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991.
Yanina L. Romero J. Bessembinder N. C. van de Giesen F. H. M. van de Ven 《Climatic change》2011,106(3):393-405
The Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) has published the KNMI’06 climate scenarios in 2006. These scenarios
give the possible states of the climate in The Netherlands for the next century. Projections of changes in precipitation were
made for a time scale of 1 day. The urban drainage sector is, however, more interested in projections on shorter time scales.
Specifically, time scales of 1 h or less. The aim of this research is to provide projections of precipitation at these shorter
time scales based on the available daily scenarios. This involves an analysis of climate variables and their relations to
precipitation at different time scales. On the basis of this analysis, one can determine a numeric factor to translate daily
projections into shorter time scale projections. 相似文献
992.
Exploring high-end scenarios for local sea level rise to develop flood protection strategies for a low-lying delta—the Netherlands as an example 总被引:4,自引:1,他引:3
Caroline A. Katsman A. Sterl J. J. Beersma H. W. van den Brink J. A. Church W. Hazeleger R. E. Kopp D. Kroon J. Kwadijk R. Lammersen J. Lowe M. Oppenheimer H. -P. Plag J. Ridley H. von Storch D. G. Vaughan P. Vellinga L. L. A. Vermeersen R. S. W. van de Wal R. Weisse 《Climatic change》2011,109(3-4):617-645
Sea level rise, especially combined with possible changes in storm surges and increased river discharge resulting from climate change, poses a major threat in low-lying river deltas. In this study we focus on a specific example of such a delta: the Netherlands. To evaluate whether the country’s flood protection strategy is capable of coping with future climate conditions, an assessment of low-probability/high-impact scenarios is conducted, focusing mainly on sea level rise. We develop a plausible high-end scenario of 0.55 to 1.15 m global mean sea level rise, and 0.40 to 1.05 m rise on the coast of the Netherlands by 2100 (excluding land subsidence), and more than three times these local values by 2200. Together with projections for changes in storm surge height and peak river discharge, these scenarios depict a complex, enhanced flood risk for the Dutch delta. 相似文献
993.
V. Palastanga G. van der Schrier S. L. Weber T. Kleinen K. R. Briffa T. J. Osborn 《Climate Dynamics》2011,36(5-6):973-987
The role of a reduction in the Atlantic meridional overturning and that of a persistently negative North Atlantic Oscillation in explaining the coldness of the European Little Ice Age (LIA) has been assessed in two sets of numerical experiments. These experiments are performed using an intermediate complexity climate model and a full complexity GCM. The reduction in the Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) of ca. 25% is triggered by a conventional fresh-water hosing set-up. A persistently negative NAO winter circulation, at NAO-index value ?0.5, is imposed using recently developed data-assimilation techniques applicable on paleoclimatic timescales. The hosing experiments lead to a reduction in oceanic meridional heat transport and cooler sea-surface temperatures. Next to a direct cooling effect on European climate, the change in ocean surface temperatures feedback on the atmospheric circulation modifying European climate significantly. The data-assimilation experiments showed a reduction of winter temperatures over parts of Europe, but there is little persistence into the summer season. The output of all model experiments are compared to reconstructions of winter and summer temperature based on the available temperature data for the LIA period. This demonstrates that the hypothesis of a persistently negative NAO as an explanation for the European LIA does not hold. The hosing experiments do not clearly support the hypothesis that a reduction in the MOC is the primary driver of LIA climate change. However, a reduction in the Atlantic overturning might have been a cause of the European LIA climate, depending on whether there is a strong enough feedback on the atmospheric circulation. 相似文献
994.
Mxolisi Excellent Shongwe R. G. Graversen G. J. van Oldenborgh B. J. J. M. van den Hurk F. J. Doblas-Reyes 《Climate Dynamics》2011,36(5-6):1055-1066
Autumn 2006 was extraordinarily mild in many parts of Europe. Near-surface temperatures were more than three standard deviations above the 1961?C1990 climatology. Even accounting for global warming, this event was far outside the probability density function of previous observations or climate model simulations. To investigate the mechanisms behind this event, the energy-budget for Autumn 2006 in Europe is estimated. Atmospheric energy-transport convergence over Europe is calculated and compared with the net energy flux at the top of the atmosphere as well as at the earth??s surface. The central North-Atlantic Ocean constituted the major source of energy. Here, the release of both sensible and latent heat was anomalously high. Atmospheric circulation played a crucial role by transporting the excess energy into Europe. Of this energy excess, dry-static energy was larger than the latent part, partly due to an additional contribution derived from a conversion of latent energy to sensible heat, which occurred upstream of the study area in the eastern Atlantic. In Europe, surface turbulent-energy fluxes into the atmosphere respond to atmospheric energy-transport convergence and are accordingly suppressed due to the anomalously high temperature and humidity content of the overlying air. The net outflow of radiational energy to space is anomalously high but not sufficient to offset the large positive anomaly of energy found over Europe. Even though the relative humidity was near its normal values in Europe, the specific humidity was considerably higher than usual. The high water-vapour content induced a local radiative positive feedback, increasing the opacity of the atmosphere to long-wave radiation. This appears to have significantly contributed to the extreme event. Atmospheric circulation played a crucial role in sustaining this feedback loop. 相似文献
995.
