Defining the acceptable level of risk for civil protection purposes: a behavioral perspective on the decision process     

Daniela Di Bucci  Lucia Savadori 《Natural Hazards》2018,90(1):293-324

This work analyzes how acceptable risk levels are determined in political decisions and related policies in the field of civil protection, i.e., regarding disaster risks and their reduction at the national and supranational level. We examined why establishing the acceptable level of risk is a political decision, and why this decision is not an easy task. Some behavioral elements which can de facto impede such a decision were recognized. Among these, the anomalies inherent in intertemporal choices, availability heuristic and mental accounting play a primary role, because they interfere with preferences for selfish versus others’ interests and with the evaluation of individual versus community gains and losses. Due to these processes, the political decision-maker, unless she is a statesperson, will easily prefer not to decide. Political decision-making, however, could be induced by a change of mind in the voters’ community. This reorientation of the society’s values and interests can be stimulated taking advance from research on social norms, which underlines the role played by some people that drive innovation in a community, e.g., the trendsetters. The scientific, technical and professional communities have the knowledge needed, are aware of the work to be done on the disaster risk reduction and can establish a direct relationship with single trendsetters and statespersons to promote decision-making on disaster risk reduction. Within this relationship, they can build trust, give advice and participate in in-depth discussions. In this interaction and collaboration, behavioral sciences can provide a valuable support for a better reciprocal understanding.  相似文献   

Observed IRIS Profiles of the h and k Doublet of Mg ii and Comparison with Profiles from Quiescent Prominence NLTE Models     

Jean-Claude Vial  Gabriel Pelouze  Petr Heinzel  Lucia Kleint  Ulrich Anzer 《Solar physics》2016,291(1):67-87

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Deposition temperature of the AD 472 Pollena pyroclastic density current deposits, Somma-Vesuvius, Italy     

Elena Zanella  Lucia Gurioli  Roberto Lanza  Roberto Sulpizio  Manuela Bontempi 《Bulletin of Volcanology》2008,70(10):1237-1248

The deposition temperature of the pyroclastic density current (PDC) deposits emplaced during the AD 472 Pollena eruption (Somma-Vesuvius, Italy) has been investigated using the thermal analysis of the magnetic remanence carried by lithic clasts embedded within the deposits. A total of 310 lithic clasts were collected from all the PDC units in the Pollena stratigraphic succession, at different distances from the inferred vent and at different stratigraphic levels. The temperature reached by each individual clast during residence in the PDC was estimated through stepwise thermal demagnetization, with the values from all clasts collected at each site being used to infer the deposition temperature (T _dep). Although the sedimentological features of these PDC deposits show some variation, the deposition temperature typically falls in the range 300 to 320°C, with a maximum range of 260 to 360°C. The fairly uniform temperature observed in both the dune bedded and massive deposits points to homogeneity in attainment of T _dep for the different deposits and suggests similarity in the depositional regime of the different PDCs and/or in heat transfer to lithic fragments. Similarity in depositional regime was also favoured by the limited control exerted by topography on the distribution of these PDCs, with the northern wall of the Somma caldera that did not act as a morphological barrier. As a result the currents were capable of moving away from the vent, without topographic disturbances and, thus, significant variations in the cooling regime. Because the Pollena eruption is considered similar to the maximum expected event at Somma-Vesuvius, the characteristics of its deposits best simulate the likely maximum hazard for the Vesuvius region. In this regard, Pollena produced hot, dilute PDCs which were able to travel up to 12 km from the vent maintaining high temperatures across this distance.  相似文献   

Empirical equations for the prediction of PGA and pseudo spectral accelerations using Iranian strong-motion data     

H. Zafarani  Lucia Luzi  Giovanni Lanzano  M. R. Soghrat 《Journal of Seismology》2018,22(1):263-285

A recently compiled, comprehensive, and good-quality strong-motion database of the Iranian earthquakes has been used to develop local empirical equations for the prediction of peak ground acceleration (PGA) and 5%-damped pseudo-spectral accelerations (PSA) up to 4.0 s. The equations account for style of faulting and four site classes and use the horizontal distance from the surface projection of the rupture plane as a distance measure. The model predicts the geometric mean of horizontal components and the vertical-to-horizontal ratio. A total of 1551 free-field acceleration time histories recorded at distances of up to 200 km from 200 shallow earthquakes (depth < 30 km) with moment magnitudes ranging from M_w 4.0 to 7.3 are used to perform regression analysis using the random effects algorithm of Abrahamson and Youngs (Bull Seism Soc Am 82:505–510, 1992), which considers between-events as well as within-events errors. Due to the limited data used in the development of previous Iranian ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) and strong trade-offs between different terms of GMPEs, it is likely that the previously determined models might have less precision on their coefficients in comparison to the current study. The richer database of the current study allows improving on prior works by considering additional variables that could not previously be adequately constrained. Here, a functional form used by Boore and Atkinson (Earthquake Spect 24:99–138, 2008) and Bindi et al. (Bull Seism Soc Am 9:1899–1920, 2011) has been adopted that allows accounting for the saturation of ground motions at close distances. A regression has been also performed for the V/H in order to retrieve vertical components by scaling horizontal spectra. In order to take into account epistemic uncertainty, the new model can be used along with other appropriate GMPEs through a logic tree framework for seismic hazard assessment in Iran and Middle East region.  相似文献   

The Mid-Carboniferous to Lowermost Permian succession of Spiti (Po Group and Ganmachidam Formation; Tethys Himalaya,Northern India): Gondwana glaciation and rifting of Neo-Tethys.     

