Integrating Uncertainty Theories with GIS for Modeling Coastal Hazards of Climate Change     

Peter J. Cowell  Thomas Q. Zeng 《Marine Geodesy》2003,26(1):5-18

Prediction of coastal hazards due to climate change is fraught with uncertainty that stems from complexity of coastal systems, estimation of sea level rise, and limitation of available data. In-depth research on coastal modeling is hampered by lack of techniques for handling uncertainty, and the available commercial geographical information systems (GIS) packages have only limited capability of handling uncertain information. Therefore, integrating uncertainty theory with GIS is of practical and theoretical significance. This article presents a GIS-based model that integrates an existing predictive model using a differential approach, random simulation, and fuzzy set theory for predicting geomorphic hazards subject to uncertainty. Coastal hazard is modeled as the combined effects of sea-level induced recession and storm erosion, using grid modeling techniques. The method is described with a case study of Fingal Bay Beach, SE Australia, for which predicted responses to an IPCC standard sea-level rise of 0.86 m and superimposed storm erosion averaged 12 m and 90 m, respectively, with analysis of uncertainty yielding maximum of 52 m and 120 m, respectively. Paradoxically, output uncertainty reduces slightly with simulated increase in random error in the digital elevation model (DEM). This trend implies that the magnitude of modeled uncertainty is not necessarily increased with the uncertainties in the input parameters. Built as a generic tool, the model can be used not only to predict different scenarios of coastal hazard under uncertainties for coastal management, but is also applicable to other fields that involve predictive modeling under uncertainty.  相似文献   

Letter to the editor     

Peter G. Wells 《Marine environmental research》1980,3(4):315-318

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Circulation over the continental shelf in the northern Gulf of Mexico   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

J. Carter Ohlmann  P. Peter Niiler 《Progress in Oceanography》2005,64(1):45-81

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The weakening role of science in the management of groundfish off the east coast of Canada     

Shelton  Peter A. 《ICES Journal of Marine Science》2007,64(4):723-729

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Trace element diagenesis in pyrite-rich sediments of the Achterwasser lagoon, SW Baltic Sea     

Florian Scholz  Thomas Neumann 《Marine Chemistry》2007,107(4):516-532

The early diagenesis of trace elements (V, Cr, Co, Cu, Zn, As, Cd, Ba, U) in anoxic sediments of the Achterwasser, a shallow lagoon in the non-tidal Oder estuary in the Baltic Sea, was investigated in the context of pyrite formation. The dissolved major redox parameters show a two-tier distribution with transient signals in the occasionally re-suspended fluid mud layer (FM) and a permanently established diagenetic sequence in the sediment below. Intense microbial respiration leads to rapid depletion of O₂ within the uppermost mm of the FM. The reduction zones of Mn, Fe and sulfate overlap in the FM and in the permanently anoxic sediment section which appears to be a typical feature of estuarine sediments, under low-sulfate conditions. Degrees of pyritization (DOP) range from 50% in the FM to remarkably high values > 90% at 50 cm depth. Pyrite formation at the sediment surface is attributed to the reaction of Fe-monosulfides with intermediate sulfur species via the polysulfide pathway. By contrast, intense pyritization in the permanently anoxic sediment below is attributed to mineral growth via adsorption of aqueous Fe-sulfide complexes onto pyrite crystals which had originally formed in the surface layer.The studied trace elements show differential behavior patterns which are closely coupled to the diagenetic processes described above: (i) Zn, Cu and Cd are liberated from organic matter in the thin oxic layer of the sediment and diffuse both upwards across the sediment/water boundary and downwards to be trapped as monosulfides, (ii) V, Cr, Co and As are released during reductive dissolution of Mn- and Fe-oxyhydroxides, (iii) U removal from pore water occurs concomitantly to Fe reduction in the FM and is attributed to reduction of U(VI) to U(IV), (iv) the Ba distribution is controlled by reductive dissolution of authigenic barite in the sulfate reduction zone coupled with upward diffusion and re-precipitation. The incorporation of trace elements into pyrite is most intense for Co, Mn and As, intermediate for Cu and Cr and little to negligible for U, Zn, Cd, V and Ba. The observed trend is largely in agreement with previous studies and may be explained with differing rates for ligand exchange. Slow and fast ligand exchange and thus precipitation kinetics are also displayed by downcore increasing (Mn, Cr, Co and As) or constantly low (Zn, Cu, Cd) pore water concentrations. The downward increasing degrees of trace metal pyritization (DTMP) for Co, Cu, Zn and As are, in analogy to pyrite growth, assigned to adsorption of sulfide complexes or As oxyanions onto preexisting pyrite minerals.  相似文献   

Source regions for recruitment of Calanus finmarchicus to Georges Bank: evidence from molecular population genetic analysis of mtDNA     

Ann Bucklin  Thomas D. Kocher 《Deep Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Oceanography》1996,43(7-8)

Molecular population genetic analysis has provided evidence that the copepod, Calanus finmarchicus, of the Labrador Current, Gulf of St Lawrence, Scotian Shelf, Gulf of Maine, and Georges Bank constitute a single, interbreeding population. The DNA sequence of a 350 base pair portion of the mitochondrial large subunit (16S) ribosomal RNA (rRNA) gene was determined for a total of 72 individuals collected in 1992, and 110 individuals collected in 1993 from these regions. There was significant heterogeneity in haplotype frequencies among the samples collected in 1992, but this heterogeneity did not resolve into regional patterns. The only regional differences seen were between pooled samples of the western N. Atlantic and those of the Norwegian Sea. There were no significant differences in haplotype frequencies among the samples collected in 1993, and fewer haplotypes were observed in these samples. Intraspecific molecular variation was typical of other marine species: there were 29 haplotypes among the 182 individuals sequenced. The frequency distribution of the haplotypes was highly skewed: 128 individuals shared one haplotype and 19 individuals were unique. There were 24 variable sites among the 350 bases sequenced; estimated nucleotide diversity was 0.0042. The genetic character of C. finmarchicus populations in the western N. Atlantic was stable over time in that three of the haplotypes (including the most abundant) occurred in both 1992 and 1993. However, haplotype frequencies differed significantly between the two years. The lack of regional structure in the 1992 samples and the genetic homogeneity of samples collected in 1993 across the domain from the Labrador Current to the Gulf of St Lawrence to Georges Bank and the Gulf of Maine indicated that there is significant gene flow across this region. The persistent genetic pattern suggests that the Gulf of St Lawrence may be an important source region for recruitment of C. finmarchicus to Georges Bank. Determination of zooplankton dispersal patterns within high gene flow species will provide information that may not be determined by conventional oceanographic analyses.  相似文献   

Aryl hydrocarbon hydroxylase activity in a population of brown bullhead (Ictalurus nebulosus) environmentally exposed to polycyclic hydrocarbons     

Jodon Traci Anne  Paul C. Baumann  Peter F. Landrum 《Marine environmental research》1988,24(1-4)

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Morphology and tectonics of the Romanche Transform and its environs     

R. C. Searle  M. V. Thomas  E. J. W. Jones 《Marine Geophysical Researches》1994,16(6):427-453

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The role of sex change, growth and mortality in Pandalus population dynamics and management     

Fu  Caihong; Quinn  Terrance J.  II; Shirley  Thomas C. 《ICES Journal of Marine Science》2001,58(3):607-621

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On the radiated noise of the autosub autonomous underwater vehicle   总被引：1，自引：2，他引：1  

Griffiths  Gwyn; Enoch  Peter; Millard  Nicholas W. 《ICES Journal of Marine Science》2001,58(6):1195-1200

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