Bayesian estimation of seismic hazard for two sites in Switzerland     

Erik Rüttener  Juan José Egozcue  Dieter Mayer-Rosa  Stephan Mueller 《Natural Hazards》1996,14(2-3):165-178

Seismic hazard analysis is based on data and models, which both are imprecise and uncertain. Especially the interpretation of historical information into earthquake parameters, e.g. earthquake size and location, yields ambiguous and imprecise data. Models based on probability distributions have been developed in order to quantify and represent these uncertainties. Nevertheless, the majority of the procedures applied in seismic hazard assessment do not take into account these uncertainties, nor do they show the variance of the results. Therefore, a procedure based on Bayesian statistics was developed to estimate return periods for different ground motion intensities (MSK scale).Bayesian techniques provide a mathematical model to estimate the distribution of random variables in presence of uncertainties. The developed method estimates the probability distribution of the number of occurrences in a Poisson process described by the parameter . The input data are the historical occurrences of intensities for a particular site, represented by a discrete probability distribution for each earthquake. The calculation of these historical occurrences requires a careful preparation of all input parameters, i.e. a modelling of their uncertainties. The obtained results show that the variance of the recurrence rate is smaller in regions with higher seismic activity than in less active regions. It can also be demonstrated that long return periods cannot be estimated with confidence, because the time period of observation is too short. This indicates that the long return periods obtained by seismic source methods only reflects the delineated seismic sources and the chosen earthquake size distribution law.  相似文献   

Probability distribution of eigenspectra and eigendirections of a twodimensional,symmetric rank two random tensor     

Peiliang Xu  Erik Grafarend 《Journal of Geodesy》1996,70(7):419-430

Let there be given a twodimensional symmetric rank two tensor of random type (examples:strain, stress) which is either directly observed or indirectly estimated from observations by an adjustment procedure. Under the assumption of normalityof tensor components we compute the joint probability density functionas well as the marginal probability density functionsof its eigenspectra (eigenvalues) and eigendirections (orientation parameters). Due to the nonlinearity of the relation between eigenspectra-eigendirections and the random tensor components, via the inverse nonlinear error propagationbiases and aliases of their first and centralized second moments (mean value, variance-covariance) are expressed in terms of Jacobianand Hessianmatrices. The joint probability density function and the first and second moments thus form the fundamental of hypothesis testing and qualify control of eigenspectra (eigenvalues, principal components) and eigendirections (orientation parameters, eigenvectors, principial direction) of a twodimensional, symmetric rank two random tensor.  相似文献   

Palaeoclimatic studies in South Shetland Islands,Antarctica, based on numerous stratigraphic variables in lake sediments     

Svante Björck  Hannelore Håkansson  Siv Olsson  Lena Barnekow  Jan Janssens 《Journal of Paleolimnology》1993,8(3):233-272

The hitherto longest found lake sediment sequence on Byers Peninsula, Livingston Island, South Shetland Islands, was analysed with respect to lithology, chronology, diatoms, Pediastrum, pollen and spores, mosses, mineralogy, and sediment chemistry. During the ca. 5000 year long development the sediments were influenced by frequent tephra fall-outs. This volcanic impact played a major role in the lake's history during two periods, 4700–4600 and 2800–2500 BP, but was of importance during the lake's entire history with considerable influence on many of the palaeoenvironmentally significant indicators. The large and complex data set was analysed and zonated with different types of multivariate analysis. This resulted in a subdivision of the sequence into 8 time periods and 21 variables. Redundancy analysis (RDA) of this data set, both without and with the tephra periods, and with 4–6 of the variables as explanatory environmental variables, reveal that climatic/environmental signals are detectable. The palaeoclimatic picture that emerged out of the tephra noise suggests that the first 100 years were characterized by mild, humid conditions. This was followed by a less mild and humid climate until ca. 4000 BP when a gradual warming seems to have started, coupled with increased humidity. These mild and humid conditions seem to have reached an optimum slightly after 3000 BP. At ca. 2500 BP a distinct climatic deterioration occurred with colder and drier conditions and long seasons with ice cover. This arid, cold phase probably reached its optimum conditions at ca. 1500 BP, when slightly warmer conditions might have prevailed for a while. Except for the modern sample with rather mild climate, the last 1400 years seem to have been fairly arid and cold, and the effects of the frequent volcanic activity during this period is only vaguely seen in the records.  相似文献   