Peter S.K. Knappett Alice Layton Larry D. McKay Daniel Williams Brian J. Mailloux M.R. Huq M.J. Alam Kazi Matin Ahmed Yasuyuki Akita Marc L. Serre Gary S. Sayler Alexander van Geen 《Ground water》2011,49(1):53-65
The goal of this study was to test hollow‐fiber ultrafiltration as a method for concentrating in situ bacteria and viruses in groundwater samples. Water samples from nine wells tapping a shallow sandy aquifer in a densely populated village in Bangladesh were reduced in volume approximately 400‐fold using ultrafiltration. Culture‐based assays for total coliforms and Escherichia coli, as well as molecular‐based assays for E. coli, Bacteroides, and adenovirus, were used as microbial markers before and after ultrafiltration to evaluate performance. Ultrafiltration increased the concentration of the microbial markers in 99% of cases. However, concentration factors (CF = post‐filtration concentration/pre‐filtration concentration) for each marker calculated from geometric means ranged from 52 to 1018 compared to the expected value of 400. The efficiency was difficult to quantify because concentrations of some of the markers, especially E. coli and total coliforms, in the well water (WW) collected before ultrafiltration varied by several orders of magnitude during the period of sampling. The potential influence of colloidal iron oxide precipitates in the groundwater was tested by adding EDTA to the pre‐filtration water in half of the samples to prevent the formation of precipitates. The use of EDTA had no significant effect on the measurement of culturable or molecular markers across the 0.5 to 10 mg/L range of dissolved Fe2+ concentrations observed in the groundwater, indicating that colloidal iron did not hinder or enhance recovery or detection of the microbial markers. Ultrafiltration appears to be effective for concentrating microorganisms in environmental water samples, but additional research is needed to quantify losses during filtration. 相似文献
996.
Accurate estimates of groundwater recharge are essential for effective management of groundwater, especially when supplies are limited such as in many arid and semiarid areas. In the Hebei Plain, China, water shortage is increasingly restricting socioeconomic development, especially for agriculture, which heavily relies on groundwater. Human activities have greatly changed groundwater recharge there during the past several decades. To obtain better estimates of recharge in the plain, five representative sites were selected to investigate the effects of irrigation and water table depth on groundwater recharge. At each site, a one‐dimensional unsaturated flow model (Hydrus‐1D) was calibrated using field data of climate, soil moisture, and groundwater levels. A sensitivity analysis of evapotranspirative fluxes and various soil hydraulic parameters confirmed that fine‐textured surface soils generally generate less recharge. Model calculations showed that recharge on average is about 175 mm/year in the piedmont plain to the west, and 133 mm/year in both the central alluvial and lacustrine plains and the coastal plain to the east. Temporal and spatial variations in the recharge processes were significant in response to rainfall and irrigation. Peak time‐lags between infiltration (rainfall plus irrigation) and recharge were 18 to 35 days in the piedmont plain and 3 to 5 days in the central alluvial and lacustrine plains, but only 1 or 2 days in the coastal plain. This implies that different time‐lags corresponding to different water table depths must be considered when estimating or modeling groundwater recharge. 相似文献
997.
van der Wal D Forster RM Rossi F Hummel H Ysebaert T Roose F Herman PM 《Marine pollution bulletin》2011,62(1):99-108
An experiment was performed to test an alternative dredging strategy for the Westerschelde estuary. Clean sand dredged from the navigation channel was disposed seawards of an eroding intertidal flat in order to modify morphology and hydrodynamics, improving the multi-channel system with ecologically productive shallow water habitat. Five years of intensive monitoring revealed that part of the disposed sediment moved slowly towards the flat, increasing the very shallow subtidal and intertidal area, as planned. The sand in the impact zone became gradually finer after disposal, possibly due to reduced current velocities. Nevertheless, no changes in macrobenthic biomass, density, species richness and composition were detected in the subtidal zone, also demonstrating rapid macrobenthic recovery. In the intertidal zone, no ecological effects could be revealed superimposed on trends associated with long-term sediment fining. Thus, despite morphological success and absence of detected negative ecological impacts of the experiment, new beneficial habitat was not created. 相似文献
998.
