent changes in fish and crustacean estuarine assemblage characteristics along environmental gradients and whether these relationships were altered by hypoxic disturbances. We also investigated at what scale dissolved oxygen concentration may be influencing the structure of motile estuarine assemblages and whether the size of the hypoxic zone altered its effects on the estuarine assemblage. Hypoxic disturbances altered fish and crustacean assemblages along the depth gradients that were present during well-oxygenated periods. Species diversity, richness, and catch rates were lower in hypoxic patches than in oxygenated areas. Dissolved oxygen concentration remained an important explanatory variable for patch-level assemblage dissimilarity, species richness, and diversity when data were aggregated across seasons. When we examined the data at a larger scale, by aggregating information across the study area, we did not detect influences of hypoxia on assemblage structure. Fish moved out of local hypoxic zones, but remained within the estuary even in years with extensive hypoxia. There was no effect of size of the hypoxic distrubance on whether organisms responded to hypoxia or on diversity or richness of the study site. These results suggest that these local disturbances play an important role in structuring motile species assemblages at a patch-level within an estuary, but regional factors such as recruitment and migration are important in influencing species assemblages for the entire estuary over months and years.  相似文献   

Assimilation of Paleoseismic Data for Earthquake Simulation     

Lisa B. Grant  Miryha M. Gould 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2004,161(11-12):2295-2306

— Simulation of the complete earthquake generation process requires assimilation of observational data on long-term behavior of faults over multiple rupture cycles. Paleoseismology, the study of pre-instrumental earthquakes from geological field investigations, provides the only observations of long-term fault behavior. Paleoseismic data present challenges for assimilation into models because data sets are small, sparse, analog, and contain qualitative uncertainties. Observations can be categorized as primary measurements from field data, or non-primary extrapolations or interpretations of primary data. Assimilation of non-primary data could yield biased simulation results. We present a primary data set for the San Andreas and Imperial faults for comparison with non-primary data in existing databases, and propose standard formats and structure for paleoseismic data assimilation into numerical simulation models .  相似文献   

Focal mechanism study of north Potwar dformed zone, Pakistan     

Mona Lisa  Shahid A Khan  Azam A Khwaja 《地震学报(英文版)》2004,17(3):255-261

Introduction Northern Pakistan is one of the seismically active regions in the world. Numerous studies have been undertaken to highlight and understand the ongoing collisional process of the Indo-Pakistan plate with the Kohistan island arc. Besides the N-S compression, as a result of the con-vergence, transpressional features have also been recognized. However, in the studied area pres-ence of evaporites (Eocambrian) has led to the development of duplex type models with the basal decollemen…  相似文献   

Speciation and weathering of selenium in upper cretaceous chalk and shale from South Dakota and Wyoming, USA   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Thomas R. Kulp  Lisa M. Pratt 《Geochimica et cosmochimica acta》2004,68(18):3687-3701

In geologic materials, petroleum, and the environment, selenium occurs in various oxidation states (VI, IV, 0, -II), mineralized forms, and organo-Se complexes. Each of these forms is characterized by specific chemical and biochemical properties that control the element’s solubility, toxicity, and environmental behavior. The organic rich chalks and shales of the Upper Cretaceous Niobrara Formation and the Pierre Shale in South Dakota and Wyoming are bentoniferous stratigraphic intervals characterized by anomalously high concentrations of naturally occurring Se. Numerous environmental problems have been associated with Se derived from these geological units, including the development of seleniferous soils and vegetation that are toxic to livestock and the contamination of drinking water supplies by Se mobilized in groundwater.This study describes a sequential extraction protocol followed by speciation treatments and quantitative analysis by Hydride Generation-Atomic Absorption Spectroscopy. This protocol was utilized to investigate the geochemical forms and the oxidation states in which Se occurs in these geologic units. Organic Se and di-selenide minerals are the predominant forms of Se present in the chalks, shales, and bentonites, but distinctive variations in these forms were observed between different sample types. Chalks contain significantly greater proportions of Se in the form of di-selenide minerals (including Se associated with pyrite) than the shales where base-soluble, humic, organo-Se complexes are more prevalent. A comparison between unweathered samples collected from lithologic drill cores and weathered samples collected from outcrop suggest that the humic, organic-Se compounds in shale are formed during oxidative weathering and that Se oxidized by weathering is more likely to be retained by shale than by chalk. Selenium enrichment in bentonites is inferred to result from secondary processes including the adsorption of Se mobilized by groundwater from surrounding organic rich sediments to clay mineral and iron hydroxide surfaces, as well as microbial reduction of Se within the bentonitic intervals. Distinct differences are inferred for the biogeochemical pathways that affected sedimentary Se sequestration during periods of chalk accumulation compared to shale deposition in the Cretaceous seaway. Mineralogy of sediment and the nature of the organic matter associated with each of these rock types have important implications for the environmental chemistry and release of Se to the environment during weathering.  相似文献   

Borehole image analysis of the Nankai Accretionary Wedge, ODP Leg 196: Structural and stress studies   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Masanori Ienaga  Lisa C. McNeill  Hitoshi Mikada  Saneatsu Saito  David Goldberg  J. Casey Moore 《Tectonophysics》2006,426(1-2):207

Electrical images recorded with Resistivity-At-Bit (RAB) from two sites drilled during Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Leg 196 were analyzed to study the effects of subduction at the Nankai margin. For the first time in the history of scientific deep-sea drilling in ODP, in situ complete borehole images of the décollement zone were obtained. Analyses of all drilling-induced fracture data indicated that the maximum horizontal compressive stress (S_Hmax) axes have an azimuth of 303°, and analyses of breakout data from RAB images indicated an azimuth of 310°. These azimuths approximate the convergence direction of the Philippine Sea plate towards the Eurasian plate. The frontal thrust at Site 808 was encountered at about 389 mbsf. Density, porosity, resistivity, and gamma ray data change across the frontal thrust. The décollement zone at the deformation front was identified between 937 and 965 mbsf. The base of the décollement is sharply defined as the maximum extent of conductive fracturing and is marked by abrupt changes in physical properties [Mikada, H., Becker, K., Moore, J.C., Klaus, A., Austin, G.L., Bangs, N.L., Bourlange, S., Broilliard, J., Brückmann, W., Corn, E.R., Davis, E.E., Flemings, P.B., Goldberg, D.B., Gulick, S.S., Hansen, M.B., Hayward, N., Hills, D.J., Hunze, S., Ienaga, M., Ishiguro, H., Kinoshita, M., Macdonald, R.D., McNeill, L., Obana, S., Hong, O.S., Peacock, S., Pettigrew, T.L., Saito, S., Sawa, T., Thaiprasert, N., Tobin, H.J., Tsurumi, H., 2002. Proc. ODP, Initial Rep., 196, College Station, TX, (Ocean Drilling Program)]. The upper boundary of the décollement is marked by several sets of conductive fractures and by high variability in physical properties. The décollement zone is characterized by intense brittle fracturing. These fractures are considered to be the consequence of cyclic stresses and high fluid pressures in this zone. We analyzed fracture dips and their orientations at both sites and found that they are all consistent with a unique stress field model surrounding the two sites.  相似文献   

Obtaining Representative Ground Water Samples in a Fractured and Karstic Formation   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

John McCarthy  Lisa Shevenell 《Ground water》1998,36(2):251-260

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