Implementation of a hybrid MLP-FFA model for water level prediction of Lake Egirdir,Turkey     

Mohammad?Ali?GhorbaniEmail author  Ravinesh?C.?Deo  Vahid?Karimi  Zaher?Mundher?Yaseen  Ozlem?Terzi 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2018,32(6):1683-1697

The predictive ability of a hybrid model integrating the Firefly Algorithm (FFA), as a heuristic optimization tool with the Multilayer Perceptron (MLP-FFA) algorithm for the prediction of water level in Lake Egirdir, Turkey, is investigated. The accuracy of the hybrid MLP-FFA model is then evaluated against the standalone MLP-based model developed with the Levenberg–Marquadt optimization scheme applied for in the backpropagation-based learning process. To develop and investigate the veracity of the proposed hybrid MLP-FFA model, monthly time scale water level data for 56 years (1961–2016) are applied to train and test the hybrid model. The input combinations of the standalone and the hybrid predictive models are determined in accordance with the Average Mutual Information computed from the historical water level (training) data; generating four statistically significant lagged combinations of historical data to be adopted for the 1-month forecasting of lake water level. The proposed hybrid MLP-FFA model is evaluated with statistical score metrics: Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency, root mean square and mean absolute error, Wilmott’s Index and Taylor diagram developed in the testing phase. The analysis of the results showed that the hybrid MLP–FFA4 model (where 4 months of lagged combinations of lake water level data are utilized) performed more accurately than the standalone MLP4 model. For the fully optimized hybrid (MLP-FFA4) model evaluated in the testing phase, the Willmott’s Index was approximately 0.999 relative to 0.988 (MLP 4) and the root mean square error was approximately 0.029 m and compared to 0.102 m. Moreover, the inter-comparison of the forecasted and the observed data with various other performance metrics (including the Taylor diagram) verified the robustness of the proposed hybrid MLP-FFA4 model over the standalone MLP4 model applied in the problem of forecasting lake water level prediction in the current semi-arid region in Turkey.  相似文献   

Compositional characteristics and geodynamic significance of late Miocene volcanic rocks associated with the Chah Zard epithermal gold–silver deposit,southwest Yazd,Iran          下载免费PDF全文

Majid Ghaderi  Mohammad Hashem Emami  Sebastien Meffre  Vadim Kamenetsky  Jocelyn McPhie  Khin Zaw  Rasoul Nasiri Bezenjani 《Island Arc》2018,27(1)

Whole‐rock geochemical and Sr–Nd isotopic data are presented for late Miocene volcanic rocks associated with the Chah Zard epithermal Au–Ag deposit in the Urumieh‐Dokhtar Magmatic Arc (UDMA), Iran, to investigate the magma source, petrogenesis and the geodynamic evolution of the study area. The Chah Zard andesitic to rhyolitic volcanic rocks are characterized by significant Large Ion Lithophile Element (LILE) and Light Rare Earth Element (LREE) enrichment coupled with High Field Strength Element (HFSE) depletion. Our geochemical data indicate an adakitic‐like signature for the volcanic rocks (e.g. SiO₂ > 62 wt%, Al₂O₃ > 15 wt%, MgO < 1.5 wt%, Sr/Y > 70, La/Yb > 35, Yb < 1 ppm, and Y < 18 ppm, and no significant Eu anomalies), distinguishing them from the other volcanic rocks of the UDMA. The Chah Zard volcanic rocks have similar Sr and Nd isotopic compositions; the ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr(i) ratios range from 0.704 902 to 0.705 093 and the ε_Nd(i) values are from +2.33 to +2.70. However, the rhyolite porphyry represents the final stage of magmatism in the area and has a relatively high ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratio (0.705 811). Our data suggest that the andesitic magmas are from a heterogeneous source and likely to result from partial melting of a metasomatized mantle wedge associated with a mixture of subducted oceanic crust and sediment. These melts subsequently underwent fractional crystallization along with minor amounts of crustal assimilation. Our study is consistent with the model that the volcanic host rocks to epithermal gold mineralization in the UDMA are genetically related to late Miocene Neo‐Tethyan slab break‐off beneath Central Iran.  相似文献   

Fault slip and identification of the second fault plane in the Varzeghan earthquake doublet     

Samar Amini  Roland Roberts  Mohammad Raeesi  Zaher Hossein Shomali  Bjorn Lund  Zoya Zarifi 《Journal of Seismology》2018,22(4):815-831

