Uncertainty in predictions of oil spill trajectories in open sea     

P. Sebastio  C. Guedes Soares 《Ocean Engineering》2007,34(3-4):576-584

A method is introduced to calculate and to account for the uncertainties in the predictions of oil spill trajectories using a classic oil spill model. The method considers the output of the oil spill model as a function of random variables, which are the input parameters, and calculates the standard deviation of the output results which gives a measure of the uncertainty of the model given the uncertainties of the input parameters.Instead of a single trajectory that is calculated by the oil spill model using the mean values of the parameters, a band of trajectories can be defined when various simulations are done taking into account the uncertainties of the input parameters. This band of trajectories defines envelopes of the trajectories that are likely to be followed by the spill given the uncertainties of the input.The method is applied to an oil spill that occurred in open sea near Madeira Islands, in the Atlantic Ocean, in December 1989. The simulations allow the understanding of how a change in the wind direction drove the spill towards the Islands.The envelope of likely trajectories that is obtained with the uncertainty modelling shows a band of trajectories that is in better agreement with the observations than the single trajectory simulated by the oil spill model, based on mean parameters.  相似文献   

Assessment of cytochrome P450 1A in harbour seals (Phoca vitulina) using a minimally-invasive biopsy approach     

Miller KA  Assunção MG  Dangerfield NJ  Bandiera SM  Ross PS 《Marine environmental research》2005,60(2):153-169

Biomarkers of organochlorine exposure, such as the induction of cytochrome P450 1A (CYP1A), can be used to assess the impact of environmental contaminants on the health of free-ranging marine mammal populations. The objective of the present study was to measure CYP1A in skin and liver biopsies obtained from live harbour seals (Phoca vitulina). Twelve harbour seal pups, aged three to five weeks, were captured from the Fraser River estuary, British Columbia, Canada, and temporarily held in captivity. Skin ( approximately 60 mg) and liver ( approximately 40 mg) biopsies, obtained while seals were under general anaesthesia, yielded sufficient tissue for the measurement of CYP1A by immunoblot analysis and ethoxyresorufin O-deethylase activity. A short-term exposure experiment, in which harbour seals (n=3) were treated orally with beta-naphthoflavone (BNF), resulted in increased hepatic and cutaneous CYP1A protein levels, consistent with observations in other mammals. This study is the first to measure CYP1A in skin and liver biopsies from live harbour seals and to report in vivo BNF-associated CYP1A induction in a marine mammal. The results demonstrate that microsamples collected using minimally-invasive techniques can provide toxicologically-relevant information form marine mammals.  相似文献   

Multi-level assessment of chronic toxicity of estuarine sediments with the amphipod Gammarus locusta: II. Organism and population-level endpoints     

Costa FO  Neuparth T  Correia AD  Costa MH 《Marine environmental research》2005,60(1):93-110

This study aimed to test the performance of the amphipod Gammarus locusta (L.) in chronic sediment toxicity tests. It constitutes part of a multi-level assessment of chronic toxicity of estuarine sediments, integrating organism and population-level endpoints with biochemical markers responses. Here we account for organism and population-level effects, while biomarker responses were reported in a companion article. Five moderately contaminated sediments from Sado and Tagus estuaries were tested, comprising 3 muddy and 2 sandy sediments. These sediments either did not show acute toxicity or were diluted with control sediment as much as required to remove acute toxicity. Subsequent chronic tests consisted of 28-day exposures with survival, individual growth and reproductive traits as endpoints. Two of the muddy sediments induced higher growth rates in the amphipods, and improved reproductive traits. This was understood to be a consequence of the amount of organic matter in the sediment, which was nutritionally beneficial to the amphipods, while concurrently decreasing contaminant bioavailability. Biomarker responses did not reveal toxicant-induced stress in amphipods exposed to these sediments. One of the sandy sediments was acutely toxic at 50% dilution, but in contrast stimulated amphipod growth when diluted 75%. This was presumed to be an indication of a hormetic response. Finally the two remaining contaminated sediments showed pronounced chronic toxicity, affecting survival and reproduction. The sex ratio of survivors was highly biased towards females, and offspring production was severely impaired. The particulars of the responses of this amphipod were examined, as well as strengths versus limitations of the sediment test. This study illustrates the utility of this chronic test for toxicity assessment of contaminated estuarine sediments, with potential application all along Atlantic Europe.  相似文献   

Effects of crab–halophytic plant interactions on creek growth in a S.W. Atlantic salt marsh: A Cellular Automata model     

Darío R. Minkoff  Mauricio Escapa  Flix E. Ferramola  Silvio D. Maraschín  Jorge O. Pierini  Gerardo M.E. Perillo  Claudio Delrieux 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》2006,69(3-4):403

