利用改进灰色模型的钟差预报算法及其精度分析   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

张清华  隋立芬  牟忠凯  王冰 《测绘科学》2012,(1):51-53,114

灰色模型在钟差长期预报中虽具有一定的优势,但是预测的精度还有进一步提高的可能。在本文中,采用经过数据预处理和残差修正对一阶灰色模型进行了改进,再对GPS卫星钟差进行不同时间尺度上的预报。算例利用IGS提供的精密钟差产品,建立了一个基于改进灰色模型的预报算法,改进灰色模型的预报精度较传统的二次项模型有了很大的提高,且预报结果的收敛性也获得了一定程度的改善。  相似文献   

The Impact of Horizontal Resolution on the CNOP and on Its Identified Sensitive Areas for Tropical Cyclone Predictions   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

ZHOU Feifan  MU Mu 《大气科学进展》2012,29(1):36-46

In this study,the impacts of horizontal resolution on the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP) and on its identified sensitive areas were investigated for tropical cyclone predictions.Three resolutions,30 km,60 km,and 120 km,were studied for three tropical cyclones,TC Mindulle (2004),TC Meari (2004),and TC Matsa (2005).Results show that CNOP may present different structures with different resolutions,and the major parts of CNOP become increasingly localized with increased horizontal resolution.CNOP produces spiral and baroclinic structures,which partially account for its rapid amplification.The differences in CNOP structures result in different sensitive areas,but there are common areas for the CNOP-identified sensitive areas at various resolutions,and the size of the common areas is different from case to case.Generally,the forecasts benefit more from the reduction of the initial errors in the sensitive areas identified using higher resolutions than those using lower resolutions.However,the largest improvement of the forecast can be obtained at the resolution that is not the highest for some cases.In addition,the sensitive areas identified at lower resolutions are also helpful for improving the forecast with a finer resolution,but the sensitive areas identified at the same resolution as the forecast would be the most beneficial.  相似文献   

The Roles of Spatial Locations and Patterns of Initial Errors in the Uncertainties of Tropical Cyclone Forecasts   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

CHEN Boyu  MU Mu 《大气科学进展》2012,29(1):63-78

In this study,a series of sensitivity experiments were performed for two tropical cyclones (TCs),TC Longwang (2005) and TC Sinlaku (2008),to explore the roles of locations and patterns of initial errors in uncertainties of TC forecasts.Specifically,three types of initial errors were generated and three types of sensitive areas were determined using conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP),first singular vector (FSV),and composite singular vector (CSV) methods.Additionally,random initial errors in randomly selected areas were considered.Based on these four types of initial errors and areas,we designed and performed 16 experiments to investigate the impacts of locations and patterns of initial errors on the nonlinear developments of the errors,and to determine which type of initial errors and areas has the greatest impact on TC forecasts.Overall,results from the experiments indicate the following:(1) The impact of random errors introduced into the sensitive areas was greater than that of errors themselves fixed in the randomly selected areas.From the perspective of statistical analysis,and by comparison,the impact of random errors introduced into the CNOP target area was greatest.(2) The initial errors with CNOP,CSV,or FSV patterns were likely to grow faster than random errors.(3) The initial errors with CNOP patterns in the CNOP target areas had the greatest impacts on the final verification forecasts.  相似文献   

基于Erdas Image 9.2 LPS区域网平差处理Spot5卫星影像实现方法     

汲旭生  张丽梅  穆安才  马治 《东北测绘》2012,(1):132-134

介绍基于LPS的正射影像处理流程,以图文的形式描述区域网平差处理Spot-5卫星影像的具体过程,最后得到正射纠正影像,用于1∶50 000DOM生产。  相似文献   

高原东侧特大暴雨过程中秦岭山脉的作用   总被引：8，自引：5，他引：3       下载免费PDF全文

慕建利  李泽椿  李耀辉 《高原气象》2009,28(6):1282-1290

利用中尺度数值模式MM5V3.5对2002年6月8～9日陕西特大暴雨过程进行了数值模拟, 在模拟结果和实况较吻合的情况下, 通过敏感性试验, 研究了秦岭山脉在这次暴雨过程中所起的作用。结果表明, 秦岭山脉在这次暴雨过程中对降水的强度有很大的影响, 即秦岭山脉使陕甘宁边界的长城沿线、 秦岭山脉、 汉江河谷一带降水量增加, 使关中盆地、 陕北南部、 大巴山东南坡降水量减少。进一步研究表明, 秦岭山脉主要是通过形成局地环流, 使气流产生辐合, 大量的水汽和位势不稳定能量在迎风坡堆积, 上升运动加强, 从而使位势不稳定能量得以释放, 触发了对流降水。  相似文献   

台风影响上下海近海风场特性的数值模拟分析     

徐家良  穆海振 《热带气象学报》2009,25(3)

