Comparison between the indirect approach and kriging with samples of different support for estimation using samples of different length     

Marcel?Antonio?Arcari?BassaniEmail author  Jo?o?Felipe?Coimbra?Leite?Costa  Waleska?Campos?Guaglianoni  Ricardo?Hundelshaussen?Rubio 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2018,32(3):785-797

In this paper we compare two estimation methods to deal with samples of different support: (1) the indirect approach using accumulation and (2) kriging with samples of different support. These two methods were tested in a simple example. The estimates of the two methods were compared against a benchmark scenario. The benchmark consisted of kriging using a complete set of samples on the same support. The effects of the nugget effect, variogram range and type on the weight of long samples, the estimate, and the error variance were assessed. Kriging with samples of different support led to lower error variance and to estimates closer to the estimates of the benchmark scenario. Furthermore, in the case of spatially continuous attributes (low nugget effect), the indirect approach assigns greater weight to long samples than kriging with samples of different support. A cross validation study comparing the two methods with a database from a bauxite deposit was performed. The results of the cross validation study showed that kriging with samples of different support resulted in more precise estimates.  相似文献   

Comparing ARIMA and computational intelligence methods to forecast daily hospital admissions due to circulatory and respiratory causes in Madrid   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Ricardo?Navares  Julio?Díaz  Cristina?Linares  José?L.?AznarteEmail author 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2018,32(10):2849-2859

Anticipating future workloads in a hospital may be of capital importance in order to distribute resources and improve patient attention. In this paper, we tackle the problem of predicting daily hospital admissions in Madrid due to circulatory and respiratory cases based on biometeorological indicators. A range of forecasting algorithms were proposed covering four model families: ensemble methods, boosting methods, artificial neural networks and ARIMA. Experiments show how the last two obtain better results in average, demonstrating that the problem can be properly solved with both approaches. Furthermore, a recently proposed technique known as stacked generalization was also used to dynamically combine the predictions from the four models, finally improving the performance with respect to the individual models.  相似文献   

Cyclic tensile-compressive tests on thin concrete boundary elements with a single layer of reinforcement prone to out-of-plane instability     

Angelica Rosso  Lisandro A. Jiménez-Roa  João Pacheco de Almeida  Aydee Patricia Guerrero Zuniga  Carlos A. Blandón  Ricardo L. Bonett  Katrin Beyer 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2018,16(2):859-887

The growing need for residential housing in Latin American countries has led to the construction of reinforced concrete buildings with wall thicknesses as low as 8–10 cm. Such walls have typically only a single layer of vertical rebars and are therefore particularly susceptible to out-of-plane failure. In order to investigate the response of the corresponding wall boundary elements, twelve reinforced concrete members with a single layer of vertical rebars were tested under tension–compression cycles. The objective was to gain insight into the parameters governing wall instability and out-of-plane failure, namely the thickness, reinforcement ratio, and eccentricity of the longitudinal rebars with respect to the member axis. This paper summarises the results of the test program, where the specimens' response is analysed also at the global and local levels. The results show that the crack pattern has an important influence on the out-of-plane behaviour and the conditions leading to out-of-plane failure are described. Furthermore, the differences between members with a single layer of vertical rebars and members with two layers are discussed. The influence of the parameters considered in the experimental program is addressed, showing that sections with small thickness and large reinforcement content are more prone to out-of-plane failures. Finally, predictions given by existing models are compared to the new experimental data. The entire data set is publicly available.  相似文献   

Vertical structure of larval fish assemblages during diel cycles in summer and winter in the southern part of Bahía de La Paz, México     

Gerardo Aceves-Medina  Ricardo Saldierna-Martínez  Alejandro Hinojosa-Medina  Sylvia P.A. Jimnez-Rosenberg  Martín E. Hernndez-Rivas  Raúl Morales-vila 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》2008,76(4):889-901

The effect of environmental variables on the vertical structure of larval fish assemblages in a tropical coastal lagoon was analyzed. Ichthyoplankton samples were collected from the near-bottom and surface strata near the mouth of a subtropical lagoon during contrasting seasonal conditions of temperature, photoperiod, light intensity, and tidal heights. During summer, larval fish assemblages had high species richness (R) and were dominated by tropical species. During winter, assemblages had lower R values and were dominated by subtropical and temperate species. Vertical distribution patterns of the taxa were determined by the interaction of environmental variables and behavior of each species to maintain their position in a stratum in the water column, or to achieve vertical migrations induced by environmental stimuli that, in this case, were thermal gradient, column water stratification, and intensity of light. Depth position and vertical migration of fish larvae, coupled with the flood and ebb tide conditions, played an important role in their retention and displacement toward the lagoon. Fish larvae with distribution restricted to the inner part of the inlet, such as Achirus mazatlanus, Etropus sp., and several gobies, were more abundant in the near-bottom stratum during the ebb tide, allowing them to avoid exportation, whereas those that could spawn outside, but depended on the inlet as a nursery area, were more abundant near the surface during flood tide, such as Abudefduf troschelii and Stegastes rectifraenum.  相似文献   