An intraplate earthquake doublet, with 11-min delay between the events, devastated the city of Varzeghan in northwestern Iran on August 11, 2012. The first Mw 6.5 strike-slip earthquake, which occurred after more than 200 years of low seismicity, was followed by an Mw 6.4 oblique thrust event at an epicentral separation of about 6 km. While the first event can be associated with a distinct surface rupture, the absence of a surface fault trace and no clear aftershock signature makes it challenging to identify the fault plane of the second event. We use teleseismic body wave inversion to deduce the slip distribution in the first event. Using both P and SH waves stabilize the inversion and we further constrain the result with the surface rupture extent and the aftershock distribution. The obtained slip pattern shows two distinct slip patches with dissimilar slip directions where aftershocks avoid high-slip areas. Using the estimated slip for the first event, we calculate the induced Coulomb stress change on the nodal planes of the second event and find a preference for higher Coulomb stress on the N-S nodal plane. Assuming a simple slip model for the second event, we estimate the combined Coulomb stress changes from the two events on the focal planes of the largest aftershocks. We find that 90% of the aftershocks show increased Coulomb stress on one of their nodal planes when the N-S plane of the second event is assumed to be the correct fault plane.  相似文献   

Performance evaluation of WAVEWATCH III model in the Persian Gulf using different wind resources     

Mohammad Hossein Kazeminezhad  Seyed Mostafa Siadatmousavi 《Ocean Dynamics》2017,67(7):839-855

The third-generation wave model, WAVEWATCH III, was employed to simulate bulk wave parameters in the Persian Gulf using three different wind sources: ERA-Interim, CCMP, and GFS-Analysis. Different formulations for whitecapping term and the energy transfer from wind to wave were used, namely the Tolman and Chalikov (J Phys Oceanogr 26:497–518, 1996), WAM cycle 4 (BJA and WAM4), and Ardhuin et al. (J Phys Oceanogr 40(9):1917–1941, 2010) (TEST405 and TEST451 parameterizations) source term packages. The obtained results from numerical simulations were compared to altimeter-derived significant wave heights and measured wave parameters at two stations in the northern part of the Persian Gulf through statistical indicators and the Taylor diagram. Comparison of the bulk wave parameters with measured values showed underestimation of wave height using all wind sources. However, the performance of the model was best when GFS-Analysis wind data were used. In general, when wind veering from southeast to northwest occurred, and wind speed was high during the rotation, the model underestimation of wave height was severe. Except for the Tolman and Chalikov (J Phys Oceanogr 26:497–518, 1996) source term package, which severely underestimated the bulk wave parameters during stormy condition, the performances of other formulations were practically similar. However, in terms of statistics, the Ardhuin et al. (J Phys Oceanogr 40(9):1917–1941, 2010) source terms with TEST405 parameterization were the most successful formulation in the Persian Gulf when compared to in situ and altimeter-derived observations.  相似文献   

SOM-DRASTIC: using self-organizing map for evaluating groundwater potential to pollution     

Farshad?Rezaei  Mohammad?R.?Ahmadzadeh  Hamid?R.?SafaviEmail author 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2017,31(8):1941-1956

Groundwater is considered as the most important water resource, especially in arid and semi-arid regions, so it is crucial to impede this source of water to be contaminated. One of the most common methods to assess groundwater vulnerability is DRASTIC method. However, the subjectivity existing in defining DRASTIC weights and ratings as well as inadaptability of the parameters involved in this method with special geology, hydrogeology, land use and climatic conditions have urged researchers to modify this method. In this paper, a new method combining a special type of the neural networks called Self-Organizing Map (SOM) and the traditional DRASTIC model resulting in the hybrid SOM-DRASTIC model is applied to modify and improve DRASTIC Model. The traditional DRASTIC method holds a summation among all negative effects of different factors contributing to vulnerability, while the proposed hybrid method is able of classifying the groundwater vulnerability and deriving the real relation existing between the DRASTIC parameters as the inputs and the vulnerability class as the output of the method. The vulnerability assessment process was performed on the Zayandeh-Rud river basin aquifers in Iran. The SOM-DRASTIC identified the northern parts of the study area as the most vulnerable areas with a drastically fractured structure, while the traditional DRASTIC ranked the western parts as the most vulnerable regions with a high rate of net recharge. The results demonstrate that the proposed method can be used by managers and decision-makers as an alternative robust tool for vulnerability-based classification and land use planning.  相似文献   

Effect of ground motion selection methods on seismic collapse fragility of RC frame buildings   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

Mohammad E. Koopaee  Rajesh P. Dhakal  Gregory MacRae 《地震工程与结构动力学》2017,46(11):1875-1892

Variation in the seismic collapse fragility of reinforced concrete frame buildings predicted using different ground motion (GM) selection methods is investigated in this paper. To simulate the structural collapse, a fiber‐element modelling approach with path‐dependent cyclic nonlinear material models that account for concrete confinement and crushing, reinforcement buckling as well as low cycle fatigue is used. The adopted fiber analysis approach has been found to reliably predict the loss in vertical load carrying capacity of structural components in addition to the sidesway mode of collapse due to destabilizing P–Δ moments at large inelastic deflections. Multiple stripe analysis is performed by conducting response history analyses at various hazard levels to generate the collapse fragility curves. To select GMs at various hazard levels, two alternatives of uniform hazard spectrum (UHS), conditional mean spectrum (CMS) and generalized conditional intensity measure (GCIM) are used. Collapse analyses are repeated based on structural periods corresponding to initial un‐cracked stiffness and cracked stiffness of the frame members. A return period‐based intensity measure is then introduced and applied in estimating collapse fragility of frame buildings. In line with the results of previous research, it is shown that the choice of structural period significantly affects the collapse fragility predictions. Among the GM selection methods used in this study, GCIM and CMS methods predict similar collapse fragilities for the case study building investigated herein, and UHS provides the most conservative prediction of the collapse capacity, with approximately 40% smaller median collapse capacity compared to the CMS method. The results confirm that collapse probability prediction of buildings using UHS offers a higher level of conservatism in comparison to the other selection methods. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Rehabilitation of earthquake damaged external RC beam‐column joints by joint enlargement using prestressed steel angles          下载免费PDF全文