选择近年来影响上海最严重的不同路径台风个例,首先利用TAPM数值模式对出现最大风速过程期间,海岸线的风速变化作了数值模拟计算,然后与海岸测风梯度塔的同步观测数据进行对比,在验证了模式计算结果的准确性和可靠性基础上,对台风影响下上海近海区域最大风速的分布特征、不同高度风速变化规律进行分析评估.同时采用海上测风平台的观测数据,对近海海面上的湍流强度作了计算.结果表明:当台风影响上海地区时,上海近海海上的最大风速有较明显的梯度变化;海面上风速随高度变化远比陆上小,各高度层风速如用指数律公式计算,幂指数可取O.09-0.10;海面上的湍流强度亦较小,基本上在0.10以下范围内波动.  相似文献   

Algorithm Studies on How to Obtain a Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbation (CNOP)     

SUN Guodong  MU Mu  ZHANG Yale 《大气科学进展》2010,27(6):1311-1321

The conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP), which is a nonlinear generalization of the linear singular vector (LSV), is applied in important problems of atmospheric and oceanic sciences, including ENSO predictability, targeted observations, and ensemble forecast. In this study, we investigate the computational cost of obtaining the CNOP by several methods. Differences and similarities, in terms of the computational error and cost in obtaining the CNOP, are compared among the sequential quadratic programming (SQP) algorithm, the limited memory Broyden-Fletcher-Goldfarb-Shanno (L-BFGS) algorithm, and the spectral projected gradients (SPG2) algorithm. A theoretical grassland ecosystem model and the classical Lorenz model are used as examples. Numerical results demonstrate that the computational error is acceptable with all three algorithms. The computational cost to obtain the CNOP is reduced by using the SQP algorithm. The experimental results also reveal that the L-BFGS algorithm is the most effective algorithm among the three optimization algorithms for obtaining the CNOP. The numerical results suggest a new approach and algorithm for obtaining the CNOP for a large-scale optimization problem.  相似文献   

一次强风切变过程的分析及成因讨论   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2       下载免费PDF全文

慕熙昱  徐琪  夏文梅  徐芬 《高原气象》2010,29(5):1289-1296

2006年6月21日09:04南京禄口机场监测到较强风切变。龙王山(南京)多普勒天气雷达观测图上显示,此时恰有一直径为50 km的对流云团自西向东经过禄口机场。南京市地面自动气象站的观测也表明,此时在南京地区近地层气流出现急剧变化。利用多普勒天气雷达资料对风暴进行立体结构分析,并结合地面自动气象站资料分析得知,这次过程在3 km以下的低层有水平方向的风切变,在1 km高度处有垂直方向的风切变。从多普勒天气雷达的垂直积分液态含水量产品能够更直接地看到对流云团的发展过程,这有助于预报风切变发生的位置。这次雷暴系统中宏下击暴流引起的高空气流下沉,至地面后向两侧辐散,造成水平方向及垂直方向都有强风切变存在。  相似文献   

宁夏北部一次短时暴雨中尺度对流系统的特征分析   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

纪晓玲  冯建民  穆建华  辛尧胜  马筛艳  聂晶鑫 《南京气象学院学报》2010,33(6):711-718

利用自动站、闪电定位信息、多普勒雷达、卫星黑体亮温等气象资料,对2008年7月18日夜间宁夏石炭井的短时暴雨天气进行了分析。结果表明：此次单站短时暴雨是在“西高东低”的环流背景下,受东北冷涡后部横槽和低值系统影响,由两个相对较强的对流单体先后影响而后合并维持造成的。中尺度对流系统在宁夏北部持续时间近6h,云项亮温梯度最大值维持在石炭并一带;对应3次强降水时段,雷达回波强度、回波顶高、VIL出现了3次峰值,径向速度出现了气旋式辐合和逆风区结构,逆风区出现时间较强降水出现提前了20～30min,与强降水的发生、发展和减弱有较好的对应关系;闪电发生高密度区位于降水中心前缘,闪电频率突然增大时间较强降水出现超前1h。  相似文献   

上海气温变化及城市化影响初步分析   总被引：7，自引：1，他引：6  

穆海振  孔春燕  汤绪  柯晓新 《热带气象学报》2008,24(6):672-678

为研究在全球变化背景下上海市区气温变化规律和城市化进程对其影响,分析了上海市区气温对全球变暖的响应,对比了市区和郊区气温在不同气候背景下的变化趋势,采用与郊区台站对比法分析了上海市区气温城市化效应,研究了城市化进程与气温各分量长期变化趋势之间的关系,将高空与地面观测资料相结合,定量估算了城市化效应对平均气温的贡献,初步讨论了气温的城市化效应成因。研究结果表明：1873~2004年上海市区年平均气温的长期变化趋势为1.31 ℃/(100 a),在1921~1948年和1979~2004年两个时期增温明显,其中第二段增温强于第一段;与郊区站点相比,市区在降温期内降温最小,增温期内升温幅度最大;城市发展导致市区和郊区气温有显著差别且温差逐年加大,其中平均气温和最低气温在秋季的差别最大,最高气温市区和郊区之间差别在夏季最大;城市化进程加快了地面气温升高的速率,其中以最低气温最为明显;在1980年代城市化效应使上海市区年平均温度平均升高0.4 ℃,在1990年代平均升高1.1 ℃。  相似文献