Eduardo Garzanti  Lucia Angiolini  Dario Sciunnach 《Geodinamica Acta》2013,26(2-3):78-100

Abstract

The upper Lower Carboniferous to lowermost Permian terrigenous succession of the Spiti Valley can be subdivided into five formations (Thabo Formation, Fenestella Shale, Kabjima Quartzarenite, Chichong Formation and Ganmachidam Diamictite), here described in detail and subdivided into members or lithozones.

The Po Group, overlying the platform carbonates and gypsum deposits of the Lipak Formation, records an increase of subarkosic to quartzarenitic terrigenous detritus derived from uplift and erosion of continental blocks in the south during the initial stage of Neo-Tethyan rifting. Increasing mineralogic stability through the Thabo Formation broadly coincides with a climate change from tropical arid to temperate humid conditions during the Visean-Serpukhovian. The Fenestella Shale, containing rich brachiopod associations of Bashkirian age, documents a stage of widespread subsidence and transgression, followed by the regressive Kabjima Quartzarenite, which records recycling of quartzose sedimentary sequences in the south.

The Chichong Formation marks another transgressive event, associated with a significant increase of granitoid detritus, partly from nearby Lesser to High Himalayan source areas. Chaetetid, cephalopod and brachiopod faunas hint at a Moscovian age for the “Chaetetid beds”, at the top of which varve-like lamination and scattered pebbles suggest glacially influenced deposition. The overlying glacio-fluvial (?) cobble conglomerates (“Pebbly beds”) reflect onset of rapid tectonic uplift.

Abundant detritus from sedimentary rocks characterizes the overlying Ganmachidam Diamictite, deposited in glacio-marine environments; cold-water marine faunas of Asselian age occur in its middle part. Erosion of progressively older pre-rift sedimentary successions is ascribed to basin inversion, associated with unroofing of anatectic granitoids of the Lesser and High Himalayas. Basaltic to rhyolitic volcanic detritus documents alkalic magmatism at the climax of continental rifting.  相似文献   

Radon and remediation measures near Băiţa-Ştei old uranium mine (Romania)     

Constantin Cosma  Alexandra Cucoş  Botond Papp  Robert Begy  Tiberiu Dicu  Mircea Moldovan  Lucia Adina Truţă  Dan Constantin Niţă  Bety-Denissa Burghele  Liviu Suciu  Carlos Sainz 《Acta Geophysica》2013,61(4):859-875

B?i?a-?tei mine is an open pit mine in NW Romania (West Carpathian Mountains). It was the largest surface uranium deposit in the world. Two means of uranium transport and dissemination were used over time. The first was the natural way, represented by transportation of geological sediments by Cri?ul-B?i?a River that crosses the B?i?a surface deposit. These sediments were used as building materials (stone, gravel, sand). The second way was related to the people living in this valley, who used also the uranium waste as building material. The preliminary indoor radon concentrations measured in the buildings ranged from 40 to 4000 Bq m^?3 with a mean value of 241 Bq m^?3. A focused radon survey facilitated the selection of 20 houses with the highest indoor radon that were therefore proposed for remediation. To find the radon sources of these houses, systematic investigations on radon were performed. The remedial measures for these 20 houses were tested on a chosen pilot house.  相似文献   

GIS,multi‐criteria and multi‐factor spatial analysis for the probability assessment of the existence of illegal landfills     

Giancarlo Biotto  Lucia Gobbo  Elisa Furlan  Sonia Valenti  Roberto Rosselli 《International journal of geographical information science》2013,27(10):1233-1244

This work deals with the identification of potentially contaminated areas using remote sensing, geographic information systems (GIS) and multi‐criteria spatial analysis. The identification of unknown illegal landfills is a crucial environmental problem in all developed and developing countries, where a large number of illegal waste deposits exist as a result of fast, and relatively unregulated, industrial growth over the past century. The criteria used to perform the spatial analysis are here selected by considering the characteristics which are ‘desirable’ for an illegal waste disposal site, chiefly related to the existence of roads for easy access and to a low population density which facilitates unnoticed dumping of illegal waste materials. A large dataset describing known legal and illegal landfills and the context of their location (population, road network, etc.) was used to perform a spatial statistical analysis to select factors and criteria allowing for the identification of the known waste deposits. The final result is a map describing the likelihood of an illegal waste deposit to be located at any arbitrary location. Such a probability map is then used together with remote sensing techniques to narrow down the set of possibly contaminated sites (Silvestri and Omri, 2008 Silvestri, S. and Omri, M. 2008. A method for the remote sensing identification of uncontrolled landfills: formulation and validation.. International Journal of Remote Sensing, 29(4): 975–989. [Taylor & Francis Online] , [Google Scholar]), which are candidates for further analyses and field investigations. The importance of the integration of GIS and remote sensing is highlighted and represents a key instrument for environmental management and for the spatially‐distributed characterization of possible uncontrolled landfill sites.  相似文献   

