The effect of rate of change, variability, and extreme events on the pace of adaptation to a changing climate     

William R. Travis  Mary T. Huisenga 《Climatic change》2013,121(2):209-222

When is it time to adopt different technologies, management strategies, and resource use practices as underlying climate change occurs? We apply risk and decision analysis to test hypotheses about the timing and pace of adaption in response to different profiles of climate change and extremes expressed as yield and income variation for a simulated dryland wheat farm in the United States Great Plains. Climate scenarios include gradual change with typical or increased noise (standard deviation), rapid and large change, and gradual change with extreme events stepped through the simulation. We test decision strategies that might logically be utilized by farmers facing a climate trend that worsens crop enterprise outcomes. Adaptation quickens with the rate of change, especially for decision strategies based on performance thresholds, but is delayed by larger climate variability, especially for decision strategies based on recognizing growing differential between adaptive and non-adaptive performance. Extreme events evoke adaptation sooner than gradual change alone, and in some scenarios extremes evoke premature, inefficient, adaptation.  相似文献   

Modeling fluid injection in fractures with a reservoir simulator coupled to a boundary element method     

Benjamin Ganis  Mark E. Mear  A. Sakhaee-Pour  Mary F. Wheeler  Thomas Wick 《Computational Geosciences》2014,18(5):613-624

We describe an algorithm for modeling saturated fractures in a poroelastic domain in which the reservoir simulator is coupled with a boundary element method. A fixed stress splitting is used on the underlying fractured Biot system to iteratively couple fluid and solid mechanics systems. The fluid system consists of Darcy’s law in the reservoir and is computed with a multipoint flux mixed finite element method, and a Reynolds’ lubrication equation in the fracture solved with a mimetic finite difference method. The mechanics system consists of linear elasticity in the reservoir and is computed with a continuous Galerkin method, and linear elasticity in the fracture is solved with a weakly singular symmetric Galerkin boundary element method. This algorithm is able to compute both unknown fracture width and unknown fluid leakage rate. An interesting numerical example is presented with an injection well inside of a circular fracture.  相似文献   

GGR Biennial Critical Review: Analytical Developments Since 2012     

Michael Wiedenbeck  L. Paul Bédard  Roxana Bugoi  Mary Horan  Kathryn Linge  Silke Merchel  Luiz F. G. Morales  Dany Savard  A. Kate Souders  Paul Sylvester 《Geostandards and Geoanalytical Research》2014,38(4):467-512

Advances in the chemical, crystallographic and isotopic characterisation of geological and environmental materials can often be ascribed to technological improvements in analytical hardware or to innovative approaches to data acquisition and/or its interpretation. This biennial review addresses key laboratory methods that form much of the foundation for analytical geochemistry; again, this contribution is presented as a compendium of laboratory techniques. We highlight advances that have appeared since January 2012 and that are of particular significance for the chemical and isotopic characterisation of geomaterials. Prominent scientists from the selected analytical fields present publications they judge to be particular noteworthy, providing background information about the method and assessing where further opportunities might be anticipated. In addition to the well‐established technologies such as thermal ionisation mass spectrometry and plasma emission spectroscopy, this publication also presents new or rapidly growing methods such as electron backscattered diffraction analysis and atom probe tomography – a very sensitive method providing atomic scale information.  相似文献   

An assessment of aquifer storage recovery using ground water flow models   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

Lowry CS  Anderson MP 《Ground water》2006,44(5):661-667

Owing to increased demands on ground water accompanied by increased drawdowns, technologies that use recharge options, such as aquifer storage recovery (ASR), are being used to optimize available water resources and reduce adverse effects of pumping. In this paper, three representative ground water flow models were created to assess the impact of hydrogeologic and operational parameters/factors on recovery efficiency of ASR systems. Flow/particle tracking and solute transport models were used to track the movement of water during injection, storage, and recovery. Results from particle tracking models consistently produced higher recovery efficiency than the solute transport models for the parameters/properties examined because the particle tracking models neglected mixing of the injected and ambient water. Mixing between injected and ambient water affected recovery efficiency. Results from this study demonstrate the interactions between hydrogeologic and operational parameters on predictions of recovery efficiency. These interactions are best simulated using coupled numerical ground water flow and transport models that include the effects of mixing of injected water and ambient ground water.  相似文献   

The practical use of simplicity in developing ground water models   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Hill MC 《Ground water》2006,44(6):775-781

The advantages of starting with simple models and building complexity slowly can be significant in the development of ground water models. In many circumstances, simpler models are characterized by fewer defined parameters and shorter execution times. In this work, the number of parameters is used as the primary measure of simplicity and complexity; the advantages of shorter execution times also are considered. The ideas are presented in the context of constructing ground water models but are applicable to many fields. Simplicity first is put in perspective as part of the entire modeling process using 14 guidelines for effective model calibration. It is noted that neither very simple nor very complex models generally produce the most accurate predictions and that determining the appropriate level of complexity is an ill-defined process. It is suggested that a thorough evaluation of observation errors is essential to model development. Finally, specific ways are discussed to design useful ground water models that have fewer parameters and shorter execution times.  相似文献   

Plagiarism, copyright violation, and dual publication: are you guilty?     

