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Mitigating the Effects of Climate Change on the Water Resources of the Columbia River Basin 总被引:5,自引:3,他引:5
Jeffrey T. Payne Andrew W. Wood Alan F. Hamlet Richard N. Palmer Dennis P. Lettenmaier 《Climatic change》2004,62(1-3):233-256
The potential effects of climate change on the hydrology and water resources of the Columbia River Basin (CRB) were evaluated using simulations from the U.S. Department of Energy and National Center for Atmospheric Research Parallel Climate Model (DOE/NCAR PCM). This study focuses on three climate projections for the 21st century based on a `business as usual' (BAU) global emissions scenario, evaluated with respect to a control climate scenario based on static 1995 emissions. Time-varying monthly PCM temperature and precipitation changes were statistically downscaled and temporally disaggregated to produce daily forcings that drove a macro-scale hydrologic simulation model of the Columbia River basin at 1/4-degree spatial resolution. For comparison with the direct statistical downscaling approach, a dynamical downscaling approach using a regional climate model (RCM) was also used to derive hydrologic model forcings for 20-year subsets from the PCM control climate (1995–2015) scenario and from the three BAU climate(2040–2060) projections. The statistically downscaled PCM scenario results were assessed for three analysis periods (denoted Periods 1–3: 2010–2039,2040–2069, 2070–2098) in which changes in annual average temperature were +0.5,+1.3 and +2.1 °C, respectively, while critical winter season precipitation changes were –3, +5 and +1 percent. For RCM, the predicted temperature change for the 2040–2060 period was +1.2 °C and the average winter precipitation change was –3 percent, relative to the RCM controlclimate. Due to the modest changes in winter precipitation, temperature changes dominated the simulated hydrologic effects by reducing winter snow accumulation, thus shifting summer streamflow to the winter. The hydrologic changes caused increased competition for reservoir storage between firm hydropower and instream flow targets developed pursuant to the Endangered Species Act listing of Columbia River salmonids. We examined several alternative reservoir operating policies designed to mitigate reservoir system performance losses. In general, the combination of earlier reservoir refill with greater storage allocations for instream flow targets mitigated some of the negative impacts to flow, but only with significant losses in firm hydropower production (ranging from –9 percent in Period1 to –35 percent for RCM). Simulated hydropower revenue changes were lessthan 5 percent for all scenarios, however, primarily due to small changes inannual runoff. 相似文献
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John A. Wood 《Geochimica et cosmochimica acta》2004,68(19):4007-4021
This study attempts to identify the astrophysical setting in which properties of the Ca,Al-rich inclusions (CAIs) found in chondritic meteorites are best understood. Importance is attached to the short time period in which most or all of the CAIs were formed (<∼0.5 Myr, corresponding to the observed dispersion of values of initial 26Al/27Al about the canonical value of ∼5 × 10−5), a constraint that has been overlooked. This period is dissimilar to the time scale of evolution of T Tauri stars, ∼10 Myr; it corresponds instead to the time scale of Class 0 and Class I young stellar objects, protostars as they exist during the massive infall of interstellar material that creates stars. The innermost portion of the sun’s rapidly accreting nebular disk, kept hot during that period by viscous dissipation, is the most plausible site for CAI formation. Once condensed, CAIs must be taken out of that hot zone rather promptly in order to preserve their specialized mineralogical compositions, and they must be transported to the radial distance of the asteroid belt to be available for accretion into the chondrites that contain them today. Though this paper is critical of some aspects of the x-wind model of CAI formation, something akin to the x-wind may be the best way of understanding this extraction and transport of CAIs. 相似文献
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This article provides an analysis of a wetland site in southern Illinois from presettlement to the present. The study area is part of the Cache River‐Cypress Creek Wetland, which has international importance, as recognized by the Ramsar Convention on Wetlands. Land‐cover data for 1807, 1938, and 1993 were created and analyzed with a geographic information system (GIS). Land‐use change by topographic setting (uplands, transitional, and bottomlands) and soil productivity was quantified and studied. Interviews with local experts informed this analysis. Results illustrate the complexity of environmental change and its driving forces. First, notable forest and swamp acreage was converted to cropland between 1807 and 1938 and, to a lesser degree, from 1938 to 1993. Second, there were land‐use variations by topographic region. Between 1807 and 1938, the largest transformation occurred in the uplands, with substantial acreage converted from forest to cropland. Between 1938 and 1993, however, agriculture decreased in the upland areas as hilly areas reverted to forest cover. At the same time, agriculture expanded in the bottomlands as this land was drained for farming. Third, there are interesting patterns within these categories of land‐use change, as soil productivity is an indicator of what lands were taken out of cropland and converted back to grassland and forest. 相似文献
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Mousumi Banerjee Jyotisankar Ray Nupur Adhikary Sandip Nandy C. Manikyamba Madhuparna Paul Dola Chakraborty Alireza Eslami 《Journal of the Geological Society of India》2016,88(2):245-255
Malangtoli volcanics of the Singhbhum craton of the eastern Indian shield is one of the important Proterozoic lava suites. Experimental studies on 1 atmosphere pressure constrain the parental magma type and temperature range of crystallization of the parent magma (deduced to be in the range of 1500°C to 1200°C). The experimental studies show that at 1500°C, plagioclase is the first phase to crystallize, followed by few opaques which join along with plagioclase at 1450°C. At subsequent lower temperature (1400°C-1300°C), plagioclase and opaque continue to crystallize. At 1250°C plagioclase and opaque still persist while pyroxene appears first and liquid (glass) still remains. Appearance of opaque minerals (magnetite and illmenite) at both ~1400°C and ~1300°C indicate oscillation of oxygen fugacity in the parent magma, petrographically documented by coarser phenocrysts as well as finer or peripheral tiny grains. Use of tectonic discrimination diagrams (based on discrimination factors F1-F2 and FeOt/MgO vs. TiO2) shows an island arc tholeiitic affinity for Malangtoli volcanic, suggests that the role of proto-plate convergence in Singhbhum architecture played an important role to build up Malangtoli volcanics during Proterozoic. 相似文献
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Megan L. Hendershot Jeremy G. Venditti Ryan W. Bradley Ray A. Kostaschuk Michael Church Mead A. Allison 《Sedimentology》2016,63(3):743-760
Current understanding of bedform dynamics is largely based on field and laboratory observations of bedforms in steady flow environments. There are relatively few investigations of bedforms in flows dominated by unsteadiness associated with rapidly changing flows or tides. As a consequence, the ability to predict bedform response to variable flow is rudimentary. Using high‐resolution multibeam bathymetric data, this study explores the dynamics of a dune field developed by tidally modulated, fluvially dominated flow in the Fraser River Estuary, British Columbia, Canada. The dunes were dominantly low lee angle features characteristic of large, deep river channels. Data were collected over a field ca 1·0 km long and 0·5 km wide through a complete diurnal tidal cycle during the rising limb of the hydrograph immediately prior to peak freshet, yielding the most comprehensive characterization of low‐angle dunes ever reported. The data show that bedform height and lee angle slope respond to variable flow by declining as the tide ebbs, then increasing as the tide rises and the flow velocities decrease. Bedform lengths do not appear to respond to the changes in velocity caused by the tides. Changes in the bedform height and lee angle have a counterclockwise hysteresis with mean flow velocity, indicating that changes in the bedform geometry lag changes in the flow. The data reveal that lee angle slope responds directly to suspended sediment concentration, supporting previous speculation that low‐angle dune morphology is maintained by erosion of the dune stoss and crest at high flow, and deposition of that material in the dune trough. 相似文献