Arctic climate change with a 2 ∘C global warming: Timing, climate patterns and vegetation change     

Jed O. Kaplan  Mark New 《Climatic change》2006,79(3-4):213-241

The signatories to United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change are charged with stabilizing the concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere at a level that prevents dangerous interference with the climate system. A number of nations, organizations and scientists have suggested that global mean temperature should not rise over 2 ^°C above preindustrial levels. However, even a relatively moderate target of 2 ^°C has serious implications for the Arctic, where temperatures are predicted to increase at least 1.5 to 2 times as fast as global temperatures. High latitude vegetation plays a significant role in the lives of humans and animals, and in the global energy balance and carbon budget. These ecosystems are expected to be among the most strongly impacted by climate change over the next century. To investigate the potential impact of stabilization of global temperature at 2 ^°C, we performed a study using data from six Global Climate Models (GCMs) forced by four greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, the BIOME4 biogeochemistry-biogeography model, and remote sensing data. GCM data were used to predict the timing and patterns of Arctic climate change under a global mean warming of 2 ^°C. A unified circumpolar classification recognizing five types of tundra and six forest biomes was used to develop a map of observed Arctic vegetation. BIOME4 was used to simulate the vegetation distributions over the Arctic at the present and for a range of 2 ^°C global warming scenarios. The GCMs simulations indicate that the earth will have warmed by 2 ^°C relative to preindustrial temperatures by between 2026 and 2060, by which stage the area-mean annual temperature over the Arctic (60–90^°N) will have increased by between 3.2 and 6.6 ^°C. Forest extent is predicted by BIOME4 to increase in the Arctic on the order of 3 × 10⁶ km² or 55% with a corresponding 42% reduction in tundra area. Tundra types generally also shift north with the largest reductions in the prostrate dwarf-shrub tundra, where nearly 60% of habitat is lost. Modeled shifts in the potential northern limit of trees reach up to 400 km from the present tree line, which may be limited by dispersion rates. Simulated physiological effects of the CO₂ increase (to ca. 475 ppm) at high latitudes were small compared with the effects of the change in climate. The increase in forest area of the Arctic could sequester 600 Pg of additional carbon, though this effect is unlikely to be realized over next century.  相似文献   

Fire Danger Monitoring Using ERS-1 SAR Images in the Case of Northern Boreal Forests     

Brigitte Leblon  Eric Kasischke  Marty Alexander  Mark Doyle  Melissa Abbott 《Natural Hazards》2002,27(3):231-255

Research was carried out to assess the potential of imaging radar systems formonitoring forest fire danger. In Canada, daily forest fire danger ratings are generated by the Canadian ForestFire Danger Rating System (CFFDRS), based on estimates of fire weather indices (FWI) and measured foliar moisturecontent (FMC). To evaluate the potential of imaging radar, an experiment was conducted using test sitesconsisting of jack pine, black spruce and white spruce stands located in the MacKenzie river basin, NorthwestTerritories, Canada. Radar image intensity values from ERS-1 SAR imagery collected over these stands in 1994 werecompared to FWI indices and FMC data. FWI indices were calculated using data from local weather stations.Seasonal trends in radar backscatter (⁰) were shown to correlate with temperature and precipitation. Significant relationships were found between ⁰ and FWI codes and indices, particularly in thecase of the black spruce stands, with slow-drying fuels, like duff moisture code (DMC), drought code (DC), and build-upindex (BUI). Rates of changes in ⁰were related to rates of changes in FMC, particularly in the case ofthe jack pine stands for old FMC and in the case of white spruce stands for composite FMC.  相似文献   

Interstellar scintillation of compact extragalactic radio sources     

Mark A. Walker 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》1998,294(2):307-311

The recent discovery of radio variability of a quasar on short time-scales (hours) prompts us to examine what is expected in respect of the interstellar scintillation of very compact, extragalactic radio sources. We find that large-amplitude, rapid, variability is predicted at commonly observed radio frequencies (1–20 GHz) over the vast majority of the extragalactic sky. As a guide to assist observers in understanding their data, we demonstrate simple techniques for predicting the effects of interstellar scintillation on any extragalactic source.  相似文献   

White dwarf masses in magnetic cataclysmic variables: multi-temperature fits to Ginga data     

Mark Cropper  Gavin Ramsay  & Kinwah Wu 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》1998,293(3):222-232

One method of obtaining the mass of the white dwarf in magnetic cataclysmic variables (mCVs) is through their hard X-ray spectra. However, previous mass estimates using this method give lower limits because the temperature of the plasma in the post-shock region (where the hard X-rays are emitted) is lower than the temperature of the shock itself. In AM Her systems, the additional cooling of the post-shock plasma by cyclotron emission will further lower the derived mass. Here we present estimates of the masses of the white dwarf in 13 mCVs derived using Ginga data and a model in which X-rays are emitted from a multi-temperature emission region with the appropriate temperature and density profile. We include in the model reflection from the surface of the white dwarf and a partially ionized absorber. We are able to achieve good fits to the data. We compare the derived masses with previous estimates and the masses for larger samples of isolated white dwarfs and those in CVs.  相似文献   

Dust grains and the structure of steady C-type magnetohydrodynamic shock waves in molecular clouds     

Mark Wardle 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》1998,298(2):507-524

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A radio-jet–galaxy interaction in 3C 441     

