The maximum expected earthquake magnitudes in different future time intervals of six seismotectonic zones of Iran and its surroundings     

Mona Salamat  Gert Zöller  Mehdi Zare  Mortaza Amini 《Journal of Seismology》2018,22(6):1485-1498

One of the crucial components in seismic hazard analysis is the estimation of the maximum earthquake magnitude and associated uncertainty. In the present study, the uncertainty related to the maximum expected magnitude μ is determined in terms of confidence intervals for an imposed level of confidence. Previous work by Salamat et al. (Pure Appl Geophys 174:763-777, 2017) shows the divergence of the confidence interval of the maximum possible magnitude m_max for high levels of confidence in six seismotectonic zones of Iran. In this work, the maximum expected earthquake magnitude μ is calculated in a predefined finite time interval and imposed level of confidence. For this, we use a conceptual model based on a doubly truncated Gutenberg-Richter law for magnitudes with constant b-value and calculate the posterior distribution of μ for the time interval T_f in future. We assume a stationary Poisson process in time and a Gutenberg-Richter relation for magnitudes. The upper bound of the magnitude confidence interval is calculated for different time intervals of 30, 50, and 100 years and imposed levels of confidence α?=?0.5, 0.1, 0.05, and 0.01. The posterior distribution of waiting times T_f to the next earthquake with a given magnitude equal to 6.5, 7.0, and 7.5 are calculated in each zone. In order to find the influence of declustering, we use the original and declustered version of the catalog. The earthquake catalog of the territory of Iran and surroundings are subdivided into six seismotectonic zones Alborz, Azerbaijan, Central Iran, Zagros, Kopet Dagh, and Makran. We assume the maximum possible magnitude m_max?=?8.5 and calculate the upper bound of the confidence interval of μ in each zone. The results indicate that for short time intervals equal to 30 and 50 years and imposed levels of confidence 1???α?=?0.95 and 0.90, the probability distribution of μ is around μ?=?7.16???8.23 in all seismic zones.  相似文献   

Time-dependent seismic hazard analysis for the Greater Tehran and surrounding areas   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Seyed?Mostafa?Jalalalhosseini  Hamid?ZafaraniEmail authorView author&#;s OrcID profile  Mehdi?Zare 《Journal of Seismology》2018,22(1):187-215

This study presents a time-dependent approach for seismic hazard in Tehran and surrounding areas. Hazard is evaluated by combining background seismic activity, and larger earthquakes may emanate from fault segments. Using available historical and paleoseismological data or empirical relation, the recurrence time and maximum magnitude of characteristic earthquakes for the major faults have been explored. The Brownian passage time (BPT) distribution has been used to calculate equivalent fictitious seismicity rate for major faults in the region. To include ground motion uncertainty, a logic tree and five ground motion prediction equations have been selected based on their applicability in the region. Finally, hazard maps have been presented.  相似文献   

Recent development of the earthquake strong motion-intensity catalog and intensity prediction equations for Iran     

Mehdi Zare 《Journal of Seismology》2017,21(4):591-613

This study aims to develop a new earthquake strong motion-intensity catalog as well as intensity prediction equations for Iran based on the available data. For this purpose, all the sites which had both recorded strong motion and intensity values throughout the region were first searched. Then, the data belonging to the 306 identified sites were processed, and the results were compiled as a new strong motion-intensity catalog. Based on this new catalog, two empirical equations between the values of intensity and the ground motion parameters (GMPs) for the Iranian earthquakes were calculated. At the first step, earthquake “intensity” was considered as a function of five independent GMPs including “Log (PHA),” “moment magnitude (M_W),” “distance to epicenter,” “site type,” and “duration,” and a multiple stepwise regression was calculated. Regarding the correlations between the parameters and the effectiveness coefficients of the predictors, the Log (PHA) was recognized as the most effective parameter on the earthquake “intensity,” while the parameter “site type” was removed from the equations since it was determines as the least significant variable. Then, at the second step, a simple ordinary least squares (OLS) regression was fitted only between the parameters intensity and the Log (PHA) which resulted in more over/underestimated intensity values comparing to the results of the multiple intensity-GMPs regression. However, for rapid response purposes, the simple OLS regression may be more useful comparing to the multiple regression due to its data availability and simplicity. In addition, according to 50 selected earthquakes, an empirical relation between the macroseismic intensity (I₀) and M_W was developed.  相似文献   

