A Pool-Based Model of the Spatial Distribution of Undiscovered Petroleum Resoufrces     

Haiyu Gao  Zhuoheng Chen  Kirk G. Osadetz  Peter Hannigan  Cameron Watson 《Mathematical Geology》2000,32(6):725-749

An approach is proposed to predict the spatial distributions of undiscovered petroleum resources. Each pool is parameterized as a marked-point. The independence chain of the Hastings algorithm is used to generate an appropriate structure for pool combinations in a play. Petroleum-bearing favorability estimated from geological observations is used to represent the sampling probabilities of pool locations. An objective function measuring the distance between characteristics of the realization and constraints is constructed from both the pool size distribution and entropy maximum criterion, in which the entropy criterion places all undiscovered pools in the most favorable positions. The geometrical convergence property of the proposed Hastings algorithm is presented. The method is illustrated by a case study from the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin.  相似文献   

The remnant of Nova Cassiopeiae 1993 (V705 Cassiopeiae)     

S. P. S. Eyres  M. F. Bode  T. J. O'Brien  S. K. Watson  R. J. Davis 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2000,318(4):1086-1092

We have detected radio emission from the remnant of V705 Cas, beginning 221 d after visual maximum. We follow the remnant from first detection while still optically thick through the turn-over to optically thin emission, and finally confirming the absence of emission due to expansion and fading by the end of 1998. While the emission is consistent with thermal bremsstrahlung, as seen in most previous novae, the small-scale structure shows two ridge-like features, which develop significantly from day 585 until our last detection on day 1544. While the development is fairly rapid, it is also much smoother than that seen in V1974 Cyg, in that we can follow individual features as they change over almost 1000 d. Our optical spectra unequivocally indicate some form of axial symmetry, as derived from the velocity structure. This is difficult to reconcile with the observed development in the radio images. We suggest a number of possible explanations.  相似文献   

Spatial and temporal variability of groundwater dynamics in a sub‐Mediterranean mountain catchment          下载免费PDF全文

N. Lana‐Renault  D. Regüés  P. Serrano  J. Latron 《水文研究》2014,28(8):3288-3299

The temporal and spatial dynamics of groundwater was investigated in a small catchment in the Spanish Pyrenees, which was extensively used for agriculture in the past. Analysis of the water table fluctuations at five locations over a 6‐year period demonstrated that the groundwater dynamics had a marked seasonal cycle involving a wetting‐up period that commenced with the first autumn rainfall events, a saturation period during winter and spring and a drying‐down period from the end of spring until the end of the summer. The length of the saturation period showed great interannual variability, which was mainly influenced by the rainfall and evapotranspiration characteristics. There was marked spatial variability in the water table, especially during the wetting‐up period, which could be related to differences in slope and drainage area, geomorphology, soil properties and local topography. Areas contributing to runoff generation were identified within the catchment by field mapping of moisture conditions. Areas contributing to infiltration excess runoff were correlated with former cultivated fields affected by severe sheetwash erosion. Areas contributing to saturation excess runoff were characterized by a marked spatial dynamics associated with catchment wetness conditions. The saturation spatial pattern, which was partially related to the topographic index, was very patchy throughout the catchment, suggesting the influence of other factors associated with past agricultural activities, including changes in local topography and soil properties. The relationship between water table levels and stream flow was weak, especially during the wetting‐up period, suggesting little connection between ground water and the hydrological response, at least at some locations. The results suggest that in drier and human‐disturbed environments, such as sub‐Mediterranean mountains, saturation patterns cannot be represented only by the general topography of the catchment. They also suggest that groundwater storage and runoff is not a succession of steady‐state flow conditions, as assumed in most hydrological models. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Nutrient enrichment and precipitation changes do not enhance resiliency of salt marshes to sea level rise in the Northeastern U.S.     