Temperature fluctuations in interstellar dust grains     

Per A. Aannestad  Scott J. Kenyon 《Astrophysics and Space Science》1979,65(1):155-166

Temperature fluctuations in interstellar dust grains caused by absorption of ultraviolet photons are discussed. Temperature probability distributions are presented for various assumptions about the grain specific heat and far infrared emissivity. Grains smaller than or about 0.01 may suffer large temperature fluctuations and would spend most of their time at very low temperatures. The equilibrium temperature is not a good measure for most average temperatures of such grains. It is shown that, although small grains spend only a small fraction of their time at the higher temperatures, the emitted far infrared spectrum is significantly shifted towards shorter wavelengths than predicted for grains assumed to be at the equilibrium temperature.Invited contribution to the Proceedings of a Workshop onThermodynamics and Kinetics of Dust Formation in the Space Medium held at the Lunar and Planetary Institute, Houston, 6–8 September, 1978.  相似文献   

Interstellar clouds and the formation of stars     

Hannes Alfvén  Per Carlqvist 《Astrophysics and Space Science》1978,55(2):487-509

Part I gives a survey of the drastic revision of cosmic plasma physics which is precipitated by the exploration of the magnetosphere throughin situ measurements. The pseudo-plasma formalism, which until now has almost completely dominated theoretical astrophysics, must be replaced by an experimentally based approach involving the introduction of a number of neglected plasma phenomena, such as electric double layers, critical velocity, and pinch effect. The general belief that star light is the main ionizer is shown to be doubtful; hydromagnetic conversion of gravitational and kinetic energy may often be much more important.In Part II the revised plasma physics is applied to dark clouds and star formation. Magnetic fields do not necessarily counteract the contraction of a cloud; they may just as well pinch the cloud. Magnetic compression may be the main mechanism for forming interstellar clouds and keeping them together.Part III treats the formation of stars in a dusty cosmic plasma cloud. Star formation is due to an instability, but it is very unlikely that it has anything to do with the Jeans instability. A reasonable mechanism is that the sedimentation of dust (including solid bodies of different size) is triggering off a gravitationally assisted accretion. A stellesimal accretion analogous to the planetesimal accretion leads to the formation of a star surrounded by a very low density hollow in the cloud. Matter falling in from the cloud towards the star is the raw material for the formation of planets and satellites.The study of the evolution of a dark cloud leads to a scenario of planet formation which is reconcilable with the results obtained from studies based on solar system data. This means that the new approach to cosmical plasma physics discussed in Part I logically leads to a consistent picture of the evolution of dark clouds and the formation of solar systems.  相似文献   

Single frequency processing of Ørsted GPS radio occultation measurements     

Georg Bergeton Larsen  Stig Syndergaard  Per Høeg  Martin Bjært Sørensen 《GPS Solutions》2005,9(2):144-155

The Global Positioning System (GPS) radio occultation measurements obtained using the TurboRogue GPS receiver on the Danish satellite Ørsted have been processed using the single frequency method. Atmospheric profiles of refractivity and temperature are derived and validated against numerical weather prediction data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF). Results from the Ørsted GPS measurement campaign in February 2000 indicate that the single frequency method can provide retrievals with accuracy comparable to that of using two frequencies. From comparisons between measured dry temperature profiles and corresponding dry temperature profiles derived from ECMWF analysis fields, we find a mean difference of less than 0.5 K and a standard deviation of 2–4 K between 500 and 30 hPa in height. Above 30 hPa the impact of the ionosphere becomes more dominant and more difficult to eliminate using the single frequency method, and the results show degraded accuracy when compared to previous analysis results of occultation data from other missions using the dual frequency method. At latitudes less than 40° (denoted low latitudes), the standard deviation is generally smaller than at latitudes higher than 40° (denoted high latitudes). A small temperature bias is observed centered at 200 hPa for low latitudes and at 300 hPa for high latitudes. This indicates that the ECMWF analyses do not adequately resolve the tropopause temperature minimum. In the lowest part of the troposphere an observed warm bias is thought to be due to erroneous tracking of the GPS signal in cases of atmospheric multipath propagation.  相似文献   

Laboratory Studies Of Wind Stress Over Surface Waves   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

B. Mete Uz  Mark A. Donelan  Tetsu Hara  Erik J. Bock 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2002,102(2):301-331