The Bahía Blanca Estuary (38° 50′ S, and 62° 30′ W) presents salt marshes where interactions between the local flora (Sarcocornia perennis) and fauna (Chasmagnathus granulatus) generate some kind of salt pans that alter the normal water circulation and condition its flow and course towards tidal creeks. The crab–vegetation dynamics in the salt marsh presents variations that cannot be quantified in a reasonable period of time. The interaction between S. perennis plant and C. granulatus crab is based on simple laws, but its result is a complex biological mechanism that causes an erosive process on the salt marsh and favors the formation of tidal creeks. To study it, a Cellular Automata model is proposed, based on the laws deduced from the observation of these phenomena in the field, and then verified with measurable data within macroscale time units. Therefore, the objective of this article is to model how the interaction between C. granulatus and S. perennis modifies the landscape of the salt marsh and influences the path of tidal creeks. The model copies the basic laws that rule the problem based on purely biological factors.The Cellular Automata model proved capable of reproducing the effects of the interaction between plants and crabs in the salt marsh. A study of the water drainage of the basins showed that this interaction does indeed modify the development of tidal creeks. Model dynamics would likewise follow different laws, which would provide a different formula for the probability of patch dilation. The patch shape can be obtained changing the pattern that dilates.  相似文献   

The mysid Siriella armata as a test organism in toxicology: Effects of cadmium     

C. Birmelin  J. Cuzin-Roudy  M. Romo  M. Gnassia-Barelli  S. Puiseux-Dao 《Marine environmental research》1995,39(1-4)

A shrimp-like crustacean of the coastal Zooplankton in the north-western Mediterranean Sea, the mysid Siriella armata, offers a test organism whose life cycle is entirely controllable under laboratory conditions. The effects of the heavy metal cadmium were studied on adults and juveniles cultured in the laboratory including acute toxicity, bioaccumulation and effects on growth, ingestion and moult cycle.  相似文献   

Hydrogeochemistry and isotope analyses used to determine groundwater recharge and flow in low-gradient catchments of the province of Buenos Aires,Argentina   总被引：7，自引：3，他引：4  

O. M. Quiroz Londoño  D. E. Martínez  C. Dapeña  H. Massone 《Hydrogeology Journal》2008,16(6):1113-1127

The region known as Pampa Plain, in Argentina, is a vast area characterized by slopes of less than 0.05%. The surface sediment is silty sand, mainly Aeolian, referred to as Pampean Loess, which is a phreatic aquifer unit of utmost importance for the water supply of the region. On account of the slight gradient, hydrogeological analyses using only hydraulic measurements are difficult to perform, often leading to confusing results. Thus, the study presented relies on hydrochemical modeling and isotopic determinations as well. The study area comprises three catchments in the inter-mountainous area corresponding to El Moro, Tamangueyú and Seco creeks, and covering 2,570 km² in the province of Buenos Aires. Measurements of piezometric levels and samples of groundwater, surface water and rainwater were carried out between January and March 2005. Major ion results were analyzed by means of hydrochemical graphs and hydrogeochemical modelling using NETPATH. The resulting data show that it is possible to identify local changes in recharge, flow direction and stream/groundwater relationship by using hydrochemical and isotopic information, which may become a useful and more precise tool for the study of particularly flat landscapes.  相似文献   

Circular polarization of solar bursts at 22 GHz     

P. Kaufmann  F. M. Strauss  J. E. R. Costa  E. Correia 《Solar physics》1993,148(2):341-358

The circular polarization of complex solar bursts was measured at short microwaves (22 GHz, × 1.35 cm) with high sensitivity (0.03 s.f.u. r.m.s.) and high time resolution (5 ms). The polarization shows up as soon as an excess burst emission is measured. Two components are found in the time development of the degree of circular polarization: (1) a steady level, sometime changing smoothly with time; (2) superimposed faster polarization time structures, small compared to the basic steady degree of polarization, and often not clearly related to the burst flux time structures. The observed degrees may range from 10% to more than 85%.In memoriam (1942–1981).  相似文献   

Is C/O enhanced in NGC 253?     

Andrew Harrison  Peter Brand  Adrian Russell  Phil Puxley 《Astrophysics and Space Science》1995,224(1-2):473-474

We have mapped the nuclear region of the starburst galaxy NGC 253 in the³ P ₁ ³ P ₀ line of neutral carbon using the JCMT. Carbon is widespread across the nuclear region with a similiar distribution to CO as expected. Previous studies of Galactic star-forming regions showed that carbon emission is enhanced in photon-dominated regions (where UV photons impinge upon molecular clouds). Previous observations of other PDR tracers such as ionized carbon and FIR continuum constrain the physical conditions in the PDR gas of NGC 253. The carbon we have observed is far brighter than predicted by theoretical models of PDRs with solar elemental values. This indicates that carbon emission is not a reliable diagnostic of the physical conditions in the nuclear region of a galaxy undergoing a burst of star formation.  相似文献   

