Experimental superensemble forecasts of tropical cyclones over the Bay of Bengal   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：2  

T. S. V. Vijaya Kumar  J. Sanjay  B. K. Basu  A. K. Mitra  D. V. Bhaskar Rao  O. P. Sharma  P. K. Pal  T. N. Krishnamurti 《Natural Hazards》2007,41(3):471-485

This study entails the implementation of an experimental real time forecast capability for tropical cyclones over the Bay of Bengal basin of North Indian Ocean. This work is being built on the experience gained from a number of recent studies using the concept of superensemble developed at the Florida State University (FSU). Real time hurricane forecasts are one of the major components of superensemble modeling at FSU. The superensemble approach of training followed by real time forecasts produces the best forecasts for tracks and intensity (up to 5 days) of Atlantic hurricanes and Pacific typhoons. Improvements in track forecasts of about 25–35% compared to current operational forecast models has been noted over the Atlantic Ocean basin. The intensity forecasts for hurricanes are only marginally better than the best models. In this paper, we address tropical cyclone forecasts over the Bay of Bengal for the years 1996–2000. The main result from this study is that the position and intensity errors for tropical cyclone forecasts over the Bay of Bengal from the multimodel superensemble are generally less than those of all of the participating models during 1- to 3-day forecasts. Some of the major tropical cyclones, such as the November 1996 Andhra Pradesh cyclone and October 1999 Orissa super cyclone were well handled by this superensemble approach. A conclusion from this study is that the proposed approach may be a viable way to construct improved forecasts of Bay of Bengal tropical cyclone positions and intensity.  相似文献   

Editorial     

U. C. Mohanty  Sethu Raman  D. V. Bhaskar Rao 《Natural Hazards》2007,42(2):253-255

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Modelling and inversion of single-ended refraction data from the shot gathers of multifold deep seismic reflection profiling—an approach for deriving the shallow velocity structure     

V. Vijaya Rao  Kalachand Sain  V. G. Krishna 《Geophysical Journal International》2007,169(2):507-514

A multifold crustal-scale deep seismic near-vertical reflection profile generates a large number of single-ended shot gathers, which provide redundant data sets because of overlapping coverage of the shallow refractors. We present an approach for deriving the shallow velocity structure by modelling and inversion of single-ended seismic refraction first arrival traveltime data. We apply this method to a data set acquired with a 12-km long spread with 100 m spacing of shots and receivers, of the Neoproterozoic Marwar basin in the NW Indian shield. The approach is shown to be quite successful for delineating the shallow refractor depths, steep dips and velocities, even in the absence of regular reverse refraction profiles. The study reveals two-layered sedimentary formations, Malani volcanics and a complicated basement configuration of the Marwar basin, and provides a measure of resolution and uncertainty of the estimated model parameters. A seismic section of the near-trace gather is found to be qualitatively consistent with the derived structural features of the basin. The relative highs and lows, observed in the Bouguer gravity profile, further corroborate the derived velocity model. The present approach can be especially useful in offshore areas and elsewhere, where the single-ended multifold seismic profiles are the only available data sets.  相似文献   

Numerical Simulation of Andhra Severe Cyclone (2003): Model Sensitivity to the Boundary Layer and Convection Parameterization   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

C. V. Srinivas  R. Venkatesan  D. V. Bhaskar Rao  D. Hari Prasad 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2007,164(8-9):1465-1487

The Andhra severe cyclonic storm (2003) is simulated to study its evolution, structure, intensity and movement using the Penn State/NCAR non-hydrostatic mesoscale atmospheric model MM5. The model is used with three interactive nested domains at 81, 27 and 9 km resolutions covering the Bay of Bengal and adjoining Indian Peninsula. The performance of the Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) and convective parameterization on the simulated features of the cyclone is studied by conducting sensitivity experiments. Results indicate that while the boundary layer processes play a significant role in determining both the intensity and movement, the convective processes especially control the movement of the model storm. The Mellor-Yamada scheme is found to yield the most intensive cyclone. While the combination of Mellor-Yamada (MY) PBL and Kain-Fritsch 2 (KF2) convection schemes gives the most intensive storm, the MRF PBL with KF2 convection scheme produces the best simulation in terms of intensity and track. Results of the simulation with the combination of MRF scheme for PBL and KF2 for convection show the evolution and major features of a mature tropical storm. The model has very nearly simulated the intensity of the storm though slightly overpredicted. Simulated core vertical temperature structure, winds at different heights, vertical winds in and around the core, vorticity and divergence fields at the lower and upper levels—all support the characteristics of a mature storm. The model storm has moved towards the west of the observed track during the development phase although the location of the storm in the initial and final phases agreed with the observations. The simulated rainfall distribution associated with the storm agreed reasonably with observations.  相似文献   

An Experiment Using the High Resolution Eta and WRF Models to Forecast Heavy Precipitation over India   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Y. V. Rama Rao  H. R. Hatwar  Ahmad Kamal Salah  Y. Sudhakar 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2007,164(8-9):1593-1615