Anderson MP 《Ground water》2006,44(5):623-623

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Assessment of Fish Assemblages Before Dredging of the Shipping Channel Near the Mouth of the Savannah River in Coastal Georgia     

Jennifer A. Güt  Mary Carla Curran 《Estuaries and Coasts》2017,40(1):251-267

Evaluating the effects of anthropogenic activities is dependent upon data collection prior to impact, though funds are rarely allocated to conduct an assessment before a critical need arises. The Savannah Harbor Expansion Project is one such activity that includes dredging of the Savannah River. It may potentially change physical conditions of the estuary thereby altering fish assemblages. The purpose of the present study was to characterize pre-impact fish assemblages along a salinity gradient near the mouth of the river and determine which abiotic factors most influence them. One site within the mouth of the Savannah River and two sites immediately outside the river mouth were sampled monthly for 2 years using both a beam trawl and seine net. Salinity, temperature, dissolved oxygen, and sediment grain size were assessed. All four factors had a significant effect on fish assemblages. A total of 3943 fishes representing ≥55 species formed three statistically distinct fish assemblages and at least three seasonal assemblages. Only 24 species (43.6 %) were collected by both gear types indicating the importance of using multiple gear types to assess fish assemblages. We conclude that the fish assemblages near the mouth of the Savannah River may be altered or may shift given the predicted increase in salinity and/or the possible changes in sediment composition from channel dredging. Understanding the abiotic factors that most influence spatial and seasonal fish distributions prior to dredging will be invaluable in predicting how organisms will be impacted by similar public projects elsewhere.  相似文献   

Time-dependent reliability analysis for radionuclide migration in groundwater in near surface disposal facility using the enhanced Monte Carlo method     

S. Sujitha  Deepthi Mary Dilip 《Georisk: Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards》2017,11(2):208-214

In the present study, reliability analysis of near surface disposal facility is performed, by assessing the probability of sequential failure of the multi barrier system using the contaminant transport model. The concentration and dose rate of the radionuclide evolve with time hence there is a need for time dependent reliability analysis. Due to the low values of expected probabilities of failure, an enhanced Monte Carlo (EMC) method and Subset simulation is employed. The Result of the analysis show that, the EMC method is useful to evaluate the probability of failure associated with the barrier system which has low probability of failure.  相似文献   

Differentiation of clay resources on a limestone plain: The analysis of clay utilization during the Maya Formative at K'axob Belize     

Mary Lee Bartlett  Hector Neff  Patricia A. McAnany 《Geoarchaeology》2000,15(2):95-133

Differentiating clay resources in a uniform limestone plain, such as occurs in northern Belize, offers special challenges for the archaeologist. Combining data from soil mapping with petrographic and neutron activation analysis provides a mechanism for distinguishing possible resource areas. This study employed each of these differing avenues of analysis to determine possible clay resource areas used during the Maya Formative in northern Belize Central America. The results indicate that clay usage changed significantly from the Middle Formative period to the end of Late Formative period. These changes suggest a move to increased localized production and resource exploitation by the end of the period. © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.  相似文献   

Cave bears and paleolithic artifacts in Yarimburgaz Cave,Turkey: Dissecting a palimpsest     

Mary C. Stiner  Güven Arsebük  F. Clark Howell 《Geoarchaeology》1996,11(4):279-327

This article addresses the taphonomic issues surrounding artifact-bear associations in Yarimburgaz Cave, northwestern Turkey. Our purpose is to evaluate the circumstances of bone assemblage formation in the Middle Pleistocene deposits of the cave, identifying the agencies responsible for the accumulations and the causes of bone damage before and following deposition. Pleistocene species representation, bone damage, body part representation, and mortality data indicate that cave bear remains in Yarimburgaz are unrelated to hominid use of the same site. None of the observations on the cave bear remains contradicts the expectations developed from modern wildlife accounts of modern bear behavior; these accumulations resulted from mortality normally associated with hibernation over many generations of den use. Nonursid carnivores also played roles in bone collection and/or modification. We conclude that at least three distinct biological processes contributed to the formation of the Middle Pleistocene faunas: hibernating bears, bone-collecting carnivores such as wolves, and hominids in descending order of importance. The Yarimburgaz faunas represent palimpsests or overlays of many short-term depositional events, the close spatial associations of which are explained by slow or uneven sedimentation rates inside the cave. Although occupations by hominids appear to have been ephemeral in nature, hominids ultimately discarded nearly 1700 stone artifacts in Yarimburgaz Cave. The hominids did not discard many ungulate bones in the same circumstances. These observations suggest that hominid foraging efforts focused on resources other than large game while at the cave. © 1996 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.  相似文献