Identifying strengths and limitations of pan-European forest cover maps through spatial comparison     

Lucia Maria Seebach  Peter Strobl  Jesus San Miguel-Ayanz  Annemarie Bastrup-Birk 《International journal of geographical information science》2013,27(11):1865-1884

Detailed and harmonized information on spatial forest distribution is an essential input for forest-related environmental assessments, in particular, for biomass and growing stock modeling. In the last years, several mapping approaches have been developed in order to provide such information for Europe in a harmonized way. Each of these maps exhibits particular properties and varies in accuracy. Yet, they are often used in parallel for different modeling purposes. A detailed spatial comparison seemed necessary in order to provide information on the advantages and limitations of each of these forest cover maps in order to facilitate their selection for modeling purposes.

This article confronts the high-resolution forest cover map recently developed by the Joint Research Centre for the year 2000 (FMAP2000) with previously existing maps for the same time period: the CORINE Land Cover 2000 (CLC2000) and the Calibrated European Forest Map 1996 (CEFM1996). The spatial comparison of these three maps was carried out based on forest proportion maps of 1 km derived from the original maps. To characterize differences according to biogeographic regions, two criteria were used: detail of thematic content within each map and local spatial agreement.

Concerning thematic content, CLC2000 displayed a surfeit of non-forested areas at the cost of low forest proportions, while FMAP2000 showed a more balanced distribution likely to preserve more detail in forest spatial pattern. Good spatial agreement was found for CLC2000 and FMAP2000 within about 70% of the study area, while only 50% agreement was found when compared with CEFM1996. The largest spatial differences between all maps were found in the Alpine and Mediterranean regions. Reasons for these might be different input data and classification techniques and, in particular, the calibration of CEFM1996 to reported national statistics.  相似文献   

Organic pollutants (PAHs, PCBs) in sediments from the Mar Piccolo in Taranto (Ionian Sea, Southern Italy)   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Cardellicchio N  Buccolieri A  Giandomenico S  Lopez L  Pizzulli F  Spada L 《Marine pollution bulletin》2007,55(10-12):451-458

Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and 17 parent polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) were determined in surface sediments from nine stations in the Mar Piccolo of Taranto (Ionian Sea, Southern Italy). Total PAH concentrations ranged from 380 to 12,750 microg/kg d.w., while total PCB levels ranged from 2 to 1684 microg/kg d.w.; this values were higher than those found in others marine coastal areas of the Mediterranean Sea. For PAHs, low molecular weight/high molecular weight, phenanthrene/anthracene and fluoranthene/pyrene ratio were used for discriminating between pyrolitic and petroleum origin. Results showed that PAHs were mainly of pyrolitic origin. PCB and PAH levels in sediments were compared with Sediments Quality Guidelines (ERM-ERL, TEL-PEL indexes) for evaluation probable toxic effects on marine organism. Finally, ERM and PEL quotients were used to evaluate the degree to which chemicals exceed guidelines. Results suggest an ecotoxicological risk for benthic organisms mainly in the first inlet, where high concentrations of PCBs were found in sediments influenced by harbour activities.  相似文献   

Correlating Alpine glaciation with Adriatic sea‐level changes through lake and alluvial stratigraphy     

Giovanni Monegato  Roberta Pini  Cesare Ravazzi  Paula J. Reimer  Lucia Wick 《第四纪科学杂志》2011,26(8):791-804

We compare lake and alluvial stratigraphy along a frame connecting the southern Alpine foothills and the Adriatic Sea, with the aim of matching the effects of Alpine glaciation and sea‐level changes on sedimentation during the last glacial cycle. The palynostratigraphy of Lake Fimon provided proxies for regional vegetation and climate change and was coupled with sediment petrography, loss on ignition and magnetic susceptibility, disentangling alluvial phases from fluvioglacial activity related to culminations of the southeastern Alpine glaciers. The Fimon area was not reached by alluvial fans during the penultimate glacial maximum, nor by the sea transgression during the last interglacial, but a closed lake soon developed at the Eemian onset due to enhanced rainfall. Sea‐level fall at glacial inception triggered the entrenchment of the drainage network in the plain reaching the outer Fimon Basin. Slow aggradation, but no sign of fluvioglacial activity, lasted to 38.2 ± 1.45 cal. ka BP, when a major forest withdrawal took place, coeval to the spread of alluvial fans. By 27.5 ± 0.5 cal. ka BP the Fimon Basin was dammed by the Brenta outwash system. The main step of of forest recovery commenced at around (15.8) cal. ka BP, when apex trenching of the outwash fans was triggered by the glacier's decay. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献