Sensitivity of physical parameterizations on prediction of tropical cyclone Nargis over the Bay of Bengal using WRF model   总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2  

P. V. S. Raju  Jayaraman Potty  U. C. Mohanty 《Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics》2011,113(3-4):125-137

Comprehensive sensitivity analyses on physical parameterization schemes of Weather Research Forecast (WRF-ARW core) model have been carried out for the prediction of track and intensity of tropical cyclones by taking the example of cyclone Nargis, which formed over the Bay of Bengal and hit Myanmar on 02 May 2008, causing widespread damages in terms of human and economic losses. The model performances are also evaluated with different initial conditions of 12?h intervals starting from the cyclogenesis to the near landfall time. The initial and boundary conditions for all the model simulations are drawn from the global operational analysis and forecast products of National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP-GFS) available for the public at 1° lon/lat resolution. The results of the sensitivity analyses indicate that a combination of non-local parabolic type exchange coefficient PBL scheme of Yonsei University (YSU), deep and shallow convection scheme with mass flux approach for cumulus parameterization (Kain-Fritsch), and NCEP operational cloud microphysics scheme with diagnostic mixed phase processes (Ferrier), predicts better track and intensity as compared against the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) estimates. Further, the final choice of the physical parameterization schemes selected from the above sensitivity experiments is used for model integration with different initial conditions. The results reveal that the cyclone track, intensity and time of landfall are well simulated by the model with an average intensity error of about 8?hPa, maximum wind error of 12?m?s^?1and track error of 77?km. The simulations also show that the landfall time error and intensity error are decreasing with delayed initial condition, suggesting that the model forecast is more dependable when the cyclone approaches the coast. The distribution and intensity of rainfall are also well simulated by the model and comparable with the TRMM estimates.  相似文献   

Geodynamics of NW India: Subduction, lithospheric flexure, ridges and seismicity     

M. Ravi Kumar  D. C. Mishra  B. Singh  D. Ch. Venkat Raju  M. Singh 《Journal of the Geological Society of India》2013,81(1):61-78

Spectral analysis of digital data of the Bouguer anomaly map of NW India suggests maximum depth of causative sources as 134 km that represents the regional field and coincides with the upwarped lithosphere — asthenosphere boundary as inferred from seismic tomography. This upwarping of the Indian plate in this section is related to the lithospheric flexure due to its down thrusting along the Himalayan front. The other causative layers are located at depths of 33, 17, and 6 km indicating depth to the sources along the Moho, lower crust and the basement under Ganga foredeep, the former two also appear to be upwarped as crustal bulge with respect to their depths in adjoining sections. The gravity and the geoid anomaly maps of the NW India provide two specific trends, NW-SE and NE-SW oriented highs due to the lithospheric flexure along the NW Himalayan fold belt in the north and the Western fold belt (Kirthar -Sulaiman ranges, Pakistan) and the Aravalli Delhi Fold Belt (ADFB) in the west, respectively. The lithospheric flexures also manifest them self as crustal bulge and shallow basement ridges such as Delhi — Lahore — Sagodha ridge and Jaisalmer — Ganganagar ridge. There are other NE-SW oriented gravity and geoid highs that may be related to thermal events such as plumes that affected this region. The ADFB and its margin faults extend through Ganga basin and intersect the NW Himalayan front in the Nahan salient and the Dehradun reentrant that are more seismogenic. Similarly, the extension of NE-SW oriented gravity highs associated with Jaisalmer — Ganganagar flexure and ridge towards the Himalayan front meets the gravity highs of the Kangra reentrant that is also seismogenic and experienced a 7.8 magnitude earthquake in 1905. Even parts of the lithospheric flexure and related basement ridge of Delhi — Lahore — Sargodha show more seismic activity in its western part and around Delhi as compared to other parts. The geoid highs over the Jaisalmer — Ganganagar ridge passes through Kachchh rift and connects it to plate boundaries towards the SW (Murray ridge) and NW (Kirthar range) that makes the Kachchh as a part of a diffused plate boundary, which, is one of the most seismogenic regions with large scale mafic intrusive that is supported from 3-D seismic tomography. The modeling of regional gravity field along a profile, Ganganagar — Chandigarh extended beyond the Main Central Thrust (MCT) constrained from the various seismic studies across different parts of the Himalaya suggests crustal thickening from 35-36 km under plains up to ～56 km under the MCT for a density of 3.1 g/cm³ and 3.25 g/cm³ of the lower most crust and the upper mantle, respectively. An upwarping of ～3 km in the Moho, crust and basement south of the Himalayan frontal thrusts is noticed due to the lithospheric flexure. High density for the lower most crust indicates partial eclogitization that releases copious fluid that may cause reduction of density in the upper mantle due to sepentinization (3.25 g/cm³). It has also been reported from some other sections of Himalaya. Modeling of the residual gravity and magnetic fields along the same profile suggest gravity highs and lows of NW India to be caused by basement ridges and depressions, respectively. Basement also shows high susceptibility indicating their association with mafic rocks. High density and high magnetization rocks in the basement north of Chandigarh may represent part of the ADFB extending to the Himalayan front primarily in the Nahan salient. The Nahan salient shows a basement uplift of ～ 2 km that appears to have diverted courses of major rivers on either sides of it. The shallow crustal model has also delineated major Himalayan thrusts that merge subsurface into the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT), which, is a decollment plane.  相似文献   