An integrated field data-modelling approach is employed to investigate relationships between the wavelength of tidal sand waves and four environmental parameters: tidal current amplitude, water depth, tidal ellipticity and median grain size. From echo sounder data at 23 locations on the Dutch continental shelf, the average wavelengths of observed sand waves are determined and compared with the wavelengths obtained with a process-based model. The latter describes the initial formation of these bedforms due to feedbacks between the tidal current and the erodible bed and uses environmental parameters for the 23 locations as input. Good agreement between observed and modelled wavelengths is found if the bottom stress experienced by tidal currents is adequately quantified. Model results show that the wavelength of sand waves increases with increasing water depth, tidal ellipticity and grain size (coarse sand), whilst it decreases with increasing tidal current amplitude and grain size (fine sand). Due to the limited number of stations and the fact that all four parameters change from location to location, the modelled relationships are only partly supported by the field observations. 相似文献
999.
Sean A. McKenna Jaideep RayYoussef Marzouk Bart van Bloemen Waanders 《Advances in water resources》2011,34(5):617-626
Truncated Gaussian fields provide a flexible model for defining binary media with dispersed (as opposed to layered) inclusions. General properties of excursion sets on these truncated fields are coupled with a distance-based upscaling algorithm and approximations of point process theory to develop an estimation approach for effective conductivity in two-dimensions. Estimation of effective conductivity is derived directly from knowledge of the kernel size used to create the multiGaussian field, defined as the full-width at half maximum (FWHM), the truncation threshold and conductance values of the two modes. Therefore, instantiation of the multiGaussian field is not necessary for estimation of the effective conductance. The critical component of the effective medium approximation developed here is the mean distance between high conductivity inclusions. This mean distance is characterized as a function of the FWHM, the truncation threshold and the ratio of the two modal conductivities. Sensitivity of the resulting effective conductivity to this mean distance is examined for two levels of contrast in the modal conductances and different FWHM sizes. Results demonstrate that the FWHM is a robust measure of mean travel distance in the background medium. The resulting effective conductivities are accurate when compared to numerical results and results obtained from effective media theory, distance-based upscaling and numerical simulation. 相似文献
1000.
We performed a series of experiments at high pressures and temperatures to determine the partitioning of a wide range of trace elements between ilmenite (Ilm), armalcolite (Arm) and anhydrous lunar silicate melt, to constrain geochemical models of the formation of titanium-rich melts in the Moon. Experiments were performed in graphite-lined platinum capsules at pressures and temperatures ranging from 1.1 to 2.3 GPa and 1300-1400 °C using a synthetic Ti-enriched Apollo ‘black glass’ composition in the CaO-FeO-MgO-Al2O3-TiO2-SiO2 system. Ilmenite-melt and armalcolite-melt partition coefficients (D) show highly incompatible values for the rare earth elements (REE) with the light REE more incompatible compared to the heavy REE ( 0.0020 ± 0.0010 to 0.069 ± 0.010 for ilmenite; 0.0048 ± 0.0023 to 0.041 ± 0.008 for armalcolite). D values for the high field strength elements vary from highly incompatible for Th, U and to a lesser extent W (for ilmenite: 0.0013 ± 0.0008, 0.0035 ± 0.0015 and 0.039 ± 0.005, and for armalcolite 0.008 ± 0.003, 0.0048 ± 0.0022 and 0.062 ± 0.03), to mildly incompatible for Nb, Ta, Zr, and Hf (e.g. 0.28 ± 0.05 and : 0.76 ± 0.07). Both minerals fractionate the high field strength elements with DTa/DNb and DHf/DZr between 1.3 and 1.6 for ilmenite and 1.3 and 1.4 for armalcolite. Armalcolite is slightly more efficient at fractionating Hf from W during lunar magma ocean crystallisation, with DHf/DW = 12-13 compared to 6.7-7.5 for ilmenite. The transition metals vary from mildly incompatible to compatible, with the highest compatibilities for Cr in ilmenite (D ∼ 7.5) and V in armalcolite (D ∼ 8.1). D values show no clear variation with pressure in the small range covered.Crystal lattice strain modelling of D values for di-, tri- and tetravalent trace elements shows that in ilmenite, divalent elements prefer to substitute for Fe while armalcolite data suggest REE replacing Mg. Tetravalent cations appear to preferentially substitute for Ti in both minerals, with the exception of Th and U that likely substitute for the larger Fe or Mg cations. Crystal lattice strain modelling is also used to identify and correct for very small (∼0.3 wt.%) melt contamination of trace element concentration determinations in crystals.Our results are used to model the Lu-Hf-Ti concentrations of lunar high-Ti mare basalts. The combination of their subchondritic Lu/Hf ratios and high TiO2 contents requires preferential dissolution of ilmenite or armalcolite from late-stage, lunar magma ocean cumulates into low-Ti partial melts of deeper pyroxene-rich cumulates. 相似文献