E. B. Watson  A. J. Oczkowski  C. Wigand  A. R. Hanson  E. W. Davey  S. C. Crosby  R. L. Johnson  H. M. Andrews 《Climatic change》2014,125(3-4):501-509

In the Northeastern U.S., salt marsh area is in decline. Habitat change analysis has revealed fragmentation, displacement of high marsh by low marsh species, and marsh drowning, while development of adjacent uplands limits upslope migration. Measures of marsh vegetation loss for eight sites in Rhode Island and New York between ca.1970 and 2011 indicate that substantial loss has occurred over past decades, with higher loss rates found for lower elevation salt marshes. Using inundation experiments, field surveys, and LiDAR datasets, we developed an elevation-productivity relationship for Spartina alterniflora specific to the U.S. Northeast, and located current salt marsh orthometric heights on this curve. We estimate that 87 % of Northeastern salt marshes are located at elevations where growth is limited by inundation. By manipulating water column nutrients, precipitation, and elevation, we further found that altered precipitation regime was associated with significant reductions in biomass, and that nutrient enrichment adversely impacts organic matter accumulation and peat formation. These results provide evidence that Northeastern U.S. marshes are vulnerable to the effects of accelerated sea level rise, and that neither precipitation changes, nor cultural eutrophication, will contribute positively to long-term salt marsh survival.  相似文献   

Policy incentives for carbon capture and storage technologies in Europe: A qualitative multi-criteria analysis     

Christoph von Stechow  Jim Watson  Barbara Praetorius 《Global Environmental Change》2011,21(2):346-357

In this paper, we compare different policy incentives for overcoming investment uncertainties that are typical for low-carbon technologies prior to their commercialisation, some of which may be attributable to market failures. The paper focuses on the particular case of carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies and conducts a qualitative multi-criteria analysis of different public policy support schemes for CCS demonstration to evaluate their suitability. The assessed schemes include mandatory CCS, emission performance standards and several different financial incentives (in addition to the European Union Emission Trading Scheme). Based on the available literature and on experience in the UK and Germany with promotion instruments for low-carbon technologies, the results of our analysis suggest that two alternative schemes, a CCS bonus incentive or a carbon dioxide (CO₂) price guarantee, perform best in comparison with the other assessed instruments. While they reduce the uncertainty of CCS investments in the face of low European Union Allowance prices, they also avoid significant adverse impacts on operational and investment decisions in electricity markets.  相似文献   

Estimating Reaction Rate Coefficients Within a Travel‐Time Modeling Framework     

R. Gong  C. Lu  W.‐M. Wu  H. Cheng  B. Gu  D. Watson  P.M. Jardine  S.C. Brooks  C.S. Criddle  P.K. Kitanidis  J. Luo 《Ground water》2011,49(2):209-218

A generalized, efficient, and practical approach based on the travel‐time modeling framework is developed to estimate in situ reaction rate coefficients for groundwater remediation in heterogeneous aquifers. The required information for this approach can be obtained by conducting tracer tests with injection of a mixture of conservative and reactive tracers and measurements of both breakthrough curves (BTCs). The conservative BTC is used to infer the travel‐time distribution from the injection point to the observation point. For advection‐dominant reactive transport with well‐mixed reactive species and a constant travel‐time distribution, the reactive BTC is obtained by integrating the solutions to advective‐reactive transport over the entire travel‐time distribution, and then is used in optimization to determine the in situ reaction rate coefficients. By directly working on the conservative and reactive BTCs, this approach avoids costly aquifer characterization and improves the estimation for transport in heterogeneous aquifers which may not be sufficiently described by traditional mechanistic transport models with constant transport parameters. Simplified schemes are proposed for reactive transport with zero‐, first‐, nth‐order, and Michaelis‐Menten reactions. The proposed approach is validated by a reactive transport case in a two‐dimensional synthetic heterogeneous aquifer and a field‐scale bioremediation experiment conducted at Oak Ridge, Tennessee. The field application indicates that ethanol degradation for U(VI)‐bioremediation is better approximated by zero‐order reaction kinetics than first‐order reaction kinetics.  相似文献   

Mercury in the Southern Ocean     

Daniel Cossa  Lars-Eric Heimbürger  Stephen R. Rintoul  Edward C.V. Butler  Andrew R. Bowie  Roslyn J. Watson 《Geochimica et cosmochimica acta》2011,75(14):4037-4052