Intensity measures for the seismic response evaluation of buried steel pipelines under near-field pulse-like ground motions     

Kiani  Alireza  Torabi  Mehdi  Mirhosseini  S. Mohammad 《地震工程与工程振动(英文版)》2019,18(4):917-931

Ground-motion Intensity Measures (IMs) are used to quantify the strength of ground motions and evaluate the response of structures. IMs act as a link between seismic demand and seismic hazard analysis and therefore, have a key role in performance-based earthquake engineering. Many studies have been carried out on the determination of suitable IMs in terms of efficiency, sufficiency and scaling robustness. The majority of these investigations focused on ordinary structures such as buildings and bridges, and only a few were about buried pipelines. In the current study, the optimal IMs for predicting the seismic demand of continuous buried steel pipelines under near-field pulse-like ground motion records is investigated. Incremental dynamic analysis is performed using twenty ground motion records. Using the results of the regression analysis, the optimality of 23 potential IMs are studied. It is concluded that specific energy density (SED) followed by \(\sqrt {VSI[{\omega _1}(PGD + RM{S_d})]} \) are the optimal IMs based on efficiency, sufficiency and scaling robustness for seismic response evaluation of buried pipelines under near-field ground motions.

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Palaeoecological,sedimentological and stratigraphical insights into microbially induced sedimentary structures of the lower Cambrian successions of Iran     

Aram Bayet-Goll  Mehdi Daraei 《Sedimentology》2020,67(6):3199-3235

Micro-organisms producing microbially induced sedimentary structures, particularly epibenthic cyanobacteria, are not facies-dependent and could flourish in any environment if appropriate ecological conditions were provided. Hence, the changes in environmental parameters are the controlling factors on ecological tolerance of the producers. This study on the lower Cambrian successions of the Lalun Formation in Central Iran shows that paralic environments reacted differently to changes in parameters such as river and tide energy, palaeo-topography, the rate of sediment supply and fluctuations in sea-level, even though all were characterized by sandy substrates suitable for the development of microbially induced sedimentary structures. Therefore, the abundance and preservation of microbially induced sedimentary structures varied in the different paralic environments. From a sequence stratigraphic viewpoint, this study demonstrates that erosional discontinuities lacked the conditions required for the substrate stabilization by microbial communities. The distribution, size and type of microbially induced sedimentary structures within high frequency cycles generally follow the trends of changes in vertical facies stacking patterns. Within systems tracts, the pattern, morphological diversity and size of microbially induced sedimentary structures are not dependent on the type of systems tract, but on the type of depositional system developed such as delta, incised valley, coastal plain, estuaries and shoreline to shelf systems. Generally, estuarine and peritidal carbonates record an increase in the development of mat colonization during the transgressive systems tract, owing to decreased sedimentation rate as well as extended shallow water habitats. In contrast, the existence of microbially induced sedimentary structures depends on the pattern of shoreline shift in depositional systems developed during the highstand systems tract, such as open coast tidal flat and delta environments. If a shoreline regression was continuous (depositional trend and stacking pattern are a set of high frequency cycles), a greater increase in the aggradational component than the progradational component would cause intensified destructive processes hindering the development of microbial communities.  相似文献   

Spatial–temporal analysis of the shoreline change rate using automatic computation and geospatial tools along the Tetouan coast in Morocco     

Benkhattab  Fatima Zahra  Hakkou  Mounir  Bagdanavičiūtė  Ingrida  Mrini  Abdelmounim El  Zagaoui  Hafid  Rhinane  Hassan  Maanan  Mehdi 《Natural Hazards》2020,104(1):519-536

Natural Hazards - Analyzing and understanding coastline variability and dynamics are important for scientists and policy-makers. This study investigates the long-term process of shoreline change...  相似文献   

Dynamic Positioning System Design for A Marine Vessel with Unknown Dynamics Subject to External Disturbances Including Wave Effect     

