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181.
The Gulf of Finland is an elongated estuary located in the north-eastern extremity of the Baltic Sea. This semi-enclosed sea-area is subject to heavy sea traffic, and is one of the main risk areas for oil accidents in the Baltic. The continuous development and validation of operational particle drift and oil-spill forecasting systems is thus seen to be essential for this sea-area.Here, the results of a three-day drift experiment in May 2003 are discussed. The field studies were performed using GPS-positioned surface floating buoys. The aim of this paper is to evaluate how well models can reproduce the drift of these buoys. Model simulations, both in forecast and hindcast modes, were carried out by three different 3D hydrodynamic models, the results of which are evaluated by comparing the calculated drifts with observations. These models were forced by HIRLAM (High Resolution Limited Area Model) and ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) meteorological forecast fields.The simulated drift of the buoys showed a good agreement with observations even when, during the study period, a rapidly-changing wind situation was observed to affect the investigation area; in this situation the winds turned about 100 degrees in half an hour. In such a case it is a very complicated task to forecast the drifters' routes: there is a need to regularly update the meteorological forcing fields and to use these regularly-updated fields throughout the simulations. It is furthermore recommended that forecasts should be made using several circulation models and several meteorological forecasts, in order to get an overview of the accuracy of the forecasted drifts and related differences in between the forecasts.  相似文献   
182.
183.
The distribution and origin of shallow gas seeps in the vicinity of the Posolsky Bank in Lake Baikal were studied based on the integration of detailed seismic, multibeam, and hydro-acoustic water-column investigations. In all, 65 acoustic flares have been detected on the Posolsky Fault scarp near the crest of the bank and in a similar, nearby setting at water depths of ?43 to ?332?m. The seismic data reveal BSRs (bottom-simulating reflectors) occurring up to water depths of ?300?m. Calculations involving hydrate stability, heat flow, and topographic modulation based on BSR occurrence and multibeam bathymetry enabled prediction of a methane–ethane gas mixture and heat-flow values that would account for gas hydrate stability in the lake sediments under prevailing ambient conditions. These predictions are supported by ground truth data. The findings suggest that seeps concentrated along the crest of the Posolsky Bank are fed mainly by gas coming from below the base of the gas hydrate stability zone, which would migrate updip via permeable stratigraphic pathways beneath the bank. Gas would ultimately be released into the water column where these pathways are cut off by faults.
Figure
Conceptual seep model for the Posolsky Bank, Lake Baikal  相似文献   
184.
Macro- and meiofaunal communities were examined at four geomorphologically distinct sites with different gas- and oil-bearing fluid characteristics in the northern, central and southern basins of Lake Baikal. All sites had elevated concentrations of bicarbonate, nitrate, sulphate and chloride ions in pore fluids, with highest values at the Frolikha vent. Elevated levels of iron ions were found in pore waters of the St. Petersburg methane seep and the Gorevoy Utes oil seep. The chemical composition of pore waters at the Malenky mud volcano was similar to that reported in earlier work. Consistent with published data, the Frolikha vent (northern basin) and the St. Petersburg methane seep (central basin) were characterised by methane of mixed genesis (thermogenic + biogenic), whereas the methane source was mainly thermogenic at the Gorevoy Utes oil seep (central basin) and biogenic at the Malenky mud volcano (southern basin). In contrast to marine seep ecosystems, the macrofauna was dominated only by amphipods, giant planarians and oligochaetes, whereas bivalves were absent; the meiofauna was similar to its marine counterpart, being dominated by nematodes, cyclops, harpacticoids and ostracods. A statistically significant positive relationship was revealed between faunal abundance and the availability of bacterial mats on seep sediments. Moreover, ANOVA tests showed significant increases in both meiozoobenthic and macrozoobenthic densities at “hot spot” vent/seep sites relative to discharge-free reference sites. The isotopic composition of carbon and nitrogen at various trophic levels of these benthic vent/seep communities was found to differ markedly from that reported by earlier studies for the pelagic and other benthic food webs in Lake Baikal. As in marine seeps, the macrofauna had variable isotopic signatures. Light δ13C and δ15N values suggest the utilization of chemosynthetically fixed and/or methane-derived organic matter. By contrast, the heavy δ13C signatures of some mobile amphipods likely reflect consumption of photosynthetically derived carbon. These findings would at least partly explain why Lake Baikal is a notable outlier in global temperature–biodiversity patterns, exhibiting the highest biodiversity of any lake worldwide but at an extremely cold average temperature.  相似文献   
185.