Textural and compositional relationships of rutile and chromite in Sittampundi anorthosite complex, Tamil Nadu     

P. V. Sunder Raju 《Journal of the Geological Society of India》2013,81(5):709-712

The anorthosite complexes and related rock types of the Indian Precambrian shield are primarily associated with either cratons or mobile belts. They were metamorphosed under amphibolites to granulite facies conditions. The major rock types are chromite-bearing meta-anorthosites, amphibolites, basic granulites, pink granites and gneisses. This study was carried out on chromitite bearing samples from Sittampundi layered anorthosite complex, Tamil Nadu, to evaluate the textural and compositional relationships of rutile and chromite. The pristine composition of the chromites is still preserved inspite of intense metamorphic and tectonic process. The rutiles are differentiated into isolated, clustered and exsolved rutile grains.  相似文献   

Predicting the Impact of Climate Change on Vulnerable Species in Gandaki River Basin,Central Himalayas     

Raju RAI  ZHANG Yili  LIU Linshan  Paras Bikram SINGH  Basanta PAUDEL  Bipin Kumar ACHARYA  Narendra Raj KHANAL 《资源与生态学报(英文版)》2022,13(2):173-185

Gandaki River Basin (GRB) is an important part of the central Himalayan region, which provides habitat for numerous wild species. However, climatic changes are making the habitat in this basin more vulnerable. This paper aims to assess the potential impacts of climate change on the spatial distributions of habitat changes for two vulnerable species, Himalayan black bear (Ursus thibetanus laniger) and common leopard (Panthera pardus fusca), using the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) species distribution model. Species occurrence locations were used along with several bioclimatic and topographic variables (elevation, slope and aspect) to fit the model and predict the potential distributions (current and future) of the species. The results show that the highly suitable area of Himalayan black bear within the GRB currently encompasses around 1642 km² (5.01% area of the basin), which is predicted to increase by 51 km² in the future (2050). Similarly, the habitat of common leopard is estimated as 3999 km² (12.19% of the GRB area), which is likely to increase to 4806 km² in 2050. Spatially, the habitat of Himalayan black bear is predicted to increase in the eastern part (Baseri, Tatopani and north from Bhainse) and to decrease in the eastern (Somdang, Chhekampar), western (Burtibang and Bobang) and northern (Sangboche, Manang, Chhekampar) parts of the study area. Similarly, the habitat of common leopard is projected to decrease particularly in the eastern, western and southern parts of the basin, although it is estimated to be extended in the southeastern (Bhainse), western (Harichaur and northern Sandhikhark) and north-western (Sangboche) parts of the basin. To determine the habitat impact, the environmental variables such as elevation, Bio 15 (precipitation seasonality) and Bio 16 (precipitation of wettest quarter) highly contribute to habitat change of Himalayan black bear; while Bio 13 (precipitation of wettest month) and Bio 15 are the main contributors for common leopard. Overall, this study predicted that the suitable habitat areas of both species are likely to be impacted by climate change at different altitudes in the future, and these are the areas that need more attention in order to protect these species.  相似文献   