Dissolved copper speciation behaviour during estuarine mixing in the San Simon Inlet (wet season,Galicia). Influence of particulate matter     

Juan Santos-Echeandia  Luis M. Laglera  Ricardo Prego  Constant M.G. van den Berg 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》2008

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Reconstruction of the prograde PT history of high-P migmatitic paragneisses via melt-reintegration approach and thermodynamic modelling (Allochthonous Complexes,NW Iberian Massif)     

Irene Novo-Fernández  Richard Albert  Ricardo Arenas  Antonio Garcia-Casco  Rubén Díez Fernández  Sonia Sánchez Martínez  Axel Gerdes  Christian De Capitani 《Journal of Metamorphic Geology》2020,38(6):629-653

The Upper Units of the allochthonous complexes of the NW Iberian Massif constitute a terrane with continental affinity. They represent the vestiges of a Cambrian magmatic arc developed in the periphery of Gondwana (West African Craton) which was involved in the Devonian Variscan collision, undergoing high-P, high-T metamorphism. This includes ultramafic rocks, high-P mafic rocks (eclogites and granulites) and high-P migmatitic paragneisses. The latter rocks show an extensive migmatization with the leucosomes oriented parallel to the regional foliation. The migmatitic paragneisses are composed of garnet, kyanite, biotite, quartz, plagioclase, K-feldspar, rutile and Ti-hematite. Thermodynamic modelling using the measured bulk composition in the NCKFMASTHO system indicates metamorphic peak conditions of ~15 kbar and ~800 to 835°C, followed by a significant cooling. The prograde evolution is assessed by means of a melt-reintegration approach, using the composition of the garnet and its inclusions. An appropriate composition of liquid is added to the measured bulk composition to emulate the pre-melting bulk composition. Modelling of this melt-reintegrated composition allows to identify a colder high-P episode below ~500°C. Zircon crystals extracted from the leucosomes show overgrowths crystallized from the partial melt at c. 389 Ma (U–Pb system). The P–T–t path proposed reveals a subduction of the peri-Gondwanan arc-derived section down to mantle depths. An isobaric heating stage occurred as a result of residence at great depths and/or inception of a transient oceanic basin at c. 395 Ma. The ensuing near-isothermal exhumation occurred due to the extension related to the inception of the basin, reaching the thermal peak shortly before c. 389 Ma. Subsequent cooling is related to the underthrusting of colder oceanic and transitional crust below the HP-HT Upper Units.  相似文献   

Isotopic composition of precipitation during strong El Niño–Southern Oscillation events in the Southeast Region of Brazil     

Vinícius dos Santos  Marcelo Dias de Oliveira  Jan Boll  Ricardo Snchez‐Murillo  Amauri Antonio Menegrio  Luiz Felippe Gozzo  Didier Gastmans 《水文研究》2019,33(4):647-660

Equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature variations interact with processes of atmospheric circulation, creating conditions for the occurrence of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). ENSO events represent the most important interannual phenomena affecting climate patterns worldwide and causing significant socio‐economic impacts. In the Brazilian territory, ENSO leads to an increase in drought episodes in the north‐eastern region and an increase in precipitation in the southern region, whereas the effects over the south‐east region are yet not well understood. The main goal of this study is to compare variations of isotopic composition in precipitation across the south‐east portion of the Brazilian territory during two very strong ENSO events: 1997–1998 (ENSO 1) and 2014–2016 (ENSO 2). Daily isotopic records, available from the Global Network of Isotopes in Precipitation database for ENSO 1, and samples collected during ENSO 2 were used to compare the influence of both events on the isotopic composition of precipitation. Seasonal variations indicated more depleted precipitation during the wet seasons (δ¹⁸O = ?5.4 ± 4.0‰) and enriched precipitation during the dry seasons (δ¹⁸O = ?2.8 ± 2.3‰). Observed rainfall variations were associated with atmospheric large‐scale processes and moisture transport from the Amazon region, whereas extreme values (enriched or depleted) appear to be associated with particular convective and stratiform precipitation events. Overall, more depleted isotopic composition of precipitation (δ¹⁸O = ?4.60‰) and higher d‐excess (up to +15‰) were observed during the dry season of ENSO 1 when compared with ENSO 2 dry season (δ¹⁸O‰ = ?2.80‰, d‐excess lower than +14‰). The latter is explained by greater atmospheric moisture content, particularly associated with recycling of transpiration fluxes from the Amazon region, during dry season of ENSO 1. No significant differences for δ¹⁸O and δ²H were observed during the wet season; however, d‐excess from ENSO 2 was greater than ENSO 1, due to the slightly greater atmospheric moisture content and very strong upward motion observed. Our findings highlight the opportunity that environmental isotopes offer towards understanding hydrometeorological processes, particularly, the evolution of extreme climatic events of global resonance such as ENSO.  相似文献   