This paper presents a selective review of applications of data on seawater light scattering for the study and monitoring of marine particles. Particular emphasis is placed on ocean waters and the seas surrounding Russia, where earlier studies by the author with his coworkers are little known because published mostly in Russian. In those assessments, methods of solving the inverse problem of seawater light scattering have been developed. Low-parametric models of optical properties were created by means of statistical analyses of experimental data, solving the inverse problem and comparing results derived from optical methods with those based on particle counts. Estimates of the volume and mass concentrations of suspended matter and its components were derived from light-scattering data for different regions. The potential of using optical methods for assessing spatiotemporal variability in suspended matter supply, propagation, and distribution is also considered.  相似文献   
186.
Using the high-resolution spectrometer SPI on board the International Gamma-Ray Astrophysics Laboratory ( INTEGRAL ), we search for a spectral line produced by a dark matter (DM) particle with a mass in the range  40 keV < M DM < 14 MeV  , decaying in the DM halo of the Milky Way. To distinguish the DM decay line from numerous instrumental lines found in the SPI background spectrum, we study the dependence of the intensity of the line signal on the offset of the SPI pointing from the direction toward the Galactic Centre. After a critical analysis of the uncertainties of the DM density profile in the inner Galaxy, we find that the intensity of the DM decay line should decrease by at least a factor of 3 when the offset from the Galactic Centre increases from 0° to 180°. We find that such a pronounced variation of the line flux across the sky is not observed for any line, detected with a significance higher than 3σ in the SPI background spectrum. Possible DM decay origin is not ruled out only for the unidentified spectral lines, having low (∼3σ) significance or coinciding in position with the instrumental ones. In the energy interval from 20 keV to 7 MeV, we derive restrictions on the DM decay line flux, implied by the (non-)detection of the DM decay line. For a particular DM candidate, the sterile neutrino of mass M DM, we derive a bound on the mixing angle.  相似文献   
187.
We derive constraints on the parameters of the radiatively decaying dark matter (DM) particle, using the XMM–Newton EPIC spectra of the Andromeda galaxy (M31). Using the observations of the outer (5–13 arcmin) parts of M31, we improve the existing constraints. For the case of sterile neutrino DM, combining our constraints with the latest computation of abundances of sterile neutrinos in the Dodelson–Widrow (DW) scenario, we obtain the lower mass limit   m s < 4 keV  , which is stronger than the previous one   m s < 6 keV  , obtained recently by Asaka, Laine & Shaposhnikov. Comparing this limit with the most recent results on Lyman α forest analysis of Viel et al.  ( m s > 5.6 keV  ), we argue that the scenario in which all the DM is produced via the DW mechanism is ruled out. We discuss, however, other production mechanisms and note that the sterile neutrino remains a viable candidate for DM, either warm or cold.  相似文献   
188.
