Adaptation to an uncertain climate change: cost benefit analysis and robust decision making for dam dimensioning     

Hypatia Nassopoulos  Patrice Dumas  Stéphane Hallegatte 《Climatic change》2012,114(3-4):497-508

Climate models project large changes in rainfall, but disagree on their magnitude and sign. The consequences of this uncertainty on optimal dam dimensioning is assessed for a small mountainous catchment in Greece. Optimal dam design is estimated using a Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) based on trends in seasonal temperature and precipitations from 19 IPCC-AR4 climate models driven by the the SRES A2 emission scenario. Optimal reservoir volumes are modified by climate change, leading to up to 34% differences between optimal volumes. Contrary to widely-used target-based approaches, the CBA suggests that reduced rainfall should lead to smaller water reservoirs. The resulting change in the Net Present Value (NPV) of water supply is also substantial, ranging from no change to a large 25% loss, depending on the climate model, even assuming optimal adaptation and perfect foresight. In addition, climate change uncertainty can lead to design errors, with a cost ranging from 0.3 to 2.8% of the NPV, depending on site characteristics. This paper proposes to complement the CBA with a robust decision-making approach that focuses on reducing design-error costs. It also suggests that climate change impacts in the water sector may reveal large, that water reservoirs do not always provide a cost-efficient adaptation strategy, and that alternative adaptation strategies based on water conservation and non-conventional water production need to be considered.  相似文献   

Tidal sediment transport versus freshwater flood events in the Konkouré Estuary, Republic of Guinea     

Sylvain Capo  Isabelle Brenon  Aldo Sottolichio  Patrice Castaing  Patrick Le Goulven 《Journal of African Earth Sciences》2009,55(1-2):52

In comparison to their temperate counterparts, sediment processes in tropical estuaries are poorly known and especially in African ones. The hydrodynamics of such environments is controlled by a combination of multiple processes including morphology, salinity, mangrove vegetation, tidal processes, river discharge, settling and erosion of mud and by physico-chemical processes as well as sediment dynamics.The aim of this study is to understand the sediment processes in this transitional stage of the estuary when the balance between river discharges and marine processes is reversing. Studying the hydrodynamics and sediment dynamics of the Konkouré Estuary has recently been made possible thanks to new data on bathymetry, sedimentary cover, salinity, water elevations, and current velocities. The Lower Konkouré is a shallow, funnel shaped, mesotidal mangrove-fringed, tide-dominated estuary, well mixed during low river discharge and stratified during high river discharge. The Konkouré Estuary is turbid despite the small amount of terrestrial input and its residual velocity at the mouth during low river discharges, landwards for two of the three branches, suggests a landward migration by tidal pumping of the suspended particulate matter. A Turbidity Maximum Zone (TMZ) is identified for typical states of the estuary with regard to fluvial and tidal components. Suspended sediment transport during a transitional stage between the rainy and dry seasons is known thanks to current velocity and Suspended Sediment Concentration (SSC) measurements taken in November 2003. The Richardson layered number calculation assesses that turbulence is the major mixing process in the water column, at least during the flood and ebb stages, whereas stratification occurs during the slack water periods. Tidal currents generate bottom erosion, and turbulence mixes the suspended sediment throughout the water column. As a result, a net sediment input is calculated from the western Konkouré outlet for two consecutive tidal cycles. Despite the net water export, almost 300 tons per tide reach the estuary through this outlet, for a moderate river flow.  相似文献   

Partitioning of organic matter in continental margin sediments among density fractions   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

Stuart G. Wakeham  Elizabeth A. Canuel  Elizabeth J. Lerberg  Patrice Mason  Troy P. Sampere  Thomas S. Bianchi 《Marine Chemistry》2009,115(3-4):211-225

Hydrodynamic processes sort and redistribute organic matter (OM) and minerals on continental margins. Density fractionations were conducted on sediments from diverse margins (Mexico margin, Gulf of Mexico, Mississippi River delta, Eel River margin) to investigate the nature, provenance and age of OM among density fractions. Mass, elemental (C and N), lignin, and surface area distributions, as well as stable carbon and radiocarbon isotopic compositions were measured. The lowest density fractions (< 1.6 g cm^− 3) contained the highest organic carbon (OC) (up to 45%) and lignin concentrations (up to 8 mg g^− 1) due to abundant woody debris, whereas high density fractions (> 2.5 g cm^− 3) were OC-poor (%OC < 0.5) mineral material. Most sediment mass was found in the mesodensity fractions (1.6 to 2.5 g cm^− 3) that contained the highest proportion of OC (up to ~ 75%) for each sediment. Stable carbon isotope compositions (δ¹³C − 25.5‰ to − 22.9‰) show terrigenous OC as a significant component of density isolates from the river-dominated sediments (Gulf of Mexico, Mississippi River, and Eel margin), whereas the Mexico margin, least influenced by riverine input, was dominated by autochthonous marine OC (δ¹³C ~ − 21.5‰). Radiocarbon compositions of density fractions indicate significant pre-aged OC (Δ¹⁴C as low as − 900‰) in river-influenced sediments but not on the Mexico margin (Δ¹⁴C > − 200‰). Ratios of vanillic acid to vanillin (Ad/Al)v among lignin oxidation products increase with increasing particle density suggesting variable lignin sources or selective degradation of lignin among the different density fractions.  相似文献   