Jalil Shafaei  Abdollah Hosseini  Mohammad Sadegh Marefat  Jason M. Ingham 《地震工程与结构动力学》2017,46(2):291-316

The effectiveness of a rehabilitation method based on joint enlargement using prestressed steel angles to enhance the seismic behavior of damaged external reinforced concrete beam‐column joints was experimentally investigated. Three half‐scale joints having either non‐seismic or seismic reinforcement details were tested both before and after rehabilitation by applying lateral cyclic loading of increasing amplitudes. Two defects were considered for the two non‐seismic units, being the absence of transverse steel hoops and insufficient bond capacity of beam bottom steel reinforcing bars in the joint panel zone. The damaged specimens were rehabilitated by injecting epoxy grout into existing cracks and installing stiffened steel angles at the re‐entrant corners of the beam‐column joint, both above and below the beam, that were mounted and held in place using prestressed high‐tensile strength bars. The test results indicated that the seismic performance of the rehabilitated specimens in terms of strength, stiffness, and ductility was fully recovered and comparable with the performance of the seismically detailed specimen. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Predicting seismic permanent displacement of soil walls under surcharge based on limit analysis approach     

Mohammad Mahdi Aminpour  Mohammad Maleki  Ali Ghanbari 《地震工程与工程振动(英文版)》2018,17(4):747-759

Seismic permanent displacement of the soil walls plays an important role in design of these structures. Due to the increase in growth of urban areas and the limitations in use of flat grounds, many structures are built near slopes and retaining walls. During earthquakes, these structures can apply an additional surcharge on the wall. The intensity and location of the surcharge is of considerable importance on the seismic displacements of the soil wall. In this study, by using the limit analysis and upper bound theorem, seismic permanent displacement of the soil wall under surcharge has been analyzed. Thus, a formulation is presented for calculating the yield acceleration and seismic displacement for different surcharge conditions. The effect of seismic acceleration, surcharge intensity, its location and soil properties is investigated. A parameter called the “displacement coefficient” is proposed, and is a potential modification for Newmark’s sliding-block method.  相似文献   

Nonlinear modeling of cyclic response of RC beam–column joints reinforced by plain bars     

Mahdi Adibi  Mohammad S. Marefat  Reza Allahvirdizadeh 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2018,16(11):5529-5556

Experience of previous earthquakes shows that a considerable portion of buildings reinforced with plain bars sustain relatively large damages especially at the beam–column joints where the damages are mostly caused by either diagonal shear cracks or intersectional cracks caused by bar slippage. While previous works mainly focus on shear failure mode, in this study, the emphasis is placed on slip based cracks as the dominant failure mode. A systematic procedure is introduced to predict the dominant failure mode at the joint which is based on the dimensional properties, reinforcement details, and axial and shear load at the joint. In addition, a relatively simple and efficient nonlinear model is proposed to simulate pre- and post-elastic behavior of the joints which fail under bar slippage mode. In this model, beam and column components are represented by linear elastic elements, dimensions of the joint panel are defined by rigid elements, and effect of slip is taken into account by a nonlinear rotational spring at the end of the beam. The proposed method is validated by experimental results for both internal and external joints .  相似文献   

New magnitude scaling relations for earthquake early warning in the Alborz region,Iran     

Mohammad Sasani  Mohammad Reza Ghayamghamian  Anooshiravan Ansari 《Acta Geophysica》2018,66(6):1375-1382

Rapid magnitude estimation relations for earthquake early warning systems in the Alborz region have been developed based on the initial first seconds of the P-wave arrival. For this purpose, a total of 717 accelerograms recorded by the Building and Housing Research Center in the Alborz region with the magnitude (M_w) range of 4.8–6.5 in the period between 1995 and 2013 were employed. Average ground motion period (\( \tau_{\text{c}} \)) and peak displacement (\( P_{\text{d}} \)) in different time windows from the P-wave arrival were calculated, and their relation with magnitude was examined. Four earthquakes that were excluded from the analysis process were used to validate the results, and the estimated magnitudes were found to be in good agreement with the observed ones. The results show that using the proposed relations for the Alborz region, earthquake magnitude could be estimated with acceptable accuracy even after 1 s of the P-wave arrival.  相似文献