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Natural Hazards - The western Makran subduction zone is capable of producing considerable tsunami run-up heights that penetrate up to 5 km inland. In this study, we show how climate change...  相似文献   
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Statistical and deterministic methods are widely used in geographic information system based landslide susceptibility mapping. This paper compares the predictive capability of three different models, namely the Weight of Evidence, the Fuzzy Logic and SHALSTAB, for producing shallow earth slide susceptibility maps, to be included as informative layers in land use planning at a local level. The test site is an area of about 450 km2 in the northern Apennines of Italy where, in April 2004, rainfall combined with snowmelt triggered hundreds of shallow earth slides that damaged roads and other infrastructure. An inventory of the landslides triggered by the event was obtained from interpretation of aerial photos dating back to May 2004. The pre-existence of mapped landslides was then checked using earlier aerial photo coverage. All the predictive models were run on the same set of geo-environmental causal factors: soil type, soil thickness, land cover, possibility of deep drainage through the bedrock, slope angle, and upslope contributing area. Model performance was assessed using a threshold-independent approach (the ROC plot). Results show that global accuracy is as high as 0.77 for both statistical models, while it is only 0.56 for SHALSTAB. Besides the limited quality of input data over large areas, the relatively poorer performance of the deterministic model maybe also due to the simplified assumptions behind the hydrological component (steady-state slope parallel flow), which can be considered unsuitable for describing the hydrologic behavior of clay slopes, that are widespread in the study area.  相似文献   
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The morphometry of 432 glacial cirques in the Maritime Alps (Western French‐Italian Alps), studied over several years of fieldwork, was analysed with the use of a geographical information system. Some of the parameters automatically evaluated from digital elevation models required an objective and relatively new definition. In particular, cirque length was measured along a line that, from the threshold midpoint, splits the cirque into two equivalent surfaces; cirque width was automatically drawn as the longest line inscribed in the cirque and perpendicular to the length line. Significant correlations were found among the different factors and parameters analysed. In particular, cirque shape analysis showed that cirques develop allometrically in the three dimensions, i.e. more in length and width than in altitudinal range. Nevertheless cirques of the Maritime Alps have a regular, almost circular shape (mean L/W value = 1.07). The correlations among length, width and area are all very high (r2= 0.8–0.9). In terms of size, cirques show a wide range in area from 0.06 to 5.2 km2 with a mean value of 0.4 km2. The largest cirques are found on SSW‐facing slopes and at high elevations. Small cirques can be found at all altitudes but all those at high elevation are part of compound cirques at the main head valleys. Most cirques (37%) are characterized by a northern aspect; NE and SW are also frequent directions.  相似文献   
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低温制冷技术是下一代激光干涉仪引力波探测器的核心技术之一. 日本引力波探测器KAGRA (Kamioka Gravitational Wave Detector)作为该技术的前沿开拓者, 将运行在20K的超低温环境中, 并使用在低温下热噪声较低的单晶蓝宝石晶体作为测试镜. 然而, 高质量大尺寸低吸收率的蓝宝石晶体极难制备. 此外, 由于蓝宝石晶体存在晶格结构不均匀, 很容易导致不必要的双折射效应, 从而影响探测器的目标灵敏度. 基于上述问题, 开发了两套大尺寸光学测量系统, 首次系统研究了KAGRA低温蓝宝石测试镜的光学特性. 首先, 根据探测器对测试镜热噪声的要求, 开发了一套基于光热共光路干涉技术的光学测量系统, 该系统可对测试镜以及测试镜表面涂层的光学吸收进行有效的表征. 其次, 基于光学吸收测量系统, 开发了一套双折射效应测量系统, 该系统可以有效表征测试镜中双折射的均匀性. 目前两套测量系统的搭建与调试已完成, 对蓝宝石测试镜光学吸收的测量灵敏度达到了1.5ppm/cm, 双折射测量系统的空间分辨率小于0.3mm times 0.3mm. 该工作对降低大尺寸低温测试镜双折射效应及提高探测器灵敏度具有重要意义.  相似文献   
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Drumlins are subglacial bedforms streamlined in the direction of ice flow. Common in deglaciated landscapes, they have been widely studied providing rich information on their internal geology, size, shape, and spacing. In contrast with bedform investigations elsewhere in geomorphology (aeolian and fluvial dunes and ripples for example) most drumlin studies derive observations from relict, and thus static features. This has made it difficult to gain information and insights about their evolution over time, which likely hampers our understanding of the process(es) of drumlin formation. Here we take a morphological approach, studying drumlin size and spacing metrics. Unlike previous studies which have focussed on databases derived from entire ice sheet beds, we adopt a space‐for‐time substitution approach using individual drumlin flow‐sets distributed in space as proxies for different development times/periods. Framed and assisted by insights from aeolian and fluvial geomorphology, we use our metric data to explore possible scenarios of drumlin growth, evolution and interaction. We study the metrics of the size and spacing of 36 222 drumlins, distributed amongst 71 flow‐sets, left behind by the former British‐Irish Ice Sheet, and ask whether behaviour common to other bedform phenomena can be derived through statistical analysis. Through characterizing and analysing the shape of the probability distribution functions of size and spacing metrics for each flow‐set we argue that drumlins grow, and potentially migrate, as they evolve leading to pattern coarsening. Furthermore, our findings add support to the notion that no upper limit to drumlin size exists, and to the idea that perpetual coarsening could occur if given sufficient time. We propose that the framework of process and patterning commonly applied to non‐glacial bedforms is potentially powerful for understanding drumlin formation and for deciphering glacial landscapes. © 2017 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.  相似文献   
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