Mapping sub‐pixel fluvial grain sizes with hyperspatial imagery     

Martin Black  Patrice Carbonneau  Michael Church  Jeff Warburton 《Sedimentology》2014,61(3):691-711

This study presents an investigation of image texture approaches for mapping sub‐pixel fluvial grain‐size features from airborne imagery, allowing for the rapid acquisition of surface sand and coarse fraction (>1·41 mm) grain‐size information. Imagery at 30 mm resolution was acquired over four gravel bars from the Fraser River (British Columbia, Canada). Combined first‐order and second‐order image texture approaches (windowed standard deviation filter and the grey level co‐occurrence matrix) were used. First‐order image texture, through the application of a standard deviation filter and subsequent thresholding was used to detect the presence of surface sand, with optimal accuracy achieved at 91 ± 1·9%. A wide‐ranging parameter space investigation was used to derive optimum parameters for the grey‐level co‐occurrence matrix. Subsequently first‐order and second‐order image textures were used in multiple linear regression to achieve good calibrations with several sub‐pixel grain‐size percentiles; relative error at 1·44%, 3·18%, 6·80% and 10·6% for D₅, D₁₆, D₃₅ and D₅₀, respectively. The larger percentiles of D₈₄ and D₉₅ had relative errors of 24·7% and 29·7%, respectively. The breakdown of calibration precision for larger percentiles is attributed to a ‘pixel averaging effect’. It is concluded that multispectral imagery is not required, because sufficient image texture information can be derived from standard colour imagery. Recommendations are suggested for the application of this method to other localities and data sets, thus reducing exhaustive parameter searches in future studies.  相似文献   

Optimal growth with adaptation to climate change     

Patrice Dumas  Minh Ha-Duong 《Climatic change》2013,117(4):691-710

We find that approximately a quarter of the world’s productive capital could be sensitive to climate; therefore, this capital faces the risk of accelerated obsolescence in a world warming by an average of 0.2 °C per decade. We examine the question of optimal adaptation to climate change in a vintage capital growth model without uncertainty. Along the optimal pathway, adaptation is proactive with an anticipation period of approximately twenty years. While there is additional investment in this scenario compared with a no-climate-change baseline, the overall cost to adapt is low relative to the potential losses from maladaptation. Over-investment in protection capital allows the economy to be consistently well-adapted to climate; thus, such a policy prevents transient maladaptation costs. Sensitivity analysis with an integrated assessment model suggests that costs could be ten times larger if adaptation only begins after vulnerable sectors are impacted.  相似文献   

Suspended sediment transport from the Gironde estuary (France) onto the adjacent continental shelf     

George P. Allen  Patrice Castaing 《Marine Geology》1973,14(5):47-53

Current velocity and suspended sediment concentration measurements at anchor stations in the downstream extremity of the Gironde estuary indicate that during periods of high river discharge, a significant amount of suspended sediment is transported out of the estuary onto the adjacent continental shelf. The vertical profile of the residual (non-tidal) suspended sediment flux is similar to that of the residual current velocity, with a net upstream flux near the bottom and an overlying seaward-directed transport. The overall, depth-integrated result is a net seaward transport of suspended sediment out of the estuary. It appears that this net seaward transport varies directly with tidal amplitude.Aerial photography and water sampling indicate that during high river inflow, the downstream extremity of the turbidity maximum extends onto the continental shelf at ebb tide. The tidal and coastal current patterns of the inlet and inner shelf induce a northward transport of the turbid estuarine water, and at each tidal cycle, a certain amount of suspended sediment leaves the estuary; part of this sediment is deposited in a silt and clay zone on the continental shelf.  相似文献   

Hydraulic routing of extreme floods in a large ungauged river and the estimation of associated uncertainties: a case study of the Damodar River, India     