Ground-motion Attenuation Relation from Strong-motion Records of the 2001 Mw 7.7 Bhuj Earthquake Sequence (2001–2006), Gujarat, India     

Prantik Mandal  N. Kumar  C. Satyamurthy  I. P. Raju 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2009,166(3):451-469

Predictive relations are developed for peak ground acceleration (PGA) from the engineering seismoscope (SRR) records of the 2001 M_w 7.7 Bhuj earthquake and 239 strong-motion records of 32 significant aftershocks of 3.1 ≤ M_w ≤ 5.6 at epicentral distances of 1 ≤ R ≤ 288 km. We have taken advantage of the recent increase in strong-motion data at close distances to derive new attenuation relation for peak horizontal acceleration in the Kachchh seismic zone, Gujarat. This new analysis uses the Joyner-Boore’s method for a magnitude-independent shape, based on geometrical spreading and anelastic attenuation, for the attenuation curve. The resulting attenuation equation is, where, Y is peak horizontal acceleration in g, M_w is moment magnitude, r_jb is the closest distance to the surface projection of the fault rupture in kilometers, and S is a variable taking the values of 0 and 1 according to the local site geology. S is 0 for a rock site, and, S is 1 for a soil site. The relation differs from previous work in the improved reliability of input parameters and large numbers of strong-motion PGA data recorded at short distances (0–50 km) from the source. The relation is in demonstrable agreement with the recorded strong-ground motion data from earthquakes of M_w 3.5, 4.1, 4.5, 5.6, and 7.7. There are insufficient data from the Kachchh region to adequately judge the relation for the magnitude range 5.7 ≤ M_w ≤ 7.7. But, our ground-motion prediction model shows a reasonable correlation with the PGA data of the 29 March, 1999 Chamoli main shock (M_w 6.5), validating our ground-motion attenuation model for an M_w6.5 event. However, our ground-motion prediction shows no correlation with the PGA data of the 10 December, 1967 Koyna main shock (M_w 6.3). Our ground-motion predictions show more scatter in estimated residual for the distance range (0–30 km), which could be due to the amplification/noise at near stations situated in the Kachchh sedimentary basin. We also noticed smaller residuals for the distance range (30–300 km), which could be due to less amplification/noise at sites distant from the Kachchh basin. However, the observed less residuals for the longer distance range (100–300 km) are less reliable due to the lack of available PGA values in the same distance range.  相似文献   

Biogeochemical investigation in south eastern Andhra Pradesh: the distribution of rare earths, thorium and uranium in plants and soils   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

K. K. Raju  A. N. Raju 《Environmental Geology》2000,39(10):1102-1106

The concentration of rare earth elements (REE), thorium and uranium were determined by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP−MS) in the plant species, Pterocarpus santalinus, P. marsupium and P. dalbergioides, and the soils on which they were growing. Higher concentrations of lanthanum (La), cerium (Ce) were observed in both plants and soils. Large amounts of thorium and uranium were found in the soil. In all tree species, the concentration of REEs were higher in the heartwood than the leaves. The heartwood of P. santalinus accumulated larger quantities of uranium (average concentration of 1.22 ppm) and thorium (mean value of 2.57 ppm) than the other two species. Received: 8 September 1999 · Accepted: 15 December 1999  相似文献   

Mapping of Coal Fire in Jharia Coalfield,India: a Remote Sensing Based Approach     

Anjali Singh  Ashwani Raju  Pitambar Pati  Narendra Kumar 《Journal of the Indian Society of Remote Sensing》2017,45(2):369-376