Seismic source characteristics of low-yield (0.5–5 kt) underground explosions are inferred from hydrodynamic simulations using a granite material model on high-performance (parallel) computers. We use a non-linear rheological model for granite calibrated to historical near-field nuclear test data. Equivalent elastic P-wave source spectra are derived from the simulated hydrodynamic response using reduced velocity potentials. Source spectra and parameters are compared with the models of Mueller and Murphy (Bull Seism Soc Am 61:1675–1692, 1971, hereafter MM71) and Denny and Johnson (Explosion source phenomenology, pp 1–24, 1991, hereafter DJ91). The source spectra inferred from the simulations of different yields at normal scaled depth-of-burial (SDOB) match the MM71 spectra reasonably well. For normally buried nuclear explosions, seismic moments are larger for the hydrodynamic simulations than MM71 (by 25 %) and for DJ91 (by over a factor of 2), however, the scaling of moment with yield across this low-yield range is consistent for our calculations and the two models. Spectra from our simulations show higher corner frequencies at the lower end of the 0.5–5.0 kt yield range and stronger variation with yield than the MM71 and DJ91 models predict. The spectra from our simulations have additional energy above the corner frequency, probably related to non-linear near-source effects, but at high frequencies the spectral slopes agree with the f ?2 predictions of MM71. Simulations of nuclear explosions for a range of SDOB from 0.5 to 3.9 show stronger variations in the seismic moment than predicted by the MM71 and DJ91 models. Chemical explosions are found to generate higher moments by a factor of about two compared to nuclear explosions of the same yield in granite and at normal depth-of-burial, broadly consistent with comparisons of nuclear and chemical shots at the US Nevada Test Site (Denny, Proceeding of symposium on the non-proliferation experiment, Rockville, Maryland, 1994). For all buried explosions, the region of permanent deformation and material damage is not spherical but extends along the free surface above and away from the source. The effect of damage induced by a normally buried nuclear explosion on seismic radiation is explored by comparing the motions from hydrodynamic simulations with those for point-source elastic Green’s functions. Results show that radiation emerging at downward takeoff angles appears to be dominated by the expected isotropic source contribution, while at shallower angles the motions are complicated by near-surface damage and cannot be represented with the addition of a simple secondary compensated linear vector dipole point source above the shot point. The agreement and differences of simulated source spectra with the MM71 and DJ91 models motivates the use of numerical simulations to understand observed motions and investigate seismic source features for underground explosions in various emplacement media and conditions, including non-linear rheological effects such as material strength and porosity.  相似文献   
189.
Turbulent air-sea interactions coupled with the surface wave dynamics remain a challenging problem. The needs to include this kind of interaction into the coupled environmental, weather and climate models motivate the development of a simplified approximation of the complex and strongly nonlinear interaction processes. This study proposes a quasi-linear model of wind-wave coupling. It formulates the approach and derives the model equations. The model is verified through a set of laboratory (direct measurements of an airflow by the particle image velocimetry (PIV) technique) and numerical (a direct numerical simulation (DNS) technique) experiments. The experiments support the central model assumption that the flow velocity field averaged over an ensemble of turbulent fluctuations is smooth and does not demonstrate flow separation from the crests of the waves. The proposed quasi-linear model correctly recovers the measured characteristics of the turbulent boundary layer over the waved water surface.  相似文献   
190.
Despite impressive progress in the development and application of electromagnetic (EM) deterministic inverse schemes to map the 3-D distribution of electrical conductivity within the Earth, there is one question which remains poorly addressed—uncertainty quantification of the recovered conductivity models. Apparently, only an inversion based on a statistical approach provides a systematic framework to quantify such uncertainties. The Metropolis–Hastings (M–H) algorithm is the most popular technique for sampling the posterior probability distribution that describes the solution of the statistical inverse problem. However, all statistical inverse schemes require an enormous amount of forward simulations and thus appear to be extremely demanding computationally, if not prohibitive, if a 3-D set up is invoked. This urges development of fast and scalable 3-D modelling codes which can run large-scale 3-D models of practical interest for fractions of a second on high-performance multi-core platforms. But, even with these codes, the challenge for M–H methods is to construct proposal functions that simultaneously provide a good approximation of the target density function while being inexpensive to be sampled. In this paper we address both of these issues. First we introduce a variant of the M–H method which uses information about the local gradient and Hessian of the penalty function. This, in particular, allows us to exploit adjoint-based machinery that has been instrumental for the fast solution of deterministic inverse problems. We explain why this modification of M–H significantly accelerates sampling of the posterior probability distribution. In addition we show how Hessian handling (inverse, square root) can be made practicable by a low-rank approximation using the Lanczos algorithm. Ultimately we discuss uncertainty analysis based on stochastic inversion results. In addition, we demonstrate how this analysis can be performed within a deterministic approach. In the second part, we summarize modern trends in the development of efficient 3-D EM forward modelling schemes with special emphasis on recent advances in the integral equation approach.  相似文献   
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