Joy Sanyal  Patrice Carbonneau  Alexander L. Densmore 《Natural Hazards》2013,66(2):1153-1177

Many developing countries are very vulnerable to flood risk since they are located in climatic zones characterised by extreme precipitation events, such as cyclones and heavy monsoon rainfall. Adequate flood mitigation requires a routing mechanism that can predict the dynamics of flood waves as they travel from source to flood-prone areas, and thus allow for early warning and adequate flood defences. A number of cutting edge hydrodynamic models have been developed in industrialised countries that can predict the advance of flood waves efficiently. These models are not readily applicable to flood prediction in developing countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America, however, due to lack of data, particularly terrain and hydrological data. This paper explores the adaptations and adjustments that are essential to employ hydrodynamic models like LISFLOOD-FP to route very high-magnitude floods by utilising freely available Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission digital elevation model, available topographical maps and sparse network of river gauging stations. A 110 km reach of the lower Damodar River in eastern India was taken as the study area since it suffers from chronic floods caused by water release from upstream dams during intense monsoon storm events. The uncertainty in model outputs, which is likely to increase with coarse data inputs, was quantified in a generalised likelihood uncertainty estimation framework to demonstrate the level of confidence that one can have on such flood routing approaches. Validation results with an extreme flood event of 2009 reveal an encouraging index of agreement of 0.77 with observed records, while most of the observed time series records of a 2007 major flood were found to be within 95 % upper and lower uncertainty bounds of the modelled outcomes.  相似文献   

Why are climate policies of the present decade so crucial for keeping the 2 °C target credible?     

Baptiste Perrissin Fabert  Antonin Pottier  Etienne Espagne  Patrice Dumas  Franck Nadaud 《Climatic change》2014,126(3-4):337-349

Decision-makers have confirmed the long term objective of preventing a temperature increase greater than 2 °C. This paper aims at appraising by means of a cost-benefit analysis whether decision makers’ commitment to meet the 2 °C objective is credible or not. Within the framework of a cost-benefit type integrated assessment model, we consider that the economy faces climate damages with a threshold at 2 °C. We run the model for a broad set of scenarios accounting for the diversity of “worldviews” in the climate debate. For a significant share of scenarios we observe that it is considered optimal to exceed the threshold. Among those “non-compliers” we discriminate ”involuntary non-compliers” who cannot avoid the exceedance due to physical constraint from ”deliberate compliers” for whom the exceedance results from a deliberate costs-benefit analysis. A second result is that the later mitigation efforts begin, the more difficult it becomes to prevent the exceedance. In particular, the number of ”deliberate non-compliers” dramatically increases if mitigation efforts do not start by 2020, and the influx of involuntary non-compliers become overwhelming f efforts are delayed to 2040. In light of these results we argue that the window of opportunity for reaching the 2 °C objective with a credible chance of success is rapidly closing during the present decade. Further delay in finding a climate agreement critically undermines the credibility of the objective.  相似文献   

A Dasymetric Map of Maine Lobster Trap Distribution Using Local Knowledge     

Christopher E. Brehme  Patrice McCarron  Heather Tetreault 《The Professional geographer》2013,65(1):98-109

As coastlines face increased development pressure, it is important to have the best available spatial information on coastal activities, including commercial fishing. This article describes the creation of a fine-scale spatial representation of lobster fishing activity along the Maine coast of the United States using a combination of participatory geographic information systems (GIS) and dasymetric mapping methods. These methods are employed here to support data collection from a large number of active lobster harvesters while maintaining individual privacy. The resulting representation of the fishery is designed as a planning tool for identifying potential interactions between marine resources and human activities.  相似文献   

Fluid escape features as relevant players in the enhancement of seafloor stability?     

Vincent Riboulot  Patrice Imbert  Antonio Cattaneo  Michel Voisset 《地学学报》2019,31(6):540-548

Fluid migration within the sedimentary column contributes significantly to slope failure and pockmark formation and can be an effective triggering mechanism to generate submarine landslides. Pockmarks are thus commonly listed among geohazards. Contrary to these accepted notions, we propose here an alternative view of pockmarks with an example from the Eastern Niger Submarine Delta: Pockmarks and associated chimneys may increase or modify the shear strength of sedimentary layers and locally enhance seafloor stability. The analysis of two 3D seismic volumes shows that a landslide deposit divides into two branches around a cluster of three pockmark chimneys, interpreted to impede its further development. The morphological characteristics of a slide constrained by fluid seepage features show the potential role of fluid escape in marine sediment strengthening.  相似文献