Mark Lacy  Steve Rawlings  Katherine M. Blundell  & Susan E. Ridgway 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》1998,298(4):966-976

Multiwavelength imaging and spectroscopy of the z =0.708 radio galaxy 3C 441 and a red aligned optical/infrared component are used to show that the most striking aspect of the radio–optical 'alignment effect' in this object is due to the interaction of the radio jet with a companion galaxy in the same group or cluster. The stellar population of the red aligned continuum component is predominantly old, but with a small post-starburst population superposed, and it is surrounded by a low-surface-brightness halo, possibly a face-on spiral disc. The [O iii ] 500.7/[O ii ] 372.7 emission-line ratio changes dramatically from one side of the component to the other, with the low-ionization material apparently having passed through the bow shock of the radio source and been compressed. A simple model for the interaction is used to explain the velocity shifts in the emission-line gas, and to predict that the ISM of the interacting galaxy is likely to escape once the radio source bow shock has passed through. We also discuss another, much fainter, aligned component, and the subarcsecond-scale alignment of the radio source host galaxy. Finally, we comment on the implications of our explanation of 3C 441 on theories for the alignment effect.  相似文献   

The Effect of Clouds on the Visible Spectra of Extrasolar Giant Planets     

Stephens  Denise C.  Marley  Mark  Gelino  C. R.  Lunine  Jonathon I. 《Earth, Moon, and Planets》1998,81(1):105-106

Earth, Moon, and Planets -  相似文献   

A multi-proxy study of Holocene environmental change in the Maya Lowlands of Peten, Guatemala     

Jason H. Curtis  Mark Brenner  David A. Hodell  Richard A. Balser  Gerald A. Islebe  Henry Hooghiemstra 《Journal of Paleolimnology》1998,19(2):139-159

We used multiple variables in a sediment core from Lake Peten-Itza, Peten, Guatemala, to infer Holocene climate change and human influence on the regional environment. Multiple proxies including pollen, stable isotope geochemistry, elemental composition, and magnetic susceptibility in samples from the same core allow differentiation of natural versus anthropogenic environmental changes. Core chronology is based on AMS ¹⁴C measurement of terrestrial wood and charcoal and thus avoids the vagaries of hard-water-lake error. During the earliest Holocene, prior to 9000 ¹⁴C yr BP, the coring site was not covered by water and all proxies suggest that climatic conditions were relatively dry. Water covered the coring site by 9000 ¹⁴C yr BP, coinciding with filling of other lakes in Peten and farther north on the Yucatan Peninsula. During the early Holocene (9000 to 6800 ¹⁴C yr BP), pollen data suggest moist conditions, but high ¹⁸O values are indicative of relatively high E/P. This apparent discrepancy may be due to a greater fractional loss of the lake's water budget to evaporation during the early stages of lake filling. Nonetheless, conditions were moist enough to support semi-deciduous lowland forest. Decrease in ¹⁸O values and associated change in ostracod species at 6800 ¹⁴C yr BP suggest a transition to even moister conditions. Decline in lowland forest taxa beginning 5780 ¹⁴C yr BP may indicate early human disturbance. By 2800 ¹⁴C yr BP, Maya impact on the environment is documented by accelerated forest clearance and associated soil erosion. Multiple proxies indicate forest recovery and soil stabilization beginning 1100 to 1000 ¹⁴C yr BP, following the collapse of Classic Maya civilization.  相似文献   

The composition of back-arc basin lower crust and upper mantle in the Mariana Trough: A first report   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Robert J.  Stern  Sherman H.  Bloomer  Fernando  Martinez  Toshitsugu  Yamazaki T. Mark  Harrison 《Island Arc》1996,5(3):354-372

Abstract The Mariana Trough is an active back-arc basin, with the rift propagating northward ahead of spreading. The northern part of the Trough is now rifting, with extension accommodated by combined stretching and igneous intrusion. Deep structural graben are found in a region of low heat flow, and we interpret these to manifest a low-angle normal fault system that defines the extension axis between 19°45' and 21°10'N. A single dredge haul from the deepest (∼5.5 km deep) of these graben recovered a heterogeneous suite of volcanic and plutonic crustal rocks and upper mantle peridotites, providing the first report of the deeper levels of back-arc basin lithosphere. Several lines of evidence indicate that these rocks are similar to typical back-arc basin lithosphere and are not fragments of rifted older arc lithosphere. Hornblende yielded an ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar age of 1.8 ± 0.6 Ma, which is interpreted to approximate the time of crust formation. Harzburgite spinels have moderate Cr# (<40) and coexisting compositions of clinopyroxene (CPX) and plagioclase (PLAB) fall in the field of mid-ocean ridge basalt (MORB) gabbros. Crustal rocks include felsic rocks (70-80% SiO₂) and plutonic rocks that are rich in amphibole. Chemical compositions of crustal rocks show little evidence for a 'subduction component', and radiogenic isotopic compositions correspond to that expected for back-arc basin crust of the Mariana Trough. These data indicate that mechanical extension in this part of the Mariana Trough involves lithosphere that originally formed magmatically. These unique exposures of back-arc basin lithosphere call for careful study using ROVs and manned submersibles, and consideration as an ocean drilling program (ODP) drilling site.  相似文献   

Evaluation of Simple Methods for Estimating Contaminant Removal by Flushing   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Mark L. Brusseau 《Ground water》1996,34(1):19-22

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