Rb/Sr dating of the Upper Proterozoic basement of Zambesia,Mozambique     

Mario Costa  Giorgio Ferrara  Rosalino Sacchi  Sonia Tonarini 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》1992,81(2):487-500

The Proterozoic basement of the Province of Zambezia (Mozambique) is located near the southern end of the so called Mozambique Belt. Rb-Sr data derived from the analyses of 66 whole rocks and a few mineral samples bear witness of a magmatic and metamorphic episode referable to the Kibaran (ca. 1000 Ma) and helped to model the late-Proterozoic evolution as follows. At 1100–1050 Ma a pre-orogenic, calc-alkaline magmatism was responsible for the emplacement of now deformed granite and granodiorite. This phase was accompanied by rhyolitic volcanism. A subsequent peak of deformation and metamorphism occurred at 1000-950 Ma and was associated with a second generation of substantially post-tectonic granites. A thermal event resulting in the emplacement of a final generation of granites and pegmatites can be dated to around 500-450 Ma.The metamorphic basement has not preserved its protolith age, probably as a result of extensive isotopic homogeneization of Sr in Kibaran times. Its maximum time of differentiation from the mantle should be around 1600 Ma.The very low values of initial Sr isotopic ratios suggest the absence of Archean crustal precursors and support the rather young, yet pre-Pan-African evolution of the southernmost Mozambique Belt.

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Zusammenfassung Das proterozoische Grundgebirge der Provinz Zambesi (Mosambique) befindet sich in der Nähe des südlichen Endes des sogenannten Mozambique Belt. Rb/Sr Daten aus 66 Ganzgesteins- und einigen Mineralanalysen zeugen von einer magmatischen und metamorphen Episode die sich dem Kibaran (ca. 1000 Ma) zuordnen läßt, und wie sich im folgenden zeigt, hilfreich bei der Modellisierung der spätproterozoischen Entwicklung ist. Um 1100 bis 1050 Ma erfolgte ein präorogener kalkalkalischer Magmatismus, bestehend aus Graniten und Granodioriten, die heute deformiert vorliegen. Diese Phase wurde von rhyolithischem Vulkanismus begleitet. Von 1000 bis 950 Ma folgte der Höhepunkt der Deformation und Metamorphose, begleitet von einer bedeutenden 2. Generation posttektonischer Granite. Bedingt durch ein weiteres thermales Ereignis intrudierte die letzte Granit- und Pegmatitgeneration vor 500 bis 450 Ma.Im metamorphen Grundgebirge ist das Eduktalter vermutlich aufgrund der starken isotopischen Homogenisierung von Sr während der Kibara-Zeit nicht erhalten. Seine maximale Differentiationszeit vom Mantel muß vor 1600 Ma gewesen sein.Die sehr niedrigen Gehalte der initialen Sr-Isotopenverhältnisse lassen die Abwesenheit von archaischen Krustenvorläufern vermuten, und unterstützen die sehr junge, bis jetzt Prä-Pan-Afrikanische Entwicklung des südlichsten Mozambique Belts.

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Résumé Le socle protérozoïque de la province du Zambèze, au Mozambique, se trouve à proximité de l'extrémité sud du «Mozambique Belt». Des mesures Rb/Sr effectuées sur 66 roches totales et sur quelques minéraux témoignent d'un épisode magmatique et métamorphique attribuable au Kibarien (environ 1.000 Ma), ce qui permet de se représenter comme suit l'histoire de cette région au Protérozoïque supérieur. Il y a 1.100 à 1.050 Ma, la région a connu une phase de magmatisme calco-alcalin qui s'est traduite par la mise en place de granites et granodiorites, aujord'hui déformés. Cette phase s'est accompagnée d'un volcanisme rhyolitique. Elle a été suivie, entre 1.000 et 950 Ma, d'une activité tectono-métamorphique majeure, à laquelle est associée une deuxième et importante génération de granites, post-tectoniques. Ultérieurement, la région a connu encore un épisode thermique, daté à 500-450 Ma, responsable de la mise en place d'une dernière génération de granite et de pegmatite.Le socle métamorphique n'a pas gardé de témoins de l'âge de son protolithe, en raison probablement de la forte homogénisation isotopique du Sr à l'époque kibarienne. Lâge maximal de sa différenciation à partir du manteau doit se situer autour de 1.600 Ma.La valeur très basse des rapports isotopiques initiaux du Sr suggère l'absence de précurseurs crustaux archéens et incite à admettre une évolution relativement jeune — bien que pré-panafricaine — du «Mozambique Belt» méridional.

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Typological analysis of demographic changes in the Tuscan communes     

Bottai M  Costa M  Formentini U 《Rivista geografica italiana》1978,85(4):321-347

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