We present here the first mercury speciation study in the water column of the Southern Ocean, using a high-resolution south-to-north section (27 stations from 65.50°S to 44.00°S) with up to 15 depths (0-4440 m) between Antarctica and Tasmania (Australia) along the 140°E meridian. In addition, in order to explore the role of sea ice in Hg cycling, a study of mercury speciation in the “snow-sea ice-seawater” continuum was conducted at a coastal site, near the Australian Casey station (66.40°S; 101.14°E). In the open ocean waters, total Hg (Hg_T) concentrations varied from 0.63 to 2.76 pmol L⁻¹ with “transient-type” vertical profiles and a latitudinal distribution suggesting an atmospheric mercury source south of the Southern Polar Front (SPF) and a surface removal north of the Subantartic Front (SAF). Slightly higher mean Hg_T concentrations (1.35 ± 0.39 pmol L⁻¹) were measured in Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) compared to Antarctic Intermediate water (AAIW) (1.15 ± 0.22 pmol L⁻¹). Labile Hg (Hg_R) concentrations varied from 0.01 to 2.28 pmol L⁻¹, with a distribution showing that the Hg_T enrichment south of the SPF consisted mainly of Hg_R (67 ± 23%), whereas, in contrast, the percentage was half that in surface waters north of PFZ (33 ± 23%). Methylated mercury species (MeHg_T) concentrations ranged from 0.02 to 0.86 pmol L⁻¹. All vertical MeHg_T profiles exhibited roughly the same pattern, with low concentrations observed in the surface layer and increasing concentrations with depth up to an intermediate depth maximum. As for Hg_T, low mean MeHg_T concentrations were associated with AAIW, and higher ones with AABW. The maximum of MeHg_T concentration at each station was systematically observed within the oxygen minimum zone, with a statistically significant MeHg_Tvs Apparent Oxygen Utilization (AOU) relationship (p < 0.001). The proportion of Hg_T as methylated species was lower than 5% in the surface waters, around 50% in deep waters below 1000 m, reaching a maximum of 78% south of the SPF. At Casey coastal station Hg_T and Hg_R concentrations found in the “snow-sea ice-seawater” continuum were one order of magnitude higher than those measured in open ocean waters. The distribution of Hg_T there suggests an atmospheric Hg deposition with snow and a fractionation process during sea ice formation, which excludes Hg from the ice with a parallel Hg enrichment of brine, probably concurring with the Hg enrichment of AABW observed in the open ocean waters. Contrastingly, MeHg_T concentrations in the sea ice environment were in the same range as in the open ocean waters, remaining below 0.45 pmol L⁻¹. The MeHg_T vertical profile through the continuum suggests different sources, including atmosphere, seawater and methylation in basal ice. Whereas Hg_T concentrations in the water samples collected between the Antarctic continent and Tasmania are comparable to recent measurements made in the other parts of the World Ocean (e.g., Soerensen et al., 2010), the Hg species distribution suggests distinct features in the Southern Ocean Hg cycle: (i) a net atmospheric Hg deposition on surface water near the ice edge, (ii) the Hg enrichment in brine during sea ice formation, and (iii) a net methylation of Hg south of the SPF.  相似文献   

Computer simulation of the structure and stability of forsterite surfaces     

G. W. Watson  P. M. Oliver  S. C. Parker 《Physics and Chemistry of Minerals》1997,25(1):70-78

The aim of this paper is to demonstrate that atomistic simulations can be used to evaluate the structure of mineral surfaces and to provide reliable data for forsterite surfaces up to a plane index of 2 using the code METADISE. The methods used to calculate the surface structure and energy which have more commonly been used to study ceramics are briefly explained as is a comparison with experimental data, most notable the crystal morphology. The predicted morphologies show that all the methods (Donnay-Harker, Attachment energies and equilibrium) show most of the surfaces that are expressed in observed crystals. The equilibrium morphology calculated from the relaxed surface energies is the only method which expresses the {201} surfaces and the {101} surfaces, which appear only upon relaxation. The more stable surfaces are shown to be those which have the highest surface density and more closely resemble close packed structures with highly coordinated surface ions and silicon as far from the surface as possible. The most stable surfaces the {100} which has alternating layers of MgO and SiO₂ terminating with an MgO layer. The structure is similar to the MgO {100} surfaces and has a similar energy (1.28?Jm^?2 compared to 1.20). The second most stable are the {201} which have a stepped surface topology, but is also compact with a relaxed surface energy of 1.56?Jm^?2. The results indicate that atomistic simulation is well suited to the prediction of surface structure and morphology although care must be taken in choosing potentials which model the structure and elastic properties accurately.  相似文献   