In the present study using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) and Eta models, recent heavy rainfall events that occurred (i) over parts of Maharastra during 26 to 27 July, 2005, (ii) over coastal Tamilnadu and south coastal Andhra Pradesh during 24 to 28 October, 2005, and (iii) the tropical cyclone of 30 September to 3 October, 2004/Monsoon Depression of 2 to 5 October 2004, that developed during the withdrawal phase of the southwest monsoon season of 2004 have been investigated. Also sensitivity experiments have been conducted with the WRF model to test the impact of microphysical and cumulus parameterization schemes in capturing the extreme weather events. The results show that the WRF model with the microphysical process and cumulus parameterization schemes of Ferrier et al. and Betts-Miller-Janjic was able to capture the heavy rainfall events better than the other schemes. It is also observed that the WRF model was able to predict mesoscale rainfall more realistically in comparison to the Eta model of the same resolution.  相似文献   

Remote Sensing and Geographical Information System for canopy cover mapping     

Ndr Krishna  A K Maji  YVN Krishna Murthy  BSP Rao 《Journal of the Indian Society of Remote Sensing》2001,29(3):107-113

Availability of remote sensing data from earth observation satellites has made it convenient to map and monitor land use/land cover at regional to local scales. A land cover map is very critical for a various planning activities including watershed planning. The spectral and spatial resolutions are major constraints for mapping the crop resources at microlevel. The cropping pattern zones have been mapped using the false color composite, physiography, irrigation and toposheets. The IRS LISS-III data is classified into various categories depending on spectral reflectance from crop canopy and are overlaid on cropping zones map. The re-classified resultant map provides land use/land cover information including dominant cropping systems. The canopy cover is estimated monthly considering the crop calendar for the area.  相似文献   

福建省矿山开采引发的地质灾害及防治建议     

饶如龙  赵云华 《福建地质》2001,20(3):137-140

福建省矿产资源较丰富，各种规模矿山14000多座，为我省经济建设发挥了重要作用，由于粗放型开采，也引发了矿山地质灾害，造成多起伤亡事故和严重经济损失，同时引发社会安定问题。为此提出防治建议。  相似文献   

The Energetics of Asian Summer Monsoon     

P. L. S. Rao 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2001,158(5-6):965-988

—?In this paper, we examine the large-scale balances of kinetic energy, vorticity, angular momentum, heat and moisture over the Asian summer monsoon region. The five year (1986–1990) uninitialized daily analyses for the summer season comprising June, July and August (JJA), produced at the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) under the aegis of Tropical Ocean and Global Atmosphere (TOGA) have been considered to carry out the study.¶The following features characterize the Asian summer monsoon domain. It acts as the source of kinetic energy as well as vorticity, and sink of heat and moisture. Kinetic energy and vorticity are produced in the monsoon region and transported horizontally. On the contrary, heat and moisture are transported into the monsoon region. The zonal and meridional components of adiabatic generation of kinetic energy contribute to the production of kinetic energy over the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal, respectively. The horizontal advection of relative vorticity is balanced by sub-grid scale generation. The angular momentum generated due to pressure torque (east-west pressure gradient) is balanced by the flux convergence of omega momentum. Further, the angular momentum budget delineates that flux convergence of relative momentum is necessary to maintain the surface westerlies against the friction. The horizontal convergence of heat and moisture facilitates enhancement of diabatic heating, and also leads to the formation of diabatic heat sources, which are crucial to sustain the summer monsoon circulation.  相似文献   

滇西菲红超基性岩风化壳铂族元素地球化学行为   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

杨竹森  高振敏  罗泰义  陶琰  李红阳  饶文波 《矿物学报》2001,21(4):625-630

近年来在世界不同地区进行了风化过程中铂族元素的地球化学行为研究。作为中国西南部的第一个实例，本文研究了云南西部菲红超基性岩体上发育的红土风化剖面。矿物学和微量元素地球化学研究证明该风化壳是超基性岩风化的结果。文中详细讨论了风化壳的地质、矿物学、红土化和铂族元素地球化学特征。结果表明，风化壳的红土化程度不高，仍处于红色粘土阶段；风化壳上部的表层土壤带和铁质粘土带中铂族元素总量至少富集了3．57－7．87倍，其中Ru和Pd的富集程度较大,Ir的富集程度中等，Pt和Rh的富集程度较小，使得铂族元素的配分模式由基岩的Pt富集型转变为风化壳的Ru-Pt富集型，证明红土化过程中铂族元素发生了分异。  相似文献   

滇西上芒岗金矿床地质地球化学特征   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

李红阳  高振敏  杨竹森  罗泰义  饶文波  陶琰  高永丰 《矿物学报》2001,21(4):639-646

上芒岗金矿由下部原生卡林型和上部 红色粘土型金矿体所组成，赋矿地层为侏罗系勐戛组砂泥质岩、白云质灰岩和二叠系沙子坡组泥硅质灰岩、白云岩。北东向上芒岗断裂构造与不整合面和岩溶的复合控制了矿床和矿体。围岩蚀变以硅化（似碧玉岩化）、黄铁矿化、碳酸盐化和粘土化为主，并具有水平与垂向分带性。地球化学研究表明，蚀变与矿化岩石的稀土含量与未蚀变泥质灰岩基本一致，成矿溶液为富CI^－型和富SO4^2-型，爆裂温度为183－378℃，δ^34S=6.471‰-21.965‰，δ^18O=9.3‰-11.6‰，δD=-70‰--77‰，^206Pb/^204Pb=19.551-20.05,^207Pb/^204Pb=15.690-16.240,^208Pb/^204Pb=38.710=40.137。红色粘土型矿石的红土化作用只达到粘土阶段。  相似文献