The importance of and need for rapid hydrologic assessments in Latin America          下载免费PDF全文

Diego A. Riveros‐Iregui  Timothy P. Covino  Ricardo González-Pinzón 《水文研究》2018,32(15):2441-2451

Long‐term observations are critical in hydrology to understand the dynamics of biological and physicochemical processes involved in and affected by the flux of water. Long‐term observations have been employed to provide basic understanding of the water cycle (e.g., infiltration, evaporation, run‐off generation, and groundwater–surface water interactions), but they are lacking in hydrologically relevant regions such as the Andes Mountains, including alpine watersheds. Although the call for long‐term data acquisition in Latin America has been made, the establishment of long‐term data collection centres remains logistically challenging. This ever‐growing scientific gap hinders our understanding of differences and similarities in hydrological processes of tropical and temperate regions. Furthermore, technological advances such as in situ optical sensors for water quantity and quality remain cost‐prohibitive for both short and long deployment at most existing research sites in Latin America, restricting researchers pursuing research funding or developing meaningful, intersite comparisons and syntheses. Here, we emphasize the importance of and need for rapid assessments (i.e., field campaigns conducted over a few days) for improved hypothesis development and mechanistic understanding of hydrological dynamics in Latin America. We report on rapid assessments conducted in the high‐elevation mountains (>3,000 m) of Colombia. Our results highlight rapidly changing dynamics in nutrient retention potential and dissolved CO₂ (pCO₂), as well as highly variable spatial distribution of water quality parameters (N, C, P, Cl) in areas with varying land use. We present an initial examination of the effects of land‐use change on stream nutrient dynamics in one of the most biodiverse and threatened ecosystems on Earth. We conclude that rapid assessments not only are necessary but also represent a cost‐effective way to develop clear, testable hypotheses to advance a hydrologic research agenda in Latin America and work towards long‐term hydrological knowledge and information for use by other scientists.  相似文献   

Virtual organisation in the SIMDAT meteorological activity: a decentralised access control mechanism for distributed data     

Baudouin Raoult  Guillaume Aubert  Marta Gutiérrez  Cristina Arciniegas-Lopez  Ricardo Correa 《Earth Science Informatics》2009,2(1-2):63-74

The EU funded SIMDAT project is aimed at applying generic grid technology for the solution of complex application problems in several representative fields including automotive, aerospace, pharmaceutical and meteorology. To satisfy the requirements of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the WMO Information Systems (WIS), the partners in the meteorology activity within SIMDAT (ECMWF, Deutscher Wetterdienst, the UK Met office, EUMETSAT and Météo-France), have developed grid-enabled software that provides generic distributed access to distributed meteorological data repositories via web-based portals, through a series of nodes organized in a mesh network. However, granting access to such an infrastructure, especially considering its fully distributed nature, is a serious challenge and a risk to the security of the overall grid infrastructure. SIMDAT solves this problem by implementing a security model based on a decentralized fine-grained access control mechanism that federates data providers and security issues using the notion of “trust domains”. In this paper we highlight the main features of the SIMDAT grid application and describe its security model in detail.  相似文献   

Molecular composition and chemosystematic aspects of Cretaceous amber from the Amazonas,Araripe and Recôncavo basins,Brazil     

Ricardo Pereira  Ismar de Souza Carvalho  Bernd R.T. Simoneit  Débora de Almeida Azevedo 《Organic Geochemistry》2009,40(8):863-875

Amber occurrences in Brazil are rare. In this regard, the molecular composition of three such fossil resin samples from Brazilian Cretaceous sedimentary basins has been analyzed to determine the botanical origin of the resins. The samples were collected from the Amazonas (Alter do Chão Formation), Araripe (Santana Formation, Crato Member) and Recôncavo (Maracangalha Formation, Caruaçu Member) basins. The mono-, sesqui- and diterpenoids in the extracts were used as chemosystematic markers when compared with terpenoids in extant conifers. The compounds were mainly diterpenoids and their degradation products from the labdane, podocarpane, pimarane and isopimarane classes, in addition to paraffins, methoxyphenols and carboxylic acids. Tetracyclic diterpenoids such as phyllocladane, kaurenol and kauranol were also present. The biomarker compositions are certainly typical for conifers and, given the absence of triterpenoids and diterpenoids such as ozic acid, angiosperms can be excluded as a botanical source. The absence of phenolic diterpenoids (ferruginol, totarol) and their derivatives excludes podocarpaceous affinities for the ambers from the Amazonas and Araripe basins. The fossil records of the embedding sediments (e.g. Araucariaceae pollen and leaves) support the proposal of an Araucariacae origin for these ambers, but Cupressaceae and Cheirolepidiaceae cannot be excluded. On the other hand, the presence of phyllocladane and kaurane derivatives is evidence for Araucariaceae or Podocarpaceae origins for the amber from the Recôncavo basin, but Cupressaceae cannot be excluded.  相似文献