A Comparison of Field Techniques for Confirming Dense Nonaqueous Phase Liquids   总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2  

Terry W. Griffin  Kenneth W. Watson 《Ground Water Monitoring & Remediation》2002,22(2):48-59

Dense nonaqueous phase liquids (DNAPLs) are immiscible fluids with a specific gravity greater than, water. When present, DNAPLs present a serious and long-term source of continued ground water and soil contamination (Pankow and Cherry 1996). Accurate characterization and delineation of DNAPL in the subsurface is critical for evaluating restoration potential and for remedy design at a site. However, obtaining accurate and definitive direct evidence of DNAPL is difficult. A field study was recently performed comparing several approaches to DNAPL characterization at a site where anecdotal and limited direct evidence of DNAPL exists. The techniques evaluated included a three-dimensional high-resolution seismic survey, field screening of soil cores with a flame ionization detector (FID)/organic vapor analyzer (OVA), hydrophobic (Sudan IV) dye-impregnated reactive FLUTe® (Flexible Liner Underground Technologies) liner material in combination with Rotasonic drill cores, centrifuged soil with Sudan IV dye, ultraviolet light (UV) fluorescence, a Geoprobe® Membrane Interface Probe (MIP®), and phase equilibrium partitioning evaluations based on laboratory analysis of soil samples. Sonic drilling provided reliable continuous cores from which minor soil structures could be evaluated and screened with an OVA, The screening provided reliable preliminary data for identifying likely DNAPL zones and for selecting samples for further analyses. The FLUTe liner material provided the primary direct evidence of the presence of DNAPL and reliable information on the thickness and nature of its occurrence (i.e., pooled or ganglia). The MIP system provided good information regarding the subsurface lithology and rapid identification and delineation of probable DNAPL areas. The three-dimensional seismic survey was of minimal benefit to this study, and the centrifuging of samples with Sudan IV dye and the use of UV fluorescence provided no benefit. Results of phase equilibrium partitioning concentration calculations for soil samples (to infer the presence of DNAPL) were in good agreement with the site screening data. Additionally, screening data compared well with previous ground water data and supported using 1% of the pure phase solubility limit of Freon 113 (2 mg/L) as an initial means to define the DNAPL study area. Based on the results of this study, the preferred approach for identifying and delineating DNAPL in the subsurface is to initially evaluate ground water data and define an area where dissolved concentrations of the target analyte(s) approach 1% of the pure phase solubility limit. Within this study area, the MIP device is used to more specifically identify areas and lithologic zones where DNAPL may have accumulated. Core samples (either Rotasonic or Geoprobe) are then collected from zones where MIP readings are indicative of the presence of DNAPL. Soil samples from the free-product portions of the core(s) are then submitted to a laboratory for positive analyte identification. Soil analyses are then combined with site-specific geotechnical information (i.e., fraction organic carbon, soil bulk density, and porosity) and equilibrium partitioning algorithms used to estimate concentrations of organic contaminants in soil samples that would be indicative of free product. Used in combination, the soil analysis and the MIP records appear to provide accurate DNAPL identification and delineation.  相似文献   

An analysis of the spectra and light curve of Nova Centauri 1995     

James Yan Tse  J. B. Hearnshaw  P. Rosenzweig  E. Guzman  O. Escalona  A. C. Gilmore  P. M. Kilmartin  L. C. Watson 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2001,324(3):553-559

The light curve and spectra of Nova Centauri 1995 (V888 Cen) are analysed. The spectra were obtained a few days post-maximum. The nova is found to be a very fast nova, declining by 2 mag within about 5±2 d of maximum. The light curve shows strong oscillations in the transition region, of peak-to-peak amplitude about 1.5 mag and period 12–15 d. The light curve of Nova Centauri resembles closely that of Nova Aquilae 1918 (V603 Aql).
The early blue and red spectra obtained at Mt John show broad emission lines, many with P Cygni profiles. The absorption lines are found in two velocity systems at about −1765 and −3010 km s⁻¹, in respectively the principal and diffuse-enhanced stages of spectral development, as defined by McLaughlin. Nova Centauri has many Fe  ii lines in emission, indicating that it is a member of the Williams Fe  ii class of classical novae.  相似文献