In India, Jharia Coalfield (JCF) has one of the densest congregations of surface-subsurface coal fires known worldwide. Systematic investigation and quantification of actual scenario of coal fires in JCF is always necessary to plan sustainable mining, industrial growth and environmental remediation on a long term basis. The present approach involves evaluation and mapping of coal fire using ASTER (Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection) data. Mapping reveals that the area located around western, eastern and south-eastern parts of JCF covering territories of Shatabdi opencast, Barora; Sijua opencast; Godhar colliery; Kusunda; Bokapahari; Kujama and Lodna are under intense fire with cumulative coverage of 6.23 km². The ASTER derived Land Surface Temperature (LST) of the anomalous areas have been subsequently validated by the field observations, carried out in JCF in February, 2010. The methodology adopted in the present study would provide precise evaluation and monitoring of coal fire in Jharia.  相似文献   

An effective ensemble classification framework using random forests and a correlation based feature selection technique          下载免费PDF全文

Dibyajyoti Chutia  Dhruba Kumar Bhattacharyya  Jaganath Sarma  Penumetcha Narasa Lakshmi Raju 《Transactions in GIS》2017,21(6):1165-1178

Accurate classification of heterogeneous land surfaces with homogeneous land cover classes is a challenging task as satellite images are characterized by a large number of features in the spectral and spatial domains. The identifying relevance of a feature or feature set is an important task for designing an effective classification scheme. Here, an ensemble of random forests (RF) classifiers is realized on the basis of relevance of features. Correlation‐based Feature Selection (CFS) was utilized to assess the relevance of a subset of features by studying the individual predictive ability of each feature along with the degree of redundancy between them. Predictability of RF was greatly improved by random selection of the relevant features in each of the splits. An investigation was carried out on different types of images from the Landsat Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (Landsat ETM+) and QuickBird sensors. It has been observed that the performance of the RF classifier was significantly improved while using the optimal set of relevant features compared with a few of the most advanced supervised classifiers such as maximum likelihood classifier (MLC), Navie Bayes, multi‐layer perception (MLP), support vector machine (SVM) and bagging.  相似文献   

Premonsoonal water characteristics and circulation in the east central Arabian Sea     

V. Ramesh Babu  J. S. Sastry  V. V. Gopalakrishna  D. V. Rama Raju 《Journal of Earth System Science》1991,100(1):55-68

The hydrographic structure in the east central Arabian Sea during premonsoon period undergoes significant temporal change in the thermal field of upper 100 m, wherein temperature rises by about 0–5°C on an average from May to June. The major contribution in increasing the surface layer temperature comes from surface heat exchange processes, while the horizontal advective process tends to remove the heat from the upper layer. The geostrophic flow patterns are similar from May to June in the major part of the study area while in the coastal areas off Goa a southerly current sets in June in response to coastal upwelling.  相似文献   

An evaluation of the undiscovered mineral resources of India based on the concept of unit regional value     

M. V. B. Raju  G. B. Misra 《Mathematical Geology》1991,23(6):841-852

Unit regional value (URV) and unit regional weight (URW) are relatively new concepts which are used to measure the intensity of the development of the mineral resources of any particular region. URV and URW of the mineral resources of India have been evaluated by sector, by commodity, as well as by state. The results are compared with values for the U.S.A. established by earlier workers and which can be taken as a standard for comparison with the mineral resources of other regions. URV of India, evaluated through the years 1898–1985, shows that the total mineral resources produced stands at $24.4 billion U.S. (deflated to 1967 value). Log URV of India lies below one standard deviation of the value for the states of the U.S. Like the U.S. India's major contribution to its URV is from fuels, but it is much less compared to that of the U.S. Next to fuels, metals, nonmetals, construction materials, and precious materials follow in that order. Except for two states, viz. Bihar and West Bengal, all other states are just below two standard deviations of the states of the U.S. The state of J&K is even much lower than the two standard deviations mark. It is concluded that India has a high potential for undiscovered mineral resources. However, this will require a large investment in exploration, on the order of Rs. 7760 crores, in the next few years.  相似文献