Hosseinnajad  Alireza  Loueipour  Mehdi 《中国海洋工程》2020,34(5):651-663

China Ocean Engineering - In this paper, a new control system is proposed for dynamic positioning (DP) of marine vessels with unknown dynamics and subject to external disturbances. The control...  相似文献   

Prediction of scour depth at piers with debris accumulation effects using linear genetic programming     

Mehdi Jamei 《Marine Georesources & Geotechnology》2020,38(4):468-479

Abstract

Exact evaluation of scour depth around piers under debris accumulation is crucial for the safe design of pier structures. Experimental studies on scouring around pier bridges with debris accumulation have been conducted to estimate the maximum scour depth using various empirical relationships. However, due to the oversimplification of a complex process, the proposed relationships have not always been able to accurately predict the pier scour depth. This research proposes linear genetic programming (LGP) approach as an extension of the genetic programming to predict the scour depth around bridge piers. Among the artificial intelligence techniques, LGP and locally weighted linear regression (LWLR) models have not been used to predict the scour depth at bridge piers. Literature experimental data were collected and used to develop the models. The performance of the LGP method was compared with gene-expression programming, LWLR, multilinear regression and empirical equations using rigorous statistical criteria. The correlation coefficient (R) and the root mean squared error (RMSE) were (R?=?0.962, RMSE =0.31) and (R?=?0.885, RMSE =0.542) for the LGP and LWLR, respectively. The results demonstrated the superiority of the LGP method for increasing the accuracy of the predicted scour depth in comparison with the other models.  相似文献   

Internal inlet for wave generation and absorption treatment   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Zouhaier Hafsia  Mehdi Ben HadjHedi Lamloumi  Khlifa Maalel 《Coastal Engineering》2009

A new method of implementing, in two-dimensional (2-D) Navier–Stokes equations, a numerical internal wave generation in the finite volume formulation is developed. To our knowledge, the originality of this model is on the specification of an internal inlet velocity defined as a source line for the generation of linear and non-linear waves. The use of a single cell to represent the source line and its transformation to an internal boundary condition proved to be an interesting alternative to the common procedure of adding a mass source term to the continuity equation within a multi-cell rectangular region. Given the reduction of the source domain to a one-dimensional region, this simple new type of source introduced less perturbation than the 2-D source type. This model was successfully implemented in the PHOENICS code (Parabolic Hyperbolic Or Elliptic Numerical Integration Code Series). In addition, the volume of fluid (VOF) fraction was used to describe the free surface displacements. A friction force term was added to the momentum transport equation in the vertical direction, in order to enhance wave damping, within relatively limited number of cells representing the sponge layers at the open boundaries. For monochromatic wave, propagating on constant water depth, numerical and analytical results showed good agreements for free surface profiles and vertical distribution of velocity components. For solitary wave simulation, the wave shape and velocity were preserved; while, small discrepancy in the tailing edge of the free surface profiles was observed. The suitability of this new numerical wave generation model for a two source lines extension was investigated and proven to be innovative. The comparisons between numerical, analytical and experimental results showed that the height of the merging waves was correctly reproduced and that the reflected waves do not interact with the source lines.  相似文献   

On integral approach to regional gravity field modelling from satellite gradiometric data     

Mehdi Eshagh 《Acta Geophysica》2011,59(1):29-54

Solution of the gradiometric boundary value problems leads to three integral formulas. If we are satisfied with obtaining a smooth solution for the Earth’s gravity field, we can use the formulas in regional gravity field modelling. In such a case, satellite gradiometric data are integrated on a sphere at satellite level and continued downward to the disturbing potential (geoid) at sea level simultaneously. This paper investigates the gravity field modelling from a full tensor of gravity at satellite level. It studies the truncation bias of the integrals as well as the filtering of noise of data. Numerical studies show that by integrating T _zz with 1 mE noise and in a cap size of 7°, the geoid can be recovered with an error of 12 cm after the filtering process. Similarly, the errors of the recovered geoids from T _xz,yz and T _{xx-yy, 2xy} are 13 and 21 cm, respectively.  相似文献