Simultaneous laboratory observations of wind speed, wind stress, and surfacewind-wave spectra are made under a variety of wind forcing patterns using cleanwater as well as water containing an artificial surfactant. Under typical experimentalconditions, more than half of the total stress is supported by the wave-induced stressrather than by the surface viscous stress. When the surfactant reduces the shortwind-wave spectra, the wind stress also decreases by as much as 20–30% at agiven wind speed. When the wind forcing is modulated in time, the wind stresstends to be higher under decreasing wind than under increasing wind at a givenwind speed, mainly because the response of short wind-wave spectra to varyingwind forcing is delayed in time. These examples clearly demonstrate that therelationship between the wind speed and the wind stress can be significantlymodified if the surface wave field is not in equilibrium with the wind forcing.Next, we examine whether the wind stress is estimated accurately if the wave-inducedstress by all surface wave components is explicitly evaluated by linear superpositionand is added to the surface viscous stress. It is assumed that the surface viscous stressis uniquely related to the wind speed, and that the wind input rate is determined by thelocal, reduced turbulent stress rather than the total stress. Our wind stress estimatesincluding the wave contributions agree well with observed wind stress values, evenif the surface wave field is away from its equilibrium with the wind in the presenceof surface films and/or under time-transient wind forcing. These observations stronglysuggest that the wind stress is accurately evaluated as a sum of the wave-induced stressand the surface viscous stress. At very high winds, our stress estimates tend to be lowerthan the observations. We suspect that this is because of the enhancement of wind stressover very steep (or breaking) short wind-waves.  相似文献   

A Stabilizing Dynamical Influence in the Deep Mantle due to the Radiative Thermal Conductivity and a high temperature at the Core-Mantle Boundary     

Erik O. Sevre  Fabien Dubuffet  David A. Yuen  Emma S. G. Rainey 《Visual Geosciences》2002,7(1):1-4

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Towards New Swedish Recommendations for Cautious Perimeter Blasting     

F. Ouchterlony  M. Olsson  I. Bergqvist 《Fragblast: International Journal for Blasting and Fragmentation》2002,6(2):235-261

A Swedish table of blast damage depths has, in one form or other, been in use since the late-1970s. Its history and the underlying theory are described. New experimental and theoretical findings that point out a number of shortcomings in the table and the underlying theory are presented and discussed. A revised version of the blast damage table was recently introduced in conjunction with new but incomplete recommendations for cautious perimeter blasting. The new table leaves the difficult task of taking into account factory like decoupling, water in the borehole, the rock properties, type of initiation, charge length and the actual bit diameter to the user. This paper discusses different ways of doing this, based on the experimental findings and a recent formula for the prediction of the lengths of radial cracks behind the half-casts. The material presented in this paper is meant to supplement and extend the new Swedish recommendations for cautious perimeter blasting of tunnels, shafts, pits and road cuts.  相似文献   

Methodology for construction, calibration and validation of a national hydrological model for Denmark   总被引：13，自引：0，他引：13  

Hans Jrgen Henriksen  Lars Troldborg  Per Nyegaard  Torben Obel Sonnenborg  Jens Christian Refsgaard  Bjarne Madsen 《Journal of Hydrology》2003,280(1-4):52-71

An integrated groundwater/surface water hydrological model with a 1 km² grid has been constructed for Denmark covering 43,000 km². The model is composed of a relatively simple root zone component for estimating the net precipitation, a comprehensive three-dimensional groundwater component for estimating recharge to and hydraulic heads in different geological layers, and a river component for streamflow routing and calculating stream–aquifer interaction. The model was constructed on the basis of the MIKE SHE code and by utilising comprehensive national databases on geology, soil, topography, river systems, climate and hydrology. The present paper describes the modelling process for the 7330 km² island of Sjælland with emphasis on the problems experienced in combining the classical paradigms of groundwater modelling, such as inverse modelling of steady-state conditions, and catchment modelling, focussing on dynamic conditions and discharge simulation. Three model versions with different assumptions on input data and parameter values were required until the performance of the final, according to pre-defined accuracy criteria, model was evaluated as being satisfactory. The paper highlights the methodological issues related to establishment of performance criteria, parameterisation and assessment of parameter values from field data, calibration and validation test schemes. Most of the parameter values were assessed directly from field data, while about 10 ‘free’ parameters were subject to calibration using a combination of inverse steady-state groundwater modelling and manual trial-and-error dynamic groundwater/surface water modelling. Emphasising the importance of tests against independent data, the validation schemes included combinations of split-sample tests (another period) and proxy-basin tests (another area).  相似文献